3rd straight UAC likely to come towards TN coast on monday

gopal666 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

UAC over west central Bay of Bengal likely to come towards chennai on monday evening.

Current synoptic factors that are favouring UAC .

1.As expected Madden Julian oscillation (MJO)  has entered in Indian ocean @phase 2 with good amplitude. MJO is helping UAC  by supplying moisture and more convective activity.

2.Southern oscillation index (SOI)  has  stabled and likely to increase in coming days. It is good for UAC..

3.UAC will be driven to Tamil nadu coast by mid level winds

4.vorticity has deepened @500,700hpa levels.

image

Due to UAC Andhra Pradesh has got good rains.

Rainfall impact in chennai and North tamil nadu.

Good rains would occur in chennai and NTN.

MJO @phase 2 results in good rains over NTN and SAP.

Yesterday some parts of chennai received rainfall due to UAC near Andhra was pumping good moisture over TN.

Good moisture available @500,700hpa levels.

Steering winds will be favorable for chennai to get heavy rains.

image

Nunga has missed rainfall from last 2 UAC’s. Hope Nunga shouldn’t miss rainfall from this UAC and it should get good rains.

Models are indicating that Low pressure over Arabian sea may  strengthen into cyclone in coming days. Lets see.

southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala on 5th June 2015.it will continue to progress towards whole India in coming days.

Overall chennai has excellent chances for rainfall.

Topic courtesy – Ameenbijli

1,183 thoughts on “3rd straight UAC likely to come towards TN coast on monday”

  3. Rsrao sir losing of convection and gaining of convection is a part of a system. So no worries. Old convection lost new fresh will develop for chennai 😀

    Reply

  5. 500,700,850mb vorticity further deepened and marching towards TN coast.
    Qnd latest mid level steering winds are favouring UAC to move towards tamil nadu coast

    Reply

  13. Due to Arabian sea circulation advancent of monsoons hepked….but Kerala missed the rains..no problem Kerala got plenty of premonsoon rains…coastal Karnataka getting heavy rains

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    • Yes! Convection rebuilding started vorticity @500,700mb levels nearing chennai!

      Reply

  23. Ameen, gud and energetic topic..hope the rains come from this uac for us..or for ur sake atleast..

    Reply

  24. The only factor helping Indian monsoon this year is positive Indian ocean diploe which is nullifying the Elnino effect…..and the skymet depending only on this factor for a good SWM……but my fear is that it may cause severe floods in north and draught in south India… Debatable???

    Reply

  25. Ameen,
    More than anything else, the keeness you show in contributing the daily topic is amazing. You seem to be ever ready , fully charged and say ” Hey, I’m willing” ..Kudos for the spirit shown.

    Reply

  30. As the Arabian sea system is developing into a major system, Is there any chance of it spoiling our UAC?

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  31. In machilli radar,there are strong rain bands influenced by the current UAC..but not in chennai..y?is UAC still near machilli?

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  35. 2D-gyric map model for Arabian I-95A:
    Arabian system (I-95A) if sustains enough strength then will cross the coast at SW-Pakistan at 65E,25.2N. If its a weaker system then it will move in similar direction and weaken in open waters of north-Arabian sea.

    Original latest satellite picture used for drawing 2D-gyric map model: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=-1

    2D-gyric map model: http://s21.postimg.org/xry6ak613/wm5ir.gif

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  37. Yet again IMD GFS comes in line with ECMWF s forecast for the Arabian Sea system ….king of medium range models !!!

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  38. CAPE values remains phenomenal all along tn ,s.ap coast…and also over north interior tn and s.interior ap

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  39. sel next few days we are going to get something. A special day too…..what do you feel

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    • yes pj.. ts frequency is likely to increase in coming days.. chennai,vellore,tiruvallur and s.ap regions may see above normal activity

      Reply

  41. Last time the same sunday (it was june 8th) the TP meet was organised and a UAC that night battered Chennai. Today another UAC is on the way

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  42. Many Many Happy Returns (சுதர்ஷன் மாறி சாயந்திரம் பர்த்டே இல்லைன்னு சொல்லாதேபா )

    Reply

  51. Slight NE movement of the Arabian Low can trigger very heavy rains In Coastal Karnataka and North Coastal Kerala and also many pop ups in Interior Karnataka.

    Reply

  52. ” The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea now lies over
    eastcentral Arabian sea and adjoining areas as a well marked low pressure area. Associated
    upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 4.5 km above mean sea level. It would intensify into a
    depression during next 24 hours”

    Reply

  58. Heavy rains in Hyderabad
    rainfall till 8:30am
    Uppal IT sez – 54 mm
    Begampet IMD – 30 mm
    Shamshaabad airport – 30 mm

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  63. On This Same Day Last Year It Was Saturday and Was Highest Temp Of Last Year…

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    • Soon they will dissipate it….
      Till now, the influx of moist air from mjo is more than that of the dry air from north and hence the system getting developed very slowly, but as the system moving north and the dry air influx will be more in proportion so it will start to hinder the development soon.
      At last no model can predict this cyclone.

      Reply

      • But GFS forecasts expects moist inflow to continue from SW all along.. It expects the high to remain far too west to directly pump dry air into the system’s inflow.. let’s see

      • Let us see…as GFS supercomputers take many more parameters as input.

  67. Pj sir current situation. Bulk of moisture available in chennai @your favourite levels i.e. 500hpa level

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  68. Ameen what has SOI and MJO has to do with only Chennai rains…..Why use such experts terms……!

    Reply

  69. Guys download earth null app. It is too good! Faster than browser earth null. Just Search ” earth wind” in play store

    Reply

  78. Heavy thunderstorms likely in central AP today, near Prakasam districts and such.

    Tomorrow, the trough line will pass right through N TN and S AP areas.. Heavy thunderstorms and widespread activity likely on Monday evening

    Reply

    • Those are jst scales/observational models/medium thro which thy get data not actual input variables

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      • yep…but derivation of the parameters is completely based on the model data assimilation techniques

  83. When compared to other models,ECMWF uses 3D and 4D Variational analysis is widely and it has much keen attention on
    The model orography
    The land-sea mask
    The sea surface temperature (SST)
    The albedo
    Aerosols
    The surface vegetation
    Snow cover
    Sea surface conditions
    Stratospheric processes

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  86. arb sea system influencing the w.coast rainfall.. they r missing the ws rainfall wich they normally get during onset .. going by the forecast w.coast offshore trough establishing only after 13th june… on the whole tis year onset is not a great start

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  88. Off shore trough to become active and host a UAC by 16th going by GFS… could be first major spell this SWM.

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  95. The King has roared again, Cherrapunji gets close to 2000 mm Rainfall in last 10 days

    in mm

    29.05.2015 – 152
    30.05.2015 – 112
    31.05.2015 – 121
    01.06.2015 – 542
    02.06.2015 – 181
    03.06.2015 – 54
    04.06.2015 – 3
    05.06.2015 – 0
    06.06.2015 – 410
    07.06.2015 – 340
    ==============
    Total – 1915 mm
    ==============

    Reply

  100. guess , Mumbai has to wait further because of the LPA. It will pull the moisture towards it and will make mumbai more hot.

    Reply