UAC over west central Bay of Bengal likely to come towards chennai on monday evening.
Current synoptic factors that are favouring UAC .
1.As expected Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has entered in Indian ocean @phase 2 with good amplitude. MJO is helping UAC by supplying moisture and more convective activity.
2.Southern oscillation index (SOI) has stabled and likely to increase in coming days. It is good for UAC..
3.UAC will be driven to Tamil nadu coast by mid level winds
4.vorticity has deepened @500,700hpa levels.
Due to UAC Andhra Pradesh has got good rains.
Rainfall impact in chennai and North tamil nadu.
Good rains would occur in chennai and NTN.
MJO @phase 2 results in good rains over NTN and SAP.
Yesterday some parts of chennai received rainfall due to UAC near Andhra was pumping good moisture over TN.
Good moisture available @500,700hpa levels.
Steering winds will be favorable for chennai to get heavy rains.
Nunga has missed rainfall from last 2 UAC’s. Hope Nunga shouldn’t miss rainfall from this UAC and it should get good rains.
Models are indicating that Low pressure over Arabian sea may strengthen into cyclone in coming days. Lets see.
southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala on 5th June 2015.it will continue to progress towards whole India in coming days.
Overall chennai has excellent chances for rainfall.
Topic courtesy – Ameenbijli