South West Monsoon arrives

IMD declared onset of SWM over Kerala yesterday. Conditions are favourable for further advancement into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, Karnataka; remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some parts of Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of central & north Bay of Bengal and southern parts of northeastern states during next 48 hours.

Chances of any rain for Chennai is very less, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out this weekend.

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1,648 thoughts on “South West Monsoon arrives

  1. Tibetan High is showing some signs of moving westwards towards its mean climatological position ….currently it lies ESE of its mean position centered around 100 E

  2. An Upper air circulation has formed over central Bay of Bengal.
    As per latest gfs model it is likely to intensify more and it is likely to come towards chennai on mon/tue.

    This UAC is getting good support from Madden Julian oscillation in Indian ocean @phase 2.

    southern oscillation index is in increasing trend which is good for our UAC.

    Steering winds @mid levels favors UAC to travel towards chennai.

    Convection is rebuilding over UAC.

    RAINFALL FORECAST
    I will be issuing rainfall forecast for chennai on Saturday evening i. e. Tomorrow evening.

  3. Like yesterday, T.S likely very close to chennai…but steering winds are very weak. Chennai’s chances will start from Sunday’s afternoon…

  4. OMG….as expected what great start for “Andhra-capitol Amravati’s” foundation stone puja/pray today morning at 8:00AM. Rain god on the way to attend puja/pray. Its really a good sign ๐Ÿ™‚

  5. Skymet rejects IMD forecast – not sure whether I can post here, but based on feed back can delete it

  6. Typical June day starts..with bright sun shine..& expecting TS to form in eveng..though the temp is less in chennai..the humid remains same..hot..

  7. Kathiri effects will be seen in June also..we need a strong TS with raining of nearly 1hr..will bring down the kathiri effect..until then we will feel the heat..

  8. past 4 days kea comments not showing in my mobile only old comments stick continue what reason? Please solve my problem.

  9. Omg…Machiillipatnan radar looks very good
    Intense rains lashing godaveri districts…
    Effect of uac…..really nice…..
    Soon it ll reach chennai

  10. I too hav a problem in mobile version of keaweather.if any new comment i hav to see i hav to reload the page..sometimes this problem arrivers…y?

    • When you open the mobile kea blog always it opens the place you exit last time….if u want to see latest posts u have to reload…then few latest posts are shown…..if you want to read all the posts go back to main page then choose the today’s topic…. Then all the posts are shown by keep pressing ..load more..

  11. Science publishes new NOAA analysis: Data show no recent slowdown in global warming

    A new study published online today in the journal Science finds that the rate of global warming during the last 15 years has been as fast as or faster than that seen during the latter half of the 20th Century. The study refutes the notion that there has been a slowdown or “hiatus” in the rate of global warming in recent years.

    The study is the work of a team of scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information* (NCEI) using the latest global surface temperature data.

    “Adding in the last two years of global surface temperature data and other improvements in the quality of the observed record provide evidence that contradict the notion of a hiatus in recent global warming trends,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “Our new analysis suggests that the apparent hiatus may have been largely the result of limitations in past datasets, and that the rate of warming over the first 15 years of this century has, in fact, been as fast or faster than that seen over the last half of the 20th century.”

    More Details – http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/noaa-analysis-journal-science-no-slowdown-in-global-warming-in-recent-years.html

  12. “Velayudham Sย ย – 27 minutes ago

    Chances of Rain between 6th and 11th for Chennai…. but not sure of quantity…. 1 or 2 days, it will be heavy”

    Heavy meaning?

  13. Guys don’t worry.. UAC will driven towards North tamil nadu coast!
    See mid level winds are guiding it to North tamil nadu coast
    As expected by me convection rebuilding
    Vorticity @all levels deepened further

  14. See all levels vorticity comes near to chennai
    As UAC slowly inching closer to chennai

  15. See moisture @500hpa tomorrow! 99%!TS will explode! Uac likely to come closer to chennai by tomorrow evening or monday evening

  16. Karaikudi pounded yesterday… Due to continuous lightening and monstrous winds, Heavy Damage reported…..

    PC-Dinamalar

  17. A cloudy morning here in chennai, let’s hope for some isolated ts atleast today as today is susa’s birthday

  18. Happy birthday to you Sudharsan. May this year bring lot of rain to chennai and lot of water in cauvery river

    • Cherrapunji Gets Tornado which is bigger than Monsterous Thunder Stroms.
      Even desert Gets Thunder and Lightnings why not Cherrapunji.

  19. Will cherrapunji get more than 100 km/hr winds. But we get. We get sea breeze but cherrapunji never get that in the life time

  20. EvenIf cherrapunji got more than 41cms of rain it is like chennai only and all the the water flows down to the plains and the ground water level is low and also water scarcity like chennai during win ter

  21. Only SW winds blowing through tamilnadu and BOB is giving rains to cherrapunji. If we have power to stop the winds then cherrapunji is a desert like atacama desert in chile.Cherrapunji will get only dry norherly winds

  22. A lot of discussion has taken place regarding Cherrapungi and Chennai in the last 15 min. I don’t know how all this started.

    All I said was Cherrapungi got chennai’s annual rainfall in last 10 days. Cherrapungi is king of swm. Chennai is king of summer.

  23. Without himalayas cherrapunji will not get more rains. If our eastern ghats are like himalayas and continous range we are also cheerapunji but nature has not provided that

  24. CAUSES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN CHERRAPUNJI.

    Cherrapunji receives rains from the Bay of Bengal arm of the Indian summer monsoon. The monsoon clouds fly unhindered over the plains of Bangladesh for about 400 km. Thereafter, they hit the Khasi Hills which rise abruptly from the plains to a height of about 1370 m above mean sea level within 2 to 5 km. The geography of the hills with many deep valleys channels the low-flying (150โ€“300 m) moisture-laden clouds from a wide area to converge over Cherrapunji. The winds push the rain clouds through these gorges and up the steep slopes. The rapid ascent of the clouds into the upper atmosphere hastens the cooling and helps vapours to condense. Most of Cherrapunji’s rain is the result of air being lifted as a large body of water vapour. The extreme amount of rainfall at Cherrapunji is perhaps the best-known feature of orographic rain in northeast India.

    Occasionally, cloudbursts can occur in one part of Cherrapunji while other areas may be totally or relatively dry, reflecting the high spatial variability of the rainfall. Atmospheric humidity is extremely high during the peak monsoon period.

    The major part of the rainfall at Cherrapunji can be attributed to the orographic features. When the clouds are blown over the hills from the south, they are funneled through the valley. The clouds strike Cherrapunjee perpendicularly and the low flying clouds are pushed up the steep slopes. It is not surprising to find that the heaviest rainfalls occur when the winds blow directly on the Khasi Hills.

    A notable feature of monsoon rain at Cherrapunji is that most of it falls in the morning. This could be partly due to two air masses coming together. During the monsoon months, the prevailing winds along the Brahmaputra valley generally blow from the east or the northeast, but the winds over Meghalaya are from the south. These two winds systems usually come together in the vicinity of the Khasi Hills. Apparently the winds that are trapped in the valley at night begin their upward ascent only after they are warmed during the day. This partially explains the frequency of morning rainfall. Apart from orographic features, atmospheric convection plays an important role during the monsoon and the period just preceding it.

  25. Dear Dinakar .. This is wat so called (>100kmph) THANE gave me…

    One good day biscuit packet- Rs 50, one litre milk packet- Rs. 80 …. Personally i bought after thane crossed by dec end… As a student bachelor, without any food anywhere, no transport, i was forced to leave to my native through tourist van for Rs.2000 (around 350 only in TNSTC)… I never expected cyclone after that experience…

  26. Happy to note that somehow so far managed to forget Chennai TS since focus turned to CHERRAPUNJI.- Thanks to KEA and apple and oranges!

  27. Paavam avaru…hereafter he vl never say that word…if anybody asks him where is Cherrapunji..he vl say..adhu Erodu pakkam Thoothukudi pakkam irukkunu solliduvaaru.. ๐Ÿ˜€

  28. I have a doubt… Whether Chinnakallar (coimbatore) s chirrapunji of TN … ????? Now a days dat station missing in IMD list.. No rain actually or deliberately removed…??

  29. Tamilnadu Rainfall till 8.30am Today in (mm)

    Andimadam – 66
    Vaiyampatty ( Trichy) – 60
    Kattumannarkoil – 58
    Sendurai – 55
    Nallur – 40
    Kadavur (Karur)- 39
    Lalpet – 37
    S.pudur (Sivaganga) – 36
    Manamadurai (Sivaganga) – 34
    Tiruverumbur – 32
    Lalgudi – 32
    Ponnamaravathi – 32
    Perundurai – 24
    Marungapuri – 32
    Nemili (Vellore ) – 30
    Mangalur – 22
    Viralimalai – 20
    Grand anaicut (Tanjore) -19
    Devakottai – 18
    Tirukoyilur – 18
    Vadippatti – 18
    Virudhachalam – 17
    Kandamangalam ( Villupuram) – 16
    Kumbakonam – 12
    Arimalam (Pudukottai) – 13
    Kammapuram – 12
    Nallur – 10
    Annagramam (Cuddalore) – 10

      • Yes IMD daily report Came.
        Tanjore records 2cm Kalai. I got this from other source.

      • CM sir … IMD reported manamadurai-5cm… may be different location near manamadurai.. ๐Ÿ™‚

      • Vallam is 3kms away from city!! Poor IMD somehow needs to look into this matter seriously! To whom I need to report regarding this? Any letter or mail will do?

      • Its not one or two days. On all days Mouli. I am seeing this since last year even on WS rainfall occasions

      • actually tanjore main RG will be near junction or temple .. u knw its apprx 10 km from vallam… so even if u complaint, they wont take i feel… They simply say even rf will differ within km.. ๐Ÿ™‚ Anything may true..

      • Its near temple as you say. But after noticing this for the past two years, I am telling this. It under reports by 50โ„… I hope somebody take this to the higher authorities and overhaul the RG

      • Ohh.. ok kalai.. yes you can.. Ask guidance from Experts and file a report.. ๐Ÿ™‚

      • Do we have Met Observatory offices in districts? If so, I can go in person and inform them. Or else, I need a mailer to higher authorities concerned.

      • Thanjavur city got more than 40cms until now. But the reality as per records is 30cms! Pathetic!

  30. Governments planning to supply gas from one end of the country to other end by pipelines….. But no one is thinking of supplying drinking water through pipelines across the nation…..as Dinagar expressed his anquish why can’t they plan to supply drinking water from Chirapunchji to chennai via bay

  31. last evening ts explosions over nw ,west,sw of chennai seen from NASA sat image .. mighty one was contributed by famous varadihpalem hills, and other by short ranges

    • if layman get some knowledge on iod,they will question why the same positive iod didnt helped wen the same combo resulted in worst famine?.. they shld b questioned wen they humiliate official dept

      • hello guest11k, i am not aware of their mutual influence,but v have seen the change in qbo phase wrt to enso phase . easterly phase coinciding with lanina, westerly phase with elnino is common . maybe the frequency of kelvin &er waves during a particular enso phase have an direct role in modulating the qbo phase

      • QBO increased from -24 to -12 in one month’s time. Its the highest gain in months time. Few experts saying that if the same increasing trend continues in QBO then current el nino can achieve super el nino status, but if it increases slowly then el nino will be of moderate intensity.

        What’s your take on this.

      • oh.. ” qbo influencing the intensity of elnino event” ..completely new to me and even interesting to hear that

      • “Definitely agree with the idea of a moderate Niรฑo, and also suspect it will strengthen a bit further as we complete the present oceanic KW cycle. However, I suspect it’ll hit a glass ceiling between August and October due to low-frequency IO forcing and the slow nature of the transitory QBO pulse.

        There’s a catch to all this, though, and it’s the inverse of 2014. We saw last year what a dominating -QBO/+EF/+Solar regimen could do to a developing Niรฑo circulation, regardless of the incredible inertial/oceanic priming in the form of the strongest/most persistent WWB/KW activity since 1998.
        Now, the upper atmospheric forcings are swinging back in the opposite direction. The outgoing QBO was/is by far the highest amplitude event ever recorded, at over three standard deviations above what would be considered normal shear stress in the tropopausal range. This has the consequence of delaying the transitory eddy reversal in the SAO domain (slows down the subsequent transition of the QBO in the lower levels, which is what really matters). So, the question is, how quickly does the +QBO/westerly shear stress reach the tropical tropopause, and how strong is this subsequent QBO?

        If it’s high amplitude +QBO that downwells quickly (unlikely), then we’re probably in for a super-Niรฑo with a NDJ peak. If it’s a strong +QBO that takes time to downwell (possible), then we’re probably in for a low-end strong Niรฑo with a JFM peak. If it’s a weak/moderate +QBO that takes time to downwell (statistically, this is the most likely outcome), then we probably end up with a typical/solid moderate Niรฑo with a flatter peak lasting from Sep/Oct until Jan/Feb.

        It should be noted, however, that the transitory shear stress/divergence within the QBO domain has remained at a record high amplitude, up until now at least, which I did not expect. If this continues, then scenario #2 might also be in the cards, in my opinion.”

        By WeatherPhil( Atmospheric Sciences Student)

        What your take on the above post.

      • i dont hav any expert comments on tis since i am not much into it..anyway as of now its very clear tat elnino likely to get matured by OND..few models expecting one of the strongest event. so it will b interesting to follow the behaviour in coming months

      • The interesting thing is that IMD considers QBO as one of the parameter(out of 16 parameters)when preparing SWM forecast. So we need to learn more about QBO and its effects on SWM and NEM.

      • Voice of skymet is heard more this year. I suspect something happening behind the screen. Expect some sort of government aid to them in near future.

  32. Today steering pattern is very good from nw to se, so all we need is Popups In the evening at nw

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