UAC rains might miss Chennai yet again

The expected rains from the UAC is most probably going to miss Chennai yet again. The wind confluence has moved north and too far away from us to impact. Central AP in Coastal area will see massive intense TS tomorrow.

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988 thoughts on “UAC rains might miss Chennai yet again

  1. Bangalore welcomes it’s first low moving monsoon clouds…..HI VARUNA DeVA welcome to you… And show mercy on us…

  2. UAC bands are 150 kms away from chennai at sea close to nelore, can we expect it will chennai by evening or we need to look for only evening TS

  3. Think monsoon has reached Bangalore! As Lakshmi says, quite a lot of low level clouds dropping into the city all of a sudden. A treat to watch. IMD will announce the onset in Bangalore today for sure!!

    • We won’t get heavy rains, precipitation will be in the form of medium drizzles and occasional showers if monsoon is strong in W Coast!

  4. I think we are having better steering pattern than yesterday but only worry factor is lack of moisture so any ts which enters within 70 km radius of chennai definitely gonna weaken like yesterday so better chennai has to wait

  5. IMD :

    REMARKS:
    ————–
    THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 30-32˚C, OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 100-120 KJ/CM2,
    LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS (20-30) X 10-5 SECOND-1,
    UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT (20-30)X10-5 SECOND-1,
    THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT (15-17)X10-5 SECOND-1
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS).
    UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 20˚N.
    THERE IS TROUGH IN WESTERLIES IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
    THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION LIES IN PHASE-2 WITH AMPLITUDE > 1 AND IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ABOVE SYNOPTIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
    THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 7 JUNE 2015.

  6. Pleasant Morning with good SW Breeze here in Karaikal and Some Cumulus Clouds under Formation.

  7. Storm to the north east of chennai is interacting with sea breeze front. So more popo will form south of the storm.

  8. Convection of arabian sea system is nicely wrapped up to give spiral structure and also mjo giving good support and hence it is expected to intensify into DD within next few hours I think

  9. Wind Confluence in a UAC is perfect for predicting rains. As expected, Intense TS formed.

  10. UAC to pound s.ap coast today and it will vanish and usual TS season ahead in next 48hrs.

  11. Finally uac rains bands going to enter 100 km radius…hope shar, North of chennai going to get something as per radar

  12. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH
    OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072230Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS
    TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
    WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
    LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
    FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
    AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS HEDGED
    SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS.
    UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
    (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
    IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTING THE DEEPENED CONVECTION. TC
    01A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-
    SOUTHEAST ORIENTED HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, A
    NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH
    WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND MODIFY THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUSING TC
    01A TO SLOW DOWN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER STR LOCATED TO
    THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
    ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
    OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
    UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, SLIGHTLY COOLER
    SSTS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.

  13. @disqus_zZ0gjej6QB:disqus
    Happy Birthday
    I Think This Your 1st Birthday In Our Blog
    Happy Birthday Again

  14. I can still see some school.kids blogging,are they addicted to kea blog skipping school or blogging from school silently?

      • You need permission from kea to blog here in school hours even though you took leave from school

    • even if it comes, no use…trust on evening thunderstorms after monsoon sets in. we may not get disappointed like this.

  15. Forgot UAC, once the SW winds become stronger ( After the arabian cyclone), we will get the usual thunder storms in the evening / night. By June 15 or so, we can expect good rainfall

    • June 15th is long we can expect swm winds to set in within 2-3 days after arabian cyclone moves north

      • Already the wind direction is SW over chennai skies , but very less speed. We need to have the rains started in Goa and above Goa regions in west coast. Those winds come down heavily and meet the bay-of-bengal streams at chennai latitude ( and then the magic TS’s start).

  16. Heavy rains in coastal AP.Some of the AWS recorded heavy rains .Initial AWS readings till
    8 30 am today
    Yerragondapalem – 140 mm
    Etcherla – 136 mm
    Srikakulam – 116 mm

  17. conditions are improving to the north of asbobaa.It will intensify at a better rate as it moves furthur northward but near the arabian coast conditions are not so favorable currently.

  18. this cyclone nonsense plaguing bay of bengal has caught up with arabian sea also. Nowadays arabian sea is launching so many cyclones. ofcourse useless cyclones. definite climate change result.

  19. for time being tis mid level ridge is steering the system… mid level trough is expected to alter the scenario in next 48 hrs and new ridge would take over the system

  20. Hyacinthe formed on January 15, 1980, to the northeast of Mauritius in the southern Indian Ocean

    For twelve days, Hyacinthe dropped torrential rainfall on RΓ©union; nearly all of the island received more than 1 m (3.3 ft) of precipitation. Over a 15 day period from January 14 to January 28, 6,083 mm (239.5 in) of rainfall were recorded at Commerson’s Crater, a volcano

    Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe was the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the world.
    Highest winds
    10-minute sustained:120 km/h (75 mph)
    1-minute sustained:130 km/h (80 mph)

  21. UAC coming to Chennai was delayed. One last hope remains in my heart. I know everyone here hates UAC.
    ======================================
    Starting form Tomorrow and 10th are D-Day for UAC. One last push. It will answer whether UAC rains are real. Then i will my throw away the term UAC from my mind. If it fails Three times in a how can i trust them

    UAC coming to Chennai on 10th June. Good chance of rains as it moves down from tomorrow near our N.TN coast. Please wait till 10th before thrashing the UAC.

  22. system has intensified quite significantly for past few hours indicated by the cirriform clouds and there is also very good outflow to the north of the system.

  23. Summary / Remarks from JTWC:

    080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 67.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.

  24. at last the monsoon clouds arrived πŸ™‚ and Very high chance of rains today or tomorrow in the evening.

  25. Met declares cyclone formation alert in Arabian Sea

    Monsoon stuck

    There is no rain warning for any part of the west coast of India since the storm is moving away. But the monsoon remained stuck to its northern limit over south peninsula.

    Its Arabian Sea arm is not expected to make any further progress till such time as the cyclone blows over. But the Bay of Bengal arm continues to be active over northeastern states dumping heavy rainfall.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/met-declares-cyclone-formation-alert-in-arabian-sea/article7294103.ece

  26. waste of time posting the link below.. ameen can u explain how it is waste. Just because it did not rains as u expected. Is it.

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