Early forecasts call for a formation of a system in bay early next week. Place of landfall and intensity is still uncertain at this point of time. By monday/Tuesday things are expected to be clear.
Gaje, not required. 1st we are seeing a upper level circulation. No can one tell, whether its a Depression or LPA or WML or Cyclone.
The question is ? Is it Intensification of named cyclone ?. I will be even happy with a Depression. IMD these days dont upgrade. Because once they call it as Depression. they have to write a Report. In case ofLPA or WML they need not. Last year Kanyakumari system in May was a Depression but IMD kept it at WML.
The question of Intensification of what itself is a quest. Moreover ECMWF is keeping the system from Comrin till
north TN for good 3 days. Its more than enough.
Helen in 2013 just needed less time. It skipped many stages and was called as cyclone. Cyclones rarely intensify so close to shore. Ogni was a exception. Its a once in 200 years cyclone.
Yes.lehar was a flop.but many of my friends and relatives in vizag still getting scared if they hear the word HUDHUD.HELEN surprised entire world with sudden intensification.but see western Pacific 20-30 cyclones per year.but in bay only 5-6.
Cyclones can be there to produce sufficient rains but should not be harmful
I think I have missed one active day of discussion yesterday. Seems the topics varied from models output ,thunderstorms, future disturbance, previous years system, swm Origin & source of swm circulation.. sssshhh. Rocking!!.. and also one of our longtime blogging expert vinodh making a comeback.. Vinodh,gaje,susa,jeet,guest11k, partha, rao ,krishna,sriram,jon,gts, dash ,hrishi,chandran and many others have made a big contribution.. Way to go!
I saw more than 5 or 6. He started talking about yesterday’s match and when he heard that sports talk is banned here he added weather along with Cricket to cover up.
btw,u hav been going tremendous in our ipl fantasy league!! all the best for remaining part of the season
Oh I haven’t made any changes for the past 3 days. Lost the fun part in that. I used to switch off my TV when my power player gets out.
oh.. try to b active again..i think u can. v r at the fag end of the league
More than me I think jeets started to take lead from nowhere. He is rocking now
Daily Rains in Karnataka continue, ending 8.30 am on 08.05.2015
==================================
The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area now lies over south coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l.
Thousands evacuated in Philippines as powerful typhoon nears
Typhoon Noul, a category 4 storm with winds of 160 kph (99 mph) and gusts of up to 195 kph, was about 210 km (130 miles) north northeast of Catanduanes island in the central Philippines.
It was expected to hit the rice-producing provinces of Cagayan and Isabela at around 5 a.m. [2100 GMT] on Sunday before weakening as it moved across the Sierra Madre mountains and into northeastern Luzon.
The weather bureau raised storm alerts in 19 areas on Luzon, warning that strong winds and intense rain could produce a 2.5 metre high storm surge along the coast areas and landslides in mountainous areas.
Coimbatore getting its quota, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 08.05.2015
=====================================
The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area now lies over south coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l.
So much talk, but look at how “widespread” the rainfall was yesterday. I know this is IMD’s list but rainfall only occurred at a few districts unlike what sat image suggested.
… Why does everybody think that an LPA is enough for rains ? Last November there was an LPA in SW BOB at the end. How much did Chennai get ?
big 0
but most time we got rain through lpa isn’t it?
No cyclones are always better
of course they give us heavy rains, but some time they also deceives us, isnt’it
Yes but very rarely does it happen. Yes Jal broke the hearts of many people who expected rains and Nilam wasn’t up to expectations but they were sheared and moving fast so you couldn’t expect more. LPAs ALWAYS are doubtful
Its a illusion. Stats prove otherwise. Cyclone give the most heavy spells.
I know. Everybody in the blog seems to think otherwise.
Cyclines give a miss to chennai most of the times thatswhy
Name 5 cyclones that gave less than 100 mm to Chennai please. I’ll name 2 for you : Jal and 2003 cyclone. Please don’t get deluded by stray examples
Nilam 2012
We got 12-13 cm from Nilam
ohh okk
Nowadays even LPA not causing much rainfall for our very own chennai.
I’ve started to love our summer thunderstorms which gives bountiful rainfall within 30 min or an hour.
it seems chance for rain in chennai from tuesday, and an active week ahead
thanks , still we not touch 38 degree but in chennai we feel 110 f why humidity on higher side,interior get rain but north coastal district of tamilnadu did not receive rain why?
nothing like that…but somehow i kept seeing this when all models are picking it up was wondering why this one is a bit different…my another worry if seaweed wins then no Rain…
Its just GFS. They update very late.
Does anyone have details of cyclone that crossed coast between cuddalore and Pondy in Nov’ 2000? At that time
it was reported that the cyclone was packed only with winds sans rains. Pondy recorded 13 mm. It was overcast in
Chennai for whole two days…with winds. Any details on this?
it crossed near cuddlaore/ parangipettai around 2/3 pm i think so,, lot of damages to trees, electric poles, communication,etc, pondy also severely affected, no power for 1 week,
Are you sure about this rainfall fig.? Cos I still remember vaguely…not a drop fell in Adambakkam
oh.. overnight rainfall maybe ? And yes I’m sure 65 mm spread over 2 days though
November 2000 Cyclone (Cuddalore)
CDR Karaikal reported open ‘eye’ at 280800 UTC and closed elliptical ‘eye’ from 281100 UTC. CDR Chennai reported ‘open eye’ from 281400 UTC onwards with ‘eye’ wall 20 km . The eye in the satellite imagery got warmed up to – 16 C with surrounding cold convection with cloud top temperature in the range of –70C to –75 C. Around this time CDR
Karaikal reported closed circular ‘eye’ near lat.11.40N/ long. 81.60E and CDR Chennai reported ‘eye’ near lat.11.50 N / long. 81.50 E with eyewall 20 km wide. Thereafter the cyclone weakened as it interacted with the land
The cyclone crossed the coast south of Cuddalore (43329 ) at 291130 UTC as a very severe cyclonic storm uprooting big trees at various places in and around Pondicherry and Cuddalore areas, Cuddalore Observatory reported surface pressure of 983.1 hPa. The touring officer indicated that this cyclone crossed just south of Cuddalore. Thus the central pressure is estimated as 978 hPa at the time of landfall. However, the winds experienced over the coastal areas were reported to be of the order of 110-120 Kmph.
This cyclone after land fall drifted south-westwards and weakened into a depression at 300300 UTC near Kodaikanal (43339) in south Tamil Nadu. Thereafter, it emerged into east Arabian Sea on 1 December as a low pressure system and weakened later. From the information gathered from the affected people in the coastal areas, it was learnt that lull period lasted for a maximum of 45 minutes indicating prevalence of ‘eye’ which was, however, not seen in the satellite and radar images at that time.
Was there another one in Dec 2000? Be’cos I remember one system which frustrated us
without giving rains even when it crossed near Pondy. There were also reports in the media about this
peculiar cyclone
Dec 2000 was Sri Lanka cyclone
OCCURRENCE OF CYCLONES DURING 2000
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm:Period of occurrence 26-29th November, 2000Areas affected South Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.Damage(preliminary estimates) Tamil Nadu: disruption of road/rail communication from Cuddalore to some places; uprooting of trees/electrical lines.
Pondicherry: death of one person;
Extensive damage to coconut trees/paddy crop.
source: imd website
Dec 2000 was also intense. But before Thane, the strongest cyclone to hit was November 2000 cyclone.
Next is December 2000 cyclone. It had also beautiful eye.
exactly, after 2000 nov, the next severe damage i witnessed in that area was because of thane, but i think thane was more severe, as it caused damage for entire cuddalore dt and pondy
Thats 1996
189 OMG… more than thane…
In 24 hrs the rainfall was 45 cm at Thozhudhur and 44 cm at Kilacheruvai in Cuddalore district.
normally a ride of 35 min from pondy to cuddalore took around 3 hrs that day, because of trees up rooted along the route
Thanks PJ…. but somehow, i am missing on this cyclone…which raised
everyone’s BP…no rains in chennai..fully overcast and windy. I remember
listening to ‘Maruti suzuki traffic beat’ programme in FM radio for getting
some live updates about this cyclone…
If any system (LPA / WML/ Depression / DD) forms and becomes stagnant near coast. It will trigger huge TS in interiors. It will create intense TS much more than norwestors.
ohh chennai recorded gud one too… but i think bit less when compared to hype created that time.. straight westward path… any cyclone behaves in d same way in past??
Don’t remember well but 2005 Fanoos I think
December 23-28, 2000
Very severe Cyclonic Storm over the bay of Bengal
90 Knots 167 Kmph
Three districts of Tamil Nadu state were affected by this storm in the Ramnathanpuram district, 350 houses were damaged in Thirunelveli. Houses damaged – 318. In Tutocorin houses damaged-318, Fishing boats lost – 95, loss to crops – 281 hectares of paddy, 650 hectares of plaintain and 80 hectares of betal destroyed.
ha haaa…. dat time dnt knw abt radar, imd, no pc…. but still njoyeddd those surprise showers…
ipalam rainy season la summa summa leave vidranga…. kids r enjoying…..
during nov 2000 i was in Cuddalore, and i personally witnessed how a cyclone can cause damages, lot of asbestos roof tops blown over and tress uprooted , it was like a war situation all along the roads, it took 10 days to restore normalcy in those areas,
thnks for chn rain lover and others for bringing back those memories
I still remember in 1993 December first week a DD crossed karaikal in the afternoon and started moving north in land. That night was horrible with huge amount of thunder storm and massive lightning. I have never heard such a continues thunder and lightning through out the night. Till date that was not beaten.
That night alone chennai got 18cm.
Morning I could see sunrise and DD weakened.
Due to that system Chennai and Coastal TN got good rainfall for 3 days.
1984 Strong November Cyclone, which was at peak intensity near Chennai. Chennai got 400 mm rainfall in 3 days. (11th November 10 am the rains started and ended at 13th evening. Most of the rains fell in 48 hrs.
Wow…….what a topic…………feels that we got rains by seeing this topic….thanks kea
Gaje, not required. 1st we are seeing a upper level circulation. No can one tell, whether its a Depression or LPA or WML or Cyclone.
The question is ? Is it Intensification of named cyclone ?. I will be even happy with a Depression. IMD these days dont upgrade. Because once they call it as Depression. they have to write a Report. In case ofLPA or WML they need not. Last year Kanyakumari system in May was a Depression but IMD kept it at WML.
The question of Intensification of what itself is a quest. Moreover ECMWF is keeping the system from Comrin till
north TN for good 3 days. Its more than enough.
Helen in 2013 just needed less time. It skipped many stages and was called as cyclone. Cyclones rarely intensify so close to shore. Ogni was a exception. Its a once in 200 years cyclone.
Going by satellite image bay is behaving as if it was in january.No cyclone indications till now.
The most interesting cyclones in the recent times are cyclone HELEN and LEHAR
Lehar is a buss. Andaman got 700 mm in 3 days. Helen is one of the case study cyclones like Ogni.
Yes.lehar was a flop.but many of my friends and relatives in vizag still getting scared if they hear the word HUDHUD.HELEN surprised entire world with sudden intensification.but see western Pacific 20-30 cyclones per year.but in bay only 5-6.
Cyclones can be there to produce sufficient rains but should not be harmful
Sir,,,, this time also we need ur power
Lehar is dud
Yes
Let’s see….what Is there for us
Yes.i think we need to wait till mid may
Not that much bro….things ll get clear in 2 days
Is it ?things are not getting clear.bay is getting clear
Joke aaa brooo
Yes
I am just making fun
One more Laila in Bay…..
Having a system in the middle of summer will be great
We need minimum 200 mm rainfall to manage water till july
I think I have missed one active day of discussion yesterday. Seems the topics varied from models output ,thunderstorms, future disturbance, previous years system, swm Origin & source of swm circulation.. sssshhh. Rocking!!.. and also one of our longtime blogging expert vinodh making a comeback.. Vinodh,gaje,susa,jeet,guest11k, partha, rao ,krishna,sriram,jon,gts, dash ,hrishi,chandran and many others have made a big contribution.. Way to go!
Yes the blog was in full flow
Add our pj to tat.. missed him
oh yes he even gave upto maddy
Did dash post his 2nd comment yet?
yeah,i think so
I saw more than 5 or 6. He started talking about yesterday’s match and when he heard that sports talk is banned here he added weather along with Cricket to cover up.
btw,u hav been going tremendous in our ipl fantasy league!! all the best for remaining part of the season
Oh I haven’t made any changes for the past 3 days. Lost the fun part in that. I used to switch off my TV when my power player gets out.
oh.. try to b active again..i think u can. v r at the fag end of the league
More than me I think jeets started to take lead from nowhere. He is rocking now
probability have increased slightly in Ecmwf ensemble.. http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249//data/soa/scratch/get_legacy_plot-web249-21afb3424b395e92cb7f1b5bc9f473fd-bGmHI6.gif
Ogni 26th October, 2006 chennai rains – http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-miscellaneous/weather/article3066381.ece
28th – http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-miscellaneous/weather/article3067451.ece
29th – http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-miscellaneous/weather/article3067891.ece
30th – http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-miscellaneous/weather/article3068425.ece
Pve topic.lets hope it happens.
cmc joining imd gfs ..destination point is same but the track is different
Any one has any idea about what crepesular rays is?
Yes.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crepuscular_rays
lol
welcum back pj sir..
When did he leave? ?
Good one
night to morning .i left so i welcum him(sir) again.pa
leave.
Oh I never knew that there are weird terms used for evening sunlight
http://www.atoptics.co.uk/atoptics/ray1.htm
More detailed information in this http://www.demark.org/essays/CrepuscularRays.html
Nilam memories over pamban… Perfect snap for blind rain……
Close enough to the so called limbo they describe in Harry Potter and deathly hallows part 2
http://i2.wp.com/extra.listverse.com/amazon/weather/mammatus.jpg?zoom=2&resize=400%2C302
aww. .mammatus.. sometimes it appears disgusting to see
Will these give any rain at all?
no.upper level clouds.. it forms below the anvil.
Sub tropical storm Ana!
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=281.46,32.34,1687
NASA Astronaut Scott Kelly took this photo on-board the ISS.
We need this system so badly. .mybet if it maintains the v track or slightly North we may get lor of rain
But this not looking promising
Lol that’s for Burma
Is this system formation location East of SL or right inside GoM?
east of lanka or right over lanka acc to gfs
Will the SL landmass distract the system intensity? as it won’t aid in convection build up
development may get hindered if the llc moves inland but the convection maynot get affected as the size of lpa and convergence area is large
itcz line started marching up. bay giving room for it and high pressure area in arb sea retarding the extension of itcz in tat zone
zen
??
yea ameen
Purila pa?
he is calling me with nick name.
cmc is still showing a cyclone can we believe zen?
Rains r confirm.atleastwe will get drizzles
above one is a recent gfs
looking good. ideal place for a circulation to pound chn
Hmm
Yes.GOM is gud
already temperature is 34.2
Is it?
The mobile version of kea is just superb…
Yes bro
getting stagnated near tn coast .. hope tis will trigger severe t storms inland over tn http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050900/gfs_z850_vort_ind_28.png
meanwhile cmc update coming out
System may reach tamilnadu andhra coast in next 100 hours
Has the system formed?
Deepu……just boosting others
U ah?
Yes…but system confined na
Latest GEM forecast….
Looks like strong depression
It’s a deep depression
Jupiii…entire ntn sap pounding like anything
Over asaii peru nastum.
But anything can happen.let see
Daiiii.. Nambika thaanda vazhkai
Apdipodu:-P
Nambikai athane yellam:-P
Yes bro
Bro mazhai varuma varadha
Therilayae maaa
GEM is gud from the starting for us.lets see
lovely forecast pic and if this comes true should be a memorable one for chennai .
Earthnull showing this
Gfs showing some showers for 18th.
4 mm to be exact
Lol..40 mm
400mm
Mdu ap 3 cm. My place would have got similar amount.
Kallikudi 83.5,T. Kallupatti 57.5,virudhunagar 53,sivakasi46 mm
Dont put Virdhunagar and Sivakasi as IMD has data. It will create confusion. Jon put only the non imd stations from that page.
Daily Rains in Karnataka continue, ending 8.30 am on 08.05.2015
==================================
The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area now lies over south coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l.
in mm (min 25 mm)
Nallur – 97
Makonahalli – 74
Nooralakuppe – 68
Talagunda – 59
Hirebandady – 51
Hirebylu – 50
Asundi – 50
Hullenahalli – 50
Kokkanur – 46
Yashwanthnagara – 46
Basarikatte – 40
Maragodu – 40
Bagenahalli – 39
Asundi – 37
Ayanur – 36
Hirekerur – 35
Thogarsi – 34
Hirekerur – 34
Undiganaalu – 33
Ajjampura – 33
Hangaraki – 32
Bad – 31
Rae – 31
Ajekar – 31
Masur – 30
Gudageri – 30
Kanivedasarahalli – 30
Hungunda – 29
Attigundi – 28
Chitradurga – 27
Kabini – 26
Doni – 26
Belthangadi – 25
Venoor – 25
Belur – 25
Kalasa – 25
Bidi – 25
Turuvanur – 25
Somayajalapalli – 25
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
06w NOUL image image loop
Globel models track
Noul now visible in radar
JTWC TRACK
07w seven
radar not updating for me
Anybody there
me
Hi deepak when we track our new system
just wait for the things to be clear by next two days
Innum two days wait pananuma:'(
lol…the circulation is at east of lanka or right over lanka acc to gfs,lets wait
doing a very gud copy paste job. well done
Isn’t the sky already clear?
Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist)
7
Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist), Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist)
5 each
Peraiyur (Madurai Dist)
4
Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist)
3 each
Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist)
2 e
GEM excepting the low near GOM
Thousands evacuated in Philippines as powerful typhoon nears
Typhoon Noul, a category 4 storm with winds of 160 kph (99 mph) and gusts of up to 195 kph, was about 210 km (130 miles) north northeast of Catanduanes island in the central Philippines.
It was expected to hit the rice-producing provinces of Cagayan and Isabela at around 5 a.m. [2100 GMT] on Sunday before weakening as it moved across the Sierra Madre mountains and into northeastern Luzon.
The weather bureau raised storm alerts in 19 areas on Luzon, warning that strong winds and intense rain could produce a 2.5 metre high storm surge along the coast areas and landslides in mountainous areas.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/international/thousands-evacuated-in-philippines-as-powerful-typhoon-nears/article7187851.ece
Its very hot today compared to yesterday
yeah, don’t know hat we are going to do once it crosses 38C
Dark clouds welcoming evening rains in Kovai Kuruchi Kulam, Pix Courtesy Dinamalar
AWS live data link changed? not opening for me
IMD links are down
oh ok
Snaps from Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist). It has Rained for 30min as passing showers on May 7 th.
Last year winds have turned back to Westerlies on May9th after the System hits over Tamilnadu.
Coimbatore getting its quota, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 08.05.2015
=====================================
The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area now lies over south coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l.
in mm (min 10 mm)
Valparai, Coimbatore – 63
Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore – 30
Thoppampatti, Dindugul – 36
Coimbatore AP, Coimbatore – 35
Kundadam, Tiruppur – 35
Sultanpet, Coimbatore – 34
Pandavaiyar, Tiruvarur – 33
K.M.Koil, Cuddalore – 33
Kovilpatti, Toothukudi – 33
Penucondapuram, Krishnagiri – 32
Glenmorgan, Nilgiris – 32
Upper Aliyar, Coimbatore – 31
Sulur, Coimbatore – 30
Dharapuram, Tiruppur – 30
Mohanur, Namakkal – 28
Lower Glenmorgan, Nilgiris – 25
Mangalapuram, Namakkal – 24
Dharmapuri PTO, Dharmapuri – 23
Panamarathupatti, Salem – 22
Coimbatore South, Coimbatore – 22
Nannilam, Tiruvarur – 21
Ramnad NICRA, Ramanathapuram – 21
Porthimund, Nilgiris – 20
Sethubavachatram, Thanjavur – 18
Naduvattam, Nilgiris – 18
Sethiathope, Cuddalore – 16
Dharamapuri, Dharmapuri – 16
Periyar, Theni – 16
Kadamparai, Coimbatore – 15
Madurai AP, Madurai – 15
Madukkarai, Coimbatore – 14
Manomboly, Coimbatore – 13
Coimbatore, Coimbatore – 12
Uthagamandalam, Nilgiris – 12
Karimangalam, Dharmapuri – 10
Kodavasal, Tiruvarur – 10
Paramathi, Namakkal- 10
Thiruvidaimaruthur, Thanjavur – 10
Alangayam, Vellore – 10
Lower Nirar, Coimbatore – 10
Chellampatti, Madurai – 10
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1351
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
Long datas
“data” no datas
Latest NGFS forecast.
Still looking good for N.TN including chennai.
Chennai temperature shooting for the first time in last 4 days
Hope it increases further
oh no I am eagerly waiting for the “todays topic” to materialise
If system forms hot days are guaranteed either system deviates or after that
let system forms, and let it pound us with rains first, if hot days begin after that , let us welcome that
Yes heat has started to rise.
Typical chennai conditions.
Ecm latest
lol same time
Actually they have reduced the intensity from their previous run.
S it was better yst night
super hot today… 36 deg with rel hum around 60….
Madurai AP 28 mm
So much talk, but look at how “widespread” the rainfall was yesterday. I know this is IMD’s list but rainfall only occurred at a few districts unlike what sat image suggested.
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/rf_daily.htm
Imd missing lot of stations…
Main storm area madurai, virudhunagar spread thro tvli tuty in south, theni cbe to w, ramnad to e dindugal to n
Yes but look at TNAU. Only Madurai Virudhunagar and Tirunelveli got good rains
yes
Tirunelveli – widespread
Virudhunagar – widespread
Kanykumari – widespread
Madurai – widespread
Coimbatore – Moderate
Thoothukudi – moderate
dont start again susa boy. u too know rains are widespread.
One more storm is getting ready to form over West Pacific. This one is dangerous than Noul.
This might hit South China coast by next week, one of the strongest Typhoon in formation.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
Tropical storm seven
Rain likely from day after tomorrow onwards…
http://foreca.mobi/old/7d.php?l=101264527
GFS latest run.
That’s more intense than in the previous runs!
Yes GFS showing some good improvement whereas ECMWF reduced its intensity.
TS chance for NTN – today and tomorrow.
Coastal areas won’t get anything though.
then any rain in vellore and areas..
Very much possible.
Both you and Jupi are on the same lines, let us see
Latest GFS run indicative of a depression
There is a story which I have read during my childhood “Pulivaruthu , Pulivaruthu – and finally it came – will that happen here also
Aana depression namakku varuma nu doubtu
Eli kooda varadhu :p
Gem is the only model that has been consistently indicating heavy rainfall for N TN including Chennai lol. Enna oru raasi
Yes maddy. ECMWF and others are picking up something.
But GEM is picking up something significant, adhaan orey difference
GEM always picks up something significant. 😛
“WOW” in Santhanam slang
Poor GEM 😛
NAVGEM
I don’t know about JMA’s performance here but
Like GEM even they have been consistent showing the same for the past 3-4 days.
JMA, NAVGEM, GEM, ECMWF, GFS -… is there anything left to confuse us
NGFS
Finally I am interested only in Ameen Analysis!!
Taiwan GFS
Moving to TN
Wow
For the first time our bob system has rainbands of its own
PJ is there any specialty for NAVGEM like how GEM can detect track changes
Navgem is always late. But Gem is pakka in picking up 1st. But strictly ignore the intensity.
No idea maddy. But i love GEM.
Sir…lpa is enough for us now
… Why does everybody think that an LPA is enough for rains ? Last November there was an LPA in SW BOB at the end. How much did Chennai get ?
big 0
but most time we got rain through lpa isn’t it?
No cyclones are always better
of course they give us heavy rains, but some time they also deceives us, isnt’it
Yes but very rarely does it happen. Yes Jal broke the hearts of many people who expected rains and Nilam wasn’t up to expectations but they were sheared and moving fast so you couldn’t expect more. LPAs ALWAYS are doubtful
Its a illusion. Stats prove otherwise. Cyclone give the most heavy spells.
I know. Everybody in the blog seems to think otherwise.
Cyclines give a miss to chennai most of the times thatswhy
Name 5 cyclones that gave less than 100 mm to Chennai please. I’ll name 2 for you : Jal and 2003 cyclone. Please don’t get deluded by stray examples
Nilam 2012
We got 12-13 cm from Nilam
ohh okk
Nowadays even LPA not causing much rainfall for our very own chennai.
I’ve started to love our summer thunderstorms which gives bountiful rainfall within 30 min or an hour.
it seems chance for rain in chennai from tuesday, and an active week ahead
Thunders approaching salem from North
Yes, high Clouds gathering in yercard surrounding…
as hpa persists and dry air present I don’t think it will be a strong systm..?? may be a WLP..or dd..if it comes after 15th.
The inflow is from south. How can dry air get into this. HPA at northern side will improve the outflow.
Hello sir!
Yes as PJ said inflow is from south it won’t suck in dry air
We got 7 cm from Jal..
2003 December cyclone was worse
oh. how much did we got? .
I dont know the exact value but it was less than 3 cm
On that time u age ll be 1 or 2
i was only 1
Hmmmm
I was born in 2000, was approaching 4..
Ok bro
which cyclone gave the most rains in chennai??
June 1996 cyclone gave about 68 cm
i want radar image of that cyclone
Appo radar irunthudha nu doubt 😛
thank you bro
june 1996 700mm in 2 days
thnx… ameen
Actually no it was a Diwali cyclone it gave 78 cm in 3 days
in nugambakkam
Enna pudhu name 😀
F. habib Mohammed ameen bijli – F. H. M. AB. my full name
Wen kea blog started i forgot the year
2003
???
2009 or 2008
2008 word press ends there…
we were following 2005 rains in blog
Wow really ? I thought it started in 2009 or something lol
Kea metsite readings start from 2004 September
it started as blog i remember wordpress it came later
Ohh are those still stored in archives ? 😦
no idea
Keaweather.wordpress.com
All saved there. Except for some experimenting last year.
Experiments n post deletions galore was the highlight of 2013 ( from.October till 2014 September.)
WordPress I think started in 2009
Bfore wp??
y imd site not working from mrg…. under maintenance ah.. LOL
Not able to see the RADAR imagas
El Nino has finally arrived
http://www.wusa9.com/story/weather/2015/05/08/elnino-cool-summer-rain/26629041/
World headed for an El Nino and it could be a big one, scientists say
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/world-headed-for-an-el-nino-and-it-could-be-a-big-one-scientists-say-20150508-ggw8bo.html
Ameen what is that in ur profile pic ? Can u upload that pls 😛
here is the pic….. 20 oct 2014 PAC pic
That onset..one of the best
Amazing one
have already my office coleagues it is going to rain next week hopefully this happens..expecting 25-20 cms if it is on track
That is just expecting way too much when rains are doubtful in the first place 😛
susu see that img below i have posted
ha ha ha love to have that radar again
my expectation…summer system should have more rain than wind…lets see there is a fair chance but i do know my request is a bit too much
Well the system needs to intensify quite a bit more to have rainbands in the first place, but it is unlikely that strong ones would reach us
magic sea weed finally showing activity but still not showing a WML or DD ..
It will be a depression at least, no chance for wml
any chances next week rain for chennai
Typical week ahead
thanks , still we not touch 38 degree but in chennai we feel 110 f why humidity on higher side,interior get rain but north coastal district of tamilnadu did not receive rain why?
fate…..
He he he
why are u fond of sea weed
nothing like that…but somehow i kept seeing this when all models are picking it up was wondering why this one is a bit different…my another worry if seaweed wins then no Rain…
Its just GFS. They update very late.
Does anyone have details of cyclone that crossed coast between cuddalore and Pondy in Nov’ 2000? At that time
it was reported that the cyclone was packed only with winds sans rains. Pondy recorded 13 mm. It was overcast in
Chennai for whole two days…with winds. Any details on this?
Seems to have crossed near Parangipettai. Chennai AP recorded 65 mm, Nunga could’ve received more
it crossed near cuddlaore/ parangipettai around 2/3 pm i think so,, lot of damages to trees, electric poles, communication,etc, pondy also severely affected, no power for 1 week,
Are you sure about this rainfall fig.? Cos I still remember vaguely…not a drop fell in Adambakkam
oh.. overnight rainfall maybe ? And yes I’m sure 65 mm spread over 2 days though
November 2000 Cyclone (Cuddalore)
CDR Karaikal reported open ‘eye’ at 280800 UTC and closed elliptical ‘eye’ from 281100 UTC. CDR Chennai reported ‘open eye’ from 281400 UTC onwards with ‘eye’ wall 20 km . The eye in the satellite imagery got warmed up to – 16 C with surrounding cold convection with cloud top temperature in the range of –70C to –75 C. Around this time CDR
Karaikal reported closed circular ‘eye’ near lat.11.40N/ long. 81.60E and CDR Chennai reported ‘eye’ near lat.11.50 N / long. 81.50 E with eyewall 20 km wide. Thereafter the cyclone weakened as it interacted with the land
The cyclone crossed the coast south of Cuddalore (43329 ) at 291130 UTC as a very severe cyclonic storm uprooting big trees at various places in and around Pondicherry and Cuddalore areas, Cuddalore Observatory reported surface pressure of 983.1 hPa. The touring officer indicated that this cyclone crossed just south of Cuddalore. Thus the central pressure is estimated as 978 hPa at the time of landfall. However, the winds experienced over the coastal areas were reported to be of the order of 110-120 Kmph.
This cyclone after land fall drifted south-westwards and weakened into a depression at 300300 UTC near Kodaikanal (43339) in south Tamil Nadu. Thereafter, it emerged into east Arabian Sea on 1 December as a low pressure system and weakened later. From the information gathered from the affected people in the coastal areas, it was learnt that lull period lasted for a maximum of 45 minutes indicating prevalence of ‘eye’ which was, however, not seen in the satellite and radar images at that time.
Peak Winds gusts observed 189kmph as per imd
was in November 2000 or December 2000 Jon.
Nov 26-30 storm gusts i mean
Was there another one in Dec 2000? Be’cos I remember one system which frustrated us
without giving rains even when it crossed near Pondy. There were also reports in the media about this
peculiar cyclone
Dec 2000 was Sri Lanka cyclone
OCCURRENCE OF CYCLONES DURING 2000
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm:Period of occurrence 26-29th November, 2000Areas affected South Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.Damage(preliminary estimates) Tamil Nadu: disruption of road/rail communication from Cuddalore to some places; uprooting of trees/electrical lines.
Pondicherry: death of one person;
Extensive damage to coconut trees/paddy crop.
source: imd website
Dec 2000 was also intense. But before Thane, the strongest cyclone to hit was November 2000 cyclone.
Next is December 2000 cyclone. It had also beautiful eye.
exactly, after 2000 nov, the next severe damage i witnessed in that area was because of thane, but i think thane was more severe, as it caused damage for entire cuddalore dt and pondy
Thats 1996
189 OMG… more than thane…
In 24 hrs the rainfall was 45 cm at Thozhudhur and 44 cm at Kilacheruvai in Cuddalore district.
normally a ride of 35 min from pondy to cuddalore took around 3 hrs that day, because of trees up rooted along the route
Chennai (Nunga) got 77 mm in 3 days.
Thanks PJ…. but somehow, i am missing on this cyclone…which raised
everyone’s BP…no rains in chennai..fully overcast and windy. I remember
listening to ‘Maruti suzuki traffic beat’ programme in FM radio for getting
some live updates about this cyclone…
If any system (LPA / WML/ Depression / DD) forms and becomes stagnant near coast. It will trigger huge TS in interiors. It will create intense TS much more than norwestors.
In chennai????
Yes
What does it show?
nov 26 2000 pondy cyclone case study
Click to access 02e7e5278a9fe7f37f000000.pdf
very severe dec cyclone Thane is d one which s packed with winds nd gives scanty rain over chennai… I think… pondy alone recorded 10cm
Pondy got 25 cm, Chennai got 10 cm. Mahabalipuram got some 15 cm
ohh chennai recorded gud one too… but i think bit less when compared to hype created that time.. straight westward path… any cyclone behaves in d same way in past??
Don’t remember well but 2005 Fanoos I think
December 23-28, 2000
Very severe Cyclonic Storm over the bay of Bengal
90 Knots 167 Kmph
Three districts of Tamil Nadu state were affected by this storm in the Ramnathanpuram district, 350 houses were damaged in Thirunelveli. Houses damaged – 318. In Tutocorin houses damaged-318, Fishing boats lost – 95, loss to crops – 281 hectares of paddy, 650 hectares of plaintain and 80 hectares of betal destroyed.
yes i remember those days.. 3 days school leave during my 8th std…… school ground becomes pond during dat season…
School leavlayae irunga pa
ha haaa…. dat time dnt knw abt radar, imd, no pc…. but still njoyeddd those surprise showers…
ipalam rainy season la summa summa leave vidranga…. kids r enjoying…..
during nov 2000 i was in Cuddalore, and i personally witnessed how a cyclone can cause damages, lot of asbestos roof tops blown over and tress uprooted , it was like a war situation all along the roads, it took 10 days to restore normalcy in those areas,
thnks for chn rain lover and others for bringing back those memories
I still remember in 1993 December first week a DD crossed karaikal in the afternoon and started moving north in land. That night was horrible with huge amount of thunder storm and massive lightning. I have never heard such a continues thunder and lightning through out the night. Till date that was not beaten.
That night alone chennai got 18cm.
Morning I could see sunrise and DD weakened.
Due to that system Chennai and Coastal TN got good rainfall for 3 days.
So the strongest storm to hit TN??
Dhanushkodi cyclone ?
But chennai didnt get much rain right?
Yea definitely not I guess it was in extreme S TN
Yes S.TN was under a massive battering due to dhanushkodi cyclone.
I’ve read a lot of stories regarding this.
yes my father used to say all those stories often….
Yea one of the most tragic incident to ever happen.
S at 240kmph can’t really beleive
Thy say on 23 dec pamban recorded 240 k
In 1984/85 a category 3 crossed in between Chennai and Sriharikota, Chn could’ve recorded 200 kph gust from that
Peak of 213kmph (imd)in AP
oh gust or sustained ??
Observed max winds got to b gusts
jon 240kmph s way too strong.. den how it missed N/NW movement towards NTN/AP
in terms of lost to lives i think it’s one of the worst, an entire small village destroyed, and also the fate of people in train, purely tragic
GOOD NEWS:
GFS slowly coming in line with ECMWF, GEM and has raised the intensity of the system and now it is showing Deep Depression east of SL.
super bro… sry i have a doubt… how v can say whether dd r D r lpa from the above fig…
Check the scale to the right of the image,It shows the intensity in Knots.
Actually it is vorticity that is shaded 😛
Yes thats what I was trying to say 😛
We need to check vorticity and wind barbs
scale has been provided to the right side of the image to check the wind speed( in knots).
Actually that is scale to check vorticity/second 😛
That’s welcome news.
Super showers here in Kattapetu near Kothagiri. Started around 2.30 pm n has just stopped now.
Kothagiiri ? Now ? 😦 :jealous:
Reached around 11.30 am. Jon.
My doubts have been cleared, rains chase Novak and not the other way around
at least let him be lucky, we are boiling in the heat here, i think today is the highest temp so far
Ellam oru naal maja dhaan. Aparum irrukave irruku.
hope our turn comes next week,
Hoping for that miracle. Let it pour..
No Susa, heard from my tennis coach friend that it’s been raining here in Kattapetu for the last 4 or 5 days around 3 pm.
Kattapettu near Kothagiri. Warm sunshine n misty till about 2 pm. Then the heavens opened..
1984 Strong November Cyclone, which was at peak intensity near Chennai. Chennai got 400 mm rainfall in 3 days. (11th November 10 am the rains started and ended at 13th evening. Most of the rains fell in 48 hrs.
See the track. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/n_indian/1984/3/track.gif
PJ sir, straight N movement due to increase in intensity???
Ridge. Then its a Mystery why it turned back and loop