911 thoughts on “Interesting days ahead

  1. Good Morning, after two days of break once again low level clouds can be seen on the eastern horizon to keep the soaring temperature (hopefully) at Bay.

    Foreca predicts heavy rains for chennai from 13th night as it brings back its huge towers 😀

  3. The mid level is surging with moisture from the UAC, going to be pumped into coastal TN starting today.

    The delta region might get it’s share.

  4. As per 500 hpa GFS map UAC has moved west wards,.. … now lies South of Kanyakumari…… As per 850 hpa GFS charts Low level cyclonic circulation is seen east of Sri Lanka!

  5. Atlast GFS Confirms Cyclone – Hats off to GEM and Rao. But going to Orissa / WestBengal

  6. We might get overnight/morning showers in the next few days but don’t pin your hopes on them. If you want NEM like showers then you will get them when the cyclone in developing provided they reach us! So a cyclone isn’t really that bad a thing for us.

    • As per 500 hpa GFS map UAC has moved west wards,.. … now lies South of Kanyakumari…… As per 850 hpa GFS charts Low level cyclonic circulation is seen east of Sri Lanka!

  7. So all models except ECMWF has picked up cyclone. Today’s run of ECMWF will pick up something.

      • Nothing as of now. ameen Just wait. This is 1st time GFS is showing something. they are going to change a lot. Dont put inFB now itself Cyclone is forming.

    • Even if the landfall in AP there is fairly good chance North Tamilnadu will benefit from this – provided it forms

    • This exactly i mentioned in the first post, but chances temperature will be less compared to last two days

  8. y models saying it will go to North-AP or south orissa? current wind pattern will take it to central T.N or Chennai…

  9. Lot.of.confusion..finally cyclone confirmed.asususal no cyclone for chennai and its going beyond TN.so only overcast conditions and drizzles only.lets. enjoy these lucky conditions

  10. If it is a cyclone any chance of southern bads hitting tn if it lands.at central ap???/

    • I remember when selva anna said..for our system to gain some intensity the S.indian ocean system below us should form a little east and that has actually happened.It has moved a little east.

    • GEM expects a cyclone to cross S/C AP coast by 13th whereas GFS expects a depression near our coast 3 days later.
      GEM mass! _/_

  11. Flash news!!!

    wind direction is from SE! if a thunderstorm wants to come to chennai it should come from South east direction!

    many Ts seen in SE direction!

  12. guys our best chances if its a cyclone is chances today and tomorrow.if its depression it will reach us and chances are from tomorrow.so anything is our bonus..lets wait!!!

      • yes..but if its a depression its big bonus if its cyclone and moving beyond tn it should be overcast conditions,windy,and drizzles/mod rains


    GFS latest run showing strong cyclone right over TN. Whole TN will be flooded if this comes true.

  14. GFS showing massive change in its forecast. Yesterday’s run was showing Odisha/WB landfall and now its latest run showing TN landfall.

  15. Guest 11k,
    The interesting thing is they are expecting the current circulation to develop into a cyclone and hit TN which means chennai should be getting heavy rainfall starting from 13th maybe till 22nd :O

  16. 😛
    12may – new low pressure area
    13may- lpa is rapidly intensified in to a dd
    14may- imd upgraded this system in to cat-3 cyclone the cyclone name is ashoba
    15may- ashoba made landfall chn- pondy
    maximum wind is 165kmph chennai recieved 444mm in 3 day pondy &cud&vilupuram&nagapatinam got200mm each
    Finally. System sethupochu

  17. This GFS run is really encouraging, but doesn’t look so realistic :3 How can a cyclone maintain intensity even while travelling through mountains like western ghats ?

    BUT, a cyclone hitting Kerala is very much possible

  18. After the current GFS run I feel like even GEM forecast model seems to be better that GFS 😛

  19. OMG.
    This GFS run predicts a cyclone hitting kerala and moving up towards TN coast and then Bangalore with good intensity.
    strangest forecast I’ve seen in recent times.

  20. Can somebody share the 700 and 500hpa wind direction forecasts for the next 2 weeks?Where are Sel and GTS?MJO shown as a weak one for the next 2 weeks.

  21. We expected this system to travel along the Indian east coast but GFS had something different in it’s mind.
    This one is expected to travel along the Indian west coast right upto Goa/mumbai as a cyclone 😛

  22. Deepak, even if GFS comes true and if the system travel along west coast. chennai will get pull effect rains. This what happened in 2004.

  23. Accuweather forecast for chennai
    Monday 11/5/15- 3mm
    Tuesday 12/5/15- 19mm
    Wednesday 13/5/15- 8mm
    Thursday 14/5/15- 10mm
    Friday 15/5/15- 7mm
    Saturday 16/5/15- 14mm

    TOTAL = 61 mm

  24. Foreca meteogram its based on ECMWF predicting nearly 52mm for chennai staring from Tuesday… experts what’s your take on this… .. accuweather also forecasting 61mm for chennai and bbc also forecasting good rains for chennai coming week!


  25. Phyan in 2009,2004 track. Chennai got over 200 mm.

    was everything durin the time of SWN and NEM?

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