887 thoughts on “Possibility of bay system next week

  1. Gaje, not required. 1st we are seeing a upper level circulation. No can one tell, whether its a Depression or LPA or WML or Cyclone.

    The question is ? Is it Intensification of named cyclone ?. I will be even happy with a Depression. IMD these days dont upgrade. Because once they call it as Depression. they have to write a Report. In case ofLPA or WML they need not. Last year Kanyakumari system in May was a Depression but IMD kept it at WML.

    The question of Intensification of what itself is a quest. Moreover ECMWF is keeping the system from Comrin till
    north TN for good 3 days. Its more than enough.

    Helen in 2013 just needed less time. It skipped many stages and was called as cyclone. Cyclones rarely intensify so close to shore. Ogni was a exception. Its a once in 200 years cyclone.

  2. Going by satellite image bay is behaving as if it was in january.No cyclone indications till now.

  3. I think I have missed one active day of discussion yesterday. Seems the topics varied from models output ,thunderstorms, future disturbance, previous years system, swm Origin & source of swm circulation.. sssshhh. Rocking!!.. and also one of our longtime blogging expert vinodh making a comeback.. Vinodh,gaje,susa,jeet,guest11k, partha, rao ,krishna,sriram,jon,gts, dash ,hrishi,chandran and many others have made a big contribution.. Way to go!

  4. We need this system so badly. .mybet if it maintains the v track or slightly North we may get lor of rain

      • Will the SL landmass distract the system intensity? as it won’t aid in convection build up

      • development may get hindered if the llc moves inland but the convection maynot get affected as the size of lpa and convergence area is large

  5. itcz line started marching up. bay giving room for it and high pressure area in arb sea retarding the extension of itcz in tat zone

    • Dont put Virdhunagar and Sivakasi as IMD has data. It will create confusion. Jon put only the non imd stations from that page.

  6. Daily Rains in Karnataka continue, ending 8.30 am on 08.05.2015
    The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area now lies over south coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l.

    in mm (min 25 mm)

    Nallur – 97
    Makonahalli – 74
    Nooralakuppe – 68
    Talagunda – 59
    Hirebandady – 51
    Hirebylu – 50
    Asundi – 50
    Hullenahalli – 50
    Kokkanur – 46
    Yashwanthnagara – 46
    Basarikatte – 40
    Maragodu – 40
    Bagenahalli – 39
    Asundi – 37
    Ayanur – 36
    Hirekerur – 35
    Thogarsi – 34
    Hirekerur – 34
    Undiganaalu – 33
    Ajjampura – 33
    Hangaraki – 32
    Bad – 31
    Rae – 31
    Ajekar – 31
    Masur – 30
    Gudageri – 30
    Kanivedasarahalli – 30
    Hungunda – 29
    Attigundi – 28
    Chitradurga – 27
    Kabini – 26
    Doni – 26
    Belthangadi – 25
    Venoor – 25
    Belur – 25
    Kalasa – 25
    Bidi – 25
    Turuvanur – 25
    Somayajalapalli – 25

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  7. Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist)


    Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist), Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist)

    5 each

    Peraiyur (Madurai Dist)


    Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist)

    3 each

    Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist)

    2 e

  8. Thousands evacuated in Philippines as powerful typhoon nears

    Typhoon Noul, a category 4 storm with winds of 160 kph (99 mph) and gusts of up to 195 kph, was about 210 km (130 miles) north northeast of Catanduanes island in the central Philippines.

    It was expected to hit the rice-producing provinces of Cagayan and Isabela at around 5 a.m. [2100 GMT] on Sunday before weakening as it moved across the Sierra Madre mountains and into northeastern Luzon.

    The weather bureau raised storm alerts in 19 areas on Luzon, warning that strong winds and intense rain could produce a 2.5 metre high storm surge along the coast areas and landslides in mountainous areas.


  9. Snaps from Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist). It has Rained for 30min as passing showers on May 7 th.

  10. Last year winds have turned back to Westerlies on May9th after the System hits over Tamilnadu.

  11. Coimbatore getting its quota, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 08.05.2015
    The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Comorin area now lies over south coastal Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l.

    in mm (min 10 mm)

    Valparai, Coimbatore – 63
    Valparai Taluk Office, Coimbatore – 30
    Thoppampatti, Dindugul – 36
    Coimbatore AP, Coimbatore – 35
    Kundadam, Tiruppur – 35
    Sultanpet, Coimbatore – 34
    Pandavaiyar, Tiruvarur – 33
    K.M.Koil, Cuddalore – 33
    Kovilpatti, Toothukudi – 33
    Penucondapuram, Krishnagiri – 32
    Glenmorgan, Nilgiris – 32
    Upper Aliyar, Coimbatore – 31
    Sulur, Coimbatore – 30
    Dharapuram, Tiruppur – 30
    Mohanur, Namakkal – 28
    Lower Glenmorgan, Nilgiris – 25
    Mangalapuram, Namakkal – 24
    Dharmapuri PTO, Dharmapuri – 23
    Panamarathupatti, Salem – 22
    Coimbatore South, Coimbatore – 22
    Nannilam, Tiruvarur – 21
    Ramnad NICRA, Ramanathapuram – 21
    Porthimund, Nilgiris – 20
    Sethubavachatram, Thanjavur – 18
    Naduvattam, Nilgiris – 18
    Sethiathope, Cuddalore – 16
    Dharamapuri, Dharmapuri – 16
    Periyar, Theni – 16
    Kadamparai, Coimbatore – 15
    Madurai AP, Madurai – 15
    Madukkarai, Coimbatore – 14
    Manomboly, Coimbatore – 13
    Coimbatore, Coimbatore – 12
    Uthagamandalam, Nilgiris – 12
    Karimangalam, Dharmapuri – 10
    Kodavasal, Tiruvarur – 10
    Paramathi, Namakkal- 10
    Thiruvidaimaruthur, Thanjavur – 10
    Alangayam, Vellore – 10
    Lower Nirar, Coimbatore – 10
    Chellampatti, Madurai – 10

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1351

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    • Imd missing lot of stations…

      Main storm area madurai, virudhunagar spread thro tvli tuty in south, theni cbe to w, ramnad to e dindugal to n

      • Tirunelveli – widespread
        Virudhunagar – widespread
        Kanykumari – widespread
        Madurai – widespread
        Coimbatore – Moderate
        Thoothukudi – moderate

  12. Gem is the only model that has been consistently indicating heavy rainfall for N TN including Chennai lol. Enna oru raasi

    • Navgem is always late. But Gem is pakka in picking up 1st. But strictly ignore the intensity.

      No idea maddy. But i love GEM.

      • … Why does everybody think that an LPA is enough for rains ? Last November there was an LPA in SW BOB at the end. How much did Chennai get ?

      • of course they give us heavy rains, but some time they also deceives us, isnt’it

      • Yes but very rarely does it happen. Yes Jal broke the hearts of many people who expected rains and Nilam wasn’t up to expectations but they were sheared and moving fast so you couldn’t expect more. LPAs ALWAYS are doubtful

      • Its a illusion. Stats prove otherwise. Cyclone give the most heavy spells.

      • Name 5 cyclones that gave less than 100 mm to Chennai please. I’ll name 2 for you : Jal and 2003 cyclone. Please don’t get deluded by stray examples

      • Nowadays even LPA not causing much rainfall for our very own chennai.
        I’ve started to love our summer thunderstorms which gives bountiful rainfall within 30 min or an hour.

  13. as hpa persists and dry air present I don’t think it will be a strong systm..?? may be a WLP..or dd..if it comes after 15th.

  14. have already my office coleagues it is going to rain next week hopefully this happens..expecting 25-20 cms if it is on track

      • my expectation…summer system should have more rain than wind…lets see there is a fair chance but i do know my request is a bit too much

      • Well the system needs to intensify quite a bit more to have rainbands in the first place, but it is unlikely that strong ones would reach us

  15. Does anyone have details of cyclone that crossed coast between cuddalore and Pondy in Nov’ 2000? At that time
    it was reported that the cyclone was packed only with winds sans rains. Pondy recorded 13 mm. It was overcast in
    Chennai for whole two days…with winds. Any details on this?

    • Seems to have crossed near Parangipettai. Chennai AP recorded 65 mm, Nunga could’ve received more

    • November 2000 Cyclone (Cuddalore)

      CDR Karaikal reported open β€˜eye’ at 280800 UTC and closed elliptical β€˜eye’ from 281100 UTC. CDR Chennai reported β€˜open eye’ from 281400 UTC onwards with β€˜eye’ wall 20 km . The eye in the satellite imagery got warmed up to – 16 C with surrounding cold convection with cloud top temperature in the range of –70C to –75 C. Around this time CDR
      Karaikal reported closed circular β€˜eye’ near lat.11.40N/ long. 81.60E and CDR Chennai reported β€˜eye’ near lat.11.50 N / long. 81.50 E with eyewall 20 km wide. Thereafter the cyclone weakened as it interacted with the land

      The cyclone crossed the coast south of Cuddalore (43329 ) at 291130 UTC as a very severe cyclonic storm uprooting big trees at various places in and around Pondicherry and Cuddalore areas, Cuddalore Observatory reported surface pressure of 983.1 hPa. The touring officer indicated that this cyclone crossed just south of Cuddalore. Thus the central pressure is estimated as 978 hPa at the time of landfall. However, the winds experienced over the coastal areas were reported to be of the order of 110-120 Kmph.

      This cyclone after land fall drifted south-westwards and weakened into a depression at 300300 UTC near Kodaikanal (43339) in south Tamil Nadu. Thereafter, it emerged into east Arabian Sea on 1 December as a low pressure system and weakened later. From the information gathered from the affected people in the coastal areas, it was learnt that lull period lasted for a maximum of 45 minutes indicating prevalence of β€˜eye’ which was, however, not seen in the satellite and radar images at that time.

      • Was there another one in Dec 2000? Be’cos I remember one system which frustrated us
        without giving rains even when it crossed near Pondy. There were also reports in the media about this
        peculiar cyclone


        Very Severe Cyclonic Storm:Period of occurrence 26-29th November, 2000Areas affected South Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.Damage(preliminary estimates) Tamil Nadu: disruption of road/rail communication from Cuddalore to some places; uprooting of trees/electrical lines.
        Pondicherry: death of one person;
        Extensive damage to coconut trees/paddy crop.

        source: imd website

      • Dec 2000 was also intense. But before Thane, the strongest cyclone to hit was November 2000 cyclone.

        Next is December 2000 cyclone. It had also beautiful eye.

      • exactly, after 2000 nov, the next severe damage i witnessed in that area was because of thane, but i think thane was more severe, as it caused damage for entire cuddalore dt and pondy

      • In 24 hrs the rainfall was 45 cm at Thozhudhur and 44 cm at Kilacheruvai in Cuddalore district.

      • normally a ride of 35 min from pondy to cuddalore took around 3 hrs that day, because of trees up rooted along the route

      • Thanks PJ…. but somehow, i am missing on this cyclone…which raised
        everyone’s BP…no rains in chennai..fully overcast and windy. I remember
        listening to ‘Maruti suzuki traffic beat’ programme in FM radio for getting
        some live updates about this cyclone…

  16. If any system (LPA / WML/ Depression / DD) forms and becomes stagnant near coast. It will trigger huge TS in interiors. It will create intense TS much more than norwestors.

  17. very severe dec cyclone Thane is d one which s packed with winds nd gives scanty rain over chennai… I think… pondy alone recorded 10cm

      • ohh chennai recorded gud one too… but i think bit less when compared to hype created that time.. straight westward path… any cyclone behaves in d same way in past??

  18. December 23-28, 2000
    Very severe Cyclonic Storm over the bay of Bengal
    90 Knots 167 Kmph
    Three districts of Tamil Nadu state were affected by this storm in the Ramnathanpuram district, 350 houses were damaged in Thirunelveli. Houses damaged – 318. In Tutocorin houses damaged-318, Fishing boats lost – 95, loss to crops – 281 hectares of paddy, 650 hectares of plaintain and 80 hectares of betal destroyed.

    • yes i remember those days.. 3 days school leave during my 8th std…… school ground becomes pond during dat season…

  19. during nov 2000 i was in Cuddalore, and i personally witnessed how a cyclone can cause damages, lot of asbestos roof tops blown over and tress uprooted , it was like a war situation all along the roads, it took 10 days to restore normalcy in those areas,
    thnks for chn rain lover and others for bringing back those memories

  20. I still remember in 1993 December first week a DD crossed karaikal in the afternoon and started moving north in land. That night was horrible with huge amount of thunder storm and massive lightning. I have never heard such a continues thunder and lightning through out the night. Till date that was not beaten.

    That night alone chennai got 18cm.

    Morning I could see sunrise and DD weakened.

    Due to that system Chennai and Coastal TN got good rainfall for 3 days.

  21. GOOD NEWS:

    GFS slowly coming in line with ECMWF, GEM and has raised the intensity of the system and now it is showing Deep Depression east of SL.

  22. 1984 Strong November Cyclone, which was at peak intensity near Chennai. Chennai got 400 mm rainfall in 3 days. (11th November 10 am the rains started and ended at 13th evening. Most of the rains fell in 48 hrs.

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