Dry weather is expected to continue this week. There is a small chance of rain early next week. Need to watch that closely, if not its safe to say that NEM has ended.
Dry weather is expected to continue this week. There is a small chance of rain early next week. Need to watch that closely, if not its safe to say that NEM has ended.
KeaWeather Archives 
Mazhaiye Mazhaiye nee poikaadhe Mazhaiye
Mazhaiye Mazhaiye nee peithuvidu Mazhaiye
Nee poithu vittal naanga varutha paduvom
Nee peyyathirunthal naanga kanneer viduvom
Aga mothathil nee vizhum sathathil indha blog thithikkude
Mazhaiye Mazhaiye
Please sing this sing to the tune of “Koluse Koluse esai padu Koluse” from Chandrabose.
Will that bring the rains back I don’t know
Pouring here..
Positive signs today..no fog dew etc..trisoolam
hills visible from mount station for naked eye..
I have already said good buy in November itself
Light drizzle in pondy now
GFS Parallel expects severe rains for Chennai in 4-5 days. Don’t know if this one would also change. lol
OMG.. If this GFS forecast holds true then we might get good showers in Jan too!
OMG !!! Parangipettai got 16 cm yday did anyone notice ? :O
Yep
Will the GFS parallel prediction come true? And what happened to christmas system and new year system i think ECMWF is picking new year system as monster?
GFS is usually a decent model, but it has recently not been on par.. lol
Yes
So far 170 cm this year.
Many of them noticed even i had mentioned it here.
The People Who Say NEM 14 Is Over They Are Wrong!!!!!!!
1.Temperature Not Dipping Below 24-23
2.Humidity Is High 60-95
3.Moment Of NEM Clouds Are Still There In Sky
So We Have Something To Come So Don’t Lose Hope!!!!!!
Severe rainfall occurred yet again over S TN. I’ll post figures later
ok
All is not lost yet. GFS still predicting upto 165 mm this December until 26th.
Still you follow models?
GFS predicting 20cm of rain till 25th December for chennai and GFS parallel predicting 15.2 cm till 27th December for chennai…
It Will Be Good If It Happens
GFS has predicted around 2500 mm this year for chennai.
My 20th December program will go on unhindered, no issues. Sunny skies.
As for the GFS predictions, nothing sure this NEM. First let it rain for an hour at a stretch.
This easterlies are not effecting chennai because of dry air supply from north India and very good news for chennai!!
On 20 December the dry air will become moist easterlies and a Low pressure area is expected to form in SW BOB and ENE of Sri Lanka and this will bring heavy rains in chennai and upto 14N!!! 😀
Synoptic Chart
Northern Japan was in the grip of a blizzard on December 17 as strong winds and heavy snow forced the cancellation of almost 300 flights and buried vehicles in deep drifts, officials and reports said.
More than 70 centimetres (28 inches) of snow had fallen on parts of the northern main island of Hokkaido in the 24 hours to 0500 GMT, according to the weather agency.
Upper winds at 850hpa
On Sunday 21st December strong to very strong and very high moisture content easterlies will hit chennai and NTN!
Congrats Vela
Everyone posted charts etc about rains this week as well nothing happened. How are people sure of rains around 20th
Rao sir are you there?
Current LOPAR to move in WNW direction chances are high for south tamilnadu.
Sir can you please point out the current position of lpa
Its at adjoining east coast of SL.
Congrats vela sir!
Congrats Vela Sir………….
congratulation to you vela sir,
Hmmmm vela
Congrats Vela 🙂
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2014121718&fh=360&xpos=0&ypos=0
Gfs
Rainfall till 7.30am today in tamilnadu.
Muthupet-88mm
Adirampatnam-82mm
Lalpet-41mm
Kollidam-38mm
Orathanad-35mm
Chidambaram-34mm
Jayankondan-27mm
Sendurai-25mm
Congrats Vela..way to go..
Hi
hi
Congrats Vela!! keep going 🙂
Raining above and below chennai.
due to heaviest snowfall, around 30 people died in Uttarkhand so far this season
Even xmas system crossing at GOM (between SL & STN) according to latest ECMWF forecast.
With this this LF-point (SOI will be around -5 to -10 at xmas time), MJSOI-model will acquire 100% success rate in 2014 in terms of BOB-cyclones’ Landfall.
if gom means, can we expect rain
yes, rains will be due to northern bands
thanks
Rami ecmwf ensemble shows northerly movement of the upcoming system
100%???
No soi will oscillate between 0 and -5
Alert…MJO will be entering phase 3 and later will move towards phase 4 (maritime continent).
So xmas-system will be imitated around SE-BOB adjacent to maritime continent.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Rao,
Is there going to be an Westward propagation, strange???
only 2 models are showing like that.
but majority models indicating eastward propagation towards maritime continent. MJO won’t stay at phase 3 for long time. Immediately it will move towards phase4 (maritime continent), which is BOB’s hot hub for tropical pulses’ genesis.
today also so far it is hide and seek playing time for sun and clouds
Congratulations Vela!!! Great going! ☺
congrats vela sir …!!!!!
Alert…
already good convection building around SE-BOB. All other factors also good. But only worry is the development of Depression/even cyclone around Tahiti, which can make SOI to fall further.
But there 2 strong factors which can prevent this fall in SOI
(1) MJO’s entry to phase 4, will reduce MSLP around Darwin too wrt Tahiti
(2) Nino 1&2 SST will increase (but still will be less than nino 3 & 4) from the present values around 0.2 due to surfacing of the oceanic kelvin wave.
The above 2 factors will off-set the decrease in SOI values caused by strong passage of SPCZ around tahiti.
Overall SOI will hover around -5, which will make the xmas system to cross at GOM (between STN-NSL), which already indicating by ECMWF model. Chennai will get some rains from this xmas system due to northern bands. Intensity of rainfall depends on the intensity of the system.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/cold-wave-claims-24-lives-in-uttarakhand/article6703291.ece
Jupi
can u explain the reasons for SOI to increase towards 0? actually its very difficult to predict this SOI behavior for anyone. but i am trying to understand based on MJO & ONI index (subsurface pacific kelvin wave propagation)
MJO’s entry towards maritime continent
Darwin pressure will fall below 1008 according to ecmwf during the coming days and this will not allow the soi to decrease towards -10
for this reason mentioned SOI will hover around -5, but there won’t be any steep fall due the passage of cyclone near tahiti.
Moreover IOD values might become -ve
Very good chance for the system to climb latitudes, for that it has to intensify, let’s wait and see more than a week time is there
ECMWF ensemble showing initial northerly movement…
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014121712!!/
Alert.. IOD also turned to dead neutral, which also good.
MJO+SOI+IOD turned/will turn good. But still don’t know about the QBO factor.
If Xmas system turns a rain-bearing system, then we could bet on increase (at least around -15 to -10) in December-QBO value, when we get the December QBO-value in January.
Even Vela & guest11k recently “posted the links on stratospheric warming in December & January” (linked to QBO).
IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/iod_1.txt
hmm when we read everything looks good, but final result …………..
let us have a hope this time, “all which started well, will also end well”.
Rami,
Look at this, this one too says westward propagation..
MJO in Phase 3 by 21st as weaker one, then moving in west direction.
Hope the forecasts will change or this is something unique??
Partha,
if MJO travels westward (not favorable for convection to intensify), then SOI will fall down at the time of xmas-system.
But ECMWF model showing some good convection around the xmas-system. This means MJO travel towards phase 4 (east ward).
Rami soi will increase if MJO moves west
Soi will increase rapidly if MJO moves west
how? can u explain? based on IOD?
Yes based on IOD only
but this west-ward motion of MJO is very rare.
any how if MJO is around phase 1-4, then its good for SOI-increase.
Yes its caused by an ERW
Jupi,
From 22nd to 25th a system near Tahiti going to affect, hence the MSLP average will be lower than normal over that region, and higher in Darwin, from short time of 4 days, we can see that SOI increase gradually, but later on it should fall once again, since dry weather has been forecast for Tahiti from 27th onwards.
Darwin MSLP will revolve around 1008 to 1010. No fall expected for the increase in SOI.
There is no chance for any system to come closer to the West or North Coast of Australia, since all systems forming over South Indian Ocean is expected to move towards African coast.
How can you say that SOI will increase based on IOD?
Is it interconnected?
Yes MJO is the king
I am fine with MJO, but why it has to move in westerly direction, due to Rossby Waves?
Yes
It’s over..It’s over…..
Looks like December Dhamaka is going to become Dandanakka
Source?
self source like self confidence
alert…GSLV (mark 3) rocket launch is successful to send astronauts’ chamber into the space.
But still we need to get success for GSLV to launch satellites into geostationary orbits. Hope ISRO will get this success too in near future.
it is also a first step by India to send manned spaceship, the launched one will fall in sea after 30 min or so, and it will be used for further research,
congrats isro, congrats indians
roger out
Synoptic Chart
Upper Winds at 850hpa
it is good for city
Rare catch:A forest official with a Sand Boa, weighing 4.5 kg, seized by a forest flying squad from two persons while it was allegedly being traded, in Thiruvananthapuram on Wednesday.— Photo: S. Mahinsha, The Hindu
The minimum temperature at chennai for the past one week resembles as if we are in first week of october. Vagaries have come out with a forecast of formation of strong circulation giving rains from northern srilanka – south andhra pradesh coast starting from this saturday midnight.
going by the trend there are plenty of scope the rains would continue till first week of jan. already lot of places other than chennai, tiruvallur district getting exceptionally good rains in the last 10 days. only chennai left out.
ss
Where in tiruvallur dist? There has not been much rains in periyapalayam surroundings
GSLV Mark-III launch successful
Main parachutes of CARE module deployed successfully, says ISRO
Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) on Thursday successfully conducted an experimental test-flight of GSLV MK III carrying a crew module, to be used in future manned space missions.
The GSLV Mark III is being projected as Isro’s most advanced launch vehicle capable of injecting heavier satellites like GSAT 19e. The 630.5 tonne rocket has two active solid and liquid propulsion stages, S 200 and L110 respectively in addition to its cryogenic engine C 25 X which in in a passive state.
The Coast Guard has been alerted to track and retrieve the crew module which fell into the Bay of Bengal.
source: t.o.i
please look in to the satellite picture over south easy bay & south andaman sea and near malay peniunsula/gulf of thailand. shows lot of promises of development of minimum of 2 systems soon.
ss
Five things to know about Isro’s GSLV Mark III mission
Successful launch of GSLV Mark III will make Isro self reliant in launching heavier communication satellites
The Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) will launch its first experimental suborbital flight today.
This will be the test launch for Isro’s heaviest and upgraded rocket, the GSLV – Mark III, which is carrying the Crew Module Atmospheric Re-entry Experiment (CARE).
Here are five things we need to know about the GSLV – Mark III mission.
1) After its successful Mars mission, this is Isro’s next step to put a man in space
2) The Rs 155 crore mission has twin purposes — the main purpose is to test the rocket’s atmospheric flight stability with around 4-tonne luggage. The second is to study the re-entry characteristics of the crew module called Crew Module Atmospheric Re-entry Experiment.
3) Other critical technologies are also to be developed for Isro’s manned mission. These are being developed parallelly at other centres. But recovery of the capsule from out of atmosphere will be the first to be tested.
4) GSLV Mark III is the heaviest next generation rocket, conceived and designed to make Isro self reliant in launching heavier communication satellites of INSAT-4 class, which weigh 4,500 to 5,000 kg. Once operational, this rocket will have the capability to ferry four-tonne class of Insat series of communication satellites, which are currently being launched through Arianespace.
5) This is the second mission of the GSLV rocket during the last four years after two such launches failed in 2010.
Big storm band on the way: Should reach Brisbane in 60-90 min at the rate it’s moving.
Anything for periyapalayam?
sorry for Brisbane
😦
Nothing interesting happening in chennai radar..so started to track other countries radar??
There is a cricket match going on there!!
Minimum Temp in Chennai is around 4 degrees above normal.
Nunga 26.0C
Meena 25.0C
An average Indian (factoring in both genders) lived eight years longer in 2009, compared to two decades ago. However, that figure was still three years less than the global average life expectancy (LE).
An average Indian woman lived three years more than her male counterpart in 2009. While a woman lived for 66 years, the LE of an Indian man stood at 63 years. At the turn of the century, an Indian woman lived for 62 years while a man lived till 60.
source; t.o.i
Looks awesome
Definitely not going to ask where
my grandma also in periyapalayam
Where
kalaingar nagar near rallapadi
I’m on the other side of the river
yellapuram?
Radar is very clean
The one went gave less rains to Chennai, lets wait whats in store for the next. 🙂
watchout tis may be our 25th system http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/sat_dat/img/reg/sea2/vis_0500.jpg
both only for stn da
shld be happy tat it is moving twrds tn
We need some good system which is completely missing this NEM to sign off in a grand note!!
lets hope for the best
banda aceh disturbance also under good condition..low shear,high conv and divergence ..
Sel, How to calculate the precipitation in this link?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ARPS_NE_MON.htm
Color Code given next to the MAP with Numbers…
That’s right. But how to calculate the rains?
The number denotes the quantum of rain in mm
Will try to correlate between the AWS of tiruchendur.
u hav exposed one of the secret link .. tis is the advanced near realtime forecast issued by imd for every three hours.. run the animation and u catch the color codes of the precipitation clouds and refer with the scale given at the side.. more or less it will b close to accurate. it gives the idea of precipitation forecast for next three hrs
i dont think it will b applicable for calculating the amount of rains
Ok.
it shows the intensity of rain clouds just as radar
Earlier there used to be slight deviation between GFS and ECMWF output but this time they’re miles apart. Why there’s so much difference this time.
Why exposed, many already knows this
1964 Rameswaram super cyclone – chennai got only drizzles
Currently raining in sirkazhi is my native town
Forecast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14121800/84.html
purely srilanka ans stn
gud mrg partha.. but ecmwf has different view
wats ecmwf view? landfall in ntn ?
gfs hinting on two back to back system.. ecmwf sticks with one system ,HI-RES ecmwf shows system moving close to n.sl by moving nw..tis really turning interesting
Earlier there used to be slight deviation between GFS and ECMWF output but this time they’re miles apart. Why there’s so much difference this time
no idea..tis year gfs is totally differing
Ok. ECMWF has been performing really well from past few months whereas GFS is not up to the mark. SO its better to go with ECMWF. What about you. you’ll go with which model.
Myself will be with naked eye model, in fact it’s windy in chennai from the last 2 days, signs of good things to come
for those who missed the GSLV Mark3 successfully launched from Sriharikota
2 strong circulations one south of andman island and one near gulf of thailand. needs to be tracked. probably at the striking distance for TN. satellite picture shows lot of promise for a development of system soon.
ss
one for ntn and one for stn
Brother u r telling for last 20 days…but no positive signs for chennai…
around 5 north & 93 east. the other one around 6 north & nearly 100 east.
ss
Rami,
If the MJO has emerged into Phase 4 instead of moving in westward direction, we can the see the increased SOI.
MJO in Phase 4, 5, 6 and 7 will increase precipitation in Darwin, this will reduce MSLP below average and increase in Tahiti.
But if MJO moves from Phase 3 to Phase 2, then it is difficult for SOI to march towards ZERO, there may temporary increase from 22nd to 26th, that is due to a system formation near Tahiti. After 26th i see that SOI will be decreasing once again.
At max the SOI can increase upto ZERO till 25th or 26th, then will be back to Negative, unless MJO travels towards Phase 4.
I think system formation near Tahiti will result in decrease in soi, and not increase in soi.
what do you mean, if MSLP drops in Tahiti, then SOI will increase from -5 towards ZERO.
IF MSLP drops in Tahiti it will result in decrease in SOI.
you mean further Negative?
Currently soi is oscillating between -4 and -5. There will be a Depression passing through Tahiti after four days. This will result in decrease in soi( by reducing Tahiti MSLP) and it will go below -5.
i was confused, i have updated above comments and changed….
thanks…
Like Dec11th rains..the coming pulse in bob extending to South AP coast on dec 23rd..
and the Boxing day system disappears.
wait..they will change it frequently & let the current pulse moves first..
moderate circulation likely to emerge east of lanka in next 36 to 48hrs from the big s.bay trough ..
Boxing day system..crossing near South TN/N.SL.. next updates may bring a dramatic change..lets all hope..
System forming near Aceh.
did you see the LOW formation near Darwin, that will bring down the MSLP equal to Tahiti, this should maintain the SOI value closer to -5.
Yes. Also mjo wil be in phase 4 around 26th Dec this will also help in increase in soi.
All models predicting the current pulse as a WML/ Dep stage..but why it gets sheared after nearing the SL coast..& moves towards us as a trough..
Congrats Mr.vela.. we the bloggers are very proud of your presence with us..Keep rocking..
cmc expecting a strong system in arabian sea http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121800/gem_z850_vort_ind_31.png
Looking Good.
kea’s knock by smit
Atlast u knew how put this dolls
How many systems are coming. Everyone are talking of boxing day system now. What is happening before that?
3 ladies from arvinder ashram suicided
Neenga news kodukkardhule swift Shankaran Saar
System moving NW
yes
ecmwf taking n/w…
sale of mbbs and postgraduate seats in medical colleges rakes in about 10K crore in a year in India.
source: t.o.i
Really a bad topic 😦
Then what should topic be? Torrential rain possible today?
Negative topic like this will give good results, so according to me its fine topic
I am not suggesting a topic but i am telling that situation is bad for us
models indications clearly says Thane 2 is possible on 31 december
low in sw bob moved west, heavy rain possible for kanyakumari, tuticorin, tirunelveli, ramnad, delta regions.
imd chennai mid day up date to media
rain possible in one or two places in chennai also,
imd chennai
NEM ended for chennai
Where?
nem still vigorous in stn
in delta regions also
NEM ended in October itself for you
In december month expecting too much rain, in peak november month not rained normal how we expect heavy rain now ,just wait and see if we had a luck or not just wait be patience guys ,last three yrs same story nature has it own style just wait ans see ,don’t go with models
Massive Thunder showers This year:
June 29 – 45 mm in one hour
August 24 – 77mm in 50 minutes
Sep 3- 34 mm in 25 min
October 18- 118 mm in 1 hour 40 min
November 12- 35 mm in 19 min
good research
hi kea i am not getting confirmation mail after registering in the forum to my mail id,can you look into it??
atchu ..pichhu odharre paa!
I think PJ will come out of hiding only during the great VS
Hi guys
The current system is dissapeare
Pa group will get frustrated if it rains in half yearly exam holidays, stage is perfectly set for that
I want heavy rains from 24th dec because my holiday starts and i want a cyclone to Chennai so i can track it in my holidays happily
Yes I also
You too school guy?
Ya
Fine, but you won’t get holidays
They wil ask for holidays to compensate the rainy days during holidays.. Lol
Ha ha
He he
Yes
This easterlies are not effecting chennai because of dry air supply from north India and very good news for chennai!!
On 20 December the dry air will become moist easterlies and a Low pressure area is expected to form in SW BOB and ENE of Sri Lanka and this will bring heavy rains in chennai and upto 14N!!! 😀
Who is supplying the dry air
U only fuel supply ji.. 😉
Odm pledged that to me
He is wholesale supplier.. 😉
Yes he pledged some 60% of that shares to me
morning u posted same cut copy ya>?
On Sunday 21st December strong to very strong and very high moisture content easterlies will hit chennai and NTN!
Source? Doremon
See the image
Ammeen i feel that the trough in SW bay may strengthen by 21st near Srilanka and will become good system, this will get us some rainfall only by 22nd and 23rd.
The intensification may be due to MJO arrival in Phase 3 by 22nd.
Oh
DD?
D possible..
DD lets wait from sometime…
Is it true
For the past 3 years NEM for NTN remains only in the models and not in reality
Hope that upcoming system moves nw or nnw, for that it has to gain some intensity to make a possible move towards n.tn
Dec 28th system?
22nd system..
mean low pressure or new year system
Last week system
wrong message about dry air. if dry air is prevailing the minimum temperature could be around 20 C, whereas the minimum not even touched below 24. Still warm easterlies over chennai and only the prohibiting factor is the upper level winds are not all that ideal to bring rains to city, as both ridges from burma side & omen side hinders that. Probably the incoming western disturbance in a day or two totally clear this and we can hope chennai also get back showers in a day or two.
ss
really feel happy if that happen