1,014 thoughts on “Dry conditions to prevail

  1. Mazhaiye Mazhaiye nee poikaadhe Mazhaiye
    Mazhaiye Mazhaiye nee peithuvidu Mazhaiye
    Nee poithu vittal naanga varutha paduvom
    Nee peyyathirunthal naanga kanneer viduvom
    Aga mothathil nee vizhum sathathil indha blog thithikkude
    Mazhaiye Mazhaiye

    Please sing this sing to the tune of “Koluse Koluse esai padu Koluse” from Chandrabose.

    Will that bring the rains back I don’t know

  2. The People Who Say NEM 14 Is Over They Are Wrong!!!!!!!
    1.Temperature Not Dipping Below 24-23
    2.Humidity Is High 60-95
    3.Moment Of NEM Clouds Are Still There In Sky
    So We Have Something To Come So Don’t Lose Hope!!!!!!

  3. GFS predicting 20cm of rain till 25th December for chennai and GFS parallel predicting 15.2 cm till 27th December for chennai…

  4. This easterlies are not effecting chennai because of dry air supply from north India and very good news for chennai!!
    On 20 December the dry air will become moist easterlies and a Low pressure area is expected to form in SW BOB and ENE of Sri Lanka and this will bring heavy rains in chennai and upto 14N!!! πŸ˜€

  5. Northern Japan was in the grip of a blizzard on December 17 as strong winds and heavy snow forced the cancellation of almost 300 flights and buried vehicles in deep drifts, officials and reports said.

    More than 70 centimetres (28 inches) of snow had fallen on parts of the northern main island of Hokkaido in the 24 hours to 0500 GMT, according to the weather agency.

  6. On Sunday 21st December strong to very strong and very high moisture content easterlies will hit chennai and NTN!

  7. Rainfall till 7.30am today in tamilnadu.


  8. Even xmas system crossing at GOM (between SL & STN) according to latest ECMWF forecast.

    With this this LF-point (SOI will be around -5 to -10 at xmas time), MJSOI-model will acquire 100% success rate in 2014 in terms of BOB-cyclones’ Landfall.

  9. Alert…

    already good convection building around SE-BOB. All other factors also good. But only worry is the development of Depression/even cyclone around Tahiti, which can make SOI to fall further.

    But there 2 strong factors which can prevent this fall in SOI
    (1) MJO’s entry to phase 4, will reduce MSLP around Darwin too wrt Tahiti
    (2) Nino 1&2 SST will increase (but still will be less than nino 3 & 4) from the present values around 0.2 due to surfacing of the oceanic kelvin wave.

    The above 2 factors will off-set the decrease in SOI values caused by strong passage of SPCZ around tahiti.

    Overall SOI will hover around -5, which will make the xmas system to cross at GOM (between STN-NSL), which already indicating by ECMWF model. Chennai will get some rains from this xmas system due to northern bands. Intensity of rainfall depends on the intensity of the system.


  10. Jupi

    can u explain the reasons for SOI to increase towards 0? actually its very difficult to predict this SOI behavior for anyone. but i am trying to understand based on MJO & ONI index (subsurface pacific kelvin wave propagation)

  11. Very good chance for the system to climb latitudes, for that it has to intensify, let’s wait and see more than a week time is there

  12. Alert.. IOD also turned to dead neutral, which also good.

    MJO+SOI+IOD turned/will turn good. But still don’t know about the QBO factor.

    If Xmas system turns a rain-bearing system, then we could bet on increase (at least around -15 to -10) in December-QBO value, when we get the December QBO-value in January.

    Even Vela & guest11k recently “posted the links on stratospheric warming in December & January” (linked to QBO).

    IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/iod_1.txt

  13. Jupi,

    From 22nd to 25th a system near Tahiti going to affect, hence the MSLP average will be lower than normal over that region, and higher in Darwin, from short time of 4 days, we can see that SOI increase gradually, but later on it should fall once again, since dry weather has been forecast for Tahiti from 27th onwards.

    Darwin MSLP will revolve around 1008 to 1010. No fall expected for the increase in SOI.
    There is no chance for any system to come closer to the West or North Coast of Australia, since all systems forming over South Indian Ocean is expected to move towards African coast.

    How can you say that SOI will increase based on IOD?
    Is it interconnected?

  14. alert…GSLV (mark 3) rocket launch is successful to send astronauts’ chamber into the space.

    But still we need to get success for GSLV to launch satellites into geostationary orbits. Hope ISRO will get this success too in near future.

    • it is also a first step by India to send manned spaceship, the launched one will fall in sea after 30 min or so, and it will be used for further research,
      congrats isro, congrats indians

  15. Rare catch:A forest official with a Sand Boa, weighing 4.5 kg, seized by a forest flying squad from two persons while it was allegedly being traded, in Thiruvananthapuram on Wednesday.β€” Photo: S. Mahinsha, The Hindu

  16. The minimum temperature at chennai for the past one week resembles as if we are in first week of october. Vagaries have come out with a forecast of formation of strong circulation giving rains from northern srilanka – south andhra pradesh coast starting from this saturday midnight.

    going by the trend there are plenty of scope the rains would continue till first week of jan. already lot of places other than chennai, tiruvallur district getting exceptionally good rains in the last 10 days. only chennai left out.


  17. Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) on Thursday successfully conducted an experimental test-flight of GSLV MK III carrying a crew module, to be used in future manned space missions.

    The GSLV Mark III is being projected as Isro’s most advanced launch vehicle capable of injecting heavier satellites like GSAT 19e. The 630.5 tonne rocket has two active solid and liquid propulsion stages, S 200 and L110 respectively in addition to its cryogenic engine C 25 X which in in a passive state.

    The Coast Guard has been alerted to track and retrieve the crew module which fell into the Bay of Bengal.

    source: t.o.i

  18. please look in to the satellite picture over south easy bay & south andaman sea and near malay peniunsula/gulf of thailand. shows lot of promises of development of minimum of 2 systems soon.

  19. Five things to know about Isro’s GSLV Mark III mission

    Successful launch of GSLV Mark III will make Isro self reliant in launching heavier communication satellites

    The Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) will launch its first experimental suborbital flight today.

    This will be the test launch for Isro’s heaviest and upgraded rocket, the GSLV – Mark III, which is carrying the Crew Module Atmospheric Re-entry Experiment (CARE).

    Here are five things we need to know about the GSLV – Mark III mission.

    1) After its successful Mars mission, this is Isro’s next step to put a man in space

    2) The Rs 155 crore mission has twin purposes — the main purpose is to test the rocket’s atmospheric flight stability with around 4-tonne luggage. The second is to study the re-entry characteristics of the crew module called Crew Module Atmospheric Re-entry Experiment.

    3) Other critical technologies are also to be developed for Isro’s manned mission. These are being developed parallelly at other centres. But recovery of the capsule from out of atmosphere will be the first to be tested.

    4) GSLV Mark III is the heaviest next generation rocket, conceived and designed to make Isro self reliant in launching heavier communication satellites of INSAT-4 class, which weigh 4,500 to 5,000 kg. Once operational, this rocket will have the capability to ferry four-tonne class of Insat series of communication satellites, which are currently being launched through Arianespace.

    5) This is the second mission of the GSLV rocket during the last four years after two such launches failed in 2010.

  20. An average Indian (factoring in both genders) lived eight years longer in 2009, compared to two decades ago. However, that figure was still three years less than the global average life expectancy (LE).
    An average Indian woman lived three years more than her male counterpart in 2009. While a woman lived for 66 years, the LE of an Indian man stood at 63 years. At the turn of the century, an Indian woman lived for 62 years while a man lived till 60.

    source; t.o.i

  21. 2 strong circulations one south of andman island and one near gulf of thailand. needs to be tracked. probably at the striking distance for TN. satellite picture shows lot of promise for a development of system soon.

  22. Rami,

    If the MJO has emerged into Phase 4 instead of moving in westward direction, we can the see the increased SOI.

    MJO in Phase 4, 5, 6 and 7 will increase precipitation in Darwin, this will reduce MSLP below average and increase in Tahiti.

    But if MJO moves from Phase 3 to Phase 2, then it is difficult for SOI to march towards ZERO, there may temporary increase from 22nd to 26th, that is due to a system formation near Tahiti. After 26th i see that SOI will be decreasing once again.
    At max the SOI can increase upto ZERO till 25th or 26th, then will be back to Negative, unless MJO travels towards Phase 4.

  23. All models predicting the current pulse as a WML/ Dep stage..but why it gets sheared after nearing the SL coast..& moves towards us as a trough..

  24. low in sw bob moved west, heavy rain possible for kanyakumari, tuticorin, tirunelveli, ramnad, delta regions.
    imd chennai mid day up date to media

  25. In december month expecting too much rain, in peak november month not rained normal how we expect heavy rain now ,just wait and see if we had a luck or not just wait be patience guys ,last three yrs same story nature has it own style just wait ans see ,don’t go with models

  26. Massive Thunder showers This year:
    June 29 – 45 mm in one hour
    August 24 – 77mm in 50 minutes
    Sep 3- 34 mm in 25 min
    October 18- 118 mm in 1 hour 40 min
    November 12- 35 mm in 19 min

  27. This easterlies are not effecting chennai because of dry air supply from north India and very good news for chennai!!
    On 20 December the dry air will become moist easterlies and a Low pressure area is expected to form in SW BOB and ENE of Sri Lanka and this will bring heavy rains in chennai and upto 14N!!! πŸ˜€

  28. On Sunday 21st December strong to very strong and very high moisture content easterlies will hit chennai and NTN!

  29. Hope that upcoming system moves nw or nnw, for that it has to gain some intensity to make a possible move towards n.tn

  30. wrong message about dry air. if dry air is prevailing the minimum temperature could be around 20 C, whereas the minimum not even touched below 24. Still warm easterlies over chennai and only the prohibiting factor is the upper level winds are not all that ideal to bring rains to city, as both ridges from burma side & omen side hinders that. Probably the incoming western disturbance in a day or two totally clear this and we can hope chennai also get back showers in a day or two.


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