I am in deep confusion why “tropical storm hagupit” not following N/NW directed steering pattern. Instead hagupit showing consistent W/SW track.
All the steering layers including all outer/inner peripheries (including 200, 450-500, 700 & 850 hpa) showing N/NW pattern.
Note:
I remember that yesterday BOB’s small convection followed steering pattern. Then why can’t a tropical storm follow steering pattern. I think we really needed super computers to understand this puzzle.
Small convection about 30kms to the East of Chennai is developing and moving to the coast. Heavy rain can be expected in an hour if it maintains the momentum.
The HIndu started new column on weather -it appears so –
Today’s forecast: sporadic showers, pleasant weather
====================================================
However, weather models indicate that there will be a decline in rain and there is no weather system over the bay as of now. Chennai has registered 116 cm of rainfall against its annual share of 140 cm, which it largely receives during the northeast monsoon.
“We expect more rain spells for the city to largely cover the lack of rainfall in November. The average rainfall in Chennai during December is 19 cm. But, there have been years when the city received over 27 cm of rainfall as in 2009 and 2010,” said an official.
Chennai registered 42 cm of rainfall in December 2005, which is the highest for the month in the past decade.
Yes, many should follow it, otherwise no use/ importance of rain related comments
I learned by experience one new point that for “any cyclone” to follow “any fundamental principles” first it has to be in good strength. Weak systems can not follow the certain fundamental principles.
We can compare the above concept with “failure satellite launch vehicle”, which will collapse somewhere in the sea due to gravity. In similar style “a failure weak storm” will follow consistent W/SW track (in northern hemisphere) due to earth’s coriolis force.
Finally hagupit comes under lower level flow as Jtwc expected. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO MORE STABLE AIR
AND CONTINUED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. TS 22W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BEFORE TAU 24 AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION, EXCEPT FOR HWRF
WHICH CALLS FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY, OVER-WATER TRACK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION DENOTES LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF THE MEMBERS
REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TS 22W COULD SKIRT THE VIETNAMESE
COAST.
why the same low-level winds (existed yesterday too over BOB) not guided yesterday’s BOB convection into interior TN? Why yesterday’s convection travelled in N/NE direction and skipped NTN?
Why the same low-level winds (existed yesterday too over BOB) not guided yesterday’s BOB convection (which under severe shear effect) into interior TN?
Why yesterday’s sheared convection travelled in N/NE direction and skipped NTN?
Only North and western part of the city has chances of good rain in the afternoon or evening.South and coastal parts of chennai will have hit or miss chance of showers. Overall temp will be high for the next few days.
Salem, Connor, Valpari, Calicut, Mangalore,Goa areas have good chance of rain.
The Arabian sea system will flex it’s muscles in the west coast for the next few days.
As many posts pointed out,all the rains near chennai were in the ocean.
May be the sea water will become less salty and the desalination process will become easy :-).
How to Measure this Ameen? Just keep a bowl or something in middle of the terrace then measure with a scale or a seperate gauge is available for this? btw I am very new to this blog..
metro water lekes rainfall slightly better than chennai city. looks like people are cursing nature and that is why chennai most of the time left out with very less rain. just 50 kms east of chennai, the rainfall was more than 20 centimters and hardly not even 1/10th city has recorded. pitiable figures for chennai city.
Dog kum Dog kum kalyanam panna mazhai varum nu engayo padichen :D.. We chennaites are suffering so much due to this mishaps..I remember back in late 1990’s it used to rain for 4-5 continuos days and everywhere flood in the city..Wish we get atleast once a year..
Convection strengthening over Arabian sea and Coastal KTK getting those benefits.
Mid level ACC developing near Gulf and Adjoining North Africa and it moving in Easterly direction.
rain belt now shifted to ongole & baptala belt. there is a thundershower over 20 KMS north east of chennai. reasonably heavy showers might spread to chennai for few minutes if the clouds move little south west. the bright / sunny weather might create better convection later in the day. Bay of bengal is quite warm to produce more clouds. hope for the best, as chennai yet to receive its normal quota from this trough.
weather for the past 2 days resembles almost october first or second week weather. the start of the NEM season. Going by the trend there is a possibility the easterlies would continue at least till Pongal.
none of the small Popups move towards the city. we could see smaller red dots in bay of bengal around 30 KMS radius. not moving in any direction. convection would further strengthen once the sea breeze becomes strong. may be by 2 PM, showers might come back to city.
It is Land Breeze which faces the Easterlies directly happens only in Night and that’s why in general pattern of NEM rains are normally during Nights & early morning
sea breeze affects the weather over land during SWM season, during NEM season the winds are always from East, so where is the question of sea breeze setting in..
whenever the maximum temperatures over the city just touches 30 + normally sea breeze would be strong. but during NEM easterlies continue to prevail and heat can build convection near the shore. land breeze during nights are little cool and couples with warm sea breeze tends to bring showers during nights/early morning during NEM season. As said, sea breeze generally stronger & trigger thunderstorms during south west monsoon season in greater strength.
ss
KeaWeather Archives 
Hi 🙂
Hi Partner. Only Adam boys are awake 🙂
Look at the rainfall areas between 18-26 december due to Hagupit and might be the next Philipines cyclone http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec6.html
Hi dash and Joseph
Good Morning to all
Hope raining in Chennai?
We cant judge the ts direction
Lots of ts poping up
Good rains in the early hours and its getting dark in the east in Madipakkam.
How much rain gained in madip3
It should be more than 10mm in the nights. so from yesterday it should be atleast 50mm.
We just had drizzles in Teynampet.
Good morning, any chance of rain today?
already chancing!!
drizzling now
I am in deep confusion why “tropical storm hagupit” not following N/NW directed steering pattern. Instead hagupit showing consistent W/SW track.
All the steering layers including all outer/inner peripheries (including 200, 450-500, 700 & 850 hpa) showing N/NW pattern.
Note:
I remember that yesterday BOB’s small convection followed steering pattern. Then why can’t a tropical storm follow steering pattern. I think we really needed super computers to understand this puzzle.
tropical storm hagupit’s steering layers: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time=
JTWC-Hagupit’s track (click on the image): http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif
good rains here in madipakkam
Light rain Ullagaram
8.4mm today in Thalambur/Navalur from a passes shower
Climate is ideal, good rains can be expected today.
Small convection about 30kms to the East of Chennai is developing and moving to the coast. Heavy rain can be expected in an hour if it maintains the momentum.
can.tnau.ac.in/fcast/rain.png
Heavily raining in Adyar Chennai
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/caz_chn.gif
The HIndu started new column on weather -it appears so –
Today’s forecast: sporadic showers, pleasant weather
====================================================
However, weather models indicate that there will be a decline in rain and there is no weather system over the bay as of now. Chennai has registered 116 cm of rainfall against its annual share of 140 cm, which it largely receives during the northeast monsoon.
“We expect more rain spells for the city to largely cover the lack of rainfall in November. The average rainfall in Chennai during December is 19 cm. But, there have been years when the city received over 27 cm of rainfall as in 2009 and 2010,” said an official.
Chennai registered 42 cm of rainfall in December 2005, which is the highest for the month in the past decade.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/todays-forecast-sporadic-showers-pleasant-weather/article6680853.ece
Woww
WoWooi!
Interesting
It must be holiday for Ehsan’s son today for different reasons
Vela,
What could be the reason for “tropical storm hagupit” not to follow N/NW directed steering pattern? Moreover hagupit showing consistent W/SW track.
It is raining at Perungudi, this is the second spell since today morning
No update from PJ. We are missing PJ !!!
Wowooii. Almost reached Central n nice to see a band approaching the city..
Looks like hagupit regenerating in Bob as per recent gfs.
drizzling at kk nagar …little heavy…
alert…tropical storm hagupit almost inching close to Vietnam.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
It will change the direction slightly??
It will follow W/SW track to enter BOB. No chance for N/NW track as indicated by steering pattern.
Which direction will help for us ??
pouring in Adambakkam
Drizzle here also
10 mins now non stop rains here in Adambakkam.. good rains, tatasky signal gone..
Aravindhan Sir…..Please add your location with your name…..like Aravindhan Adambakkam……….
very heavy now…
pls add ur location near name…
Its started to rain in parrys
Ravindran Sir…..Please add your location with your name…..like Ravindran + your location
Yes, many should follow it, otherwise no use/ importance of rain related comments
I learned by experience one new point that for “any cyclone” to follow “any fundamental principles” first it has to be in good strength. Weak systems can not follow the certain fundamental principles.
We can compare the above concept with “failure satellite launch vehicle”, which will collapse somewhere in the sea due to gravity. In similar style “a failure weak storm” will follow consistent W/SW track (in northern hemisphere) due to earth’s coriolis force.
can anyone tell me what is happening in medavakkam
if i come there means i will tell
still here no heavy rain…moderate drizzles…
2cm again in Adam..beautiful complete rainbow over west..don’t miss it
Nice rains in Adam from morning in 2 spells
anymore spells possible’?
Here also good rains
Mazhai in Perambur for the last 30 mins…. Pouring steadily
Finally hagupit comes under lower level flow as Jtwc expected. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO MORE STABLE AIR
AND CONTINUED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. TS 22W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BEFORE TAU 24 AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION, EXCEPT FOR HWRF
WHICH CALLS FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY, OVER-WATER TRACK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION DENOTES LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF THE MEMBERS
REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TS 22W COULD SKIRT THE VIETNAMESE
COAST.
Strong Low level flow indicated by respective color strong flow seen in between Vietnam coast n system . Tis is likely to steer the system twrds sw http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/12/10/basis18/soas/w010/14121021_1018.gif
Sheared system always follows low level flow as v have observed tis in last few years.jtwc expecting tis.. and ecmwf is bang on target for hagupit
Last night gfs dec 21 run..
Good news…
Tropical storm hagupit will follow steady W/SW track to enter BOB.
It won’t be guided by steering patterns’ N/NW-track at any level in its reminder journey.
As per gfs hugupit regenerate in our bob and cross tn coast..hopely waiting..
all levels (irrespective of low/mid/high) showing NW/N outer periphery flows, which doesn’t reflected in hagupit’s W/SW track.
steering winds: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=
JTWC forecasted track indicating consistent W/SW track to brush the extreme S/SE coast of Vietnam.
JTWC track: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif
W/sw track is best for us??
Yes. reason is simple it will avoid direct land interaction, which is not good.
But this W/SW track will keep it partial on open sea waters, which can give consistent moisture supply for its regenration.
Finally ongole hav getting drizzles now.
Decent intensity rains betweenTVT n Korukupet stations .
Here had a good spell, not decent one
tropical storm must be at least to be guided by low-mid level winds. Then only it is eligible to call as tropical storm.
why the same low-level winds (existed yesterday too over BOB) not guided yesterday’s BOB convection into interior TN? Why yesterday’s convection travelled in N/NE direction and skipped NTN?
Sunshine after good rains for 20 mins
how much would have fell
no idea.
Adam’la 2.5cm Partner
Oh.super partner , here until 8.30 am some 2 – 3 cm
Yesterday you told Shiva is not your partner, how can selva from villivakkam area can become your partner
Adhellam unakku puriyadhu Jeetu..idhu enga partners kulla ulla vishayam.. 😀
Best answer to avoid/escape/ignore
Why the same low-level winds (existed yesterday too over BOB) not guided yesterday’s BOB convection (which under severe shear effect) into interior TN?
Why yesterday’s sheared convection travelled in N/NE direction and skipped NTN?
24 hrs old BOB-wind shear map: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=-8
OMG bright sunshine 😦 Please i want rains back….at least a cloudy december weather
I was abt to take that link
Mostly generated out there and lost …………..
Hugupit clearly track w/sw
Deluge of the year may happen on Dec 21, 2014..get ready folks!!! 🙂
deluge of the year.. oh oh..
First you get ready with your catamarans, infact do some over hauling/pooja to you catamarans because that can bring deluge, kan dishti pogum
How any system coming??
Thane – II
Ohh really..by hugupit??
ya ya
Yes from starting i put hopes on hugupit..
What is the difference between Annabelle and AnnaBee?
Annabelle – Feared by all
AnnaBee – Loved by all
lol..
Mr.Gaja, Is this impressive for you??? 😀
anna bee or green bee
vaanga flashu vaanga
Thanga kambeee
thambee thanga kambee nu sollunga
Temperature is hovering around 30 degree Celsius !. i presume that Current Rain may have triggered it.. Quite unusual..
Don’t expect any major cyclone in the reminder of 2014 due to strong -QBO coupled with -ve SOI index (based on quadruple equation).
Thane-2011/Sidr-2007 type cyclone (need either of QBO/SOI in +ve mode) is highly impossible in the reminder NEM-2014 season.
At the maximam “boxing day system” or “any other systems” can become D/DD/minimal cyclone.
Our BOB is in no mood to support any strong system – behaving strangely and keeping us exasperated.
Bright sunshine with heat in the air.
there is a circulation in south BOB, will it move up into a major system?
Something out from Andaman sea
Looking good
I think that is hugupit.
Yes most probably , it shd be
how come so soon?
Not a soon after 15 only..may be 21..
At last some models are showing favour for us .
all models show promises but nothing comes in our favour.
We have to wait sir.
GFS meteogram chennai as predicted by gfs meteogram 1st spell of morning is over! More to come!
Indian team which won the Blind Cricket World Cup felicitated by Sports Minister http://thne.ws/1skwbpK
Struggling to march forward , and btw there is some system close to south Vietnam coast by then
Seems hugupit will enter to our bob.chances are possitive
More popo’s started to from SE of Chennai it will reach chennai!
Hagupit was seen with outflows at 300 hPa last night ….
Indian crew capsule & rocket that could one day carry astronauts to get first trial next week http://thne.ws/1skx0io
Precipitation accumulation (IMD) about to reach chennai and rain wasted in sea hope in tomorrow’s accumulation the red accumulation may be in chennai
thambi what are u trying to tell
moral is accumulation waste aaga koodathu
Only North and western part of the city has chances of good rain in the afternoon or evening.South and coastal parts of chennai will have hit or miss chance of showers. Overall temp will be high for the next few days.
Salem, Connor, Valpari, Calicut, Mangalore,Goa areas have good chance of rain.
The Arabian sea system will flex it’s muscles in the west coast for the next few days.
As many posts pointed out,all the rains near chennai were in the ocean.
May be the sea water will become less salty and the desalination process will become easy :-).
I am living in north chennai so i have good chance of rain??
OMG from day before yesterday till now my terrace RG Recorded 60MM!(North chennai l
How to Measure this Ameen? Just keep a bowl or something in middle of the terrace then measure with a scale or a seperate gauge is available for this? btw I am very new to this blog..
See this image of RG u will understand same I have my uncle gifted me 🙂
Thanks….
No probs, U can make it your own RG see many video’s are there in YouTube see that
Dear Sarathy this website will help you – http://www.wikihow.com/Build-a-Rain-Gauge
See this also
Ayoo i saw in Ebay and its around 1500 INR..Edachu cheap ah kedaikuma or used ones?? 😛
I don’t know about that….
Do you know about Coco gauge ameen?
If you buy means you should keep in your centre of your garden or terrace no other water should fall in your rain guage 😀
Xiaomi banned from selling, importing phones in India: Report
Hehe
MJO has weakened from Phase 7, and ending its propogation in the same phase, expecting it to revive in
Phase 2 or 3 in next 2 weeks time.
Kelvin wave expected to emerge in Phase 1 by today and expected in Phase 2 by 14th.
Once it reaches Phase 2, it is expected to weaken. If this
metro water lekes rainfall slightly better than chennai city. looks like people are cursing nature and that is why chennai most of the time left out with very less rain. just 50 kms east of chennai, the rainfall was more than 20 centimters and hardly not even 1/10th city has recorded. pitiable figures for chennai city.
ss
for hagupit to travel to TN coast or trigger pulse in bay it has to move more in sea than land..in that case more rains will be dumped into sea
Dog kum Dog kum kalyanam panna mazhai varum nu engayo padichen :D.. We chennaites are suffering so much due to this mishaps..I remember back in late 1990’s it used to rain for 4-5 continuos days and everywhere flood in the city..Wish we get atleast once a year..
Convection strengthening over Arabian sea and Coastal KTK getting those benefits.
Mid level ACC developing near Gulf and Adjoining North Africa and it moving in Easterly direction.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nhacsatimg.htm
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=
wat is he doing
click on the video
super. but reel or real
Mitchell Johnson Bouncer Hits Virat Kohli, Hearts Skip a Beat
more than 2500 schools declared holiday for pongal in new jersy USA
India last among BRICS in Web index
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-last-among-brics-in-web-index/article6680603.ece?homepage=true
June 21 – declared world yoga day – modi effect
Global Warming Times: Storm brings record rain to New York. For more see http://www.globalwarmingtimes.com
rains in December? Something seriously wrong
rain belt now shifted to ongole & baptala belt. there is a thundershower over 20 KMS north east of chennai. reasonably heavy showers might spread to chennai for few minutes if the clouds move little south west. the bright / sunny weather might create better convection later in the day. Bay of bengal is quite warm to produce more clouds. hope for the best, as chennai yet to receive its normal quota from this trough.
ss
what is normal quota?
69% in TN
between 5 & 10 centimeters for trough/low pressure systems.
ss
Vela sir s thr any chance f rain n sankari (salem)…ystdy we recve mre thn 1 cm rain.
Chances are light rains is there for today & tomorrow after 3pm onwards
we had totally approx 20 mm past 48 hours
You can follow this link daily…. to get knowledge of rains in your place
Shankran super active today with flash news
late ah. absent podatta
With perks
kuchi mittai kooda kidayadhu
Whats up guys, couple of torrential drizzles, followed by heat and humidity! Any more rains on the way? or thats it.
no more whats up. Only whatapp is –
Get Off WhatsApp, Army Tells its Men After Unsigned Messages Appear on Social Media
so lets enjoy the heat again.
46 mm recorded in my RG till now since the spell started in the wee hours of Wednesday..
My 60MM science Tuesday night
science padipa, exam iruku illa
My exams starts on Monday:-D
Villivakkam crossed 50MM (52MM so far)
Kohli on 98…
you too…….. its my duty
100
yes kohli 100…
sadham adithan sharma purushan
100 in first test match as a captain..
utthama purushan appo..
How many places in chennai crossed 50MM in December? Any idea?
impossible to find out
My area 60MM
Totally from dec 1st to dec 11th 2014 my RG 65MM
weather for the past 2 days resembles almost october first or second week weather. the start of the NEM season. Going by the trend there is a possibility the easterlies would continue at least till Pongal.
ss
none of the small Popups move towards the city. we could see smaller red dots in bay of bengal around 30 KMS radius. not moving in any direction. convection would further strengthen once the sea breeze becomes strong. may be by 2 PM, showers might come back to city.
ss
sea breeze, during NEM season???
NEM season?
It is Land Breeze which faces the Easterlies directly happens only in Night and that’s why in general pattern of NEM rains are normally during Nights & early morning
Bright and sunny…
maisuh,
sea breeze affects the weather over land during SWM season, during NEM season the winds are always from East, so where is the question of sea breeze setting in..
kohli out at 115, india 367/5
Oh so sad
GREAT INNINGS!!!
Wat do u think guys on a lpa that has been present south of srilanka?
whenever the maximum temperatures over the city just touches 30 + normally sea breeze would be strong. but during NEM easterlies continue to prevail and heat can build convection near the shore. land breeze during nights are little cool and couples with warm sea breeze tends to bring showers during nights/early morning during NEM season. As said, sea breeze generally stronger & trigger thunderstorms during south west monsoon season in greater strength.
ss