998 thoughts on “Chennai’s long dry spell finally ends

  1. Chennai receives less rain compare to SAP now but it doesn’t matter NEM is active upto Nellore latitude even more

  2. Massive rainfall in Nellore district. Rainfall in mm
    Chinthavaram – 132
    Kovur – 127
    Konduru – 101
    Butchireddypalayam – 90
    Vakadu – 77
    Vidyanagar – 77
    Marlupalli – 63
    Ithampadu – 60
    Ashnapuram – 50
    Chillakur – 48
    Kondagunta – 47
    Allur – 39
    Sangam – 38

  3. Evlo naal indha mazhai continue agum? Can we atleast get Cholavaram,Redhills and Puzhal lakes get filled by 10% more? I really feel proud to be a part of this blog as ellorum mazhai varanum nu vendringa..Hatsoff….

  4. Vry slow moving strms…pity that once again chennai missed it…cud hve been meaningful rains…but still we hve time till tmrw to get rains…

    • This is the power of SOI value. Even MJO amplitude >2 doesn’t do good for NTN/SAP.

      But now see how the increase in SOI above -5 initiated rain wave for SAP/NTN.

  5. After many days of expectations from strong and persistent desired hearts and several experts analysis …we ended up with little showers… very very bad 😦

  6. Partha,

    Have u seen today’s Big-B comment (as follows) interlinking MJO/SPCZ and SOI, which is very close to ur recent view (but with some variation in MJO phases)?

    Courtesy BigB (arctic forum):
    The weak active phase of the MJO is now approaching the Central Pacific (Phase 7). The active phase of the MJO is currently enhancing the SPCZ, which happens to be almost directly over Tahiti. This pattern is expected to remain in place for for the next several days, and may result in weak negative daily SOI values during that time. Based on current observations and forecasts, the 30 day avg may start slowly dropping again by mid week, possibly continuing into the weekend.

    SIDE NOTE: When the active MJO is moving through the Western and Central Pacific (phases 6 and 7), it can significantly enhance convection associated with the SPCZ. When the active MJO is over the the eastern Maritime Continent (end of phase 5) or moving into the Eastern Pacific (beginning of phase 8 ), it can also enhance the SPCZ, but to a lesser degree.


    • wow, that was my prediction too couple of days back on SOI to remain marginally negative.
      see yesterday’s value, that Tahiti MSLP has reduced and Darwin increased, this is what i said few days back.

      Why there is an increase in Darwin, a LOW forming over East coast of Australia, this has caused MSLP to increase over Darwin which in northern part of Australia.

      • Still slight variation in MJO phases vs SPCZ/SOI than we thought earlier. I am trying to understand this very carefully.

        Is it appropriate to interlink the HPA formation near Darwin by interpreting with MJO-phase at 6?

  7. Heavy rainfall warning for TN till 12th as per IMD.

    Also there is a possibility that at around 20N there may be an interaction of WD with Easterly Wave, this may cause Thunderstorms to form over MP, Maha, Chattisgarh, Punjab and Haryana and UP from 13th onwards. This is due to an elongated trough from easterlies extending from SE arabian sea to north MP. This is the cause for Easter Wave to Interact with WD at 20N latitude from 13th.

  8. Alert…

    SOI forecasted to decrease from mid-this week according to arctic forum. If this happens then SOI will again oscillate between -5 to -10 at the time of “Hagupit” nears TN coast.

    So again “hagupit” will miss the NTN coast. For this reason NAVEGAM & other models indicating it to enter GOM/SL again 😦

  9. Observation,

    If you compare the past half an hour WV insat picture, we will know that WD from Eastern Europe pushing the bay convection towards East, so there was a convection nearing our coast, but it has been pushed by WD and when nearing the coast the convection is weakening.

  10. Dear Bloggers,

    Please observe my comment on WD below, i want all of you go through it.

    Open WV insat in one tab and after half an hour the next update, open the same link in another tab without disturbing the first one.

    Now if you compare both the tabs, the old one and new one, you will see that WD is pushing our convection towards east.

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