607 thoughts on “Isolated showers possible today

  1. I am in deep confusion why “tropical storm hagupit” not following N/NW directed steering pattern. Instead hagupit showing consistent W/SW track.

    All the steering layers including all outer/inner peripheries (including 200, 450-500, 700 & 850 hpa) showing N/NW pattern.

    Note:
    I remember that yesterday BOB’s small convection followed steering pattern. Then why can’t a tropical storm follow steering pattern. I think we really needed super computers to understand this puzzle.

    tropical storm hagupit’s steering layers: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time=

    JTWC-Hagupit’s track (click on the image): http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214.gif

  2. Small convection about 30kms to the East of Chennai is developing and moving to the coast. Heavy rain can be expected in an hour if it maintains the momentum.

  3. The HIndu started new column on weather -it appears so –

    Today’s forecast: sporadic showers, pleasant weather
    ====================================================
    However, weather models indicate that there will be a decline in rain and there is no weather system over the bay as of now. Chennai has registered 116 cm of rainfall against its annual share of 140 cm, which it largely receives during the northeast monsoon.

    β€œWe expect more rain spells for the city to largely cover the lack of rainfall in November. The average rainfall in Chennai during December is 19 cm. But, there have been years when the city received over 27 cm of rainfall as in 2009 and 2010,” said an official.

    Chennai registered 42 cm of rainfall in December 2005, which is the highest for the month in the past decade.

    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/todays-forecast-sporadic-showers-pleasant-weather/article6680853.ece

  4. Vela,

    What could be the reason for “tropical storm hagupit” not to follow N/NW directed steering pattern? Moreover hagupit showing consistent W/SW track.

  5. I learned by experience one new point that for “any cyclone” to follow “any fundamental principles” first it has to be in good strength. Weak systems can not follow the certain fundamental principles.

    We can compare the above concept with “failure satellite launch vehicle”, which will collapse somewhere in the sea due to gravity. In similar style “a failure weak storm” will follow consistent W/SW track (in northern hemisphere) due to earth’s coriolis force.

  6. Finally hagupit comes under lower level flow as Jtwc expected. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
    FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
    THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO MORE STABLE AIR
    AND CONTINUED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. TS 22W IS
    EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BEFORE TAU 24 AND
    SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
    IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION, EXCEPT FOR HWRF
    WHICH CALLS FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY, OVER-WATER TRACK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
    MEAN SOLUTION DENOTES LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF THE MEMBERS
    REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TS 22W COULD SKIRT THE VIETNAMESE
    COAST.

  7. Good news…

    Tropical storm hagupit will follow steady W/SW track to enter BOB.

    It won’t be guided by steering patterns’ N/NW-track at any level in its reminder journey.

    • why the same low-level winds (existed yesterday too over BOB) not guided yesterday’s BOB convection into interior TN? Why yesterday’s convection travelled in N/NE direction and skipped NTN?

  8. What is the difference between Annabelle and AnnaBee?
    Annabelle – Feared by all
    AnnaBee – Loved by all
    lol..
    Mr.Gaja, Is this impressive for you??? πŸ˜€

  9. Temperature is hovering around 30 degree Celsius !. i presume that Current Rain may have triggered it.. Quite unusual..

  10. Don’t expect any major cyclone in the reminder of 2014 due to strong -QBO coupled with -ve SOI index (based on quadruple equation).

    Thane-2011/Sidr-2007 type cyclone (need either of QBO/SOI in +ve mode) is highly impossible in the reminder NEM-2014 season.

    At the maximam “boxing day system” or “any other systems” can become D/DD/minimal cyclone.

  11. Precipitation accumulation (IMD) about to reach chennai and rain wasted in sea hope in tomorrow’s accumulation the red accumulation may be in chennai

  12. Only North and western part of the city has chances of good rain in the afternoon or evening.South and coastal parts of chennai will have hit or miss chance of showers. Overall temp will be high for the next few days.
    Salem, Connor, Valpari, Calicut, Mangalore,Goa areas have good chance of rain.
    The Arabian sea system will flex it’s muscles in the west coast for the next few days.
    As many posts pointed out,all the rains near chennai were in the ocean.
    May be the sea water will become less salty and the desalination process will become easy :-).

  13. MJO has weakened from Phase 7, and ending its propogation in the same phase, expecting it to revive in
    Phase 2 or 3 in next 2 weeks time.

    Kelvin wave expected to emerge in Phase 1 by today and expected in Phase 2 by 14th.
    Once it reaches Phase 2, it is expected to weaken. If this

  14. metro water lekes rainfall slightly better than chennai city. looks like people are cursing nature and that is why chennai most of the time left out with very less rain. just 50 kms east of chennai, the rainfall was more than 20 centimters and hardly not even 1/10th city has recorded. pitiable figures for chennai city.

    ss

    • for hagupit to travel to TN coast or trigger pulse in bay it has to move more in sea than land..in that case more rains will be dumped into sea

    • Dog kum Dog kum kalyanam panna mazhai varum nu engayo padichen :D.. We chennaites are suffering so much due to this mishaps..I remember back in late 1990’s it used to rain for 4-5 continuos days and everywhere flood in the city..Wish we get atleast once a year..

  15. rain belt now shifted to ongole & baptala belt. there is a thundershower over 20 KMS north east of chennai. reasonably heavy showers might spread to chennai for few minutes if the clouds move little south west. the bright / sunny weather might create better convection later in the day. Bay of bengal is quite warm to produce more clouds. hope for the best, as chennai yet to receive its normal quota from this trough.

    ss

  16. weather for the past 2 days resembles almost october first or second week weather. the start of the NEM season. Going by the trend there is a possibility the easterlies would continue at least till Pongal.

    ss

  17. none of the small Popups move towards the city. we could see smaller red dots in bay of bengal around 30 KMS radius. not moving in any direction. convection would further strengthen once the sea breeze becomes strong. may be by 2 PM, showers might come back to city.

    ss

  18. whenever the maximum temperatures over the city just touches 30 + normally sea breeze would be strong. but during NEM easterlies continue to prevail and heat can build convection near the shore. land breeze during nights are little cool and couples with warm sea breeze tends to bring showers during nights/early morning during NEM season. As said, sea breeze generally stronger & trigger thunderstorms during south west monsoon season in greater strength.
    ss

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