Big hopes were placed on this system. As much as 150 mm was expected, but looks like it might entirely give Chennai a miss. Wait for rain continues for Chennai.
Big hopes were placed on this system. As much as 150 mm was expected, but looks like it might entirely give Chennai a miss. Wait for rain continues for Chennai.
KeaWeather Archives 
Good morning all .As i see the topic , let’s understand that Nature has its own way of balancing things. Let’s help in planting more trees , saving trees that are already there .Without doing anything to Nature/environment , i think it wouldnt be prudent enough to always ask.
ATrees are receptors of rain. We cut trees and cut receptors and finally blame something called Luck
What is the science behind tree and rain
Today’s topic was supposed to be created by PJ. I think he waited and waited for the rains to begin.
sel cyclone prediction good but nothing all worst
Cool
low pressure area forming near sl or sw bob is not good for Chennai,it should be east central bob between south Andhra and ntn
He has not predicted any rains at all…
bbc never failed in asia what s ur thought
I haven’t used BBC for forecasting purpose.
after 2 days Chennai getting some clouds ,
In weather no one can say when rain will start and end.
very worst Nov in recent yeas coming to an end. I think Dec is also like this only because Dec rains are restricted to STN only.
One thing to learn from this system is not to be over confident. If some model says no rains for us, it will be for some reason only. This is not the time to pick and chose the models based on rain. BBC was the worst model for over a year now and I was surprised how everyone blindly believed it’s forecasts for this system.
bbc better than u kea
Cool
Yeah
Anomalies rule… We have seen above normal SWM for nearly a decade while NEM is a lottery. The tone for NEM is set in the first 3 weeks. If we don’t cross 750 mm it ends up in a deficit.
Why the two monsoons are so different. Is there any manual interference in these systems?
There is a another band around 13 N, 600 km east.. What would that do?
600 km away? It will dissipate during morning hours
yes kea….that would dissipate
Surely our monsoon can’t be this bad. Hopefully there is some light at the end of the tunnel. We have waited and waited but no luck.
GFS has removed the Dec 2nd week cyclone. No positive signs yet in forecasts.
Chennai has witnessed worse NEM’s than this. Will we get anymore rains this monsoon? I am not sure.
I think you typed, what I wanted to. This system looks so tired and laid back…and whatever little it has, is falling in the sea. Not sure whether we have any more rains. I suppose the key reason is SST is not favouring us anymore.
when kea predicts rain there is no rainin Chennai worst model of india
Lol
System is dying? ??
Look at this no cloud cover any more at sea
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor/big.htm
End of NEM 2014 for chennai?
Synoptic Chart
Omg where is the system its almot lossing..
Satellite image update.
where is pj?sir?he told there will be a big ball near our coast?
Yes it is there near Pondy
when is our chance?any rains possible?
During karthigai deepam… V can expect some rains but not heavy.
why still nothing?has the system died?
No support from other parameters
it looks like tis year also a repeat of 2013
This year is good as a NEM. V have got some good rains in Oct and first half of Nov. It comes to near normal.
2005,2011 best in decade dd and nisha
Very rare, v can’t expect every time for excess rain from nature.
What v give to nature will get back to us.
yes
see deepak what has happend. Itold u earlier our chances are slim….
System lost strength? Could see cloud mass disappeared in many place in sea..
OLR
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/olr.jpg
core missing chennai
The system cant be written off yet. Leaving the quantum of rains aside, it is definitely not moved south as predicted by models and chennais chances are still there
will the ts in the radar Reach Us?
Wind direction are fromNE to SW
ts means what sir
Thunderstorm or thunder shower
No deepak. Stop dreaming about rains. Conditions not right for us to get rains this NEM. I think we will surely get bumper next year.
still 20 days left let us b positive..Madhan.
December is very tough to predict as normally rains don’t favor NTN the HPA will dip more and with dry air and cold engulfing Indian sub continent rains will be confined to STN
Good morning, it’s very disheartening. Sitting here in the farm, I am wondering where all the cows in this area are going to graze as already the grass is turning brown. Normally this is not the case in karthigai. Then comes the farming. Unmindful pumping of water from wells irrespective of water level is making matters worse. Of course it’s survival for them. Where this is going to end?
Please rename your user ID with place. So that easy to understand where you are
V need to plan ourselves to increase ground water level.
If u take CHENNAI, even though it has rained near Normal average. There is no sufficient water in lakes.
No one has taken care of save water from Govt side or from Public Side.
Hey guys see pondy is in for a treat today
To kea- All the models are wrong for this system..Bearing few no one is over confident..again I am telling prediction doesn’t mean over confident..if that is the case you have been predicting no rains for almost all the systems..i remember when PJ,Patha predicted rains on oct-17,18 you said it wont rain..but it rained..,like this many cases ur prediction of no rains also failed…but we haven’t said you are over confident about stating no rains in Chennai…
That’s all I want to tell if god wills anything can happen it may become depression also and cross Tamil nadu and may give massive rains to chennai… Or it may dissapate also anything can happen don’t trust models, believe in God and pray for rain think your own positive forecast it will come true 🙂
Dear mates
Goggled about trees and rain. Found in scientific American as follows.. .
Do Rain Forests Make Rain?
Long-standing assumption: rain forests are a consequence of heavy rainfall. New hypothesis: some forested regions may produce conditions that lead to heavy rainfall. This “biotic pump” model contends that a vast forest such as the Amazon draws in large amounts of water vapor. Evaporation and condensation of the acquired water lead to a local atmospheric pressure drop. That decrease causes rain and attracts more water vapor to the forest, in a continuous positive feedback loop. “This theory could explain why continental interiors with huge rain forests remain so moist,” says Wildlife Conservation Society researcher Douglas Sheil, who in an April Bioscience paper revived the biotic pump model, originally proposed in 2006 by Anastassia Makarieva and Victor Gorshkov, both at the Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute in Russia. “It could also underline the dangers of widespread deforestation.
Now, u have understand y v need trees…
Yes
Thanks for your effort for searching in net. I appreciate it
Pacific system gaining lattitude present 12.8..
Where it will land
Today it will cross viatnam..
Night 10 arround
Now its time for no rain group surely we will back with rains this afternoon and our time will start till that we will listen
Tamil Nadu and Kerala are having vast difference in Deforestation and so as in monsoon rains
Kerala always getting normal rainfall… In fact excess too
Temperatures in Canada hit minus 41 F at Old Crow, Yukon, and at Deadman Valley and Lindberg Landing, N.W.T.
Vela ehat abot present.pacific system??it will come.to in our bob after dissipate??
It will come, but no chance of rain for us. It may move to odhisa.
Yes looking like that…i think it will become cyclone by our bob
Vela last night that system take sharp turn to w/nw track..present it continues same track..
There is good convergence values taking place over north coastal TN and showers reaching to chennai is still delay and could reach by late noon or evening.
Cheyyur to kollidam coast will have good rains today.
Pondy is battering now….!! Thunderstorms forming in chennai latitude will it reache chennai that i doubt
RADAR UPDATE
Many of us have been criticizing GFS for bringing out negative and “bad” forecast. Looking at the turnout of events, it is right on par with ECMWF. Hats off to those 2 models.
Hi no school today
Hi I have school
ya i too
Susa…i still think there is a decent chance of rains….the system has not moved South as per GFS right?
It has started moving SW
is it?then how the radar showing ts still?
SW movement means will it enter GOM
if it enter in GOM,,,then we will have massive rains…
Yes it is likely to enter GOM because it lies over 11 N AND 81 E so it has 98 percent chance to go into GOM!
Susa,
How early these models can able to predict a tropical disturbance’s intensity and track (especially in our BOB)? I think its maximum 2-3 days in advance.
Can’t we able to know the models’ 2-3 days forecast outcome by seeing satellite pictures in regular intervals?
Sir now system lies over 11 N AND 81 E likely to move SW can it enter GOM if it enters GOM means heavy rains for chennai is sure
Its better to focus on next system. whatever the rains we get will be bonus rains 🙂
It is likely to enter GOM because of SW movement! Cheers chennai will be pounded!
Venam. Valikudhu. Aludhuduvaen
Dei apdiya odidu… Olunga schooluku poda..
Today leave for me
Inime yedukum vaipu illa,., enjoy the winter,,,, hope chennai break the coldest night barrier,,.
Both are good in predicting rains for our region.
Vela, how come they good in predicting November 1st week system (91B)? They predicted cat.2 cyclone hitting at NTN/SAP.
But what really happened to 91B? It died in the open waters.
Comparing other models, ecwmf and gfs is somewhat good, it gives us something …
By knowing SOI-movement we can estimate the real scenario to near accuracy. Decrease in SOI is not good for BOB-tropical systems. Very rarely only decrease in SOI (if it has strong support in MJO/IOD/QBO effect) will aid tropical disturbance.
AP-1977 cyclone is such a rare cyclone, which can occur once in 100yrs.
Even present BOB system surprised everyone by entering SW-BOB (initially all models shown Arabian ocean entry). But finally decrease in SOI coupled with strong -ve QBO completely halted the present BOB-system’s intensity.
the ts in the radar intensifying….
Cuddalore 20mm till 5.30am
where was the last system?it gave massive rains..why not this?
due 2 that hpa..
only light rain in pondy. huge dissappointment
How radar show yellow spot on pondy and cuddlore
yesterday yellow spots give light rains only
i will change my forecast …
i told 150mm..
now 5mm
190mm
Even 5mm not possible
ok..o.5mm?
Rammb site removed 92b invest track just now..
still they are expecting massive rains…(gfs)
these 2 pics shows heavy rain for Chennai,,how?
System likely to move SW into GOM if it stays 2 days in GOM chennai will be pounded! Pray for this like situation!
ohh
My forecast is 100mm for chennai from is system
still r u believing?
when rain start in chennai:-(
not likely as of now,,
Million dollar question
search in Google..
😛
omg what a comedy
ts in radar move what direction
Check using radar animation & decide with ur judgement…
bye guys i have school….
yes
s?what
west-pacific system: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=21W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
Rao sir seems it will go n.ap??
it will weaken after land interaction. so it will travel W/SW after making landfall over Vietnam.
Present its direction also w/nw direction.some.models are expecting this system will disppates land after cross.
but it will dump its energy over gulf of Thailand, where fresh convection will build up
Then it will take another 1week to enter our bob after two land fall interaction..right?
How many days it will take to enter our bob??
Rip NEM (for chennai region )
Waiting for SWM in chennai….come soon 2015
So putting an end card! ?
NW movement seen to the system.
bye guy I have schl today
Heavy rain at Cuddalore -Holiday declared for schools
still bbc predicts Rains for chennai
Please read the featured comment from kea about BBC
Only 140 comments show the present situation
Sir system likely to enter GOM because of SW movement
Even in that case also There won’t be any rains in chennai .. system has lost it’s intensity.. nothing possible from now. Luck might give us few drizzles
Its does not necessarily mean system in GOM should give widespread rains to TN. when the current system at present latitude not able to give rains how it will give the same at GOM. This year parameters are not favorable for NEM which we will get a picture when the NEM season ends. But this year is not so bad compared to last year and NEM as a whole has given good rains for STN which is not a failure.
Totally down and sad today. Have lot of faith But lost completely now.
Waiting for our future system is waiting at vieatnam..
Any luck from Pacific system for us? ?
Yes..chance are more but have to wait one more week
Waiting for PJ sir to shed some light on future scenario
Today night pacific system will cross at vitnam..
@murali Duran,
In what sense is BBC prediction better than mine? They have been predicting deluge for Chennai past 2-3 days.
Even last year their predictions were horribly wrong. I guess they predicted both Helen and lehar to crash into Chennai. Helen went to n.AP and Lehar finally turned out to be the biggest joke of the decade ..
Pacific system.SINLAKU
This system movement west from past six hours..it will cross today midnight..
New topic maybe brings change of luck
http://blog.keaweather.org/2014/11/chennais-last-hope-for-rains-ends-today/
I think NEM is over for chennai?