Chennai’s last hope for rains from the LPA ends today

If Chennai has to get rains from this system, it has to be today as the Low Pressure will be at its closest proximity to Chennai. This system has turned out to be mystery as it has baffled weather models, IMD and bloggers with its track. I hope one of the northern bands extends to Chennai. The ECMWF Precipitation Chart for Saturday night is given below.
ECMWF Saturday 15 GMT

1,428 thoughts on “Chennai’s last hope for rains from the LPA ends today

  1. A quick update as of 0000UTC ( i.e. 5.30am Indian time)
    CIMSS shows the system just coming out of the ICU stage.
    1.850mb vorticity has regained a bit of its shape.
    2.It seems to be also showing some signs of convergence and divergence
    3.Vorticity seems to be hovering around the NE tip of Srilanka.

    The poor guys seems to have gone through lots of shear and is entering a low shear zone.
    This does not mean rains for Chennai,but my guess is Delta to Chid to cdl may still get some more rains for the next 6-12 hrs.

  2. Partha sri would have been the most dissapointed person …bad luck man..horrible system….infact everyone is dissapointed

    • According to me the all time horrible system is Cyclone Jal and Nilam. Nilam, more so on the day of landfall. This system is not all that bad. It is still alive and anything can happen.

  3. if anybody noticed today morning it was quite heavy wind gust than last four days..it seems the lpa may develop into D soon,

  4. Where is PA Group? Without Susa, Ameen blog is not active……I think, they would have gone to school…………

    • If it does not rain till tomorrow. We have to appreciate him. He stood all alone. Then Ehsan too who joined him after seeing cola 0 mm

      • Be positive……..nature has some own calculations and we have to digest it……PJ is always accurate and let us hope, we should expect rain this time too……….still time is left………….If God is willing, then we will get rains…………

  5. if this system is fighting for survival, lets help to buit it up buy giving positive vibes. Adding to that its still active and producing rains below pondy hope all agree..

  6. Vela the system moved NW and thats the biggest victory. It was a difficult system to predict. Sad thing it did not extend into Chennai

  7. so Chennai should get its quota soon..IMD.. The chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:
    TAMIL NADU: Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam Dist) 13, Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram Dist) 10, Tiruchendur (Toothukudi Dist) 9, Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist) 8, Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist), Tondi (Ramanathapuram Dist) 7 each, Tuticorin (Toothukudi Dist), Ramanathapuram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Thoothukudi port AWS (Toothukudi Dist), Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Vilathikulam (Toothukudi Dist), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Ramnad nicra (Ramanathapuram Dist), Satankulam (Toothukudi Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist) 5 each, Pattukottai (Thanjavur Dist), Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), R.s.mangalam (Ramanathapuram Dist), Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist) 4 each, Mudukulatur (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kayathar arg (Toothukudi Dist), Illayangudi (Sivaganga Dist), Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist), Sivaganga (Sivaganga Dist), Palayamkottai (Tirunelveli Dist), Radhapuram (Tirunelveli Dist), Ottapadiram (Toothukudi Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist), Kamudhi arg (Ramanathapuram Dist), Manamadurai (Sivaganga Dist), Devakottai (Sivaganga Dist), Kovilpatti (Toothukudi Dist) 3 each, Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist), Karaikudi (Sivaganga Dist), Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist), Maniyachi (Toothukudi Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Nagapattinam (Nagapattinam Dist), Tirupuvanam (Sivaganga Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Surangudi (Toothukudi Dist), Kovilpatti AWS (Toothukudi Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist), Tirupathur (Sivaganga Dist), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist), Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Karaikal (Karaikal Dist) 2 each, Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar Dist), Lower kothaiyar arg (Kanyakumari Dist), Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Melur (Madurai Dist), Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist), Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist), Chittampatti (Madurai Dist), Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist), Sivagiri (Tirunelveli Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Perungalur (Pudukkottai Dist), Trangambadi(or)tranqueb (Nagapattinam Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist), Kanyakumari (Kanyakumari Dist) 1 each

  8. One thing to note is that we can say conditions are favorable for rain today. But it is always difficult to predict the quantity of the rain. Even IMD predicted very heavy rain in coastal yesterday. But not much rains. Another factor is that we know how much our NEM is unpredictable.

  9. Friends, BBC is more hopeful than most of the bloggers, as I said yesterday, one or two Kea bloggers are working overtime in UKMO to squeeze something out this system. It’s forecast says rains right through the evening and night till tomorrow morning. If anyone wants to thrash me for posting this image n promise, can do do so in in forum page.

    • DAY 2 (29th November): Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at most places overChennai, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Pudukottai, Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin, Kanyakumari, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar districts of Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at many places over the remaining districts of Tamil Nadu.

      DAY 3 (30th November): Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at many places over all the districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

      this is what i.m.d expects even now, let us wait and hope some thing miracle happen

  10. bloggers please don’t be in despair. we bloggers can surely drag the system towards us. keep your positive thoughts on. All is well. How long will Chennai be dry? Surely wet spell is very very soon. All we need is Patience. PJ and NOVak, You are the positive pillars of the blog.Hats off

  11. Latest GFS forecast is out …and forecasts the LOW to stay in the same location off shore central TN coast and dumps most of the rain in open waters ….With only Pondicherry and Cuddalore surroundings seeing to get the benefit …And the forecast for tonight and into tomorrow sees some spill over effect on Chennai ….
    Later from tomorrow the centre seems to be losing latitude and slipping down , again most benefit to Cuddalore surroundings

  12. I believe none of the models which ruled out rains for Chennai picked up rains for Marakanam to Nagai stretch. Even for Nagai to Ramnad stretch the amount of rains they precited are way too low. Their forecast of nil to low rains clicked for chennai, but failed for many coastal areas. Our forecast failed (until now, not to be completely written off) only for Chennai but other coastal areas got fair amount. Still we are better than models that way

  13. @disqus_stdfSn8HSG:disqus

    Lower convergence and upper divergence seems to be good at only close to the center..This would help the system to stay at that location for the next 12 – 24 hrs …
    The main disturbing factor is that it hasn’t got that enough convection to support it’s skeleton and simultaneously it seems to face the strong outflows from the HPA located in North India …
    This would be stressing up a constant pressure on the trough associated with this low ….
    Even lower level RH seems to be making a feeble presence over N TN coast ……

    Overall, we have some rain chances , but the probability would decrease post 24 hrs …

    • agreed…HPA has been a killer this time.

      The System is able to build a reasonable band in the open seas,but unable to sustain it over the coast.

      • HPA will not allow the system to enter the landmass to provide the rains near chennai coast. The rains are possible only for C.TN coastal areas.
        Despite this established fact, i believe there will be some rains for chennai from Sunday morning till early hours of Monday morning. My prediction is 50 mm of rainfall during this 24 hour period.

  14. If the current satellite picture is of any indiacation, chennai should get rains. It exactly replicates our blog image. Have nt we got rains earlier with clouds perched like in this satellite image.

  15. Hey guys just saw all India weather bulletin morning still they are expecting to become a well marked low pressure!

  16. Guys!! Can U Help Me Whenever I Login After Some time When I Post A Comment It Say In Red Box Provide authenticate Provide email What Is It

  17. Som mod rain can’t b ruled out we r @ closest of receiving som
    oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/PRODUCTS/MPE/SOUTHERNASIA/IMAGESDisplay/w4Bdshekxq0Wn

  18. first time clouds in radar crossed 13 degree bermuda latitude. I still hope we should get 5 CM from this system as the circulation is still intact in bay which looks better than earlier circulations. Hope the Hysteric pressure area from north india goes away

    • SWM quota is only 448 and we have 4 full months to achieve that. Where as NEM quota is 857 and less than 2 months to get it in

    • SWM takes 4 months to give 60 CM (which is only for last three years), whereas NEM has taken 25 days to give 60 CM. I feel whenever SWM is good for chennai, NEM is taking rest that year. Hereafter I will not prefer good SWM for chennai. SWM rains should be under 30 CM for good NEM of over and above 100 cm (my theory)

      • we need it I agree. But a good SWM doesnt always result in good NEM. Only a few years has given good NEM when SWM was better.

      • But ground water table improves drastically only with NEM rains as it is otherwise called as winter monsoon. Less evaporation during NEM season.

      • agree, but to bridge the gap from the water used from n.e.m to the summer, we always need good s.w.m. which is we are having now a days plenty.

      • Yes, rains during any season is most welcome for water table needs n may not be for the farming community as I’ll timed rains may damage crops.

      • Honestly, no idea about it. I’ve heard farmers say that ill timed rains have damaged crops. Used to wonder , problems are there if it rains or if it doesn’t..

      • i’m not also a expert , but just now i saw a website and it says in t.n we grow rice around the year with sowing and harvesting done, for different types of rice , in different times of the year,

      • Yes very much in terms of water table maintenance. Lake levels or water levels starts stabilising after a harsh summer during Swm season only to improve during NEM.

      • Yes. Thats exactly what i am talking about. SWM takes the dry season out of the equation and thus makes it easy for NEM!!

      • Moreover SWM rains for our region is by and large is isolated and not widespread like NEM rains. 90 % of SWM rains for us are convectional rains and storms by large dumps rains in select areas and it’s very difficult give a definitive forecast few days ahead as thunder storms develop due to convection in most cases and aided by the westerly, south westerly wind flow and onset of sea breeze and other local factors play a role there.NEM are mostly system driven rains and to an extent forecast or areas where it can rain can be given few days ahead as it will be widespread.

      • with last 3 years we witnessing some what not enough rains in nem it is swm which act as the saviour for the needs of chennai

      • If SWM Fails Of Course NEM Is Gonna Be Excess U See In This year’s SWM We Had Many Cloudy Days Without Rains So That Prevented Evaporation

  19. Rain may start anytime from now, it is just getting delayed, the parameters i have seen since yesterday cannot fail, i am sure on that aspect. Only thing is that divergence is weak at 20 knots, it will gain once it becomes WML.

    Dont miss to watch out for Western Disturbance, this has move towards NE kashmir, the influence will reduce from now on.

    ACC over west coast now is impacting and stopping the divergence to develop. It will move today eastwards to Bay of Bengal to get the WML to come into good shape.

    Some covections are developing over ENE of Chennai, will reach by afternoon…

    500MB vorticity has moved north since yesterday.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=

  20. Spoke to my father,,its drizzling in thiruporur….Welcome rains..

    Criticism, like rain, should be gentle enough to nourish a man’s growth without destroying his roots.

      • I am not Calgary man,i am always a Chennai man..came to Calgary for professional growth & for some money..after coming here feel totally disconnected from nature..cant open the windows,sit in balcony because of freezing cold..always in closed doors..what a hell?in Chennai I will sit for hours in open balcony..

      • only for two months you have to suffer. After february you will enjoy calgary and canada weather. YOu can see all the five seasons in canada.

    • Sir one question what is the meaning of two rings of LPA in SW BOB yesterday it had only one ring please explain what is the meaning of two rings?

  21. Rain Update from Low Pressure Area in Bay of Bengal – Mr. Srikanth

    https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide19.png?w=225&h=300

    https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide45.png?w=225&h=300

    https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide29.png?w=225&h=300

    The billion dollar question is will Chennai get rains? Going by forecasts by various weather models the outlook is pretty bleak, but there is a cause for optimism If one observes the Wind chart the HPA is showing some signs of elongation to the east which could be an effect of the Low Pressure Area slowly organizing itself.

    While it is not a case of sure shot rains on the cards, the chance of rains are roughly the same as what it was when we first predicted rains for Chennai. North Tamil Nadu has got rains until little North of Pondy, Chennai is not far away lets have some more patience.

    https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide52.png?w=225&h=300

  22. ♦ The low pressure area over Sri Lanka and adjoining areas of Gulf of Mannar & southwest Bay of Bengal persists Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. It may become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.

    Weather Warning during next 3 days *
    29 November (Day 1): ♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over coastal
    Tamilnadu and heavy at isolated places over interior Tamilnadu.

    ♦ Fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea along and off Tamilnadu coast.

    30 November (Day 2):♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over coastal
    Tamilnadu and heavy at isolated places over interior Tamilnadu.

    ♦ Fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea along and off Tamilnadu coast.

    01 December (Day 3): ♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Tamilnadu.

    Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days from 2nd December 2014 to 05th December 2014

    ♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over south peninsular India.

    source : imd delhi morning report , let us wait and hope some good thing happens to chennai.

  23. The System has smartly built up its E/NE quadrant..If it pushes up a bit NW,Chennai has good chances.Even if it moves west,we are fine.What we do not want is a SW movement

  24. very close to chennai coast the pressure zone does not favour. that is the reason the rain bearing clouds never moves within 50 KMS radius. it get struck at Markkanam & Kalpakkam pocket for more than few hours. Looks like the system is rebuilding near cuddalore latitude. we can have a look of 11.30 AM daundee satellite which can give better picture. But the sky is thickly overcast which signfies still the system is fighting with HPA near south andhra ,chennai coast.
    ss

  25. 11.30 AM satellite picture shows lot of positive sign. this system would become depression and cross close to chennai coast by tomorrow evening. certainly chennai would get useful rains from evening. south tamil nadu down nagai, sunshine is totally back, as no clouds seen below nagai latitude.
    ss

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