Rains could arrive by 5th or 6th of December as a system forms in bay. Until that time expect dry conditions with chilly nights
Rains could arrive by 5th or 6th of December as a system forms in bay. Until that time expect dry conditions with chilly nights
KeaWeather Archives 
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=144&focus=mh
kea, can u give me admin rights? i will try to export and import xml.
Tis system will b getting loads n loads of moisture 4m the monsoon trough in equator… last time 98b came in 4m e.central bay(caught in between 3 sides of landmass) so it managed pull only little moisture ..but tis 1 gonna be a huge 1.. Any kind of intensification it need should happen bfore 83E.. tchp and sst in sw bay not luks great as of now…
20.8*c Low in my hme
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Looks like it organized itself and intensified a bit overnight
Gud mng. Clear blue skies with cool weather. Not a sign of any rains for now
when do u forecast rains for december?
13 degrees low in my home 🙂
enna katha uriyaaa? 🙂
tats cooolllll
System under low shear,so gaining sum convection…. Soon Navy nrl wil start to track it ..Lot of convection seen around in xtreme parts of bay as well.. Last disturbance tat crossed lanka is recurving into s.bay…. Overall S.bay is super active….wil it throw any surprise??
Vaayamoodi summa iru da
Roatta paathu neraa nadada
Kanna katti kaattula vittudumda
system oru vambuda
System formed in s.ind ocean..
Hi All,
Positive Morning to start with.
Sharp increase, Cola and Foreca predicts heavy rain from 06th.
Anyone still going to say the NEM is over.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
Super moving of towers
3->4->5->6->?
foreca not too promising 😦
but it is upto 03rd only, lets see for 04th and 05th.
i hope the system will come close to coast on 05 or 06.
tey always change their forecasts….. but it would be in minimal margin
Divergence is 30 knots.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=dvg&zoom=Z&time=
Route clear towards tamil nadu. Shear is clear, now it has to move in west.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=
Ricky Ponting retires,says his decision and not the selectors.
Yeah,right.
btw,Good Morning to all of you.
I am not going to lie,I am a bit disappointed with Ricky’s retirement.He may not be the best candidate for the Spirit of the game award but he was an excellent batsman.
He’d have gone far if not for the Australian board.He was not designed to be a captain.A Australian team with a sub-standard captain with a free Ricky sounds more promising than one with an overburdened Ricky.Still,I can’t put him in the same frame as Sachin.
He created a legacy of his own standards and nobody can argue otherwise.
Well done,Punter.Thanks for the memories.
Vaayamoodi summa iru da
Roatta paathu neraa nadada
Kanna katti kaattula vittudumda
system oru vambuda
Romba seri.
November fiasco is still giving me nightmares.
lol….
Shocking news
Really?Are you shocked by the time or the fact that it is Ricky Ponting?
It was imminent.Just a matter of playing ashes or not.
I really thought he will make it to the ashes next year.
It was just a few months back he tore apart the bowling of the then world #1 test team. He is this seasons leading run scorer in Sheffield shield.
Agreed age is not in his side and 2 test failures and the pressure from the media got to him. I still think he is still Australia’s best #3 batsmen. Who will replace him now at 3? Quiney? Averaging 3 after 2 tests? Aussies cannot find a replacement in time for the Ashes.
He had the support of the captain and the selectors. But the culprit is the media
Australia cannot find a replacement.Period.
The media has destroyed many a career.Ponting to fell victim to it’s antics.I’m equally disappointed.He is someone who hasn’t been able to,you know,handle media pressure the best.
I knew the Ashes were not within his reach but not so soon either.
All in all,another quality player goes down the drain. 😦
what?
What is that shocking news?
its a bigger shocking news that the failure of NEM, which was expected
“Darisanam kidaikaathaa?? Oru system idam irunthu darisanam kidaikaathaa???…
kidaikum…
Bhopa has no where to go, except coming to us as Cat1+
do u have any idea how many nautical miles it has to travel?
he is kidding…even the remnants will not cross andaman sea
I am not going to believe that this year NEM system will bring rain to Chennai, unless it will start raining continuously for atleast one hour at the rate of 100mm/hr
OMG!!!!
Now only Kallis is a threat to Sachin.
Partha: Where is your moving target stand now ?
Nov15–>Nov 20–>Nov 24–>Dec 1–>Dec 4 –> ?
When i moved my target?
nowadays he stopped saying targets as he too was fooled by the past 2 systems
I have not stopped saying targets raja, i have learnt a lot after Nilam.
I am now in a position to know where and how the system will react.
With present situation i know the system is going to come to us.
The same thing i did 5 days prior to Nilam. As you all know that i have predicted path exactly. I only said that it is going to cross Mahabalipuram. Most of you said that it will cross near Nagai.
Don’t have any doubt, this system is for us.
My only question is whether it will near us as LPA, because it is going to come near north tip of Lanka and cross Nagai.
see it rained south of chennai and north of chennai, only chennai don’t have any rains…
courtesy:Partha sir
partha sir
don’t take it serious…juts kidding
yes, that is the only problem we had during Nilam.
Latest wind shear map.
Also ACC is still with LLC.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=
Mettur dam below 50 feet. 47 feet water with 18TMC capacity,1000 cusecs water release,
Mettur dam view is pathetic. Nandi statue fully visible. Looks like Chennai road with mud and holes.
so sad…. terrible yr…
Partha seems to be happier that atleast his working place(Oragadam) got heavy rain.
Ferrari may appeal Sebastian Vettel title
5 days after winning his 3rd straight world championship, he could still lose it. Ferrari has the habit of having things their way,
@kea, I tracked a system from east of Philliphines to Cuddalore some years back.
wat is tat?
Sorry I am taking so much time between Images.Vorticbob put this in my head.
Any color/picture/font preferences?
Looks Good. Sun is too much brighter and clouds should be darker. Good try.
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
Losing its strength but giving copious amount http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india4.144hr.png
ada po pa. veyyil pinni edukuthu veliya 😦
Tonight i hope that min temp will reach 19C.
sel, u said u hate gfs… but u r posting gfs link?? 🙂
Latest vorticity shows more convection towards south andaman.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=Z&time=
Wind shear path is highly clear that this will hit Nagai.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=
CTT -40
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm
@kea, I think you are going to participate Wipro Marathon in IIT on 2nd Dec.
If so, which one? Full, Half or 10Km?
I missed the deadline.I knew about it the last day and didn’t have enough on me to pay the entry fees. 😐
KarthikStorm,
You can storm into 100M, 500M even 1000M but cant storm into marathon because there you have to run slowly.
Your name does not suit this competition.
LOL!!!
The gif is just for fun,sir.Don’t take it seriously. 😉
Good One
Better luck next time!
I have registered for the 21k, will I go or not I am not sure. Not feeling 100%
Please try. Nothing to loose; gain some good experience.
Mid-tropo steering winds r turning w-nw in coming days.. So it Wil b Targeting s.ap-chennai stretch but due to ridge ,chances r ther for it to get forced to move in w-sw-w direction twrds central tn coast at the time of landfall…
outer rain bands can pour on us.. but thinkin abt the dry winds, avlo capacity irukuma nu therila..
@kea again, see the track of Hurricane Durian 2006.
gud track…. but bopha varardhu doubt dhan….
Vandu serara varaikkum, ellaame doubt dhan
Jon,cola gfs ah??? NCEP gfs thana…
wat is NCEP gfs?? there is only 1 gfs.. cola is same as gfs but the diff is gfs gets updated every 6hrs but cola which follows gfs gets updated every 12hrs
lat gfs 😎
lat one
target namma than…
today’s min 20.8, meena 21.1
cold weather until 2morrw !! from sat, Sunday back to 24*c
or at least 23*C
sry its meena 20.8 and nunga 21.1
forecast map.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=none&type=wind
Tirupathur – 13.8*c
Current ridge position.
Bopha moving in west.
As i predicted day before yesterday.
Someone was saying it to move in northerly direction. The shear is high in north pacific.
still nothin from JTWC
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
Australia is strong enough to replace Ricky now as Michael clarke is playing wonderfully. But the real test for them is to replace Mike Hussey. It is hard to replace him. I like him more because of Chennai connection too. Ricky’s pull shots are glorious to watch like Sachin’s straight drives.
Really?
Ponting dropped down the order to 4 recently. His so called replacement Quiney is averaging 3 after a 2 test career.
Now Aussies need to find 3, 4 and 6(after a years time)
Probably selectors will give Usman Khawaja a 2nd chance. His stats is better than Quiney 29 after 6 tests
I am sure this news is music to the ears of Cook and co.
Ricky’s current form wont make any difference with his absence during the next Ashes
Cola expecting almost 90 mm between 3rd and 6th
romba nalladhu… but lil low only..
Ennathu gfs ,Ncep gfs same ah?? They use gfs data but r they wnt be same. They r ensemble model, product of reanalysed data of gfs… I think16 member gfs ens is Ncep gfs..
i dnt know abt ncep but there is only 1 gfs.check tis link
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PANEL=0&WMO=
Foreca predicting rain from Sunday…- my desktop gadget..
only lite rains
Anyone?
no?yes?What do I have to change?
This is one of the better images I found.
Please give me your valuable comments.
This is better. Letters KEA can be some different color and font; better highlighting.
thank you. this is my new gravatar
but we have stopped using gravatar’s
Sure.What about the logo part?
You thinking of something specific?
I think WP does not like it. Its not changing
It takes time.Keep refreshing.
I’l design a logo soon…
Picture is very good. A suggestion. With some more dark clouds and a punchline below the title, may add some glamor to the page.
Partha,All models pred it to move west only…btw who said that it wil move north?
Partha,Not bcos of Shear ,its due to hpa ,tat system is moving west..
Gravatars are back. Yay.
test
kindly change it.no luck with ur nilam gravatar
This is what we all want.
Jon, enaku apdi onnum theriyala.. Gfs shows system east of chennai ,but cola showing it as hitting jaffna-nagai belt….
Sel,
I don’t think it will come to chennai. Wind shear of 30 knots going to be high, also the dry air till central bay off the coast of central AP will force the system down south.
tats wat im saying cola wil get updated evry 12hr only..but gfs every 6hrs. check out gfs old forecast(<6hr time) n compare it with cola, u wont find any diff
A better one for your gravatar.Kea is not visible in that.
done, now rains can return
This is much better. As I am from IIT, I never use the word best! There is always scope for improvement.
Sure.I’ll take that as a compliment.
KEA,
Under dark clouds.
Hr649,
I need a backgroud image for the header. SIze is 736 × 229 pixels
It would be good if its something to do with weather, not just rain. Maybe put the Davis system somewhere
Both of these models show rain from 5th Dec. Also they take Bhopa towards North.
*
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=144&focus=mh
MSLP forecast till 05th. System east of chennai. The ridge passing north of chennai.
This will change in coming days, hope the system moves south.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_mslp.htm
USA today & Accuweather predicted rain starts from 03rd.
As big companies take over the smaller ones, this vorticity also bent upon swallowing smaller one. As this process takes time, we have to wait for another day for intensification in to Depression.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=Z&time=
I will make an album of maybe 100 images for Kea.
Use that however you want.
Will take time,but will deliver shortly.
All your different suggestions will go in that.Kea will never run out of Gravatars. 🙂
Ponting retires!
Animation of the system movement towards us.
System position on 01st December.
http://www2.tmd.go.th/program/nwp_pro/UMtoGrADS/wrf_nwp-tmd_research/images/domain2/asia_mslp.html
Looks like a depression at 1002MB
it will be DD in no time
if it has to become DD, it has to come to Bay.
System position is at south, the rain band at north. Laddu for chennai.
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
See it on 05th 0000.
Guys,
I request you to be patience till this system reach us at least till 04th dec.
You have to have lot of patience this time because this system is going to show us lots of twists and turns. I am sure about it.
This will be your new experience.
So far you are so frustrated due to long dry phase, but this is the critical time for you people to show some no lots of patience.
The upcoming system going to test your nerves.
This system is sure shot for us, keep that in mind and keep you cool until it reach us.
Once again i request you to be Patience!, Patience!, Patience!.
Patience was a virtue I never had.Weather forced patience onto me.So no worries there.
Monsoon is trying our patience this time. It has been a long month of dry weather 😦
Patience. I tracked Hurricane Durian from 25th Nov 2006 to well into the second week of Dec 2006, where at mid-night, near Cuddalore, it strengthened into a CAT-I hurricane and soon afterwards it dissipated and crossed almost a JAL. That is only winds and no rain. That year also NEM was like this. I was hoping against hope that this Durian will revive the waning NEM. But that was not the case.
TV serials are of half an hour to one hour. Movies are 2 to three hours. Cricket matche sare of one to five days. But this systems are absorbing entertainers form 10 to 20days; non stop and much more twists and drama than any of the above.
The trick is not to get worked up and expect each and every system should hit us. I track any thing in Pacific with the same intensity as I do in BOB. This gives lot of insight in to their behaviors.
In other areas as you metioned we will get bored in few hours, but we are not bored off here.
Don’t mind some typos. I am not used to typing.
Partha,Twist?
Initially north, then south, then west south west. That is what i want to say here,
also the system will weaken when nearing the coast so the start of rain may delay.
Our people will start loosing their patience.
That is why.
actually ur comment is the biggest twist
Sun news: lp near andaman.
Now LPA in andaman sea with low shear, now it has to come out to bay to face the real shear.
It is like now it is scoring centuries in Ranji, it has to come out to play international game, then the real test starts.
Come on tiger, Come on tiger.
puli urumudhu puli urumudhu, idi idikkuthu idi idikuthu
in andhman
Vettai arambamaiduchu doi…
chennai koottai vidama irudha sari
Penn State gfs confirms the twists and turns.God,is it gonna be a long track.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFSTROPIOCN_0z/gfsloop.html
When i warned of this twists and turns i was thinking of
guru, suundar & gs_18.
Cooling this people is like putting off fire in an oil refinery.
Very Tough.
Temperament scale differs for everyone.We can’t help it. 😆
hi guys
im back after doing my music exam… btw NOGAPS predicting VSCS Mahasen to hitting pondi!!!
high wind areas forecast
Jupi, which musical instrument you play. Your posts are like Osibisa drums.
i did my grade 5 piano exam (Trinity College of Music London)
Excellent!
Thanks 🙂
NOGAPS forecast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/12112900/15.html
ecmwf says system will get drifted twrds s-sw after reaching chennai lat http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Asia!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Asia!chart.gif
Bulls Eye from IMD GFS MSLP
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_mslp.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_850wind.htm
Cola Changes the forecast, rain expected from 03rd.
Another system having Chennai as target as of now.Let’s do this guys.
another flop??
If that’s the case…
ha ha.. gud 🙂
There were few new people at my office who had come from other parts of the country and were new to Chennai. When they complained about chennai not getting rains during SW monsoons, I told them that NE monsoons ponder chennai and I had also asked them to get prepared. They were skeptic though, but I started laughing from October 15-16th this year,but they have been laughing at me for the past one month. I had told November was the wettest month for Chennai 😦 😦
say this December will going be the wettest in the chennai’s history
we are going to get 700mm or greater and 66 year record will be broken
ippadi usuppethi usppethiye namma udambu ranagalam aanadhu thaan mitcham! Anyway, pleasing words to hear.
Somebody already blogged here that dont predict rains for your friends and family. That’s seem the gospel now.
I said that.See,this is what follows.
05th, 05th, 05th.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=144&focus=mh
I am in a dilemma now.
Should I run the marathon or watch Ricky Pontings final match
Marathon.
no watch ricky’s final match
Chennai venaam… Let it develop into depression, imd wil give the track .. Athula paakkalam.
One thing i am seeing here is:
GFS saying system near chennai.
ECMWF saying system near nagai.
Now i hope GFS will change according to ECMWF model.
System has to move down south due to lac of moisture over central bay.
It has to move down bcos northern part of the system wil face the biggest impact ….
Yes,
The ridge is of north of chennai that time.
what is ridge? is that the part with more ts
ridge is a border of HPA zone.
ECMWF models. Today’s Update.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012112900!!/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012112900!!/
Current conditions.
The ridge is at 13 degree north.
Daily update is changing yesterday it would go to north today its south keeping on changing not great.we have to wait for 4 days (2nd December evenings we know the results its Laddu or Halwa. Unless rain is pouring is pouring no one should believe it.
it will head south towards Nagai.
ecmwf and tmd forecasts r same http://www2.tmd.go.th/mm5/images/rsm/1/pcp_0005.gif
Sel,
How do you know both are same?
Chennai and Chennai AP
Deficit – 219 & 215MM
by dec 31st 2012
Chennai and Chennai AP
Excess– 219 & 215MM
Wow.
Keep it up.
U deserve a mouthful of sweets
i don’t want any sweets…What i need is that chennai to hit by 3 DD’s and each DD should be similar to what i saw in 2005 october
Partha, forecasted track is same Wrt to upcoming system, ..coming east of chennai and drifting down..
Sel,
This is what i have mentioned as twists and turns.
IMD GFS.
http://202.54.31.51/gfs/120gfs_vert.htm
KEA,
Please enter your prediction for December.
No escape this time.
Will update before the time close for entries…
If he updates, then everyone follow him
courtesy: KEA
To my knowledge, so far no one followed him.
I will enter soon, but don’t expect big numbers from me. I want to be cautious
Cat is out of the wall.
Kea
This is my final predictions for December predictions
Total Rainfall : 700mm
No of 20mm+ Rainy days : 12 days
Highest 48hr Rainfall :300mm
so 700 is it?
R U expecting a deep depression this December?
3 DD’s -> december 6th, 17th, 28th
Mine also same. We sink or sail in the same boat. One can afford to sink with brave hearts rather than sail with weak hearts.
vortic
This December going to be the month of DD’s
Latest SSMI image shows an eye-wall trying to form
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2012_26W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html
Very soon it will be a cat1.For past 6 hours the TS Bhopa drifted southwestwards towards equator which caused it to weaken a bit.
One more on 17th December.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=480&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Another one on 28th December.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=768&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
chennai to hit by these 3 possible system as DD’s and each DD should be similar to what we saw in 2005 october
3 DD’s -> december 6th, 17th, 28th
The low pressure over Andaman sea is moving towards west and its currently over islands.The system is under upper anticyclone providing favorable shear.More favorable conditions to the east of the system but high shear to the west.The shear around the system will be low until upper anticyclone remains over the system.
The more it moves slows better for the system.
*slower
even it can come 2 days late…but i need it to hit chennai as DD similar to 2005 october with big bang
Too early to tell the right path .If you wanted a storm to hit chennai why are you expecting DD and not cyclone?.Its the cyclone which would cause intense rain than DD.I think people are underestimating the rain potential of cyclone after seeing Nilam.
Kiwis on the verge of victory against SL. Just one wicket away.
Parthasri
Those two system i see ur link picture not coming to Chennai its cross only nagai and cuddalore districts see clearly its very long term process not believe it because next week you see different views.
I am not saying it comes to chennai, i am seeing only for TN.
I know this cannot be taken as sure one. Just to keep the blog alive.
Sure..we will have different views on next week…
the target will be chennai
Animated precipitation, look at the condense over SE bay from 28th.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/indo/main.html
99.9 % of Chennai thinks winter has set it. The 0.1 % are us and some crazy ppl who still have hope.
Normally it happens in end of November and December its nothing new.
yea.. Even ‘m hearing ppl saying its winter already and no more rain
The intensity increases drastically.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=indian&sat=m5&prod=irn
If Aussies win in the final test, it will be an excellent farewell test for Ricky.
Aussies will be back to the top of the world.
My predictions will be out at 5 pm
@kea
This is my final predictions for December predictions
Total Rainfall : 700mm
No of 20mm+ Rainy days : 12 days
Highest 48hr Rainfall :300mm
Copy and pasted from @raijin.
sure…chennai will get the maximum brunt in terms of rainfall from the december DD’s and going to have excess over 150mm this season
glad to see few hundreds 🙂
Who ever predicted highest amount is going to be the winner of December contest.
vorticbob, Durian was never a cat 1 in bay.The maximum it was a depression when it entered the Andaman sea and it weakened into a low pressure.It crossed as a weak low in TN.
Yes. Only winds. It attained CAT1 status for a very short time during night and soon afterwards it dissipated. Only Indian Express carried this report. No others have reported. I was genuinely surprised at that. I hope you are correct. But my memory is vivid. I was so excited that something so close to us became cat1 without anybody’s knowledge.
I was keep tracking of it from beginning to end it was never a organized system in bay.I still remember the structure of system when it neared TN coast .It was very poorly organised.The individual thunderstorm from that system caused strong winds.
Thank you. I am a keen follower of systems. But that time I didn’t have internet connectivity at home. Track during office time and rely on TV and newspapers in home. Moreover, only after seeing this blogs some three years ago, I came to know the existence of so many weather portals. Thanks to kea bloggers. Otherwise Kea metsite (not blog), IMD, JTWC, NAVY/Nrl are my only sources.
I am happy that so many youngsters are doing such a good work ; some of them are of professional quality!