653 thoughts on “US agency sees ‘moderate’ chance for a Bay storm

  1. Intensifying at a rapid state.. If the uL anticyclone continues to be with the LLC,IT would attain a DD in a peroid of 18 hrs…it is providing such a low shear and terrific outflow..

  2. As i told, wat ever intensification it needs, shld happen bfore 83 E,..Tchp is very low in sw bay. AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 90.9E,APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENTANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARINGOVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A292104Z AMSU-B PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPERLEVELRIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCEALOFT. HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO AN AREA OFHIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRIER AIR PRESENTACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL IN THE DAYS AHEAD, LIMITING THE TIMEWINDOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AREESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATEDTO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP,THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONEWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

  3. Here goes the JTWC’s text :-

    An area of convection has persisted near 9.5n 90.9e, approximately 670 nm east-northeast of colombo, sri lanka. Recent animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection flaring over a developing low level circulation center (llcc) evident in a 292104z amsu-b pass. This disturbance lies beneath an upper level ridge axis, with low vertical wind shear and favorable diffluence aloft.

    However, the llcc is expected to move westward into an area of higher vertical wind shear and will likely entrain drier air present across the western bay of bengal in the days ahead, limiting the time window for further development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

    Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. Because the llcc is just beginning to develop, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      • You’re thinking cloud seeding.Sure,it is very possible.First,we need heavy array of clouds.
        It is also not always beneficial.Beijing scientists embarrassed themselves by bringing snow instead of rain due to excessive cloud seeding.
        It’s cost is also too high.So,it is usually used as a last ditch attempt for survival.Nature always tends to punch you in the face when you deconstruct it in any way.

      • Ah,Drop the formalities. 🙂
        The year was 1973, 1975-1977..Attempted by IIT-M in Tiruvallur.
        Not sure it was widely successful.

  4. Sw bay la intensify aaga chance kammi.. Shear factor will b equalised by ULA ,marginal fav SST , only concern is dry air…. Hope it doesnt destroy the system badly, sw bay shld maintain the intensity atleast…

  5. Why is this shear and dry air playing havoc in our monsoon?
    Why can’t we get a non-sheared system for once?
    Selvan,how is this gonna go forward?Will we get a system or dry air oothi mudirima?

    • If it intensifies in to a cyclone, which is it is going to be, then need not to fear. TCs have their own way of dealing with dry airs and wind shears if they are strong enough.

  6. The Hindu is quite brutal in its statistical evaluation – this November is the worst in terms of rainfall in the last 43 years. Yes – you read that right- past FORTY THREE years !
    Thats a lot of records that just crumbled.

  7. Looking at BBC and GFS forecasts, I am kind of getting the again feeling. System sheared and sheared and we get the leftovers. Will and how will it be different this time?

  8. Important Breaking News:They found water on Mercury .
    Ice water was seen in the craters at the poles.Neutron spectrometry found evidence of high amounts of hydrogen.Thermal and topography models match what was found in other tests and further confirm water ice in the dark sides of the craters.
    Oh,lord.

    • NASA’s messenger brings about this absolutely mind-boggling revelation.
      Just for you guys to know,Mercury is 630 °C .They found water in it.
      The world is too big for us.
      Every planet right next to us has water and we’re searching light years away.

  9. As soon as the main system swallows the bits and pieces around it and undergoes circulation,it’s intensification will be rapid.
    Right now,the main circulation is losing strength a bit,but not to worry at all.Wait for it.

  10. Karthik,ipothku danger ila..83E longitude varaikum it is highly favourable for steady intensification.. If it stays behind east of 83E for next 36 hrs,it wil be a tropical storm .Dry air interaction ithu varaikum ila , if it interacts,it may weaken to Wml or D or may even dissipates wen it nears the coast…. Lets c.

  11. Latest RAMMB images shows that the bottom circulation is pulling and swallowing the main vorticity.This will give it more time for intensification.
    Also it has move west more,so all in all,better for us atm.

  12. System induced Upper level anticyclone ,LLC pakkathlayae iruntha it wil provide low shear of 5-10knts In tat case ,shear oru problem aa irukathu.. Dry air 4m ridge is the only worrying factor..

  13. Hi Guys…this is srshankar…a weather enthu…following your posts and comments for an year and posting for the first time. Amazing job with the kea site and this blog

  14. North pogathu,.. West or West-sw r the two available choices .. 11.30 update la mid -tropo (500mb)wind direction eppudi ne paakalam. It wil strictly follow it and also ecmwf update.. Everythng wil b clear in few hours.

  15. If the anticyclone is the cause of dry cold air I hope it moves up in time for good rains to reach us. I see minimum temps going up from tomorrow. Hope thats a good sign. Iam not expecting a cyclone but some amazing rains to compensate for all the disappointment and frustration. This dry air has to go away and hope wind shear comes down enough for buckets of rain.

  16. Abundant water vapour present to the east of the system near Andamans.Since the circulation is anti-clockwise,I hope it eats up all the water vapour and gets ready for the showdown.

  17. Test match starting between Laddu Vs Bussvanam today

    1.Whether test match will continue for 5 days ?
    2.Is this low scoring match ?

    What other questions running in our bloggers mind ?

    • Sorry to hear.Hope you get better in time.This cold weather is bringing down people like The Plague.Same condition here.

  18. Please someone request TN Government to take immediate steps to spray water from helicopter over the dry air area…so it will become moisturized area until the system reach us

  19. Dear Friends,

    seeing the WML in the bay…it seems nisha is on the cards for Chennai. The Depression will cross above GoM….but Chennai will get the bulk of rains from the outer bands rich of rains.

    As per NRL: 25 kts 1004 mb

    its Depression strength already

  20. During Nisha Orathanadu, Thanjavur District where over 660 mm of rain fell within a period of 24 hours and broke the 65-year old record of highest rainfall registered in 24 hours in Cuddalore,Tamil Nadu.

    As Pradeep said that it the current system is similar to that of Nisha, Will Chennai broke that record?

  21. How it would be if the numbers comes like below

    5.12.2012 Chennai 190 mm
    6.12.2012 Chennai 330 mm
    7.12.2012 Chennai 660 mm
    8.13.2012 Chennai 100 mm

  22. The system is cooking something up right now.RAMMB’s latest images shows the two masses engulfed by a single circulation,like two peas in a pod.

  23. Good Morning,

    As northern hemisphere is slowly slipping into winter including india, we hope to see winter dose not set in by end of december so that at least we have an our share of rain.. I hope this time around there will be less number deaths due to cold winter in northern india.

    I hope worst chennai november comes to end…

      • Sel/Karthik,

        Surely the ridge will be pushed towards north. As of now the ridge is at 13N.

        Also the moisture was absent yesterday over central and north bay. Today’s water vapour insat shows that there are some moisture over south coastal ap, the dry air is vanishing over that region.

  24. I didn’t know Kea’s gravatar change would spark such a butterfly change.If I’d know,I would have made one earlier.
    All tables tipped toward Chennai at the moment.

  25. Sel/Karthik/Raijin,

    Surely the ridge will be pushed towards north. As of now the ridge is at 13N.

    Also the moisture was absent yesterday over central and north bay. Today’s water vapour insat shows that there are some moisture over south coastal ap, the dry air is vanishing over that region.

    • In southern TN, the temp’s not sinking much… so its the northern coast, still in HPA with cold wave… by tomorrow, temp. will rise to normal 23*c

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