411 thoughts on “Another week of dry weather expected

  1. Tis system will b getting loads n loads of moisture 4m the monsoon trough in equator… last time 98b came in 4m e.central bay(caught in between 3 sides of landmass) so it managed pull only little moisture ..but tis 1 gonna be a huge 1.. Any kind of intensification it need should happen bfore 83E.. tchp and sst in sw bay not luks great as of now…

  2. System under low shear,so gaining sum convection…. Soon Navy nrl wil start to track it ..Lot of convection seen around in xtreme parts of bay as well.. Last disturbance tat crossed lanka is recurving into s.bay…. Overall S.bay is super active….wil it throw any surprise??

  3. I am not going to lie,I am a bit disappointed with Ricky’s retirement.He may not be the best candidate for the Spirit of the game award but he was an excellent batsman.
    He’d have gone far if not for the Australian board.He was not designed to be a captain.A Australian team with a sub-standard captain with a free Ricky sounds more promising than one with an overburdened Ricky.Still,I can’t put him in the same frame as Sachin.
    He created a legacy of his own standards and nobody can argue otherwise.

    • Really?Are you shocked by the time or the fact that it is Ricky Ponting?
      It was imminent.Just a matter of playing ashes or not.

      • I really thought he will make it to the ashes next year.

        It was just a few months back he tore apart the bowling of the then world #1 test team. He is this seasons leading run scorer in Sheffield shield.

        Agreed age is not in his side and 2 test failures and the pressure from the media got to him. I still think he is still Australia’s best #3 batsmen. Who will replace him now at 3? Quiney? Averaging 3 after 2 tests? Aussies cannot find a replacement in time for the Ashes.

        He had the support of the captain and the selectors. But the culprit is the media

      • Australia cannot find a replacement.Period.
        The media has destroyed many a career.Ponting to fell victim to it’s antics.I’m equally disappointed.He is someone who hasn’t been able to,you know,handle media pressure the best.
        I knew the Ashes were not within his reach but not so soon either.
        All in all,another quality player goes down the drain. 😦

  4. I am not going to believe that this year NEM system will bring rain to Chennai, unless it will start raining continuously for atleast one hour at the rate of 100mm/hr

      • I have not stopped saying targets raja, i have learnt a lot after Nilam.

        I am now in a position to know where and how the system will react.

        With present situation i know the system is going to come to us.

        The same thing i did 5 days prior to Nilam. As you all know that i have predicted path exactly. I only said that it is going to cross Mahabalipuram. Most of you said that it will cross near Nagai.

        Don’t have any doubt, this system is for us.

        My only question is whether it will near us as LPA, because it is going to come near north tip of Lanka and cross Nagai.

  5. Mettur dam below 50 feet. 47 feet water with 18TMC capacity,1000 cusecs water release,

    Mettur dam view is pathetic. Nandi statue fully visible. Looks like Chennai road with mud and holes.

  6. Mid-tropo steering winds r turning w-nw in coming days.. So it Wil b Targeting s.ap-chennai stretch but due to ridge ,chances r ther for it to get forced to move in w-sw-w direction twrds central tn coast at the time of landfall…

  7. Australia is strong enough to replace Ricky now as Michael clarke is playing wonderfully. But the real test for them is to replace Mike Hussey. It is hard to replace him. I like him more because of Chennai connection too. Ricky’s pull shots are glorious to watch like Sachin’s straight drives.

  8. Ennathu gfs ,Ncep gfs same ah?? They use gfs data but r they wnt be same. They r ensemble model, product of reanalysed data of gfs… I think16 member gfs ens is Ncep gfs..

    • Sel,

      I don’t think it will come to chennai. Wind shear of 30 knots going to be high, also the dry air till central bay off the coast of central AP will force the system down south.

    • tats wat im saying cola wil get updated evry 12hr only..but gfs every 6hrs. check out gfs old forecast(<6hr time) n compare it with cola, u wont find any diff

  9. Hr649,

    I need a backgroud image for the header. SIze is 736 Γ— 229 pixels

    It would be good if its something to do with weather, not just rain. Maybe put the Davis system somewhere

  10. Guys,

    I request you to be patience till this system reach us at least till 04th dec.

    You have to have lot of patience this time because this system is going to show us lots of twists and turns. I am sure about it.

    This will be your new experience.

    So far you are so frustrated due to long dry phase, but this is the critical time for you people to show some no lots of patience.

    The upcoming system going to test your nerves.

    This system is sure shot for us, keep that in mind and keep you cool until it reach us.

    Once again i request you to be Patience!, Patience!, Patience!.

    • Patience. I tracked Hurricane Durian from 25th Nov 2006 to well into the second week of Dec 2006, where at mid-night, near Cuddalore, it strengthened into a CAT-I hurricane and soon afterwards it dissipated and crossed almost a JAL. That is only winds and no rain. That year also NEM was like this. I was hoping against hope that this Durian will revive the waning NEM. But that was not the case.

      TV serials are of half an hour to one hour. Movies are 2 to three hours. Cricket matche sare of one to five days. But this systems are absorbing entertainers form 10 to 20days; non stop and much more twists and drama than any of the above.

      The trick is not to get worked up and expect each and every system should hit us. I track any thing in Pacific with the same intensity as I do in BOB. This gives lot of insight in to their behaviors.

  11. Now LPA in andaman sea with low shear, now it has to come out to bay to face the real shear.

    It is like now it is scoring centuries in Ranji, it has to come out to play international game, then the real test starts.

    Come on tiger, Come on tiger.

  12. There were few new people at my office who had come from other parts of the country and were new to Chennai. When they complained about chennai not getting rains during SW monsoons, I told them that NE monsoons ponder chennai and I had also asked them to get prepared. They were skeptic though, but I started laughing from October 15-16th this year,but they have been laughing at me for the past one month. I had told November was the wettest month for Chennai 😦 😦

    • say this December will going be the wettest in the chennai’s history
      we are going to get 700mm or greater and 66 year record will be broken

  13. One thing i am seeing here is:

    GFS saying system near chennai.
    ECMWF saying system near nagai.

    Now i hope GFS will change according to ECMWF model.

    System has to move down south due to lac of moisture over central bay.

  14. Daily update is changing yesterday it would go to north today its south keeping on changing not great.we have to wait for 4 days (2nd December evenings we know the results its Laddu or Halwa. Unless rain is pouring is pouring no one should believe it.

  15. Kea

    This is my final predictions for December predictions

    Total Rainfall : 700mm
    No of 20mm+ Rainy days : 12 days
    Highest 48hr Rainfall :300mm

  16. The low pressure over Andaman sea is moving towards west and its currently over islands.The system is under upper anticyclone providing favorable shear.More favorable conditions to the east of the system but high shear to the west.The shear around the system will be low until upper anticyclone remains over the system.

  17. Parthasri
    Those two system i see ur link picture not coming to Chennai its cross only nagai and cuddalore districts see clearly its very long term process not believe it because next week you see different views.

  18. @kea

    This is my final predictions for December predictions

    Total Rainfall : 700mm
    No of 20mm+ Rainy days : 12 days
    Highest 48hr Rainfall :300mm

    Copy and pasted from @raijin.

  19. vorticbob, Durian was never a cat 1 in bay.The maximum it was a depression when it entered the Andaman sea and it weakened into a low pressure.It crossed as a weak low in TN.

    • Yes. Only winds. It attained CAT1 status for a very short time during night and soon afterwards it dissipated. Only Indian Express carried this report. No others have reported. I was genuinely surprised at that. I hope you are correct. But my memory is vivid. I was so excited that something so close to us became cat1 without anybody’s knowledge.

      • I was keep tracking of it from beginning to end it was never a organized system in bay.I still remember the structure of system when it neared TN coast .It was very poorly organised.The individual thunderstorm from that system caused strong winds.

      • Thank you. I am a keen follower of systems. But that time I didn’t have internet connectivity at home. Track during office time and rely on TV and newspapers in home. Moreover, only after seeing this blogs some three years ago, I came to know the existence of so many weather portals. Thanks to kea bloggers. Otherwise Kea metsite (not blog), IMD, JTWC, NAVY/Nrl are my only sources.

        I am happy that so many youngsters are doing such a good work ; some of them are of professional quality!

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