There seems to be no end to the intense cold wave in Chennai as the city records another below temp. Revival of NEM is not possible for another 7-10 days.
There seems to be no end to the intense cold wave in Chennai as the city records another below temp. Revival of NEM is not possible for another 7-10 days.
KeaWeather Archives 
Every morning,I open my balcony at 4 and am greeted by a chilly wave of air.I would actually prefer this weather until the next spell arrives.Let’s all hope it is not too far away.
Good Morning.
Its already 20.6
1010 hpa
20.6 at 3.45
already a min recorded at 4.45 here.. 19.9*C
and now its 19.8*C
I used to wake up wen it pours heavily.. but today, got up early coz of colder winds…
Temperature hits zero degree in Ooty, white carpet over 10 kilometre area
http://www.ndtv.com/article/south/temperature-hits-zero-degree-in-ooty-white-carpet-over-10-kilometre-area-292976?pfrom=home-otherstories
not recorded in AWS or official entry also.. might be the surrounding places would’ve recorded
Super weather for running. Hope this continues until Dec 3rd and the monsoon come back at its full fury after that. Need to do few more intense training before the marathon
Bountiful rain in dec..? Because it is fag end NEM
the circulation is visible here http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=IO982012&starting_image=2012IO98_4KMSRBDC_201211151730.jpg
tonight will be the last night of super cool temp’s, minimum temps will go up from sunday onwards.
foreca predicts Sunday will the coldest…..
98B has moved further north !! now at 15.9 with a minor eastern movement
even 25w will fizzle out.. it has moved further north and stationed at 11.8
high level clouds can b seen in distant east… moving from south to north
S–> N ???? http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sector-ir.jpg 98B pulling clouds from West in South TN and resulting in NE to SE movement in North TN
The system in bay had little southward movement for the past 6 hours
15.9,91.3 => 15.5,91.3
exactly marching 2wards coast of north-bay
Another bad morning in terms of North-east monsoon, but wonderful chill weather..Hope this run will end by this weak
Hindu businessline says this system will start moving west and come closer to the AP coast
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Looks like it moved west from yesterday night. btw what is that circulation in ARB
btw what is that small capsule over north-srilanka?
s…
The system in bay had little southward movement for the past 6 hours
15.9,91.3 => 15.5,91.3
ECMWF shows still there is something left for chennai…the system will make turn and will near the coast of chennai
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=144&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Of late, I am getting rains daily in my dreams…
Tday also kulir …omg,so far tis november is Sathiya sothanai!!
yep.. It was sunny and its colder now.. rain mattum dhan illa da ???
Selvan,
It is an HPA near lanka not LPA.
meena’s min. Again around 19.5 to 20
When will hpa reduce
By 23rd.
Hi partha i Have question to you said that NĚM will end by jan 15.. that happens Not frequently do you think 2005 will be reapted…is there any strong reasons..
There is an extension of NEM is for sure. The reason is due to the positive El-Nino continues till Jan 2013.
I don’t thing there will be a repeat of 2005. That was massive. The beginning itself was strong.
I could hardly see any dry phase in 2005.
One thing is sure that we will receive more than normal rainfall this time.
Another point is that lots of rains during Garbottam that is during the end of margazhi and in the beginning of thai month is not a good sign for next season.
yeah in 2005 nem was massive and intense… without letup it rained…. it also extended monsoon till jan… if it happens this nem also then probably we are going to have continuous normal nem since 2004 which is unheard in NEM
Hi All,
Good Chill Morning.
Whatever may be the temp outside, KEA records only 22.0C.
This was the case of yesterday also.
KEA weather station has lower limit set for november(avg) and it won’t go below that.
Good One.
I think NOGAPS is advanced forecasting system.It is forecasting rain for november 18 ‘2013.(1 year ahead).
Chennai
MAX Temp – 30.1
MIN Temp – 19.4, -4 below normal
Coimbatore – 31.6 & 18.4C
Kodaikanal – 21.7 & 9.8C
Salem – 30.7 & 17.3C
System won’t turn, it will move east or else it will dissipate
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 89.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 151814Z INDICATES A
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE WIND FIELD WITH 05-10 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS
SURROUNDED BY 20-25 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE UNDERNEATH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION TO THE GOOD DIVERGENCE BEING
PRODUCED BY THE STR AXIS, THERE IS MODERATE SPEED DIVERGENCE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE 850MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS VERY ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST;
INDICATIVE OF THE GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNATURE OF A WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW
13.6N 89.0E, Surprise SW movement ?
link please and at what time?
IMD forecasts dry weather for TN till 18th.
Some Pillars from COLA from 22nd.
Same from FORECA from 21st.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
Raja,
There is strong wind shear along the coast of TN with 20 knots. System will not move towards us.
Also wind shear of 20 knots around the system. 30 knots in north bay.
It has to dissipate.
Vorticity is also not looking good, it is not deepening.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
The lower convergence has become weak now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
As per IMD forecast, very dry period ahead till 22nd.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
No rain this month itself, enjoy the pleasant weather. Come to terms, NEM failed.
Sundar,
It is too early to say failure. This is the dry phase.
U are too optimistic! NEM is peak in Nov, and u say it is dry phase
It has extended till jan several time. You have to see that too.
KEA,
Stats page not working, looks like disabled one.
Please check.
Ooty Recorded – 8.6C
It is minus
no minus…just 8.6C
What is the current position of the system? and also link please
The system is stronger and closer to Chennai than yesterday.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=io&ACTIVES=12-WPAC-25W.TWENTYFIVE,12-SHEM-95S.INVEST,12-IO-98B.INVEST,12-WPAC-98W.INVEST&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=1&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20121116.0300.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.98BINVEST.15kts-1007mb-136N-890E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=io981&ATCF_DIR=1&MO=NOV&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2012&YR=12&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=98B.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/IO/98W.INVEST/tpw/microvap&PRODUCT=vis&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/IO/98B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=vis&PROD=vis&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_zoom
Dear All,
No way the system can move towards north or north east. Its northern latitude never could cross machilipatnam latitude particularly in november. As very high pressure zones prevail in bangladesh & burma / north bay of bengal, its movement towards north will be prohibited. We could get south west movement from now on and the system might comes closer about 12.5 & 85 east and from then it might turn slightly northwest – probably giving heavy rains to south coastal and north tamil nadu from sunday evening. we can anticipate very heavy rains for chennai and of course south tamil nadu may not get any rains from this system.
ss.
System moved 2 degrees south and 2 degrees west since yesterday.
Is centre relocated ?
where did u saw that?…as per the link below, it is in 15.5, 91.3
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
super…
Are we seeing light at the end of the tunnel ?
Wake up Sel. Something is in store for us?
@raja
where did u saw that?…as per the link below, it is in 15.5, 91.3
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012
We are tying our self into knots like this.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12111518/33.html
What a huge movement towards south-west in just 3 hours
At 201211160000 the position is 15.5N 91.3E(courtesy:RAMMB)
At 201211160300 the position is 13.6N 89.0E(courtesy:us navy)
Looks like centre relocation
eppadiyo…namakku thevai laddu
Partha sir
Regarding Statistics page…
I too facing that problem if i access it from my office(using Firefox 15)
But works fine if accessing from my home (using Firefox 16)
Let me check in other browsers too
checked in all the browsers. I was not able to view the stats page if accessed from my office.. In my office they are blocking some js neccessary to view the contents
gprofile.js
quant.js
@raijin, yesterday I was talking about three vortex points and they should merge to form Depression. Sel said bottom votrtex near SL may breakup. It seems we both are right!
The storm position given by RAMMB is of the top vortex. Where as JTWC takes the middle vortex. That is causing confusion to you. And top and bottom are started merging slowly. To do that one has to be stronger. I think the top one will weaken due to VWS present and gets pulled by the center vortex. The bottom one is likely to breakup and form an independent LPA. In that case the SL LPA will attract the system towards TN. Even 5 KNOTS wind(LPA center) is located south west of the system. As for current conditions I am sure this will happen. Even if the SL vortex doesn’t breakup, in the process of pulling that vortex, system has to move Southwestwards only. I am not telling at this point that it will move all the way down to Chennai. Tomorrow morning, it will be more closer and stronger than today. I am confident of it. Let us take it on 24 hrs basis.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012&product_filename=2012IO98_MPSATWND_201211160000
what is ideally vortex…
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/56/
In the 850mb vorticity map, dark red spots at the center is vortex, or an eye of the storm if the system is a storm. Now it is no way near eye definition.
Hope that your say will comes true
bloggers comments going down by the day and hour! whatz up
see on 2moro…it will be ulta…everthing now seems to work as our wish and hopes
In this following animation, 1Hr images, shows our system pulling the clouds form Arabic, Pacific and South Indian oceans. It is building up!
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sanew.htm
See something should happen quickly or else all guys will be off radar
in today’s morning IMD report dry weather predicted till 23rd of Nov… still says LPA will well marked in 48 hrs
they are saying the same for past 96 hours and even after 48 hours they might say the same..that is how the current system develops..
Min. Temp :-
Nunga – 19.4
Meena – 19.5
Tirupathur – 14
Dharmapuri – 15.5
Vellore – 16.6
Salem – 18.2
Coimbatore Ap – 18.6
Cuddalore – 20.5
Kodai – 9.8
Ooty – 8.1
All the models including IMD are confused about the current system
lets wait till the three vortex points merge to form Depression and then everything will be clear abt their intensity and track.
@partha sir
Regarding stats page
checked in all the browsers. I was not able to view the stats page if accessed from my office.. In my office they are blocking some js neccessary to view the contents
gprofile.js
quant.js
that might be ur case too if u are accessing from ur office
u mean the rainfall stats page in kea metsite?
no. in the weather blog.
Today i could see lots of coulds in sky moving around…
Low in the Bay is independent of any forecast…defying and going its own way…now moves westwards. Though models still defer, we must know where it can go….
detailed analysis on vagaries.
http://rajesh26.blogspot.com
Finally, good news emerging in all GFS and ECMWF..and of course in NoGaps as well. Mild wet weather to commence from Tuesday onwards.
some good news are coming from the morning and have to wait another 4 days is little painful
Mr mahesan you know that there will be lot hpa in the north as the sun is in southern hemisphere. But despite all these warnings instead of coming to your favourite place Chennai you went north. Look at you now. You are trapped. You poor little guy where will you go now.alright its not too late. Just take a u turn and move along that path you will find us. Don’t worry if have any difficulty just mail me we will help you.take care. See you soon.;)
lol…nice one
West is right, come’on mate, get moving and fast.
Kovil Maadu mathiri suthaama, veeddkku vaa.
rofl
I dont care as much about the failed NEM so far so long as this doesn’t mean peak summer will start in January 😛
I think you feel you are insulated from the notorious “Madras Thanni Kashtam”. 1987, 1993, 2003, 2004 were all very bad that too in a city which was much smaller compared to what it is now
Correct me if i am wrong, but our dependence on Blore/ Andhra is significant compared to our own minimal internal captive storage which we tend to convert into dumping grounds.
And Rain is welcome, but in its absence this weather is better than the relentless heat we normally face – look at it this way, atleast the amount of water which evaporates from our minimal ponds is less 😛
u r wrong.we dnt get any wter from blore
still no change in nogaps??
ly 4 days more..
dipped a bit south on coast
sterday it was plum shot on chennai…now little bit disturbed
201211160600 13.6 89.8 SW movement.
East movement since morning from 89 to 89.8
oh..no…common mahesa eastla poochandi iruuku..veena andha pakkam poi maatikiratha..thirumbi westkku vandru
This system (one and only) moves in all possible directions
who knows it might write it’s own history and in future we might compare the systems with this one
If someone predicts its path, they will be the king of meterology
look at the sat image.. The cloud mass lookin like cockroach
Now rammb too given the Latest storm position based on the middle vortex similar to JTWC means that three vortex are merging as vortic said sterday
common mahesa… eastla poochandi iruuku..veena andha pakkam poi maatikiratha..thirumbi westkku vandru
olunga sksvram solluratha kaelu…unakku english puriyama nee east pakkam porannu ninachi thaan tamila sonnen…oru vela bengal kitta irukkurathaala bengali la sonnathaan puriyuma
So, no possibility of 2 systems in bay at the same time as predicted by models earlier.
indha system mattum bayla irukkappave padatha paadu pattukitturukku…ithula innonu vandha…aiyooo..ninachi kooda paaka mudiyala
@raijin, yes. The top and middle vortex is one now!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
the bottom one will going to cut itself from the rest as u and sel said and it is going to start its movement 2 wards coastal tamilnadu..its just my assumption with respect to its movement
@ashwinds
what if all the ponds are already dry? nothing will be there to evaporate..
everyday u will see kola sandai and dishyum dishyum btw thanni kudams
Latest Insat Pic. Unlucky TN.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nhacsatimg.htm
kaeka maaten…kaeka maaten…
AT 5N, 120E: A future Tirupati Laddu? Not a suspect for cyclone so far.
90E irukkura oru systemaye TN pakkam izukka 6 naala poraduram..adhu ennadana 88-90 pakkathulaye ninnukittu varamaatenu adampidichittu irukku…
idhula 120E laya..ayyo podumpa…
kaathirundhu kaathirundhu NE Monsoon poguthappa..
poothirundhu poothirundhu poovizhi noguthappa…
Vorticbob what is that red colour thing all over India in the above picture
Clear westerly movement in this animation:
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso1.htm
palanikae paal kudam eduthaalum ,oru adi nagarathu…. incase,if its move,it wil die… UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS).
sel
endha paakam nagarndhaalum, adhu dieaaaaa
theilva sollunga boss…beethiya kelappureengale
IMD has changed only date in the bulletin
The low pressure area over eastcentral and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of Bengal persists. The system may become well marked during next 48 hours. : Same old Story from IMD.
TN rain 12% above average.
Down 79 % on weekly basis
pujara hits another century !! 200*
cheers…
pujara 200 pottachu…namma chennai indha novemberla 200mm edukkuma…
விரல்களை தாண்டி…
sorry… Fingers crossed nu google translate potta விரல்களை தாண்டி… nu kaatuthu
Jtwc says 500 east of chennai and moving SW. Will it be another thane?
chennai don’t need thane…just bountiful rains as d or dd
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Asia!chart.gif
The lpa is trying to sneak around that hpa and will try to enter Lanka and tn. Chances to reach tn are very less though.
HPA wi weaken only by 23rd nov
sel
beethiya kelappureengale..theliva sollunga boss…
endha paakam nagarndhaalum, adhu dieaaaaa
system is playing out a kollywood script… with several twists and turns… keep all of us in edge…. with end up with good climax or an anti climax…. let see what happens
latest GFS says nothing for TN http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/11/16/basis00/swas/prec/12112306_1600.gif
as imd also says no rain till next friday…
Athu north la nagarntha ,athu dissipate aiydum…now northern part of the system is the interacting with the mid-tropo level westerlies,tats y it got scattering twrds NE….. Chances r gud for the system to hit s.ap-N.TN.. Apdi athu nammakita varuthu na,athku munnadi naalae kulir poganum,dew drops iruka kudathu.TDAY absolutely ther was no dew drops but kulir kaathu irunduchu … Athu rendum pochu na, nadantha namakku thaan (s.ap-n.tn).
sel, i could see lots of cloud formation in morning.compared to yesterday… is there any significance to this….
Latest ECMWF :- the systems comes closer to Chennai on 22 nov. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwf/2012/11/16/basis00/swas/pslv/12112200_1600.gif
Late Evening time la cloud vantha, nalla improvement…actually Hp irunthaa cloud form aagathu.. Incase if it comes 4m sea, apdiyae kannu munnadiyae dissipate aiydum…dull ah irukum ,panjimittai mathri irukum,lol..
yes you later part of answer happen today…now there is no much of cloud cover
Ridge oda influence south side la kammiya thaan iruku.. its centering over myanmar http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2012-11-16_13_UpperWind600m.jpg
still 30 minutes for sudharsan’s entry…
oh…i forget that 2day is Friday…he will return at 4:30 as he will have football match…
So still 60 minutes for sudharsan’s entry…
NOGAPS still sticking with their track…. Antha image eh paathalae bayama iruku.
why sel? appadi enna irukku andha imagela?
Sel: Is this confusing system so far for u to forecast ?
seems so..even the forecast models are not able to predict it
Chennai ku eastlayum cloud form aagathu… Follow tis chart, dotted lines na ther wil be no cloud formation…and continous circled line na it denotes cloud formation likely… Wrt to values,20 na cloud formation wil be high,15 or 10 na moderate… Dotted lines na,its under hpa. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5conv.GIF
there is dotted line circle to east of chennai. so there will be no cloud formation…correct me if wrong..
Raja,nalla vela,nan intha system eh track pannala… Gaandu aiydrupaen..
Hi All,
A circulation coming near to chennai on 23rd.
http://202.54.31.51/gfs/gfs_wind_animation.htm
so… the u-turn is confirmed here too…
whether this circulation is due to some formation of system
Shear value decreasing in n.bay n increasing in sw bay.
Will start moving in Northerly direction in next 48 hours.
systema? sheara?
in next 49hrs or for next 48hrs
aiyoo…adhu namakku problem illaya…Shear enga kammiya irukko andha pakkam thaana system move aagum…ennoda puridhal thappa?
No Forecast suggests the development of bay system.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012111600!!/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012111600!!/
hi partha ur cing forceast for 26th nov. see 22nd nov
Cola and Foreca prediction is better.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
4 CM rain predicted from 24th.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/rain10.htm
Consistent rain forecast from 21st.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
namma nilamaye paatheengala…November start aanappa ellorum
40, 50, 60 nu cms la predict pannom…
aana ippo…ellorum andha zero illatiyum paravillangura nilamaikku thallapattirukkom
ippadiyum sollalam…expecting those values atleast in mms
7 day forecast.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/t574-meteo-agro/wche1.htm
wow….a clean wipe
Raijin,
As i said the movement in next 48 hours, look at the position.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
heading twds bangla or burma
Will tilt towards TN in the end.
any reasons
due to HPA in north.
but as now TN is also in HPA as mentioned by you HPA will weaken only by 23rdm nov.. that being case i presume the system will die in sea… HPA will not allow system to hit…TN
indian weatherman predicts moderate rain for S,TN and S.kerala for next 2 to 3 days
Subba!!!….. morning TS/NEM rains return!!! 😳 😉 😀
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=192&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=