356 thoughts on “Another chilly night

  1. Every morning,I open my balcony at 4 and am greeted by a chilly wave of air.I would actually prefer this weather until the next spell arrives.Let’s all hope it is not too far away.
    Good Morning.

  2. Super weather for running. Hope this continues until Dec 3rd and the monsoon come back at its full fury after that. Need to do few more intense training before the marathon

      • Hi partha i Have question to you said that NĚM will end by jan 15.. that happens Not frequently do you think 2005 will be reapted…is there any strong reasons..

      • There is an extension of NEM is for sure. The reason is due to the positive El-Nino continues till Jan 2013.

        I don’t thing there will be a repeat of 2005. That was massive. The beginning itself was strong.

        I could hardly see any dry phase in 2005.

        One thing is sure that we will receive more than normal rainfall this time.

        Another point is that lots of rains during Garbottam that is during the end of margazhi and in the beginning of thai month is not a good sign for next season.

      • yeah in 2005 nem was massive and intense… without letup it rained…. it also extended monsoon till jan… if it happens this nem also then probably we are going to have continuous normal nem since 2004 which is unheard in NEM

  3. AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 89.0E,
    APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
    INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
    EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 151814Z INDICATES A
    MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE WIND FIELD WITH 05-10 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS
    SURROUNDED BY 20-25 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
    PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE UNDERNEATH
    THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
    VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION TO THE GOOD DIVERGENCE BEING
    PRODUCED BY THE STR AXIS, THERE IS MODERATE SPEED DIVERGENCE INTO
    THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE 850MB
    VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS VERY ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST;
    INDICATIVE OF THE GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY NOT
    SHOWING ANY SIGNATURE OF A WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 28-
    30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
    10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
    1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
    CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

  4. Dear All,

    No way the system can move towards north or north east. Its northern latitude never could cross machilipatnam latitude particularly in november. As very high pressure zones prevail in bangladesh & burma / north bay of bengal, its movement towards north will be prohibited. We could get south west movement from now on and the system might comes closer about 12.5 & 85 east and from then it might turn slightly northwest – probably giving heavy rains to south coastal and north tamil nadu from sunday evening. we can anticipate very heavy rains for chennai and of course south tamil nadu may not get any rains from this system.

    ss.

  5. What a huge movement towards south-west in just 3 hours

    At 201211160000 the position is 15.5N 91.3E(courtesy:RAMMB)
    At 201211160300 the position is 13.6N 89.0E(courtesy:us navy)

  6. Partha sir

    Regarding Statistics page…

    I too facing that problem if i access it from my office(using Firefox 15)
    But works fine if accessing from my home (using Firefox 16)

    Let me check in other browsers too

    • checked in all the browsers. I was not able to view the stats page if accessed from my office.. In my office they are blocking some js neccessary to view the contents

      gprofile.js
      quant.js

  7. @raijin, yesterday I was talking about three vortex points and they should merge to form Depression. Sel said bottom votrtex near SL may breakup. It seems we both are right!

    The storm position given by RAMMB is of the top vortex. Where as JTWC takes the middle vortex. That is causing confusion to you. And top and bottom are started merging slowly. To do that one has to be stronger. I think the top one will weaken due to VWS present and gets pulled by the center vortex. The bottom one is likely to breakup and form an independent LPA. In that case the SL LPA will attract the system towards TN. Even 5 KNOTS wind(LPA center) is located south west of the system. As for current conditions I am sure this will happen. Even if the SL vortex doesn’t breakup, in the process of pulling that vortex, system has to move Southwestwards only. I am not telling at this point that it will move all the way down to Chennai. Tomorrow morning, it will be more closer and stronger than today. I am confident of it. Let us take it on 24 hrs basis.

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012&product_filename=2012IO98_MPSATWND_201211160000

    • they are saying the same for past 96 hours and even after 48 hours they might say the same..that is how the current system develops..

  8. Min. Temp :-

    Nunga – 19.4
    Meena – 19.5

    Tirupathur – 14
    Dharmapuri – 15.5
    Vellore – 16.6
    Salem – 18.2
    Coimbatore Ap – 18.6
    Cuddalore – 20.5
    Kodai – 9.8
    Ooty – 8.1

  9. @partha sir

    Regarding stats page

    checked in all the browsers. I was not able to view the stats page if accessed from my office.. In my office they are blocking some js neccessary to view the contents

    gprofile.js
    quant.js

    that might be ur case too if u are accessing from ur office

  10. Mr mahesan you know that there will be lot hpa in the north as the sun is in southern hemisphere. But despite all these warnings instead of coming to your favourite place Chennai you went north. Look at you now. You are trapped. You poor little guy where will you go now.alright its not too late. Just take a u turn and move along that path you will find us. Don’t worry if have any difficulty just mail me we will help you.take care. See you soon.;)

    • I think you feel you are insulated from the notorious “Madras Thanni Kashtam”. 1987, 1993, 2003, 2004 were all very bad that too in a city which was much smaller compared to what it is now

      • Correct me if i am wrong, but our dependence on Blore/ Andhra is significant compared to our own minimal internal captive storage which we tend to convert into dumping grounds.

        And Rain is welcome, but in its absence this weather is better than the relentless heat we normally face – look at it this way, atleast the amount of water which evaporates from our minimal ponds is less 😛

  11. Now rammb too given the Latest storm position based on the middle vortex similar to JTWC means that three vortex are merging as vortic said sterday

    • olunga sksvram solluratha kaelu…unakku english puriyama nee east pakkam porannu ninachi thaan tamila sonnen…oru vela bengal kitta irukkurathaala bengali la sonnathaan puriyuma

    • indha system mattum bayla irukkappave padatha paadu pattukitturukku…ithula innonu vandha…aiyooo..ninachi kooda paaka mudiyala

    • the bottom one will going to cut itself from the rest as u and sel said and it is going to start its movement 2 wards coastal tamilnadu..its just my assumption with respect to its movement

  12. @ashwinds

    what if all the ponds are already dry? nothing will be there to evaporate..
    everyday u will see kola sandai and dishyum dishyum btw thanni kudams

    • 90E irukkura oru systemaye TN pakkam izukka 6 naala poraduram..adhu ennadana 88-90 pakkathulaye ninnukittu varamaatenu adampidichittu irukku…

      idhula 120E laya..ayyo podumpa…

      kaathirundhu kaathirundhu NE Monsoon poguthappa..
      poothirundhu poothirundhu poovizhi noguthappa…

  13. palanikae paal kudam eduthaalum ,oru adi nagarathu…. incase,if its move,it wil die… UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS).

  14. IMD has changed only date in the bulletin

    The low pressure area over eastcentral and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of Bengal persists. The system may become well marked during next 48 hours. : Same old Story from IMD.

    • system is playing out a kollywood script… with several twists and turns… keep all of us in edge…. with end up with good climax or an anti climax…. let see what happens

  15. Athu north la nagarntha ,athu dissipate aiydum…now northern part of the system is the interacting with the mid-tropo level westerlies,tats y it got scattering twrds NE….. Chances r gud for the system to hit s.ap-N.TN.. Apdi athu nammakita varuthu na,athku munnadi naalae kulir poganum,dew drops iruka kudathu.TDAY absolutely ther was no dew drops but kulir kaathu irunduchu … Athu rendum pochu na, nadantha namakku thaan (s.ap-n.tn).

  16. Late Evening time la cloud vantha, nalla improvement…actually Hp irunthaa cloud form aagathu.. Incase if it comes 4m sea, apdiyae kannu munnadiyae dissipate aiydum…dull ah irukum ,panjimittai mathri irukum,lol..

    • oh…i forget that 2day is Friday…he will return at 4:30 as he will have football match…

      So still 60 minutes for sudharsan’s entry…

    • namma nilamaye paatheengala…November start aanappa ellorum
      40, 50, 60 nu cms la predict pannom…

      aana ippo…ellorum andha zero illatiyum paravillangura nilamaikku thallapattirukkom

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