524 thoughts on “Another cold night, revival of monsoon possible next week

  1. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
    90.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 90.1E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST
    OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
    CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 162204Z SSMI
    85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
    CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
    DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDERNEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    AXIS WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY
    THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
    KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
    THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
    ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

  2. The less we expect,the more it will rain..Can anyone post the exact rainfall data of NEM 2005 spell wise–..We had a min of 6 to 7 spells of rain that year starting midnight of Oct 27.(.2300 mm..approx..) One helluva NEM..

  3. It has moved NW ūüė¶ …. I think the system is drunk and doesn’t know its route now.. But it has for strengthened to 20 knots…

    rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012

  4. I think the system is going in for a loop.It won’t move further north above say,16.5.After looping steady SW will be seen.

  5. As suspected,this will mostly turn out to be another cyclone.It’s path is as if it wants to intensify.Clocking a lot of hours in the sea.May be even a severe cyclone/very severe cyclone.Whether it will be beneficial to chennai is entirely something else.

      • See,I know it may too early to predict things right now,But TN has the highest probability of landfall for this system right now.N.TN more so.

      • Considering that TN is in hpa how syst√©m will hit..or else syst√©m has capacity to get pass ridge

  6. Partha sir,pls dnt post any wrong info.. new comers hav to learn something.. sory to say,u r trying to say sumthing but 70% of the post 4m u are mostly wrng … If the divergence at upper levels is greater than the convergence at the surface, system will intensify….currently the divergence is higher n not lower…

  7. The min. temp recorded tis early morning:-

    Kolapakkam – 18
    Kattankulathur – 18.6
    Chembarambakkam – 18.9
    Meena – 19.0
    Nunga – 19.3
    Avadi – 19.5
    Poonamalle – 19.5
    Guindy – 19.2

    Ooty – 7.1
    Kodai – 9.5
    Hosur – 9.8
    Coonoor – 10.2
    Tirupathur – 13.2
    Valparai – 14.5
    Dharmapuri – 14.6
    Vellore – 17.3
    Salem – 18
    Neyveli – 18.6
    Comibatore AP – 19.5

    • hosur readings always looks suspect to me.. i hav seen it go to even 6-8 degrees in peak winter when bangalore will be at 12 or so.. and i hav been in hosur and i never felt it tat cold as the temperature indicates..

      • Since the moisture in air and humidity is more we cant feel that much.

        Even in chennai it is 19C for the past 2 days but we don’t feel that much cooler like what we have the same temp during Dec and Jan.

    • This series in itself is very pathetic.Why make England play on Indian pitches?They can’t play spin if their life depended on it.We can’t face England and Australia pacers on their pitches.We play the rising ball like a school kid and they do the same with the turning one.It’s a horrible match up.

      • this make mockery of ICC test ratings….because top test ranking fail to perform in all the countries… i think only aussies and WI of 80’s can be considered as world champs because they dominated for more than decade or so….

  8. Partha sir convergence is something tat deals wit low level, n divergence with upper level….. If UL Divergence value is more than convergence value , then ther will be intensification with intense convection build in case of system .

    • Selvan,

      I did not talk about the strength of Convergence and Divergence.

      Strength of divergence will be more during D or DD or TS.

      I was talking about the circumference.

      Once the system get intensified then the divergence circumference will be limited and If it is in case of LPA the divergence circumference will be more.

      That is what i have explained to Raijin yesterday.

  9. FORECAST FOR CHENNAI CITY AND NEIGHBOURHOOD:

    For next 24 hours: The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Surface wind will be strong and gusty at times. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 30 and 20 degree Celsius respectively.

    For next 48 hours: The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Surface wind will be strong and gusty at times. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 30 and 20 degree Celsius respectively.

    Source IMD.

  10. Why so dry in peak November i DON’T KNOW THE REASON what is the the problem wind pattern is not coming because of nilam cyclone its changes why so dry when will monsoon receive please answer

      • Atmospheric pressure is the force per unit area exerted into a surface by the weight of air above that surface in the atmosphere of Earth (or that of another planet). In most circumstances atmospheric pressure is closely approximated by the hydrostatic pressure caused by the mass of air above the measurement point. Low-pressure areas have less atmospheric mass above their location, whereas high-pressure areas have more atmospheric mass above their location.

        The standard atmosphere (symbol: atm) is a unit of pressure and is defined as being equal to 101.325 kPa.[2] The following units are equivalent, but only to the number of decimal places displayed: 1013.25 millibars or HPa.

        Wind is initially accelerated from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure.[42] This is due to density (or temperature and moisture) differences between two air masses. Since stronger high pressure systems contain cooler or drier air, the air mass is more dense and flows towards areas that are warm or moist, which are in the vicinity of low-pressure areas in advance of their associated cold fronts. The stronger the pressure difference, or pressure gradient, between a high pressure system and a low-pressure system, the stronger the wind.[43] Thus, stronger areas of low pressure are associated with stronger winds.

    • due to this it will enable the HPA to weaken in TN… help in to bring winds from sea .. can create a enabling situation to resume NEM

  11. Its in a low shear zone of 5 to 10 knots but shear is very high abt 30 -40 knots North & NE of the system, we need to wait for the further movement, looks likely to hit AP coast, just a guess !!!!!!!!!!!

    • pls note its only a rough calculation and minimum may be equal to min temp only if there is 100 % RH and fog forms in the morning during High Pressure or it is equal during LPA and raining when RH will be near 100%

  12. Cat,

    I dont think the dew and min works this way. The table is ok but this cannot be 100% accurate.

    Please wait and see.

    My simple equation is – When humidity is less, dew point is low then there is not moisture in air, also the hpa is high means the condition over the area is dry, it has to bring down the temparature based on dew point temp.

    • IMD sattelite bulletin….
      VORTEX OVER EC BAY CENTERED NEAR 15.5N/LONG 90.0E (.) INTENSITY
      T1.5 (.) CTT MINUS 79 DEG C (.) ASSTD BKN TO SLD LOW/MED CLOUDS
      WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER BAY BET LAT 13.5N TO 20.5N
      EAST OF LONG 88.0E ADJ ARAKAN COT (.) its already a dep according to imd!!! ūüėģ

    • See what happens when there is fair weather. It turns people to philosophers because nothing happens in the weather front so they must break the monotony. Any way well said Kea !!!

  13. IMD issued.

    It is centered at 15.5N and 90.0E from 1050KM east-northeast of chennai, intensified into a Depression, would intensify into Deep Depression and move slowly north westwards for next 24 hours, then will move west-west southwestwards towards South AP and North TN coast during subsequent 48 hours.

    One more alert,

    Rain or thundershowers would occur at many places in TN & AP from 24th.

  14. latest from IMD mid day report…

    the well marked low pressure area over eastcentral and adjoining southeast &
    westcentral Bay of Bengal has concentrated into a depression. It lay centred at 1130
    hrs.¬†IST¬†of¬†today,¬†17th¬†November¬†2012¬†near¬†lat.¬†15.5¬įN/¬†long.90.0¬įE¬†over¬†eastcentral
    Bay of Bengal, about 1050 km east­northeast of Chennai, 750 km east­southeast of
    Visakhapatnam and 650 km southeast of Paradip. The system would intensify into a deep depression and move slowly northwestwards during next 24 hours. It would move west/west­ southwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu coasts
    during subsequent 48 hours.

    IMD says it will become DD come close to SAP and N TN

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