Tropical Storm development likely in Bay

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, NEM-2015

A disorganized area of thunderstorm persists to the east of Srilanka.This disturbance is showing some signs of intensification and  would  develop into a low pressure in the next one or two days. Computer models are slowly organizing this weak tropical feature into a cyclonic storm by the end of this week. Currently, conditions are somewhat favorable in south west bay for further development. This system is expected to move closer to TN coast around  October 27 and will bring widespread heavy rainfall to the coastal parts of TN triggering the onset of north east monsoon around that time.

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Chennai: Maximum temperature is likely to move closer to 32C with mostly cloudy skies.
Coimbatore: City will see max temperature around 33C. Thunderstorm can be expected during early morning hours
Madurai: City is expected to be  cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm during early morning hours. Temperature will be around 32C.
Vellore: City will remain dry with temperature hovering close to 32C.
Trichy: Temperature to be in 32-33C. Sky will be cloudy with a chance of showers during night/early morning hours.

1,727 thoughts on “Tropical Storm development likely in Bay”

  1. Statistically a system that incubates off Sri Lanka typically makes its way up the TN coast.. so rains are guaranteed. In the meanwhile there are some pop ups near Chennai today? And it is 28.4C, rather warm

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  4. From JTWC

    THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 83.0E,
    IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 83E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF COLOMBO,
    SRI LANKA. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDING. A 241207Z
    NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
    THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
    AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (05-10 KNOTS). HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD HINDER SIGNIFICANT
    DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
    POLEWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA AS SOME GLOBAL MODELS
    SUGGEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
    KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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  7. Wet Diwali likely as per latest GFS. But GFS has said a of of things past few days. Will need to wait and see

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  20. We have to get good rainfall from now on till thursday/friday. Once the system moves above our latitude and we may have to wait longer to get any rainfall thereafter.

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    • No need to wait longer after the current system moves away from chennai at 1st Nov we will have Easterly Wave so Rains will continue and diwali System track starts next :p

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  25. Good Morning all.

    Write up is encouraging for good rains starting on 27th. Will that be onset or 28th is the date?

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  28. 770 mm more required in 66 more NEM days for a normal monsoon. Looks very simple. But with NEM you never know. Would require atleast 3 decent systems.

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  29. Corporation to initiate steps to tackle flooding

    Chennai Corporation has started taking measures to prevent flooding during the onset of northeast monsoon this week.

    “We have received a flood warning for the period between October 26-30. We have taken measures to prevent flooding,” said an official. Some of the residents of areas near waterways will be evacuated to safer buildings during the onset of the northeast monsoon.

    http://m.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/corporation-to-initiate-steps-to-tackle-flooding/article7801572.ece

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  30. Imd page says nem onset on 28th October, heavy rains forecasted. Due to rough weather from.Tuesday fishermen adviced not to venture into the sea. Heavy rain forecasted from Wednesday.

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  34. A Small Advice To all New Bloggers Who Are Going to Join in our Blog.

    1) All Models First Will Show NTNSAP Landfall With 750 mm+ For Chn.
    2) Then, It Will Slowly Postpone or Decrease
    3)GFS is A Main Culprit,It Will Always Show TN Landfall and Change it!
    4) Some Times This May Turn Into A Sunny Day! With 0 mm
    5) COLA This Will Show 400 mm The Next Hour It May Change Into 0 mm
    6) So,Please Don’t Get Over Excited On Seeing These Models.
    7) I am Not Saying Don’t Ever See Models,I am Just Saying Have Them as Alternative of Just Checking System Births.
    8) Have Low Expectations and Enjoy More!

    HAPPY NORTH – EAST MONSOON – 2k15 !!! HAPPY BLOGGING!

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  42. MME has changed their precipitation anomaly outlooks going per change in models. Now it is shown as per the expected movement of the expected system. Earlier , the scenario was expecting a different scenario.

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  44. Good morning.
    A low level circulation centre with formative banding is located approx 350km east of Colombo.Land interaction may hinder significant development of the system.Expected to track north- northwestward further.

    Another system is expected in Arabian sea and expected to track towards northwest and north.

    Both the systems are expected to give substantial quantum of rains to Tamilnadu , Kerala and south peninsula.

    Chennai is expected to receive rain from 27th oct.However some parts of city may have light rain in 24 hrs.

    South Tamilnadu including Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli and southern coastal areas would experience heavy rain from today.

    Interior Tamilnadu and north Tamilnadu districts will have rain from 27/28th oct.

    Cyclone formation chance can not be ruled out.Will be known in 48 hours.

    As informed last week, IMD officialy announced that North east monsoon onset would be on 28th oct.

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  57. As there has been dramatic changes in prediction starting from 23rd with 3 more days to go even for a clear system to emerge it is too prematured to jump to conclusions, I have a strong feeling that there will develop favorable conditions leading to peninsula getting a healthy dose of rain. As somebody posted a couple of days back it is very difficult to predict whether in tropical regions.

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  71. Neeya Nana endra pottiyul, Arabian sea lead edukurar and its indicating NE movement towards west coast.

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  73. Today’s pre nem meet at Semmozhi Poonga may be covered by reporters from various news agencies. Hope, we can show them a good gathering of our bloggers.

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  83. As we enter into short range runs, we can get good consensus from model runs for the next 3 days. The failure of models will reduce drastically.

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  85. 93B VIIRS image shot during midnight.. system is overlying above 30*c sst waters with very fav conditions.. this shld have exploded in no time,land interaction is stopping this one from rapid intensification

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  90. Our system is steered down under the influence of ridge in Maldives. Meanwhile ARB system tries to loosen the grip of maldives ridge and get readies for upper level steering.

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  94. My expectations on rains till oct 31
    Oct 22– 500 mm
    Oct 23–400 mm
    Oct 24–250 mm
    Oct 25–100 mm
    Oct 26–??

    Reply