The NEM Show is round the corner

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) near Sri Lanka has been triggering moderate showers for North TN yesterday and will continue to seed isolated heavy rains over South TN today. Rest of India will stay dry.
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All eyes are on the possible System formation off the Sri Lankan Coast in the North Indian Ocean. Weather Models continue to build this system as the trigger for the North East Monsoon (NEM) Onset over TN. Computer models differ on the track, but there is some consensus on the fact that it will impact South and North TN from Tuesday next week.

Chennai – Maximum temperature would be around 32c and some parts of Chennai are likely to be overcast with drizzles.

Vellore – Temperature may be around 33-34c. Dry weather likely to prevail.

Coimbatore – City likely to have a light rains. Max Temperature to be at 31c.

Trichy – There is no significant rain expected today. Temperature could peak at 34c

Madurai – Day Temperature likely to around with 33-34c with partly cloudy skies.

2,408 thoughts on “The NEM Show is round the corner

  1. What a change in forecast from 377 mm 24 hours back to 124 mm now. Wonder what’s going to happen in the next 48-72 hours.

  2. Actually too much of hype only on this site …the other places there is no mention about this. ……We jump to conclusions very fast here…..

    • Hype is surely a strong word . You have to understand when there are about 200 bloggers contributing during the much awaited season, there is bound to be big expectations..Every blogger has his views..Most of them follow various weather models and try to come with their ideas or observations. You have mentioned other places..What is that?

      • Well said Novak. I think it is very unfair for anyone to blame the blog based on someone’s personal views. This is an open platform after all.

      • Welcome Suraj.long time no see. I still. Remember the extreme motivation you provided last yr,when everybody were down

      • Thanks sriram…work and other commitments had me busy but hopefully will try to blog regularly🙂

  3. So the story repeats in the familiar lines. GFS differs totally from ECMWF initialy only to just follow the same track as the date nears😦

  4. Chennai gets rain but monsoon 4 days away
    ————————-
    Rain-bearing clouds seem to have set in over parts of Tamil Nadu, but it may be a bit premature to rejoice. Following unexpected cyclonic activity in the Philippines, the weatherman has now predicted a further four-day delay in the onset of the northeast monsoon.

    However, this year, the city has received only 80mm of rain in October, a shortage of 54% compared to the average 176mm.

    Deprived of rainfall and inflows from neighbouring states, the four lakes that provide water to the city -Poondi, Cholavaram, Red Hills and Chembarambakkam -had a combined storage level of 297 million cubic feet on Friday , which is one-tenth of the corresponding level of 2,169 mcft last year.

    Water conservation expert and Rain Centre director Sekar Raghavan said a delayed monsoon may not have a negative impact as it may be made good by copious rain later. “ As long as the city gets its share of 800mm rainfall from northeast monsoon the situation may not be bleak,“ he said.
    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Chennai-gets-rain-but-monsoon-4-days-away-24102015001046&Mode=1

  5. Conditions looks very Chill and its Shivering. Yesterdays Rain, Overnight Mist and with Dry Air around Early Morning turned much Cool. Cars are Wet with Dew’s
    City Outskirts and Tiruvallur Dists experiencing Even more Cool Weather

  6. வடகிழக்கு பருவ மழை (Dr RAmanane sollitaar puyal patri)

    ——————————–
    இதுகுறித்து, சென்னை வானிலை ஆய்வு மைய இயக்குனர் ரமணன் கூறியதாவது:வங்கக் கடலில், தற்போது மீண்டும், காற்றழுத்தம் ஏற்படும் சூழல் உருவாகி உள்ளது. இது, புயலாக மாறி இந்திய தீபகற்பத்தை நோக்கி நகரும். 27 அல்லது, 28ல், அழுத்தம் தீவிரமடைந்து, அன்று முதல், தமிழகம் முழுவதும் மழை பெய்யும்.இவ்வாறு அவர் கூறினார்.

    http://www.dinamalar.com/news_detail.asp?id=1370829

  7. Divergence at the upper levels is spread and higher across south bay and the adjoining equatorial Indian ocean along with lower VWS

  8. Jadeja’s spells in last six innings:
    ===============================
    7/60 against Hyderabad in second innings

    6/75 in 21 overs against Hyderabad in first innings

    7/55 in 25 overs against Jharkhand in second innings

    6/71 in 19.5 overs against Jharkhand in first innings

    6/27 in 27.3 overs against Tripura in first innings

    5/45 in 25 overs against Tripura in second innings

  9. October 28 Set for State’s Date With Northeast Monsoon

    Over the last two weeks Chennai alone has recorded 27.2 mm and 52.8 mm excess rainfall, and for the next 48 hours experts have forecast a cloudy sky followed by rain or thundershower in some areas. The city would record a maximum and minimum temperature of 32 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.

    “The temperature will come down in the following days, as we are expecting a good rainfall this season,” said S B Thampi, Deputy Director of the Regional Meteorological Department.

    http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/chennai/October-28-Set-for-States-Date-With-Northeast-Monsoon/2015/10/24/article3094395.ece

  10. Everyone hyped 350 mm – 250 mm – 450 mm. Thats why dissapointment. Irrespective of system making Chennai landfall, there is going to be good rains.

    Models always underestimate easterly rains. Like yesterday.

  11. Imd and our very own Sr Ramanan says a storm.or deep depression would hit our coast next week after hitting it will weaken and move to gangetic west Bengal. Imd saying this easterly wave will bring the storm.

  12. Latest ECMWF run is positive for us.. System is getting sucked up by WD very fast and will allow next easterly wave to enter BOB in November first week

  13. There is a cross-equatorial trough connecting Sri Lanka circulation and the South Indian Ocean system filled with deep convection

  14. ECMWF increased precipitation forecast for Chennai.. It’s predicting very heavy rains, incessant rains infact for 36 hours

  15. hi all,please dont keep hopes on present LPA expected to form near srilanka.Many bay disturbances became utter flop this year.if the expected low near srilanka becomes fizzled out also,no surprises.But i fear one thing,if present low near srilanka moves west,then into comorin sea and then into arabian sea,intensify into a cyclone and moves towards yemen/oman,its the worst thing ever for a NEM.hope present expected low replicates october 2013 end LPA

  16. All of you know 1996 NEM was a good one. But did you know that after a good start to October with a depression crossing Chennai, a cyclone hit India/Bangladesh border on October 28th. To add on to this misery, the remnants of 34W developed into a category 4 cyclone and hit close to Kakinada. Chennai got a mere 6 mm.

    So, from October 26th to November 17th, Chennai recorded a scanty 6.1 mm.

    An easterly wave then gave 27 cm in a week followed by 8 more cm in 3 days which ceased after the famous loopy cyclone formed. This caused the rains to end which returned only on December 7th. The cyclone hit Chennai and gave 92 mm. An easterly wave hit next week giving 29 cm which made that NEM a good one.

  17. Friends! PJ, Rao, KEA, Vela, Sel, Susa and IMD , all are expecting good rains in this NEM. so don’t confuse with models. Be happy.

  18. Please remember this word right through the NEM Period
    detachment
    dɪˈtatʃm(ə)nt/
    noun
    1.the state of being objective or aloof.
    “he felt a sense of detachment from what was going on”
    synonyms:objectivity, dispassion, dispassionateness, disinterest, indifference,aloofness, remoteness, distance, open-mindedness, neutrality, lack of bias, lack of prejudice, impartiality, fairness, fair-mindedness,equitability, even-handedness, unselfishness
    “as a weather blogger, you look on weather models with detachment”

  19. Remember friends, ECWMF is not considering side by side systems so close to each other. GFS says en vali thani vali.

  20. Our guy says i wont move up, WD will take me with him and so he stays. While Arb moves up saying i like him.

  21. Here are rainfall predictions for next 3 weeks
    Oct 25 – 31. 10-15 cm
    Nov 1 – Nov 7 5-8 cm
    Nov 8-Nov 14. 25 – 35 cm ( Depression or Cat 2 system is the question. Nov 9,10,11 dates to watch out for.)

    In the next 3 weeks a cumulative 40 cm of rainfall is possible.

    I will stick with Rao’s prognosis.

  22. Come with me, requests our BoB system. I wont die so easily. No sign of NE curve. Pavam WD trough. Will it play a role ?

  23. See the rain, as i said. Its win win situation. Why u guys only cyclonic rains. Malai vantha pothum ga.

  24. Chennai u asked for it and here GFS gives it for u. SW bayla irunthu vantha enna, Arabian seala irunthu vantha enna.

    • Lets see, So much i think this is the trickiest system for many years. Many experts will struggle.

  25. A massive western disturbance can push the system east. after 14 north latitude. this is a sheer bad luck. any way next 2 days crucial.

    ss

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