Battle of the Seas

The much awaited weak Tropical system in the Bay of Bengal will be battling another Tropical disturbance in the Arabian sea.The result could well determine the quantum of rains for TN for the end Oct /1st week Nov period. Current forecasts offer a clear advantage to the Arabian Sea System. Another variable in the form of a Western Disturbance (WD) will also determine the track of the weak BOB system. The Brewing system in the Arabian Sea is expected to give bountiful rain to coastal Kerala and substantial rain to southern tip of Tamil Nadu. Increase in rainfall activity will be witnessed in Tamil Nadu from Oct 27th.

As easterly waves are going to set in, Chennai is expected to receive some good showers within the next 3 days and rainfall activity would continue for 3 to 4 days. South Interior Tamil Nadu will have notable rain from Oct 28th. Showers and possibly some steadier, heavier rain moves across entire Tamil Nadu from Oct 28th..
The WD has given the first snowfall in Gulmarg and this will continue to see Rain or Snow at most places over J & K and few places over Uttarakhand. Isolated rainfall is expected in some parts of Maharashtra, East Uttar Pradesh

Chennai – Fair weather likely in day time with late night isolated shower at some places
Vellore – Cold start to Monday as cooler air returns. The Sunny weather will see Max temperature touching 32c
Madurai – Partly cloudy conditions expected in city. Max temperature may touch 31c
Trichy – Partly cloudy conditions expected in city. Mercury may touch 33c at noon. Drizzle expected in late evening.
Coimbatore – Morning clouds will give way to some Sun. Day time Temperature may like to touch 31c. No rain expected

North East Monsoon

Cyclone conceived on 28th Nov 1996 in the Bay of Bengal, crossed near Chennai around 2.30AM IST on 7 Dec 1996.The cyclone persisted for 9 days which is reported to be very long life compared to any cyclone in the Indian Ocean/Bay of Bengal. It caused severe damage to life and property.

1,933 thoughts on “Battle of the Seas

  1. The time of the year we all have been waiting for is almost here. This is the NEM onset week. First NEM rains should begin Tuesday night or Wednesday. Do not expect any high figures, keep your expectations low. You don’t be disappointed.

  2. Dear friends,
    Am not sure if the below is true or false, but we don’t lose anything by taking care and precautions:
    According to Meteorological department, due to a low pressure formation from the 26th Oct, which is likely to move North, there is going to be very heavy rain in Chennai on 28th and 29th October.
    According to the information, Chennai may see an unprecedented 30 cm of rain on 28th itself!
    If that happens, I figure, Chennai will be submerged. We really need to gear up now and be warned of the circumstances.
    Take great care!
    God bless you all!
    This was a message which is being circulated in what’s app

  3. convection at Arabian side. But no need to worry as more convection entering towards BOB system from SE-BOBπŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘

  4. Omg..severely battering.. Nice cumulonimbus
    Looks like shelf clouds approaching.. 50 km east of vellore
    Towards vellore, clouds clearing..

  5. Dear Bloggers! Congratulations!!; the growth is steady and balanced and rooted in dedicated effort to take this highly complex natural phenomenon to common man. Instead of taking a curious look at the blog, the media in future will take this blog as the first stop to update their weather reporting……I am sure.

  6. Yesterday’s Meet Featured in Paper Today!!!! Thank You For Gajendran Sir For Organising the Press People.

    Weather bloggers are on a mission to create awareness among city residents about the El Nino year and its impact on the northeast monsoon. There is a sense of urgency to their message because we are in an El Nino year.

    β€œWe expect the monsoon to be normal. An El Nino year gives good northeast monsoon. It will be a good steady rain,” said a weather blogger. He was one of the many weather bloggers who had gathered at Semmozhi Poonga on Sunday, ahead of the northeast monsoon.

    On the flip side, an El Nino year also brings cyclones and storms.

    β€œWe are planning to create a mobile app to give short-term warning to residents in the city,” said P. Gopalakrishnan, another weather blogger. β€œWe are now checking whether we can add to the knowledge of government bodies. We blog on a daily basis and we get at least 2000 comments a day. We are trying to make sure our forecast is as perfect as possible. This particular meeting is aimed at understanding the monsoon,” he said.

    Pointing to the development of a tropical storm in the bay, one blogger said β€œa disorganised area of thunderstorm persists to the east of Sri Lanka. This disturbance is showing some signs of intensification and would develop into a low pressure area in the next one or two days. Computer models show that this weak tropical feature will develop into a cyclonic storm by the end of this week. Currently, conditions are somewhat favourable in southwest bay for further development. This system is expected to move closer to Tamil Nadu coast around October 27 and will bring heavy rainfall to the coastal parts, triggering the north east monsoon.”

    The city’s blogging community plans to share information on monsoon with other communities in Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad.

  7. Lot of Monsoon Clouds moving in. Good chance for Rains from tmrw, Today isolated showers possible at isolated places

  8. 93B has lost some convection but will try to strengthen again with good mositure feed and boiling BOB.

    Showers to start from tonight getting heavier from tomorrow night.NEM onset 24/48 hours away!😁

  9. Some low fast moving typical nem clouds moving into the city from east.. hopefully this is just the start of the better things that are gona follow

  10. Good morning bloggers! Nice to see so many youngsters in the meet! Let us have a nice monsoon ahead. BTW, what about the hugely expected/hyped cyclone expected this weekend, still on or fizzled out? Is it ‘varum… aana varadhu…’ πŸ˜‰ type

  11. Low Pressure Area forms in BoB off Sri Lanka Coast, Southern Tamil Nadu gets battered, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.10.2015
    A low pressure area (LPA) has formed over southwest Bay of Bengal off Srilanka coast. The LPA is likely to become well marked low pressure (WML) during next 48 hours.

    in mm (min 10 mm)

    Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist) – 133
    Kadayanallur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 97
    Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 81
    Kadayam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 74
    Satankulam (Toothukudi Dist) 70
    Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 62
    Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist) – 57
    Ramanadhi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 57
    Munchirai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 55
    Keelapavoor (Tirunelveli Dist) – 55
    Lower Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 52
    Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 52
    Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 50
    Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 50
    Udangudi (Thoothukudi Dist) – 46
    Adavinayanar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 45
    Kalakadu (Tirunelveli Dist) – 42
    Upper Kodayar (Kanyakumari Dist) -41
    Alangulam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 41
    Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist) – 40
    Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist) – 39
    Karpandhi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 36
    Palayamkottai (Tirunelveli Dist) – 35
    Kannadiyan (Tirunelveli Dist) – 34
    Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 33
    Tirunelveli (Tirunelveli Dist) – 32
    Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist) – 32
    Kottaram (Kanyakumari Dist) – 32
    Kodimudiyaru (Tirunelveli Dist) – 30
    Servalar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 29
    Lower Kodayar (Kanyakumari Dist) – 28
    Rajakkamangalam (Kanyakumari Dist) – 24
    Tiruchendur (Toothukudi Dist) – 23
    Balmore (Kanyakumari Dist) – 23
    Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 21
    Papakudi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 21
    Radhapuram (Tirunelveli Dist) – 19
    Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist) – 19
    Thiruvattar (Kanyakumari Dist) – 18
    Usilampatti (Madurai Dist) – 18
    Nambiyar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 17
    Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 16
    Manur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 15
    Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist) – 15
    Aranmanaipudur (Theni Dist) – 15
    Killiyoor (Kanyakumari Dist) – 15
    Anaikadangu (Kanyakumari Dist) – 15
    Maniyachi (Toothukudi Dist) – 14
    Manamadurai (Sivaganga Dist) – 14
    Melaneelithanallur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 14
    Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist) – 14
    Mambalathuraiaru (Kanyakumari Dist) – 13
    Gundar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 12
    Tiruppullani (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 12
    Tirupathur (Sivaganga Dist) – 12
    Adayamadai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 12
    Koliporvilai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 12
    Mandapam (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 10
    Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist) – 10
    Suralode (Kanyakumari Dist) – 10

    • Any decent capacity dams are present in the above said areas? Hope South TN is not tottering in water scarcity as Chennai.

      • In KK and Nellai dist we have large storage dams like papansam manimuthar & servalar all in western ghats. Peachipari & perunchani in KK dist

  12. Good Morning,

    Just around 18 hours to go for NEM rainfall. I am expecting from tonight or tomorrow early morning.

    Great to see the team creating some awareness yesterday in Semmozhi Poonga, also happy to hear that we are going to give alert to residences. Thats good news. Congrats to all.

    Regarding systems – As expected no cyclone’s forming, but the system in AS going to trigger NEM onset and then LOW over Bay will take charge in next 48 hours time. The initial trigger will be from AS system as it is intensifying faster and the LOW near Srilanka is far below in latitude. The strengthening of AS system will move the trough line northwards in latitude and make it to cover entire TN and SAP by tonight, this will trigger the onset. IMD will see the next 36 hours of rainfall pattern and then declare NEM onset by Wednesday the 28th October.

  13. omg..according to that paper link, poondi+ red hills+chem reservoirs now 294 mcft storage against full capacity of 11057 mcft ( just 2.7 % full)

  14. Dear Kea Weather team..
    Pleased as a punch to to see joyous mood amongst the bloggers. Great to see the numbers that swelled in yesterday at Semmozhi Poonga. Spl Thanks to “Lord Gajendran” for making things happen in terms of excellent media coverage. Fantastic effort really. Kudos Pradeep and Gopal and others for the timely ignition, steering and anchoring the meet at Semmozhi poonga. Good to see lot of debutants yesterday. What is a meet without the captain of the “Kea vessel” Thank God Kea was one among the crew.
    Weldone Team..

  15. I am least bothered about the systems and its strength in the coming days, at last rains guaranteed that too good intensity rainfall possible as AS and Bay systems to trigger more moisture incursion towards TN.

    Enjoy rainy days…

    • Agree.. Elnino or not , Arabian see gets the luck always in getting a cyclone nowadays…This elnino and extended SWM ensured that no big cyclone like HudHud this time in BOB ( Pre NEM monsoon). Atleast that way ,I am happy, Moisture in BOB is good. and not dumped in to orissa till now..

  16. ELNINO year – During SWM Arabian Sea the worst affected, During NEM AS is the most benefitted, hence there is an indirect relationship between AS and ELNINO.

    During this season, Gulf and East Africa will be benefitted most.

  17. 93B, moved Nw & LLC seen over land . It is well likely to follow Ecmwf track triggering good rains over coastal tn especially over north tn..

  18. Congrats to our bloggers for featuring in Hindu Article! Kudos!!

    A cloudy, hazy day to start of the proceedings here in Thanjavur. The ever cherishable low level monsoon clouds and its drizzles are yet to creep in. Great feeling to watch this happen.

  19. Congratulations Bloggers and experts. keep up the work and meetings. Hopefully next meet will have more participants including me.

  20. nice to see the meet photo.way to go and thanks for the efforts by the whole team that made it possible.
    best wishes.

  21. That stupid AS system unexpectedly formed otherwise our BOB system might have turned cat.2 or 3 very easily and could have definitely crossed at NTN/SAP πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ™ˆπŸ™ˆ

    • this is better than cyclone , depression will give more rain and stay near to the coast for long time than cyclone

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