The current phase of subdued rainfall is likely to continue over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka. Isolated light to moderate showers would occur over Karnataka coast with sporadic rainfall across the Malabar coast. One or two weak thundershowers could develop over Tamil Nadu in the evening with no significant rainfall. This pattern is likely to continue until a wet phase arrives around September 2nd.
The current low pressure area near Jharkhand is likely to trigger scattered showers with isolated heavy rainfalls across East and East Central India which includes Odisha, eastern Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and isolated parts of Bihar, West Bengal and Telangana. The heaviest rainfall from this spell could be witnessed at Chhattisgarh. Isolated showers will be experienced over the Northern Plains.
Ayodhya in UP for 2nd day records heavy rainfall of 123 mm. Kondagaon in Chattisgarh records 178 mm, while Salekasa in Vidarbha records 138 mm
Chennai: A hot day with temperatures hitting 37 C is likely. Not much on the rain front.
Coimbatore: A warm day peaking at about 32-33 C with little chance of rain.
Madurai: A blazing day in store. Don’t be surprised if the thermometer flares up to 38-39 C. Chances of rain are low here as well.
KeaWeather Archives 
Good morning!
some ts NE and SE of chennai!
Asia possesses 12 of the Top 19 world single-day rainfall records.
How many in Chennai?
not will be even one record
I bet not even 1 in top 1000
Almost all of them must be from Tropical cyclones…i guess
three category 4 hurricanes at east-pacific at the same time clearly indicating the strength in Niño 3.4. fourth system in making.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
Fresh Oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) was ignited by MJO+ER+KW+MRG. First time all equatorial waves are in action at IO to ignite much needed OTCZ. I never seen this type of active waves working all at same time in IO. One more interesting point is that new MISO-cell along ITCZ gets ignited over south-china sea, which will travel in W/NW direction to enter BOB. In combination of these dynamics, rainfall quantum over west-coast, peninsular and central India will increase many folds starting from September 1st week.
Special VS-TS rainfall alert for core-Chennai:
During this period Core-Chennai may witness violent VS-TS (in the order of august 4th, 2015 strength) more than once starting from September 1st week onwards. Good quantum of rainfall might be recorded at many places over Chennai.
What happened to August end rains forecasted by the same models and given approval by Partha, PJ and yourself?
that BOB-LPA weakened without significant attaining in strength. Moreover that LPA doesn’t exhibited typical monsoonal LPA’s SW-tilt, which has the ability to ignite good VS-TS along its SW-periphery including strengthening of off-shore trough along west-coast. so rainfall chances over Chennai diminished unexpectedly.
But very good VS-TS days (more than a single day) are ahead for Core-Chennai starting from September 1st week.
But that could weaken too right like last one?
this time no chance of weakening (whether monsoonal LPA forms over BOB/over land) as already good convection around OTCZ developed by these waves unlike last 2 times. Moreover very nice MISO-cell get ignited along ITCZ and will enter BOB without any big hurdle. Most importantly west-pacific is inactive.
in simple words we can assume this scenario as SWM-onset type phenomenon that takes place along Kerala & KTK coasts, which will trigger a monsoonal LPA along SWM-axis (perfect example for this type is June 3rd week wide-spread RF event that occurred in 2015, but might happen in less intensity to that).
Dr.rsr I was expecting this from you..hope good luck continues
Very good rain expected for north coastal TN during the 1st week of Sept.
what a chaos aug captain think september batting is too strong for his bowlers to handle
On a serious note, we really need good rains this Sept else it would be real chaotic situation for us
slightly better conditions than yesterday. can expect few showers today
Just 1 day to go for September.
Good morning all..today temperature 2-3 c above normal over andhra pradesh and tamilnadu states
whats your team score?
less than 24hrs to go
Damn clear sky here. Going to be super hot.
What a episode on nat Geo HD last night…earth from space, almost covered entire global mechanism
wen it is getting telecasted again?
Blog is very silent this weekend. Looks like all are busy or bored with the weather.
chelsea?
you might be sad
Ha ha how old r u?
Lol
lol
101?
101 – 80=
21. U r a young boy. U need to learn to face the dissapointment in sports. When u were 4 years old I was a hard core fan of F1. Will never miss a race. Don’t even watch it anymore
but you said chelsea will be difficult to beat because they added one of thr best player. What happen yesterday that too against CRY in your home ground
Maybe I should join our competitors to have some fun.
Cherrapunji 20 cm today.
Dooars in West Bengal battered for 4th day.
Hasimara – 216 mm
Gazabolda – 175 mm
Neora – 142 mm
Nagrakata – 128 mm
Very good warm morning to all, will Aug end up in dry mode or wet mode
Dry mode
Lol
Yesterday Night lot of pop-up formed. But did not bring any major rain
Kancheepuram – 6
Ellapuram – 3
Thiruporur – 2
Pallipattu – 2
Ennore – 1
Puzhal – 1
Minjur – 1
Valasaravakkam recorded 0.8mm
Ishant Sharma is bending his back…..He might add one or two more wickets to his kitty.
He has already dismissed tharanga
Then how will ashwin take 5?
Lol… Pacers are good
If he adds one more wicket. there is 7 more wickets left. And there is 2nd innings too.
Today we have to get 64 mm to reach Normal august…..
Yes poor nunga… But our areas got above normal
Yes spot on
Even meena has got some decent rainfall this month
Yes meena got normal rains..I do no y nunga is Missing
Jupi…imd seasonal forecast released???
Ehsan after partying very hard for full night is not steady and failure of August has got to him.
Atleast Jon, Sel everyone expects blasting start to September. As usual Ehsan wants dry weather to continue so that he can enjoy them.
Jupie was brave and smart is removing himself from August Team.
Jupi decision waz not brave he shouldnt ve lft at this time after he agreed for contest n captaincy.anyway not goin into tat
dont u feel 1st 10 days of september will beat the August score.
It looks good jst based on models again same dint happen for aug. Will see
Rightly said, even Aug is expected to be in excess but twin typhoons spoiled our chances
Kadaisila paaru….rogue storms going to flood Sister city…namakku dimikki than…
This is the poorest august in last 4 years I think for nunga, hope sep brings some magic as all big guns in sep team
This is the poorest August since 2005.
Omg
Yes ameen blasting heat sep is ahead
72 mm in 1st week as per GFS (Remember Quantum is an indication of rainfall occurence and dont interpret it real terms)
Seems like there is no indication of the day temperature coming down – although we are into september now. Sky looks very clear from the webcam.
October 2 2009
Afternoon 1 pm
Location Kurnool
Situation : Heavy floods
Towers Starts building.
NOAA GFS 96 mm in 1st 9 days.
Kea’s age is 38 !!! 🙂
is kea running some biz.
Meteoblue Multi-model meteogram shows increased probaility of occurence and predicts 70 mm
CFS 1st week latest
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015082918/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_ind_1.png
Unnoda age and standard secret Kea kitta sollava? 😛
Ehsan see Ishant Picks another wicket. I said SL will struggle in this wicket. Even ur SA or Australia would struggled in this Green Swinging Top. To be honest India batted very well.
Sri Lanka may be bowled out below 112
or even less.
Why 112? Any numerology?
Follow on
Could be
Infact ehsan applauds misra than pujara
Unmaya sonniya? 😀
Bijili principal ku oru fon podu partner.. :p
Roads were wet today morning..did it rain in ur area?
Omg then everywhere flooded.. Has the administration been alerted and upto it??
Ameen has to do
Nearly another wicket. Dropped.
What you said
Ama..actress age ketutom..secret ushhh..am 😀
Lol…
Model ensemble expects the next 2 – 3 days to remain quite hotter in Chennai expecting a temp. anomaly of +2 and +2.5 C
..paving way for electric monster in Sep first week to overhaul Aug target…
Yeah, September 3rd to 6th may see some decent rainfall activity as per model outlooks …papom …
u mean…papom..thopom… 😀
marappom mannippom …:D 😀
Spot on ups
UPS is Novak
Ohh I see
Another wkt..47/5
Ok right vidu….
Cumulus clouds started to towering up all around city..something in store for us…
Spot-on Foreca also showing towers
U r also joining with that bigili
Sollunga Ameen ………
What ameen.in no time it ll decrease rapidly too.. Don’t in dream always
UAC near Nellore on 6th September. IMD GFS expects good rains for Chennai from this UAC.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_500wind.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
We guys don’t expect rains when uac near chennai itself… U r saying nellore which is 130 km away from chennai
Hope chennai ll get 15 mm till sep 10
lol. save ur comment.
Cloud free distinct zone in between two TCZ s …..Both TCZ s may boil up in response to diurnal heating ,,,OTCZ may explode later towards evening ……..
Yes. GFS, ECMWF, JMA, IMD GFS all of them expecting good rains for Chennai in coming weeks. And as per JMA this wet spell for Chennai will extend till September end.
Atchu, this may change but see the trough dipping from west Bengal see the wind barb and see the rains following all along the coast.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/144hgfs_700wind.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
Pj…even from last lpa trough dipping. From odhisha to tamilnadu.. But nothing we got
Everyday is not sunday
Ok…let us see..
After seen ur post only.. I’m posting this
Why does everyone associate the success/failure of one month’s rainfall with Nungambakkam alone ? Nungambakkam was excess and the wettest IMD station in July in Chennai region. But it was a failure for entire TN.
August has been normal for TN on whole and good for South Chennai and very good for northern suburbs for Chennai as well. Just because Nunga missed out doesn’t mean it was a failure..
Good afternoon, good hot day today, and a good foundation set for Sep first week rains.
August tailender’s pathetic performance.
Very poor performance… lol
OMG.. ECMWF latest update indicates a UAC passing through GOM and adjoining S TN near Kanyakumari.. Thankfully it’s forecast to only be well marked at the 500 hPa level, meaning it will not influence thunderstorm movement over N TN that much.
Get ready for “September Saravedi” from September 2nd.
but IMD GFS picking up a UAC at 700hpa level.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_700wind.htm
ECMWF is taking the UAC to WB/Odisha
This is the UAC I’m referring to, check near SL
If you want to measure RR then Davis is your only choice Ameen
200 mm is definitely not possible unless a once in a decade phenomenon occurs..
But it will exceed your budget by a lot.
https://www.scientificsales.com/Davis-6250-Vantage-Vue-Wireless-Weather-Station-p/6250.htm
http://www.amazon.in/gp/aw/d/B00O8TCPMK/ref=pd_aw_sbs_201_1?ie=UTF8&refRID=1SQVKFE0Q6QKMW7D8PTS
September August difference will be normally will be 20 or 30 mm, mostly very close.
Hope it rain this evening, look like conditions are favourable.
It seems only from Wednesday
Y u need rr u can guess it anyway also rf amount is the requirement.
GFS expects 700 hPa vortex to move through Machili n neighbouring areas.. This is the age old GFS problem I’ve been talking about!!
UAC over N.I. Karnataka
GFS 3rd night
Oh just miss 😦
GFS 5th Night
Oct, Nov or Dec?
Are u a weather blogger. Does GFS have such a long run. So pathetic ur asking this question.
Lol
😀 take a break why getting bashed daily.. We will com bak strong after 1st week.. Models favour them for first week let them bask in tat glory…
Paavam Keaya thitaadha partner… 😀
I m not others r bullying him 😦
According to the current situation and conditions, here is the general model conditions. This is NOT my personal view, just what the models indicate! I stick to my word that intense storms start on Sept 2nd and continue for a few days.
Model consensus will change slightly, but it is good that all models are agreeing to these events.
September 2nd – Increase in rainfall with isolated/scattered thunderstorms returning to TN, especially C TN and S TN
September 3rd – Heavy thunderstorms all across Tamil Nadu. Intense storms to sweep across N TN including coastal area in the night.
September 4th – Widespread storms across TN yet again, this time parts of SI Karnataka expected to receive heavy rains. Heavy storms in the night for many areas C TN and parts of N, S TN
September 5th – Severe thunderstorms all across TN, SI KTK and Rayalaseema. VERY VERY HEAVY storms expected for N TN and S AP in the night.
September 6th – Storms to continue
So wet week ahead for south India.
Thunderstorms developing in SL. Isolated in south interior TN.
ECMWF 3rd Night
ECMWF 5th Night
PJ it looks very encouraging! Hopefully nunga can get something… Otherwise we can quit this blog until NEM! 😦
So there is consenus on 3rd and 5th Night rains with GFS and ECMWF
TN daily rainfall- Nil
And for the first time in last 3 months, Agumbe records nil rainfall in 29th imd report.
Click to access page2.pdf
Agumbe had a very poor SWM.
Guess it is a rare happening
Yes only in case of strong elnino I hope
Portland is missing all the heavy rains!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/portland-or/97225/weather-radar/40918_pc
maybe because of u. Nunga always misses rains because of Ehsan
Lol
We have the power to control nature!
Why models too building up this much for September??? Enga poi mudiyapothu
ur turn over atchu….its our turn.
Lol..still 20 hours there
Not too far away so you can expect good things to happen
Models pozhappae build upulathaan odudhu!
IMD
September 4th!
IMD gfs
On 5th
And on 6th
Going to Alampur shaktipeet..beside Tungabhadra….will post the images of sangameshwara sangamam
NE India has been battered.
yes whenever axis moves to foot hills, NE will benefit a lot.
For Gaje
Toppers in Karnataka this SWM
1.Hulikal, Shimoga – 4898
2. Mastikatte, Shimoga – 4681
3. Yadur, Shimoga – 4416
4.Agumbe, Shimoga – 4414
5.Talacauvery, Kodagu – 4219
6.Mani Dam, Shimoga – 4173
7.Kerekatte, Chikmagalur – 4000
Seems no rainy season for these places this year.
All the best for Agumbe Thirthalli Lakkavalli for 2016 to 2017 sw monsoon
Annae, thanks. I knew, Lot of work done behind this post. Only you possible for this task.
Easywork not many stations crosses 4000 mm. Cogar and some other stations have got 3500 mm+
This is easily the worst i have seen since i started compiling
konkan too should be reporting similar deficit this year…hope sept compensates for them
All heavyweights in western ghats are missing almost 2000mm till now. This will indirectly spoil our saiganga project inflow
PJ wat abt Valparai and Chinnakallar total of this SWM?
will be less than 2500 mm
OMG very bad 😦
Almost min 300cm deficit for all 😦
yes. Jon
So avg 700cm?
Hulikal is 807 cm
Agumba 762 others like hulikal keeri masti r higher than agumba
Okay…
Keerikate is 7150 mm. Hulikal, Mastikate are wetter than Agumbe
Madikeri?
Madikeri average is around 3300 mm
Oh no..but one known guy gave over built up
Adhukuthan enkitta vaangunu sonnen
http://www.oceanwatersport.com/webcam/LiveImage.jpg?time=1435810903077
apart from reading RR , what r the salient features of coco RG? , what makes it one of the best,apt for regions like chennai ?
Accurate readings, portable, washable..rust-resistant..once the rain stops, u can take the readings and use it to feed the rain water for birds and squirrels.
multi use feature? how it can serve us during off season?
We can manually pour water so that animals can drink
U can also rent it for music troops…
Thatti paathen kottangachi….
Rain’a pudichen CoCo vechi…
lol.. oh fine!! then rain lovers can also turn into rock band troops
Onnu rain bandu..illana music bandu…
Is it the latest ??
Refresh to see the latest image
I almost forgot this..itha potta neram swm nasama pochi..
I havn’t seen rain here even once
Maldives ?
Partner , feel the cam time needs a reset ….it shows 14:07:08 …ahead of real time ..
they differ from us
Maldives rite ?
yeah..more like pakistan timing ..20 mins ahead than us
India is 30 minutes ahead of Maldives
1:47 PM Sunday, in Maldives is
2:17 PM Sunday, in India
It is not even 2 pm there
oh is it?
How come , we must be ahead of them la ?
Sorry for off posting …
Guess we are heading on the wrong way ….
Not to blame the Teachers alone ……..
But serious problem
Samasthipur , Bihar ………
https://fbcdn-video-g-a.akamaihd.net/hvideo-ak-xfa1/v/t42.1790-2/11093528_816210148470507_2113273192_n.mp4?efg=eyJxZSI6InZpZGVvX3ByZWZlcnJlZF90YWdzXzIwMTUwMTIxLHRoZV9sYXVuY2hlZCIsInJsciI6NDE3LCJybGEiOjEzNjd9&rl=417&vabr=232&oh=56e0fd874ed1db53a5003ed3244e68f4&oe=55E2DA66&__gda__=1440929088_16cbb96e40577fd3c70ebe07789f5762
Regarding?
See the video Jeet …
Yes typical one
Get ready for September Attack !!!
http://magicseaweed.com/Northern-Indian-Ocean-Surf-Chart/43/?imageScale=pressure&chartType=PRATE#?chartType=PRATE&_suid=144092223814406899920591326152
It has turned out to be a nightmare weekend for us especially captains n ambassadors stating with jupi withdrawal, no rains, off field too cricket football tennis :0 expecting reversal in luck soon
Roads were wet today morning in Adam
Passing shower 2mm in meena
Especially for your Ambassador. Feel sorry for him. Convey my condolence message to him
So far cherrapunji this year
1007 cm
Mawsynram could have recorded more than 400mm than Cherrapunji which is 12km away from Cherra
Mawsynram is otherside of cherrapunji in that hill.
Chennai AP recorded 2 mm yesterday.
Reason for Super duper rains in north east
The western end of monsoon trough runs close to the foothills of Himalayas and eastern end passes through Gorakhpur, Bhagalpur, Goalpara and thence eastwards to Nagaland – IMD
Whenever, the monsoon axis extends to NE, its break for entire India. Except NE
Cherrapunji and Mawsynram has a higher probability of Crossing 400mm this week
and gfs put 60%probality for chennai to get 5cm in next 1 week
Popups formed near Arani
Cloud formation at Kottivakkam now. Who knows what is in store today!
Nearing sunset , madurantakam lake , from gst road…
Yesterday evening…
Understood. You were travelling on your birthday. Parked your car near the lake during the sunset for that romantic evening.
romantic evening ?
With?
You missed a lot Becoz of your agumbe trip absence.
I knew….lots of cracking Info’s would’ve cracked
Haha…:D
Thappu kanukku…
As ECMWF Shows rains on 3rd night so does foreca increasing height of the towers
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
District wise wettest places of AP and Telangana
Annual rain normal….
Lammasingi (visakhapatnam)- 2000 mm to 2400 mm
Araku paderu (visakhapatnam) – 1700 mm
Markapuram_ srisailam (kurnool) – 1200 to 1400 mm
kollapur (mahaboobnagar) – 1100 mm
pocharam (Hyderabad) – 1130 mm
Bhainsa (Adilabad) – 1300 to 1500 mm
Eturunagaram (warangal) – 1100 mm
These are normal stats….
2015 pocharam Hyd rain is just 450mm till now
I’m sure there would coastal places in ap which would also have 1000 mm annual rainfalls
Only parts of north ap
Still Madurai & Trichy is under boiling wave: 38.6c & 38.3 ( yesterday).. chennai is not so behind: 36.7c..but today it may touch above 37c as per imd..
For chennai next 2 days should be slightly above normal…..
yes, well deserved for a strong electric TS to attack chennai city..
Then why no electric ts for trichy and madurai… Both are deficient in august… Trichy worst
Moisture & a conv should also be there..if both are there, heat will boost those TS to a strong ones..
Pointu…. By only heat we can’t do anything…. With 31-32 chennai got super duper ts also…
Suns lighting creates 40,000 thunder clouds in each day around the world so heat is the prime mechanism
sun is not only the prime mechanism, its a part of a TS ..Only with sun TS won’t form , with the help of moisture only clouds will form and rain ..
yes that depends on moisture levels
may be it falls more under rain shadow region compared to north-t.n & chennai. storms forms more in 13 N line
Then also u can’t pull heat here….
see this
Without heat/sun there is no weather factor
No swm flow
any relation between extended heat sessions & CAPE values?
CAPE is an available energy form, that can vary in magnitude and can be imparted by heat also..but it remains just available , but needs other triggers too
hmm…ok . if moisture is available at all levels and less CAPE, will it rain during SWM?
**strong T.S possible with out good CAPE ?
Yeah possible
ok
Today is the highest temperature this august I think
Imd – 36.9
Kea – 37.1
Best hot day.. Jeet would be happy. 🙂
Why me? With hear now you can enjoy electric ts in near future with accumulated heat triggers strong ts
strong t.s seen close to the stadium…if post tea session gets washed out, then match will end draw
Short rift in between kuduremukh range and floating low clouds over the same area on march 15th 2014
Blog in sleep mode, by the way small pops formed towards west of chennai
WAP in active mood
Nem. Onset
2012- Oct 19
2013- Oct 21
2014- Oct 17
Hope this year it should be oct 15
Ishant took 5, still 1 needed for SL all out..
Gaje today Agumbe 34 mm