Temperature to remain high as dry days set to continue in Tamil Nadu

The western end of monsoon axis runs along the foothills of Himalayas and the eastern end passes through North East India. This will result in heavy spells in the entire North East India with extreme rainfall of over 250 mm expected in Meghalaya. In the last 24 hrs. RKM Cherrapunji and Nongstain in Meghalaya have registered 259 and 240 mm rainfall respectively. The Dooars in West Bengal has also been getting heavy rains with Hasimara recording 216 mm rainfall. Floods in Assam can worsen if the rains prolong for a long time.

A trough, which persists from east Bihar to south Odisha, in conjunction with the Upper Air Circulation (UAC) will continue to give rains to West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh. With the monsoon axis shifting to North East, rest of the country will mostly see subdued rainfall. Temperature in Tamil Nadu will continue to remain above normal with less chance of rains.
02. INSAT
Chennai – Hot days to continue with temperature peaking around 37C.No chance of rains.

Coimbatore – Hot day as per Coimbatore standards as temperature rise to 34C with no chance of any showers.

Madurai – A hot and blazing day on cards and mercury could test 39 C. Chances of rain remains nil.

808 thoughts on “Temperature to remain high as dry days set to continue in Tamil Nadu

  1. Gud mrning bloggers from yesterday sudden downpour my area would hve recived atleast 15-18 mm.hope it gets today also.;)

  2. LOL. Our competitors missed last night intense storms. No mention about it. Guess they were bored doing nothing much over the weekend.

  3. PJ, Its nothing surprise about yesterday’s rains based on trough extension till TN from CC stayed along SWM-axis that too with MJO at close to phase 2. Previously August 4th rains also happened due to same type phenomenon from Komen’s CC (aided by properly oriented WP-typhoon’s pulling from near by Philippines). Chennai received so many times in previous years also and will happen in future too.

    Same type intense rains over core-Chennai will again happen on September 3rd late night onwards.

  4. Flash…high intensity electric VS-TS (hybrid) for Core Chennai on September 3rd night (late night):
    A very high intensity electric VS-TS (hybrid) may occur at many places over core Chennai on September 3rd night (most probably from late night onwards). In most places RF will cross 50 mm within short time & with 1 or 2 places to receive RF close to 100 mm mark. This electric TS can be more intense than august 30th and close to August 4th TSs that occurred at core Chennai.

    Height of confidence based on:
    MJO’s close proximity at phase 1or 2 with ER at phase 2(both by GFS & ECMWF) with perfect orientation of trough line extension from CC around Orissa/WB/Jharkhand till TN with abundant moisture available at 700 hpa level on September 3rd.

    • I saved the above comment in technical stuff, which further indicates the confidence of the RF incident to become reality on September 3rd πŸ™‚

    • I request Kea to make the above comment as featured (any time) in order to avoid confusion about the forecast if it turns reality on September 3rd. Our friends are allowed to daunt me if the above forecast turns -ve πŸ™‚

  5. Very good rains for 80mins around midnight. Intensity was very high and there is fluctuations in intensity. Will post RG figures later.

  6. Good morning, No rains here yesterday night, but expecting TS Today here for S chennai and these isolated showers will continue for a few days.

  7. GFS predicts 70 mm on 3rd night. This is the highest GFS shown since the dreaded day when Ehsan sent alert of heavy rains in FB earlier this year.

  8. Meena just 1 mm. Lol. Yesterday night was perfect day to track the movement of storms, flanking etc. Many missed it.

  9. Rajesh, one difference the north-south trough has moved east and up too. Today the same pattern of trough dipping is seen. Lets see. I feel we will miss it.

  10. Rao, i have simple reason and one line i will say on September 3rd night / 4th early morning rains.

    Monsoon axis dipping to Chennai.

  11. Kea: “Chennai – Hot days to continue with temperature peaking around 37C.No chance of rains.”
    looks Kea prepared to bowl well for august πŸ™‚

  12. Still Nino 3.4 SSTA is still in ncreasing mode relatively when compared to Nino 1+2 SSTA. But good thing is that Nino 1 SSTA started warming again.

  13. Folks, as most of us feeling sad when it doesn’t rain before evening, few comments also talked low steering wind’s etc, but we saw fairly decent spell late night. That’s the power of nature. Chennai rocks.

  14. Omg…yesterday storm was very thrilling and massive… After that small storms, in no time that vellore storms converged and intensified… Most of them think that is for south chennai.. But pj came and told to check ppv. It was amazing to check storm direction towards radar..pj was confident that storm for central and north chennai where all expected for south chennai including me.. Finally storm went for pj route as per ppv..it was very interesting yesterday in storm movement…
    Anna nagar got some 55 mm ( 40 mm in 30 minutes)
    Unfortunately storm missed south chennai.. My area recorded only 12 mm

  15. KEA, ur station is not updating in weather underground. I use the wunder station app for ios. Pls check

  16. Rao

    Yes.. It will happen, some isolated places can also register above 100mm… Wide spread rain expected but intensity may be at isolated places….

    Advance congrats for ur predictions

  17. India is finally ready with its own indigenous model to predict long range and seasonal rainfall. In the next six months, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, is all set to operationalise a dynamic numerical climate model it has developed to forecast extended-range rainfall for 15-20 days, after results from the experimental stage were found to be reliable.
    β€œFor the first time, we have indigenously developed a prediction system that was not available in India. The tests have been done, the performance of the experimental model was found to be good and can be operationalised. We can now forecast rain every five days for 15-20 days, especially for the agriculture sector, which is the mainstay of the economy,” M Rajeevan, director, IITM told HT.
    Under the Indo-US joint collaboration, scientists at IITM, tasked with improving long-range and seasonal scale forecasts (16 days to a season), used the National Centers for Environmental Predictions-Climate Forecast System (NCEP-CFSv2) model for monsoon prediction.
    β€œWe are halfway to the monsoon mission. The model in the next phase will incorporate hydrological forecasting that will help in decisions relating to management of dam water, how much water can be released or whether the water can be used to generate hydropower,” said Suryachandra Rao, senior scientist, IITM.
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai/coming-soon-an-indian-model-to-predict-rainfall/article1-1385892.aspx

  18. As I said last week, we got rain last night, unfortunate that my area got some drizzles.
    Yesterday Meena got 1.7 MM, as per Metsite Nunga got 24.1 MM. As per IMD reading 29MM.

    As per my forecast we got some rain from 27th to 30th so far. Henceforth whatever rainfall we get will go into September account as per IMD readings.

    I am also surprised to see the news like ER Wave activity, I don’t think such an activity here, the following link not showing the same, it shows the ER induced negative olr effective above 15N latitude only.

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/rains_likely_to_decrease_over_tn/#comment-2200270200

  19. One unique fact is our either part of city continuously enjoying rains on every Sundays from last month, so Sunday = sun Lord as per Hindu methodology, so sun = heat factor strongly persists, moreover last 2 days was a scorcher for chennai so accumulated heat paved way for ts…

      • sel,

        When there is a dip in trough that time we will see that Rossby influence, when there is no influence of trough dipping then how we say that the TS has bought by ER.

        Yesterday morning around 10.30 AM i saw the clouds coming from West to East, the trough is perfectly leveled in its movement. Hence ER wave influence not available.

      • trough dip happens almost daily during swm.. when the land gets heated ,we can see the trough dipping south after 2.30,will get clearly marked after 5.30pm.. we cant say the winds would b from particular direction during ER wave..lot of micro& macro systems alter the winds ,amidst all tis ER wave moves

      • i am not saying particular direction, it is an example of it, when the trough dips how can it change wind direction totally opposite, when there is westerly winds, if trough dips either it should change to SW or NW, but the westerly will remain westerly, it may be diagonal but not in opposite direction completely.

        also when i see 700 hpa level, there is not abnormal dip, it is perfectly from West to East. 500 HPA totally opposite.

  20. Missed the late night TS’s yesterday. Eventhough Saligramam receorded very less rainfall,happy that Anna nagar and North chennai got pounded.. Whoever predecited this yesterday ,Hats off to you..

  21. ER wave effective above 15N latitude only.

    The TS we got due to heat factor, not due to ER wave, there is no change wind anomaly in the past 2 days and mid level. also 500 HPA is from SE to NW, during ER wave the wind direction must be from NW to SE..

  22. @parthasri – Neenga oru thadava sonna 100 thadava sonna mathiri….looks like duplicate comments from you

  23. Almost nothing here. Paah looks like North Chennai areas got battered last night. With this, North Chennai would’ve bridged the gap with South. Very happy with this.. now Chennai’s average would be between 150 and 200 mm

  24. @Kea – When almost everyone is predicting the September 1st week will be wet (even news came in TOI today), why the heading ‘dry days to continue’ ..

  25. There are no 2 vortices found in North and Southern Hemisphere, this is another reason for saying ER wave effect not available between 15N and 15S. The heat based synoptic conditions was involved in early morning rain.

    1. I have enclosed the past vortices of October 2002, that time we had ER wave effect, that is first pic.

    2. The second of today early morning, does not show any vortex.

    3. The third one of today’s tropical and subtropical interactions map, which shows that there is no interaction between 30N latitude and below than that over India, the same has been shown with orange line in West Pacific, since ER wave impacting those region with suppressed wave.

    4. The fourth image shows the latest status of ER wave shows cold and warm front over that region.

    5. The fifth image show the vortex in WP both in North and South hemisphere.

  26. t.s expected again in srilanka. 3rd session will be washed out mostly. kohli wont declare below lead of 350. interesting session ahead. so it will be a draw or indian win

  27. Flash News,

    IOD value increased to 0.57 from 0.41.

    Positive IOD emerged. This is why we have huge HPA in Bay of Bengal.

    Easterly wind anomaly over Equatorial Indian Ocean, see the difference of 850 HPA wind last week and now, huge diversion towards West Indian Ocean, running to extreme west arabian sea and coming back to south india now. I have enclosed both the pictures of last week and now the wind direction changes. This is another reason for me to say no ER wave in action.

    IOD value:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/iod_1.txt

    850 HPA wind pattern last week:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2015082400&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=124

    850 hpa Wind pattern now:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2015083100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=124

  28. Selva,

    The main factor which is causing the HPA over bay is that, the CEW weakens due to Positive IOD. This has also bought down the ACC from Tibet to lower latitudes, this is the indication of wind pattern changed at lower levels of atmosphere.

    Instead of SW to NE towards Bay, the wind now travelling from West to East due to Easterly Anomaly over Eq IO, this is brining dry winds between 10N and 15N over bay.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/31/0000Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-244.80,12.78,470

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s