Rains likely to decrease over TN

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Monsoon has been active over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and North Eastern states and it will continue to remain active over those areas in the coming days. Heavy rainfall is expected to occur at most places of Jharkhand, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and North Eastern states. The Rainfall will gradually increase over coastal West Bengal and Odisha from Wednesday, as a new disturbance is expected to develop in the North Bay. There is also a weak disturbance to the south of Srilanka and its adjoining areas which was responsible for the thunderstorm activity over TN for the past few days. The Conditions are not favorable for any further development of this disturbance and so it will remain as a weak feature and move westwards giving rains to South & West TN (including localized heavy spells over Nilgiris and Coimbatore) district and Kerala.

An area of High Pressure will dominate the events in TN by middle of this week. This system will suppress the development of thunderclouds, leading to decrease in rainfall activity over most parts of TN.
02. INSAT
Chennai will see max temperature moving closer to 35C.Skies will be partly cloudy with a chance of sporadic showers during evening/night.

Coimbatore will observe max temperature between 32-33C with a chance of thunder showers during evening/night.

Madurai will witness cloudy skies with max temperature touching 34-35C.Thunderstorms are likely to develop during later part of the day.

966 thoughts on “Rains likely to decrease over TN”

  5. As per NET, Due to Southerly Winds fast Moving low level clouds expected to be around in another one hour

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  9. Good morning..Don’t blame God for not showering you with gifts. He gives you the gift of a new day with every single morning.

    Chennai city may have trace to light rain and no significant change for another couple of days.

    Some parts of North interior and western interior districts including Erode, Salem, Dharmapuri , Tirupur will have moderate rain today .

    Reply

    • Winds from SE has dry air merged with outer band of ACC over BOB. Thats the Reason for No Rains today Morning and there isn’t proper flow of SE winds at lower levels. Mid levels from SE and Lower Level winds from South

      Reply

  14. Interior Tamilnadu will get Good Rains Today Coastal Tamilnadu especially North will have Dry Weather with some Cloudiness Present in the Atmosphere

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  15. Flash…fresh MISO alert (by next week or so..)….as MJO will be entering at phases 3 (may travel towards 4&5) by next week onwards. So exactly fresh MISO will be initiated to ignite much needed SWM-LPA/depression over WC/NW-BOB.

    This LPA/depression will travel along central India to pound central, peninsular and west-central and east-central India will record much needed heavy rains. This rain-wave will be comparable with June 3rd week rainfall scenario.

    Mumbai and suburbs & Konkan and Goa will get exceptionally heavy rains during this period.

    Reply

  20. Tat 75-77E longitude may see good action.. Madurai,theni,dindugal,tiruchi,karur,salem and districts bordering kerala state hav good chance for ts activity…one place among theni,madurai,dindugal &kodai may see historic rains

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  23. Looks like it’s going to be a hot day today, but many are expecting it to be a pleasant day today. Let’s see..

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  30. Selva,

    That ACC over Andaman has formed due to fill the gap between 2 CC.

    First CC in South of Lanka and the Second one in West Pacific, the strong system. These 2 CC’s has created a space in South China Sea to West Central and Adjoining South West Bay of Bengal. As we know if there is space in atmosphere then it will be occupied by ACC.

    See the link below of yesterday night. From WP to Bay.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/17/1500Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-259.46,12.18,1175

    Reply

      • Yes, this also i mentioned in mail which i sent to Ehsan on 11th.

        Why did I say that STN will be mostly benefitted from 16th onwards. Whatever the rainfall the NTN, SAP and SI KTK have got was due to this suppressed ER Wave and ACC created ridge at mid level upto Coastal TN and South Coastal AP. The dry air was staying upto coastal area and interior got moist air, this has bought them TS.

    • partha,it isn’t necessary for the inactive region of the atmosphere to get occupied by the hpa.. The wave which we are talking about is naturally aligned such tat a low gets followed by a high pressure area..this pressure alignment varies with different waves

      Reply

  37. SWM rains are mostly predictable by models.. but when it comes to NE monsoon. They fail a lot. đŸ™‚

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  40. According to preliminary data from NASA along with information from the Japan Meteorological Administration, July 2015 was the warmest month on record since instrument temperature records began in the late 1800s.
    Research using other data, such as tree rings, ice cores and coral formations in the ocean, have shown that the Earth is now the warmest it has been since at least 4,000 years ago.
    According to NASA’s data, which is subject to refinement in coming weeks and months as more is analyzed, July 2015’s average temperature nudged past July 2011 by 0.02 degrees Celsius, or .36 degrees Fahrenheit.
    Every month this year has ranked in the top four warmest months, according to NASA’s data.


    http://mashable.com/2015/08/17/july-hottest-month-on-earth/

    Reply

  44. This Day In Weather History

    Mississippi Coast Virginia (1969)
    Hurricane Camille blasts onshore just west of Pass Christian with a 24-foot storm surge. Wind gusts peaked at 175 mph in Gulfport, MS. 256 lives were claimed, and $1.3 billion in damage done. Camille weakened and proceeded to move into Virginia, dumping 2 feet of rain and causing terrible flooding. 113 of the 256 lives lost were due to the Virginia flash floods.

    Haiti (1929)
    Haiti leveled by hurricane along with an earthquake and tidal waves.

    Mankato, MN (1946)
    27 ton road grader thrown 100 feet by F4 tornado (wind 250 mph).

    Reply

  45. POAMA latest long range outlook is out and now they’re expecting strong el nino in coming months similar to 1957 event( peak around +2.2). Their earlier forecast was showing super el nino similar to 1997 event( peak around +2.5). Also they expect moderate to strong positive IOD during NEM. Their earlier forecast was showing neutral IOD during NEM.

    JAMSTEC was the first model which showed 1957 like elnino in coming months and now POAMA agrees with it.

    Going by the above forecast, Chennai will get good rains from regular easterlies and we can expect less number of systems during NEM.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml

    Reply

  46. Moody’s Investors Service cut its forecast for India’s
    economic growth to around 7 per cent this fiscal year (2015-16) from
    7.5 per cent because of lower-than-expected rainfall in the ongoing
    monsoon season, the ratings agency said on Tuesday-ndtv

    Reply

  47. UAC is an useless system and not even drizzling. in fact it also impacts evening thundershowers. however today afternoon thundershowers will be back as we notice westerly winds picked up well.
    ss

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  51. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively steady over the past two weeks, at a value slightly more negative than two weeks ago. The 30-day SOI value to 16 August was −20.3.

    Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

    Reply

  54. Thunderstorms gave good rainfall yesterday in various places

    Medapalle – 100 mm
    Kotapadu – 91 mm
    yellanki – 85 mm
    chityakala – 85 mm
    Ravikamantham – 84 mm
    Palamaner – 81 mm
    Govindaravpeata – 80 mm
    Gumpulathirumalagiri – 80 mm
    Mallempallu – 80 mm

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  62. Flash…fresh MISO alert (by last week or so..)….as MJO will be entering at phases 3 (may travel towards 4&5) by last week onwards. So exactly fresh MISO will be initiated to ignite much needed SWM-LPA/depression over WC/NW-BOB.

    This LPA/depression will travel along central India to pound central, peninsular and west-central and east-central India will record much needed heavy rains. This rain-wave will be comparable with June 3rd week rainfall scenario.

    Mumbai and suburbs & Konkan and Goa will get exceptionally heavy rains during this period.

    Reply

  67. Current IOD and QBO values exactly matching 1918 iod and qbo values. Even current el nino showing similar trend to 1918 event.
    Chennai got excess rainfall during NEM in 1918. It got 1275mm during NEM.
    TN got normal NEM. It was around 486mm.

    Reply

  71. IOD values 1918
    1918 8 0.270121
    1918 9 0.434861
    1918 10 0.581363
    1918 11 0.497757
    1918 12 0.31195

    QBO values 1918
    showed stable values around +10 during NEM.

    As per forecast, IOD will be similar to 1918 values during coming NEM.
    QBO will show stable trend around +10 during coming NEM.

    Reply

  75. Last 5 days rainfall of cherrapunji

    18 August – 313 mm
    17 August – 162 mm
    16 August – 195 mm
    15 August – 191 mm
    14 August – 102 mm

    Total past 5 days rainfall – 963 mm
    Total Rainfall from january 1 till now – 8701 mm

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  76. perfect conditions for thunderstorm by late evening or night. typical august/september weather. the useless UAC shifted to west. towards arabian sea.

    ss

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  83. Tropical activity in the Pacific Ocean
    – Typhoon Atsani likely to intensify throughout the week as it heads northwest of Guam
    – Typhoon Goni to weaken slightly throughout the coming week

    Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains weak
    – No significant influence on tropical weather last week.
    – MJO likely to remain weak in the coming week.

    Mature El Niño in the tropical Pacific region
    – Latest weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is very high (+1.8 °C)
    – El Niño likely to warm further and persist into 2016

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  84. Cherrapunji monthly rain of 2015

    January – 17.7 mm
    February – 29.4 mm
    March – 33.4 mm
    April – 616.2 mm
    May – 1212.8 mm
    June – 4355.5 mm
    July – 1263.2 mm
    August – 1172.8 mm (Till August 18)

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  85. Partha, You only told that I had done lot of research on MJventrice link. Then how are you missing the good amplitude of MJO at phases 2&3 (even I am expecting it to enter phase 4). If this happens exactly June-2015 3rd week’s type systems (either at BOB & NE-Arabian) will take place. But by keeping in mind the southward shift in SWM-axis, Rainfall going to blast East-central, Central, peninisular, and west-central (Mumbai, Konkan & Goa). I am also aware of the fact that MJO won’t attain greater than 1 amplitude in strong elnino years. But some how elnino-2015 exhibiting different colours, by which elnino-2015 becoming a good piece for young researchers just like 1997-elnino. MJO-OLR: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html MJO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

    Reply

    • the foot note i gave on that day was, not to believe beyond 4 days.
      MJO playing lots of hide and seek this time of the year, during ELNINO it is tough to predict it.

      Also don’t just take the forecast from CPC for MJO.

      Reply

      • Which MJO-model will be good? Both ECMWF & GFS indicating MJO to enter at the interface of phase 2&3 or directly phase 3. At that time it looks there won’t be any ER-wave also at these phases. So stage clearly setting for MJO’s entry at Indian Ocean.

      • I never said it will not emerge into Phase 2. However i said we need to wait for 2 more days at least to get some clarity.

        I would still go with MJ Ventrice for sure. Short term forecast is the best method to track MJO.

      • Yes. But day by day MJO forecast becoming firm and interestingly MJO-amplitude increasing at IO in the forecasts. It’s really worth watching.

      • i am observing this for the past few days, but interestingly massive change in the forecast. It was initially pinpointing towards Phase 7, now taken to Phase 2, this is why i said need to wait for 2 more days.

        we have possibility of MJO this time

      • No Partha, both GFS & ECMWF are very firm for MJO to enter IO consistently for the past few days most of the time except 1 or 2 days (I am also watching regularly).

  86. @guest11k:disqus
    I accept your point…. only small change

    North TN will record / register above Normal Rainfall
    Central TN and South TN will record / register Excess Rainfall

    Reply

      • Oh.. it’s good. I already read your previous comment of excess NEM in 1918. What about BOB-cyclones season in 1918?

      • early oct system moved northeast as depression,weak tropical storm hav made landfall between MADRAS-PONDI around 9th/10th of nov.. another mid nov system formed near lanka and moved north before dissipating.. dec cyclonic system formed in s.bay and dissipated before making LF in w.bay

        Courtesy: Sel

      • So quite active but not strong. If the systems are dying near TN Coast, then they will dump heavy rains. Hope NEM-2015 be like that 1918 (instead of stronger systems).

  89. Rainiest days of cherrapunji with above 200 mm in 2015

    June 8 – 579 mm
    June 1 – 542 mm
    June 10 – 515 mm
    June 6 – 410 mm
    June 9 – 404 mm
    June 7 – 340 mm
    August 18 – 313 mm
    July 24 – 259 mm
    June 13 – 255 mm
    June 24 – 200 mm

    Can cherrapunji beat 24 hour rainfall record of 2014 atleast ??
    Cherrapunji 2014 record is 776 mm on july 7

    Reply

  91. Parrha..I think you are going in line with 2013 14..also relatively el nino years.. so cyclones may hit the same place right am I right with my gues

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    • I am not going in that way. Unconfirmed ELNINO and Firm ELNINO is totally different.

      SST differs, SST from zone to zone differs, Anomaly will vary, atmospheric conditions will vary. You cannot relate 2015 with 2014 for sure.

      Reply

  93. 2014 annual rainfall data for cherrapunjee Stands at 10235.4
    I hope 2015 rainfall may be higher than 13000 mm which is 20 percent excess
    Super performance of cherra in strong Elnino year
    Mawsyanarum might have received 20 percent
    more rain than cherra..
    proud to have these places in India
    This year mt waialeale performance is worst

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  99. Cherra aa….there no 46 degrees in summer…no hail storms also.no dum biriyani also.
    Hyderabad receiving rains so no plans to shift to cherra
    I love extreme temperatures in Hyderabad especially 46 degrees in summer and 6 degrees in winter

    Reply

  100. September Team,

    Strongest MJO likely by 18th September, this will last until month end.
    But don’t expect too much for Chennai from this MJO. Only ER wave can bring TS for Chennai

    This MJO will strengthen only in Phase 3, some parts of East India will get some rainfall activity.

    When this MJO enters Phase 4 or MTC after 26th, a system likely to form over North Andaman Sea and move towards North Ap or Odisha coast. This system will form by 30th September as a LOW and strengthen by 02nd October.

    Reply

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