Monsoon Rains shifts north closer to the Himalayas

The Monsoon rains remain confined to the north of core Monsoon region, in response to the northward movement of the seasonal Monsoon Trough. The axis of this trough is a little south and running almost parallel to the Himalayas. This shift along with a circulation close to Bihar will generate moist convective process resulting in heavy to very heavy rains in parts of Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar and Arunachal Pradesh. The upper air cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area will move North Westwards gradually and weaken simultaneously. Dry conditions to prevail across Tamil Nadu for a day or two as a westward moving mid tropospheric High Pressure area would suppress convective activities.

02. INSAT
Chennai will see a partly cloudy sky with temperature settling close to 34-35 C.

Coimbatore to remain cloudy with a maximum temperature of 31-32 C.

Madurai to be less hot with maximum temperature touching 34-35 C.

416 thoughts on “Monsoon Rains shifts north closer to the Himalayas

  1. The mid level is getting abundant moisture from the 20th, expect cloudy skies from Thursday evening.
    Chances of rain are getting high for Chennai from Thursday.

  2. Today the day is going to be a warm with crystal clear sky and Clouds asusual appear in the day time and wind pattern is going to change back to SW by tonight. TS expected in Interiors and Parts of Coastal Tamilnadu.
    Chennai will have Temperatures hovering around 35 and parts of interior Tamilnadu will see 36 – 37Β°C

  3. any chance for our neighboring states who are the direct beneficiaries of SWM to get normal by the end of Sep ?

    • Ready for lasy 19days but nothing so far everyday it is getting postponed hopefully this also doesn’t fail

      • If you waited for past 19th days, then I am sorry you were wrongly informed about the forecast

  4. Anyone remember this monster squall? Unfortunately it didn’t make it to land, it was moving toward Chennai and finally gave only scattered TS. Believe it or not this happened in early June last year

  5. *** Important Announcement for Sep Team ***

    Ameenu Bijli has requested me to relieve him from VC role since he has to concentrate more on his Studies. He has also suggested the name of RamiRao, his mentor and role model, to take over the VC position and assist Captain Susu Maddy. However Bijli would remain in the Sep team and contribute with his brutal batting.

    RamiRao..hope you would take up the VC role as Bijli wished. Let us know your willingness by today.

    Ungal,
    Dash
    (Kea Blog-Hunger Games)

  6. East is getting clearer and crystal blue. Speciality of Southerlies Cloud formation occuring along with Sun movement.
    Some TS expected to form in next one hour

  7. Yesterday Temp Readings

    TOP 3 STATIONS
    Karur Paramathi – 36.2
    Trichy – 35.3
    Madurai – 35.2

    CHENNAI
    Meenambakkam – 34.2
    Nungambakkam – 34.1

  8. IMPORTANT:
    Carl Schreck’s new CFS driven MJO and equatorial wave Hovmoller. It shows a 120 day history and 30 day forecast of 850 hPa zonal wind, the MJO, Equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and the low-frequency background/ENSO signal. It also identifies TC genesis during the last 120 days, which is an especially neat feature as it allows one to really visualize the role that the MJO and other modes of tropical variability play in TC activity.

    Now we can observe mjo, KW, ER wave within single frame. Save this link.

    http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/v2/

  9. @guest11k,

    The below mentioned link takes the base from HOV Mollers, Wheelor and Hendon model and CFS. These data are already provided by MJ Ventrice.

    However the new thing in this link is we could see the long range forecast for MJO, Kelvin and ER etc.

  10. DAILY STATUS OF
    KAILASH MASAROVAR
    YATRA

    2015
    1.Date: 18/08/2015
    (Morning)
    2.Weather Report : Clear
    3.Rain Report : Ok.
    4.Route Report
    : Road blocked at Kanchoti b/w Tawaghat and Narayan Shawami Asharm

  11. Not sure how Mdu ap misses heavy rains many times. Sunday was one of the best and widespread rains. But AP got only 2 cm.

  12. Never seen a cloud mass like this near meghalaya in satellite…
    Tomorrow’s rainfall figures of cherra and mawsyanrum may be highest till now in 2015

  13. In1997, Western pacific seen two super typhoon at same time ivan & joan..If Goni attains the super typhoon status..then after 1997, its 2015 – two super typhoons simultaneously..

  14. Vela, u asked me which 21st. It is August 21st. Hmm, Sila peruku kilipilla mathri sollanum pola.

  15. Two typhoons are chugging toward Southeast Asia, and though their final course isn’t set, one could skim Taiwan or the northern Philippines with super typhoon force by the end of the week.

    Both storms are gaining strength, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centerpredicts that the twins will reach super typhoon status β€” with winds in excess of 150 mph.

  16. Skymet:
    Tamil Nadu performed well and received normal rains in the drought year of 2014. With the El Nino threat looming large this year as well, the performance of Monsoon in the state has once again been normal.

    Till now, August 18, the state has received 153.2 mm of rainfall against the normal of 154.7 mm.

    Just like the previous year, even this season Tamil Nadu witnessed large variations in Monsoon rains. Southwest Monsoon arrives in Tamil Nadu during the initial phase of the Monsoon season. In the month of June the country received 16% surplus rainfall and the state received 36% more rainfall than the normal average.

    On August 16, Tamil Nadu received three times more rainfall than the average for the day. Accordingly to the rainfall data available with Skymet, the state recorded 10.7 mm of rain against the normal of 2.7 mm for the day. Rains continued the next day as well and the state witnessed five times more Monsoon rains than the normal average.

    Last two days of heavy rainfall brought down the rainfall deficiency to 1% and more rains are in the offing. All thanks to a cyclonic circulation over extreme southern parts of the Peninsula and adjoining Arabian Sea. A trough can be seen extending from this system across interiors of Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema. Scattered good rains are likely over this region including Kerala..

  17. Light rain possible tomorrow. Massive rainfall expected on 21st and 22nd or either one of the day as I said yesterday. The rain on these 2 days will give big numbers.

    Then next spell from 27th to 31st.

    Good end to August expected..

  18. Just seeing the QTY and Buildings of the models not going to help us. Just check the trough chart, if we go based on that we will come to know it is going to be more than what these charts are saying.

    Bloggers need to understand the strength and weakness of trough and vector winds. We are going to get massive figures before 24th.

  19. Wats goin on lots of confusion.. As per Aug vs sep contest rule cumulative datas of official imd nbk and mbk stands or not?? Adhukulle innoru contest? Who is confusing ere :O

  20. what is today’s wind pattern south east ?? tomorrow it has to shift north west for bigger convection to move towards coast.

    ss

  21. 20th, 21st, 22nd August 2015, Chennai will record / register light rains to heavy rains at isolated places of Chennai and Chennai
    Suburban.

    21st August looks good for wide spread rain over Chennai City and Suburban.

    Quantum of Rain will be around 50mm (inclusive of 3 days)

  22. Just to share an info, since bloggers are over enthu on NEM, this may not be the final forecast.

    NEM onset as per CFS is 17th October.

    A Low is forming on 16th in SE bay of bengal and moving faster towards TN coast and on 17th it get positioned in SW Bay. NEM rainfall begins.

    16th Oct

    17th Oct

  23. Guys dont get upset if any system miss us .then also we may have many system.;). But lets wait for some more days. Before that lets enjoy august 20 to august 24 drama.;)

  24. Guys.. I request you to not to give CFS or GFS models on NEM 2015 forecasted systems. Last 3 years rombavee pattachu..Models wil initially forecast them to hit NTN/SAP belt, finally they will go above 15N and screw up the NEM.. This NEM ,lets not follow the models..Only NET,SST,MJO ,SOI and IOD..

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