There is no significant weather feature in India except for the remnants of depression which now lies over Haryana and Punjab. A new disturbance is expected to form in the North Bay within the next 2-3 days which will bring the action back to West Bengal, Odisha and its nearby areas. It will also strengthen the offshore trough in the West coast. Rainfall activity is also set to increase quite significantly over north eastern states from tomorrow.
Dry weather will continue in most parts of TN with some thunderstorm activity over northern parts of the state.
Chennai will see a max temperature around 39C. Skies will be partly cloudy with a chance of isolated thunderstorm activity during evening/night. There is a high probability of Chennai’s temperature to be above average(>35C) for the whole month.
Coimbatore’s temperature likely to be 33-34C with some scattered showers.
Madurai will witness a very warm day with temperature lingering between 39-40C.
KeaWeather Archives 
Sudden thunders…red dot approaching my area as per radar
Are these coming from the sea?
The red dot near avadi is coming from north…
Yes clouds moving north to south
But the pattern has changed… It was north to south 2 hours back…now, nw to se I think..
Radar is interesting. Cola forecasting 17 mm for Wednesday
Yes Kea…
100% chance for rains in Chennai tonight.
So morning rains after long time??
No, night rains.
I think we can expect some passing showers from 2 red pop ups now
Tuesday night or Monday night?
Tuesday night, it’s already Tuesday there.
Any possible in chidambaram?
whats happening? popups at this time that too so close to chennai
Is there any chance to cover chennai
Not today. We will rain tomorrow
oh yes it is losing intensity
These are pop ups from last night still lingering around.
Rain expected in chennai @ anytime folks… Persons sleeping in mottamadi is in high alert
We will have better chance tomorrow
Yeah ok…
Pondy is getting some much needed showers!
OMG!
Raining here in Ambattur
Drizzling here
Huge storms in sea off Chennai coast should be cloudy for som time i guess
Little UAC rains here but stopped.
There should be good rains today or tomorrow.
Pounding rains in kochi edapally roads flooded
There was heavy rain in between Chengalpattu and Kanchipuram areas last night.
There was good rains for the last few days in areas surrounding Chengalpattu.
The great MSV passes away. very very sad news.
Hi
Sea bands over sea
.will it reach us?
It will rain today.
Heat or due to UAC?
UAC
Problem with these types of rains is, it releases all the latent heat into the atmosphere thus making living conditions unbearable after rain stops.
the humidity thats making things more uneasy.
Entire October is like that in Mumbai, very miserable heat.But nowadays weather patterns have altered a lot, it rains in Mumbai even in Nov while Chennai sometimes receives less than average.
Spot On!!!
GFS
UAC is Off Andaman Coast !!!
Will Chennai Get Anything? Is A Big Question?
Yes, rains are sure tonight.
Super
Today’s Forecast by Vela
Thanks for the UAC developing in 500hpa, it will keep the Temp around 35 to 37.
Light drizzles may record near North coastal TN… We are going to Enjoy tonight at Chennai… Light to Medium Rains
South AP will record very good wide spread rains…
Today the 23 day old trend will be broken. It’s unlikely temp will go beyond 38
tommorrow not even 35
I am not sure if we will cross 35 today either. It’s so cloudy currently
we will cross 36 today with ease.
Tomorrow it will be so cool than today.
Rains?????????????
yes
It’s so close, but it’s a too far to affect us. Don’t expect it to give us any rains. We have better chance tonight or tomorrow
It’s not close yet.
Today and tomorrow its closer to Chennai, so heavy rains guaranteed.
New Horizons to Fly by Pluto, Capture Much-anticipated Photos in Historic Mission.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/new_horizons_mission_pluto_charon_photos_historic_mission_july_14/50194019
Big bulb over north TN/South AP
So 100 mm?
Are you ready for this? I expect a drought for us if it happens.
A ‘mini ice age’ is coming in the next 15 years
http://www.sciencealert.com/a-mini-ice-age-is-coming-in-the-next-15-years
Pradeep yesterday pressure decreasing trend caused some change in weather….am I spot on?
Pressure was less for the last three four days.
yes, all ignored the bands of UAC.
So whets the uac forming close to andamans and is it traversing west?
its already formed.
Pressure is increasing now!
What are you predicting?
even that is what i am thinking now…the system is in here now the pressure is increasing so does that mean we wont get rains..i am confused…
The UAC doesn’t affect the surface pressure.
Ehsan today temp will increase as TS moves away. we will touch 38. Tomorrow its different
Ant colonies are active for the last two days and I suspected something even before the news of UAC. Today they are relocating their eggs so it looks confirmed heavy rains.
wow…its classical observation 🙂
Ant is active 365 days a year in my house
goes to say house should be kept clean…. lol
🙂 too much sweet for ramzan. ?
Forecasting styles in kea
Eshan Negative Post Forecast (NPF)
Krishna Pressure Forecast
Aman Ant forecast
Jupie Bat forecast
bhaskar Eesal Forecast
Someoneelse Dragon fly forecast
Mouli Cloud forecast (NET)
PJ Body and gut feeling Forecast (NBT)
PJ moisture at all levels Forecast (Never failed to this day)
Vela No idea
Anything else.
Krishna pressure forecast!
lol.
These are aids along with forecast models 🙂
Shiva nft
KNF
Naked feel technology
i am glad i am competing in this elite group….thanks PJ for including me
No…
Kea ‘s negative forecast
OMG…where is mine?
whats urs…MJO
My mother’s observation- on the days with high probability of rains, the leaves of trees seem to glitter and appear fluorescent. She says, innuku ilai ellam palapalanu iruku, mazhai varum. And, it has 70% success rate
What is imd saying?
Veppa salanthaal Tamizhagathil mazhai peyya vaaiyppu!
Lol
who cares. We are saying rains from tomorrow early morning.
then why this heading
what heading.
Dry Weather to continue in TN
most of the parts ll be dry…except chennai and some northern parts
The capping has been broken.. See the cloud heights
OMG Multiple vorticities forming.
That’s bad!
is it a problem?
maddy whats ur view tomorrow.
Vortex in a UAC seeing after a year. Today i will be more active in blog.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/07/15/0900Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-279.58,12.51,2048
u r forgetting me PJ 😦
PJ just saw ur earth null link….this uac is much closer …we can potentially good rains…by the way how do i identify the vortex
it will be in one level only and size will be small and will be within a trough or lpa or uac. Mostly lasts less than a day and fades away.
It will produce intense rains within the vortex.
Is vortex extending upto chennai?
how can it extend. its nearby. so we can expectrains.
Whats ur rao. I will update it.
Hope this UAC doesn’t turn out to be a bummer.
Last year June July rains are all were due to UAC.
Record breaking 2nd half July possible
in what sense?
1st half – heat
2nd half – rain
wow…its nicee 🙂
temp will remain in 38+ today, expect some rains late evening as UAC comes closer.. Damaka rains by tonight.
Late tonight until tmrw evening promises to be a rainfilled session for Chennai.
Tomorrow 1st tym going to watch Tamil movie in theatre n rains on the cards… wow
Foreca predicting ~ 38’c for Chennai today, ~ 35’c tomorrow and back to 38’c day after..
Where has uac formed guys? I didn’t checked maps as i was sleeping :p
Today will be the much cooler day of the July for chn, so far
MSV dead, RIP sir.
Bangalore 9.10am, Clear skies, windy and dry..
Don’t think its clear skies now. Good overcast conditions now.
how much rain for amb mouli
yesterday 0 mm
pj, road full water, today early morning it rained a lot
Dunlop 0 mm
Posted above 6mm only in ambattur
Full cloud cover typical lpa uac conditions hope this wont be a dissapointment….
Pj sir is vortex extending upto chennai?
Two monsoon scripts: Who’ll get it right?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Two-monsoon-scripts-Wholl-get-it-right/articleshow/48062952.cms
what is kea’s
The monsoon forecast may soon inch closer to perfect accuracy, if a research project from the Ministry of Earth Sciences gets the nod from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
The Ministry of Earth Sciences in collaboration with the Department of Space, National Remote Sensing Centre and Center for Ocean and Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, USA have discovered a new and more accurate parameter called Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT) for forecasting the rainfall during monsoon.
The new parameter also holds promise to predict unprecedented rainfall, which can throw lives out of gear.Currently, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is the only oceanographic parameter applied to predict the monsoon, which, scientists claim, often does not represent the heat energy available to the atmosphere. Interestingly, scientists found that rains in India are influenced by the Arabian Sea. Winds from the south of the equatorial Indian Ocean pass through Arabian Sea region before reaching the Indian coast.
As the OHC of this place is a useful indicator of the long-term transfer of energy and moisture to the atmosphere, it helps to understand the atmospheric circulation pattern and perhaps the amount of water vapour associated with the circulation of the monsoon.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-3158453/Monsoon-forecast-spot-soon-scientists-better-prediction-method.html
This is real july climate for chennai
Temp Max around 36c
6mm here in Ambattur from today early morning Showers around 4am. It rained for 35 mins lightly
Today Temperature surely less than 37.
Will settle between 35 – 36.
How’s the weather in Chennai. Going by satellite image it should be cool and cloudy.
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Cloudy…sun’s rays trying to penetrate
from now on temperature increase,humidity may dip
Yeah…looks so
Yes cool and cloudy ☁ weather in chennai
1.8mm here in valasaravakkam till 8:30am
One doubt people, if this uac descends to 700 levels, then will it not come towards coast? As 700 level winds are westerlies…or the wind pattern.will change to easterlies?
Omg..temperature shooting upp
Its hot outside and cloudy… I think today evening good chances for rain:-) am I Right
Weather is very humid today.. Courtesy:UAC
Surprised to see the Negative Topic today,
Chennai – Strongest Cumulonimbus of the season is expected by tomorrow.
Perfectly placed UAC east of NTN coast will bring heavy downpour tomorrow.
Rainfall will begin from tomorrow early morning, with light rain.
From Tomorrow afternoon it will be very heavy rain.
From mid-night we will start to get light rains from there it will build up. Tomorrow u will see big positive topic.
exactly partner, nice to know that it will happen, it will be like monsoonal time, tomorrow the day will also be like that….
creating positive topic for today will create unnecessary confusion
Heavy rain forecast for AP and Telangana in next week
Five dead in stampede at Godavari Pushkaralu in Andhra Pradesh
Nangaka cyclone moving NNW and ERC going on…..It cannot drag our moisture any more
Strengthening of ER Wave is the reason for upcoming UAC, that too forming near TN coast and moving in northerly direction.
By 16th it descends down to 700 HPA level near North Coastal AP, the pull effect of this system will bring cheerful rainfall on 15th and 16th over NTN.
Bay of Bengal going to flare up like anything in coming week
Summer in south India going to end by weekend
Both Chennai & Rajasthan involved. IPL as a whole will be banned
A hint to know the upcoming rainfall.
See the humidity, during SWM days, the humidity will come down below 50% or 40%, after sea breeze set, the humidity will increase once again from afternoon or evening, but today since the morning the humidity is still around 65%. This is very good indication of upcoming rainfall in Chennai.
The humidity is high due to the cloud cover.
these are high level clouds.
The high clouds block the sun too, so you don’t have much heating to lower the humidity.
i dont accept this…
Why is the temperature low?
will rains commence from sea or land today. ?
commence from cloud
lol…
Chennai Temp 32 Humidity 66
Uthiramerur Temp 35 Humidity 47
from where u r checking uthiramerur temp??
You can get any place weather details from any weather sites. Google it to get all sites link.
From The weather channel app.
This Uac is strong when compare to june month uac’s….
Gfs is spotting ….Dont be surprise if we reach all time record rainfall for july….
Sure Shot rains ahead!!!!!!!
Will it rain in land or like today early morning huge ts in sea?
Lets wait bro
More stronger more useless. Lol
dont underestimate it jupi…..dont forget april 15
it ll more widespread than april 15
April 15th was a big boon!
Don’t overestimate it too!
Well said
The causes for atmospheric circulations (UAC).
http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1311#comment-2045619947
Well said….not all uac will give rains
I will be happy if we cross double digits.. we have to lessen our expectations
jeetu ..i will give u rs.1000 if any part of the city didnt cross 50mm
Uac is like luck and click….trusting is based on that
Bad boy:-) betting n all uhhh
Lol
yes im too bad
Then pls be big hearted and give Rs.1000 to each and every member:-)
Hello
bolo
Lol, PJ will be rich
omg….that is not possible
🙂
This UAC will move north and leave us dry again
Yes….that’s what I mean…it will trigger swm for n.ap/orissa
Our UAC, tomorrow and thursday
Tomorrow UAC will be very close TN! Will bring copius rainfall to chennai and uac moves North wards on Thursday will bring heavy pull effect rains in chennai
Pull effect for UAC?
why not
Looks good in words!
I am not going to trust these nullschool bright blues anymore, too good to be true.
please tell me frankly!
How many of you expect this type of weather today??
Did you expected?
yes i expect
Then why you didn’t posted it yesterday itself? Tell me how its gonna be and from when clear days will be back
from thursday or fri
God knew it before itself
This is really amazing prediction from models
PJ sir were telling abt UAC from few days… Sir Rocks
I expect atchu
As far as I know Partha/PJ had hinted this from 15th atchu….I hardly didn’t know when you posted or expected
jeetu….i expect cloudy tuesday at yesterday night only when gone through our blog comments
you only asked anyone who expected this ?
Guys,
I am sure that you people have not observed UAC’s properly. I don’t think there is a space called “Luck” in weather. UAC can bring strong thunderstorms, sometimes floods too, when it descends down the HPA. The position of UAC, The wind pattern, Shear and the Mid Level Ridge Position, then RH at mid level at that time are important for a region to get heavy downpour, it is not the mistake of an UAC or it is not its weakness if a region does not get rainfall.
The formation of UAC now is going to be near the coast of NTN, this position is very very important during SWM season, this brings high humidity factor, this can bring strong north north easterly winds and the vorticity at 500 HPA over the coastal belts. This is very much favourable for NTN coast to get heavy rainfall. Even after it moves to North Coastal AP on 16th, the 700 HPA will come under play over NTN, we will get rainfall due to pull effect.
Dont miss to watch the 500-700 HPA wind direction.
One thing is for sure, coastal AP is going to get battered!
Chennai too
Yes
UAC is much needed for coastal ap
Nellore- 41C
ongole- 41.5C
Machillipatnam- 41.6C
kakinada-40C
For Chennai also as we went through 6days of 40+
Ameen leave this uac we will give this uac as a gift to ap.
we will get atleast 1 mm from this UAC
lol
why even 1mm that will make me more unhappy than it stays as 0mm itself
already we got .3mm
no it is 0.3mm
isn’t 0.3 same as .3?
oh i didnt see that point i thought 3mm
yes….
i also said 0.3 only…… .3 also 0.3
sorry
Super
Finally the straight 100° fah ends today..it was 22 days of heat recording 100° fah..Thanks to Uac..
Two monsoon scripts: Who’ll get it right?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Two-monsoon-scripts-Wholl-get-it-right/articleshow/48062952.cms
Skymet could downgrade its prediction in the event of the monsoon not strengthening in the next week or so.
1st victory for IMD
If rainfall picks up then IMD will upgrade?
ha ha. How will it pick up in the near term?
Irrespective of the final outcome, several officials and scientists in government meteorological institutes feel it is difficult for private weather agencies such as Skymet to acquire the infrastructure for accurate long-term weather forecasting.
“IMD is using a supercomputer for developing a coupled weather model for monsoon forecasts. We have been fine-tuning it for the past three years and it will be another two years before the model reaches its maximum possible accuracy. Very high computing power is required to achieve high accuracy,” said M Rajeevan, director of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, which is developing the computer model.
Skymet said it uses a CFS weather model for its forecasts. “We have doubled our computing capacity in the past six months,” said Sharma, who was earlier in the meteorology department of the Indian Air Force.
Skymet said it uses a CFS weather model for its forecasts – Spot on. Skymet is based on pure guess.
But CFS forecast on MJO in IO for July is weaker one. This forecast was given by CFS since June, they have not changed till date.
Weaker means less than 1?? MJO with amplitude 1 is good enough to give sufficient rains. To know this 1997’s MJO amplitude during June-September.
It is not machine capacity. Who handle it that is important.
The cat is out of the wall.
Ehsan, when they said about July month forecast during first week of July, that time itself i guessed that they are giving July prediction based on MJO return in 3rd week. They were depending on this phenomenon alone, they would have not seen any other criteria.
Lets see how much the MJO helps them.
Models not favouring strong MJO in July, it is either going to skip IO or it will be weaker one.
i posted 4 hrs back, but no response
you need to post when all are here
IMD may have all advanced equipment. Gov’t hospitals also have the best equipments in the world. But somehow they seem to get it all wrong all the time. I’m not saying Skymet may be spot on.
An example, Power Grid employees attended short term lessons in our IIM. They were either sleeping in class, or surfing the net. And they tried playing internal politics within IIM. They took us to their campus, and it was a typical gov’t office..dusty files and dusty employees but top class equipments which no one knew to use. Sad state of government agencies.
so you work in IIM?
Alma Mater
From tonight to tomorrow noon..Cola predicts 16mm & foreca predicts 12mm..
deficit doesn’t mean drought
But till today except south interior Karnataka and border of Gujarat & Rajasthan all other places received good rains so far (SWM missed any other places?)
Chennai!
omg…u left ap and tn
The position of UAC is the key here..usually during SWM period UAC forms near North or above west central Bay closer to NAP coast…This time it is forming near NTN coast eventhough it moves north we should get something here…i expect 7-8 cms atleast…..god be with me
Jupie. UAC may be useless in 2015 just because it did not rain in Chennai. Why ur opinion is based on Chennai rainfall. The same useless UAC gave 100 mm rainfall to other places this year.
Dont conclude past UAC as waste and failure based on chennai.
Even in last week of May UAC gave 100 mm rainfall to cuddalore.
First let it rain in chennai properly then we’ll talk about UAC
During ELNINO year MJO cannot become stronger in other zones than Pacific.
Partha, No need stronger MJO. Amplitude 1 is good enough to give copious rains (please see 1997 SWM season’s MJO phases to know this).
yes Rao, application of mind is needed. Not numbers. Thats why IMDforecast fails.
22 mm of rainfall in the last 2 days for pondy
FLASH : CSK official Gurunath Meiyappan and Rajasthan Royals co-owner Raj Kundra suspended for life
Who will win?
Cola – 17 mm
WU 10 mm
Foreca – 6 mm
Accu – 3 mm
Have you also taken yr.no into consideration?
we will get minimum 1 mm
What will be a significant amount to recharge the aquifers? Bangalore and Hyderabad receive up to 1000 mm rain annually yet suffer perennial water scarcity. Locals attribute it to the rocky terrain and water not seeping in.
Hyd no way up to 1000 mm..it is around 800 may be…
Up to 1000 mm, figures may vary. Yet it is a fact that water is scarce in Hyd.
all ll lose….we ll get > 50mm
Breaking News
CSK banned for 2 years
Its just a proposal and not a final action.. How can IPL survive without csk lol :p
not proposal. raj n ch suspended
But its a very lenient sanction…. they deserved nothing less than a total ban from IPL
If you ask me I would say IPL itself has to be banned
Yes
Yes Why IPL is not banned?
IPL is associated with MI ( ambani)
Then BCCI wont earn money.. IPL is their main fund raiser
then ipl itself gone…..
Says who..MSD will drag all CSK players into a new team called Ranchi Rovers or some such thing! MSD is like MSG in Maggi..ban him first then ban others. Or make someone a scapegoat like they did to Sreesanth, Ajay Jadeja and Azharuddin..
r u sure with that name ranchi rovers
I made up that name..MSD’s new team needs a name right!
lol….lets see….most probably it wont happen…but in ipl we cant predict anything like chennai weather
wat is there to predict if money plays cricket
exactly….u spot on
Very Good news. Cheaters
♦ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamilnadu &
south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level.
Just amazing !!!
I hope and wish everybody shares your optimism. I’m not doubting Madden-Julian, but it rains only when it *actually* rains.
Even IITM earlier indicated about full force revival of SWM after July 20 by the formation of MISO.
Did you know, senior IIT and IIM professors teach only a couple of hours a week and rest of the time they do consulting. The institute retains a percentage, and the professors get to keep the rest.
Signs of SWM revival…SWM rains started in Telangana and North Coastal AP today
How about areas bordering North Telangana like Chandrapur Gadchiroli Chattisgarh etc..do they receive good rains?
till now no rain there….
Kurnool rainfall from 1 st june till today
Nandikotkur 4 mm
in 45 days
Sad plight of our farmers..
Overall Kurnool gets its quota before completion of SWM. NEM-2015 also could be good. So no worries.
Many popups …
I dont know whether it is posted, but posting again.
Meena 2.4MM as per 05.30 AM update.
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/obs_data.htm
IMD Mid Day Bulletin,
♦ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamilnadu &
south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level.