Dry Weather to continue in TN

There is no significant weather feature in India except for the remnants of depression which now lies over Haryana and Punjab. A new disturbance is expected to form in the North Bay within the next 2-3 days which will bring the action back to West Bengal, Odisha and its nearby areas. It will also strengthen the offshore trough in the West coast. Rainfall activity is also set to increase quite significantly over north eastern states from tomorrow.
Dry weather will continue in most parts of TN with some thunderstorm activity over northern parts of the state.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai will see a max temperature around 39C. Skies will be partly cloudy with a chance of isolated thunderstorm activity during evening/night. There is a high probability of Chennai’s temperature to be above average(>35C) for the whole month.

Coimbatore’s temperature likely to be 33-34C with some scattered showers.

Madurai will witness a very warm day with temperature lingering between 39-40C.

1,573 thoughts on “Dry Weather to continue in TN

  1. Problem with these types of rains is, it releases all the latent heat into the atmosphere thus making living conditions unbearable after rain stops.

      • Entire October is like that in Mumbai, very miserable heat.But nowadays weather patterns have altered a lot, it rains in Mumbai even in Nov while Chennai sometimes receives less than average.

  2. Spot On!!!
    GFS
    UAC is Off Andaman Coast !!!
    Will Chennai Get Anything? Is A Big Question?

  3. Today’s Forecast by Vela

    Thanks for the UAC developing in 500hpa, it will keep the Temp around 35 to 37.

    Light drizzles may record near North coastal TN… We are going to Enjoy tonight at Chennai… Light to Medium Rains

    South AP will record very good wide spread rains…

  4. It’s so close, but it’s a too far to affect us. Don’t expect it to give us any rains. We have better chance tonight or tomorrow

  5. Ehsan today temp will increase as TS moves away. we will touch 38. Tomorrow its different

  6. Ant colonies are active for the last two days and I suspected something even before the news of UAC. Today they are relocating their eggs so it looks confirmed heavy rains.

  7. Forecasting styles in kea

    Eshan Negative Post Forecast (NPF)
    Krishna Pressure Forecast
    Aman Ant forecast
    Jupie Bat forecast
    bhaskar Eesal Forecast
    Someoneelse Dragon fly forecast
    Mouli Cloud forecast (NET)
    PJ Body and gut feeling Forecast (NBT)
    PJ moisture at all levels Forecast (Never failed to this day)
    Vela No idea

    Anything else.

  8. temp will remain in 38+ today, expect some rains late evening as UAC comes closer.. Damaka rains by tonight.

  9. The monsoon forecast may soon inch closer to perfect accuracy, if a research project from the Ministry of Earth Sciences gets the nod from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
    The Ministry of Earth Sciences in collaboration with the Department of Space, National Remote Sensing Centre and Center for Ocean and Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, USA have discovered a new and more accurate parameter called Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT) for forecasting the rainfall during monsoon.
    The new parameter also holds promise to predict unprecedented rainfall, which can throw lives out of gear.Currently, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is the only oceanographic parameter applied to predict the monsoon, which, scientists claim, often does not represent the heat energy available to the atmosphere. Interestingly, scientists found that rains in India are influenced by the Arabian Sea. Winds from the south of the equatorial Indian Ocean pass through Arabian Sea region before reaching the Indian coast.
    As the OHC of this place is a useful indicator of the long-term transfer of energy and moisture to the atmosphere, it helps to understand the atmospheric circulation pattern and perhaps the amount of water vapour associated with the circulation of the monsoon.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-3158453/Monsoon-forecast-spot-soon-scientists-better-prediction-method.html

  10. 6mm here in Ambattur from today early morning Showers around 4am. It rained for 35 mins lightly

  11. One doubt people, if this uac descends to 700 levels, then will it not come towards coast? As 700 level winds are westerlies…or the wind pattern.will change to easterlies?

  12. Surprised to see the Negative Topic today,

    Chennai – Strongest Cumulonimbus of the season is expected by tomorrow.

    Perfectly placed UAC east of NTN coast will bring heavy downpour tomorrow.

    Rainfall will begin from tomorrow early morning, with light rain.
    From Tomorrow afternoon it will be very heavy rain.

  13. Strengthening of ER Wave is the reason for upcoming UAC, that too forming near TN coast and moving in northerly direction.

    By 16th it descends down to 700 HPA level near North Coastal AP, the pull effect of this system will bring cheerful rainfall on 15th and 16th over NTN.

  14. A hint to know the upcoming rainfall.

    See the humidity, during SWM days, the humidity will come down below 50% or 40%, after sea breeze set, the humidity will increase once again from afternoon or evening, but today since the morning the humidity is still around 65%. This is very good indication of upcoming rainfall in Chennai.

  15. This Uac is strong when compare to june month uac’s….
    Gfs is spotting ….Dont be surprise if we reach all time record rainfall for july….
    Sure Shot rains ahead!!!!!!!

  16. Our UAC, tomorrow and thursday
    Tomorrow UAC will be very close TN! Will bring copius rainfall to chennai and uac moves North wards on Thursday will bring heavy pull effect rains in chennai

  17. As far as I know Partha/PJ had hinted this from 15th atchu….I hardly didn’t know when you posted or expected

  18. Guys,

    I am sure that you people have not observed UAC’s properly. I don’t think there is a space called “Luck” in weather. UAC can bring strong thunderstorms, sometimes floods too, when it descends down the HPA. The position of UAC, The wind pattern, Shear and the Mid Level Ridge Position, then RH at mid level at that time are important for a region to get heavy downpour, it is not the mistake of an UAC or it is not its weakness if a region does not get rainfall.

    The formation of UAC now is going to be near the coast of NTN, this position is very very important during SWM season, this brings high humidity factor, this can bring strong north north easterly winds and the vorticity at 500 HPA over the coastal belts. This is very much favourable for NTN coast to get heavy rainfall. Even after it moves to North Coastal AP on 16th, the 700 HPA will come under play over NTN, we will get rainfall due to pull effect.

    Dont miss to watch the 500-700 HPA wind direction.

    • Skymet could downgrade its prediction in the event of the monsoon not strengthening in the next week or so.
      1st victory for IMD

    • Irrespective of the final outcome, several officials and scientists in government meteorological institutes feel it is difficult for private weather agencies such as Skymet to acquire the infrastructure for accurate long-term weather forecasting.

      “IMD is using a supercomputer for developing a coupled weather model for monsoon forecasts. We have been fine-tuning it for the past three years and it will be another two years before the model reaches its maximum possible accuracy. Very high computing power is required to achieve high accuracy,” said M Rajeevan, director of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, which is developing the computer model.

      Skymet said it uses a CFS weather model for its forecasts. “We have doubled our computing capacity in the past six months,” said Sharma, who was earlier in the meteorology department of the Indian Air Force.

      • Skymet said it uses a CFS weather model for its forecasts – Spot on. Skymet is based on pure guess.

      • Weaker means less than 1?? MJO with amplitude 1 is good enough to give sufficient rains. To know this 1997’s MJO amplitude during June-September.

    • The cat is out of the wall.

      Ehsan, when they said about July month forecast during first week of July, that time itself i guessed that they are giving July prediction based on MJO return in 3rd week. They were depending on this phenomenon alone, they would have not seen any other criteria.

      Lets see how much the MJO helps them.

      Models not favouring strong MJO in July, it is either going to skip IO or it will be weaker one.

    • IMD may have all advanced equipment. Gov’t hospitals also have the best equipments in the world. But somehow they seem to get it all wrong all the time. I’m not saying Skymet may be spot on.

      An example, Power Grid employees attended short term lessons in our IIM. They were either sleeping in class, or surfing the net. And they tried playing internal politics within IIM. They took us to their campus, and it was a typical gov’t office..dusty files and dusty employees but top class equipments which no one knew to use. Sad state of government agencies.

  19. The position of UAC is the key here..usually during SWM period UAC forms near North or above west central Bay closer to NAP coast…This time it is forming near NTN coast eventhough it moves north we should get something here…i expect 7-8 cms atleast…..god be with me

  20. Jupie. UAC may be useless in 2015 just because it did not rain in Chennai. Why ur opinion is based on Chennai rainfall. The same useless UAC gave 100 mm rainfall to other places this year.

    Dont conclude past UAC as waste and failure based on chennai.

    • Partha, No need stronger MJO. Amplitude 1 is good enough to give copious rains (please see 1997 SWM season’s MJO phases to know this).

  21. FLASH : CSK official Gurunath Meiyappan and Rajasthan Royals co-owner Raj Kundra suspended for life

  22. ♦ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamilnadu &
    south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level.

  23. I hope and wish everybody shares your optimism. I’m not doubting Madden-Julian, but it rains only when it *actually* rains.

    • Did you know, senior IIT and IIM professors teach only a couple of hours a week and rest of the time they do consulting. The institute retains a percentage, and the professors get to keep the rest.

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