Easterlies are expected to affect TN coast from 18th onwards. We need to wait and see how much rain will chennai recieve from this.
Easterlies are expected to affect TN coast from 18th onwards. We need to wait and see how much rain will chennai recieve from this.
KeaWeather Archives 
For South India, another easterlies is speeding towards Tamilnadu coast…http://ow.ly/i/7VXdc
A low-level circulation also expected to pop over S-W Bay along Srilanka coast tomorrow…http://ow.ly/i/7VXkU
Showers expected to start along central,S-E,N coast of Tamilnadu from early hrs of Tuesday.
Easterlies is expected to persist along Tamilnadu coast from Tuesday even till 21-Dec !!
“More heavy rain ahead for interior, coast”
As expected Chennai will get decent rains after dec 15..
Some TS SE to Chennai and wind direction SE to NW..
A much anticipated part of the month is nearing, let’s see how it turns us favour
OMG…as GB pointed out easterlies strengthening over BOB.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
now r never do r die hit r miss period, in one
word , climax , stage..hope 4 d best …
After 3 days decrease in SOI, as expected it increased again according to its latest BoM values.
SOI increased to-4.4 as per latest reports 🙂
BoM SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
Rs rao sir has the mid level winds changed from E TO W because it was in SW TO NE that spoiled our chances from last system
yes, they have changed
Thanks
Wowooi
alert…BOB-convection increasing….
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Very active days are nearing hoping for some good showers along Tamilnadu.
Probably central and south receives good rain and N.TN and S.AP too will have lots of thundershowers.
Chennai could get Rains from the systems in BOB and we could end in near to normal category before dec end and extension of NEM is possible till jan mid.
The mid level would only be feeding dry air towards north TN for at least a week.
South TN is going to get the best of the easterlies.
Convection is around N.TN north coastal tamilnadu will have showers from 16th evening.
Easterlies picking up moisture will be back soon.
Simla Snow
Guys, what is going to happen tomrw, we will see sun or not….?
Do u want snow
Wowooi
Hostage crisis in Sydney.
2 people have taken over a Lindt chocolate cafe in Sydney with around 40 people inside.
hi, have planned an sports activity on dec 20 outdoors, how is the forecast for that day
Where Chennai or Sydney?
very much in our singara chennai
This NEM has been difficult to predict. No comments regarding 20th. Some rain is possible starting on 18th. That’s best I can say at the moment.
I will go ahead anyhow, dont expect any torrential spells from now on.
Good choice
If kea is positive rains for sure
dec rainfall stats wonder who will win, anybody predicted less than 120 mm likely.
Isolated rains expected during 20, 21 & 22 ….
gud mrng guys
A little bit of chillness than previous days, but I think its fine for rains. Great rains waiting for NTN and Chennai as natural signs are great.
gud mornings guys…very gud looking topic..lets see how much rain does the nature gives….
some ts forming near and close to chennai..
isolated showers can be expected…
Do you know why Astrology predicts heavy rain after sani peyarchi (SS to forgive) –
Viruchigam symbol is kottum, so rain will also kottum
according to astrology vrichiga rasi is a watery (jal) sign, tht’s why they predict more rain in the next 2.5 / 3 years.
Beyond 500 units of usage,single unit costs 6.60rs
Flash News,
MJO expected in Phase 3 by 18th.
So good chance with fav soi right
radar is not working?
entire imd sites goes temporarily out of service
Dundee sat update
good one
Where is Hagupit here?
no idea.. they hav been merged with tis wave
not sure..might be
9.30 Am satellite image
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/sat_dat/img/reg/sat_img_sea1.html
IMD site is working now..
noted thanks
A quite small packet of Dry air in Central India..
any chance of rain in late afternoon for chennai
Depression close to TN coast…
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_asia_192_850_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=asia&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_vort_ht&fhr=192&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=126&scrolly=32
i think its a cyclone
Yeah it should be a DD
Bay is very active in Dec instead of nov..hope can get more rains and finish NEM with a cyclone end of this month or 1st week of jan
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_asia_384_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=asia&storm=&cycle=00¶m=precip_p24&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+00+UTC&scrollx=209&scrolly=223
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
TAMIL NADU RAINFALL EDING 8.30AM ON 14TH DEC.
Thirukoilur arg (Villupuram Dist), Tirukoilur (Villupuram Dist) 9 each,
Kelambakkam (Kancheepuram Dist), Poondi (Tiruvallur Dist) 7 each,
Thiruvalangadu (Tiruvallur Dist) 6,
Polur (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Sankarapuram (Villupuram Dist), Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Cheyyur (Kancheepuram Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist) 5 each,
Arakonam (Vellore Dist), Tiruvannamalai (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Kallakurichi (Villupuram Dist), Madavaram AWS (Tiruvallur Dist), Kallakurichi arg (Villupuram Dist) 4 each,
Sathanur Dam (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Kvk kattukuppam arg (Kancheepuram Dist), Gingee (Villupuram Dist), ChiDambaram (Cuddalore Dist), Kumbakonam (Thanjavur Dist), Tiruttani (Tiruvallur Dist), Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Poonamallee (Tiruvallur Dist), Sholingur (Vellore Dist), Paiyur AWS (Krishnagiri Dist), R.k.pet (Tiruvallur Dist) 3 each,
Vellore (Vellore Dist), Sriperumbudur (Kancheepuram Dist), Sethiathope (Cuddalore Dist), Thanjavur (Thanjavur Dist), Srimushnam (Cuddalore Dist), Pallipattu (Tiruvallur Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Kaveripakkam (Vellore Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Ennore AWS (Tiruvallur Dist), Pullambadi (Trichy Dist), Illuppur (Pudukkottai Dist), Tambaram (Kancheepuram Dist), Ottapadiram (Toothukudi Dist) 2 each,
Thiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur Dist), Ariyalur (Ariyalur Dist), Chembarabakkam (Tiruvallur Dist), Vanur (Villupuram Dist), Thamaraipakkam (Tiruvallur Dist), Vallam (Thanjavur Dist), Puzhal arg (Tiruvallur Dist), Tiruvallur (Tiruvallur Dist), Chembarambakkam arg (Tiruvallur Dist), Manamadurai (Sivaganga Dist), Sirkali (Nagapattinam Dist), Surangudi (Toothukudi Dist), Ulundurpet (Villupuram Dist), Cuddalore (Cuddalore Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist), Papanasam (Thanjavur Dist), Anaikaranchatram(KolliDam (Nagapattinam Dist), Tindivanam nicra (Villupuram Dist), K.m.koil (Cuddalore Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist), Aduthurai AWS (Thanjavur Dist), Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist), Arani (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Valangaiman (Tiruvarur Dist), Padalur (Perambalur Dist), Wallajah (Vellore Dist), Poonamalle arg (Tiruvallur Dist), Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist), Kodavasal (Tiruvarur Dist), Manapparai (Trichy Dist) 1 each.
RADAR looks a little busy right now. Quite unexpected..
any chance of rain for chennai in evening
No.. It may dissipate i guess!!
kungfupanda 3 release date moved to 2016
http://thne.ws/1vQkbwC
i seen the radar but red spot not move to our coast why?
because rain is not expected for few more days
Those will probably die off.. overall the LP system will move west gradually and then new popups will form near our coast and rains will move in by tomorrow.
Some thunder storms to SE of Chennai moving slowly and flaring up and it is 60 to 90 kms from Chennai which might reach Tambaram/ Chennai in the eveining. Let us hope it sustains.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
Thunder Storms are moving slowly from SE to NW. Can expect some rains late evening.
When can we expect the next spell of rain?
after few days
Australia allrounder Steven Smith was on Monday elevated to the Test vice-captaincy and will lead the team in three Tests against India following Michael Clarke’s latest injury.
open in a new tab.. last frame of the gfs run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_asia_384_precip_p24.gif
compare tis image with above one..phillipines system is developing in s.china sea after the landfall
already posted by Jupi
Kea,
I am surprised by this topic, saying Easterlies to affect from 18th??
why?
Bcoz it is expected as early as tomo!
whats ur opinion?
we may have passing showers for next 2 days, and then we might get good rainfall only from 21st or 22nd.
there is another system going to form in SE Indian Ocean, which will start moving towards West from 20th.
this will let the wind over Northern Indian Ocean to strengthen, we might see a strong system in Bay after that time. Steering winds has to strengthen…
Also the mid level STR likely to be back at 15N from 18th or 19th. The consistency of that Ridge seen from 20th.
the elongated circulation wich was seen for last two days as trough in s-s.east bay has elongated further twrds northwest pointing north tn.. looks like tis rain wave is exclusively made for north tn n central tn
Finally world’s best model( ECMWF) picking up a strong system in BOB.
Partha, we will be under the grip of easterlies for 3 days (16, 17 and 18th) Nothing wrong with Ehsan’s title. He has to advance the date.
hy.pj sir..
I never said he is wrong, i am surprised with Ehsan’s positiveness, i accept that it will rain for next 2 days, but may not be heavier one…
It must be around early morning or overnight rains, like what we had couple of days ago..
oh no. I am not allowed to post positive topics anymore
not like that, i thought you are into the group of “NEM Over”, couple of times you mentioned we have 10 months more to get heavy rain…
yes, you yourself said in above statement rain will not be heavy
i said till 21st, not for entire season…
As suggested, we can be specific with dates But lot of action is left in this NEM
1st system – Easterlies (16-18th December) – Mainly Coastal areas including Chennai and it penetrates too to interior TN too on 17th and 18th.
when will the rain start ?tomorrow?
2nd System – Well defined LPA (20-22nd Decmeber) – Sri Lanka and GoM and also coastal areas.Chennai may get rain if lucky.
specifically from tomorrow night or early morning of wednesday, we have good chance for some showers.
3rd System – Another well defined LPA (23-24th Decmeber) – North and Central TN Widespread rains along coast and also interior. Chennai falls under the track
can nunga cross 50 mm from 3 systems combined if lucky?
4th system – Looks like a Depression (25- 27th December) – GoM and South Tamil Nadu. Chennai falls out of track
5th System – Thane II Possible Cyclone (29-31st December) – North TN – Chennai on course to get record rains if this track happens.
Never ever GFS has predicted anything like this for TN (5 systems in 15 days). Time for me to come out of hiding.
has ECMWF hinted the same sir?
for this only entire blog is waiting
Thank you GFS – and thank you 5 systems
But then the present name brings more systems compared to original !!
Systems are in “Bee” line to receive you!!
along with bloggers
It is the effect of Anna Nagar conclave?
The Pulse just west of Banda Aceh is showing good convergence and Divergence…Looks promising with favourable shear as well…
Is it something unusual to have continuous systems for us
No..conditions are now becoming favourable…IOD and SOI are slowly falling into their right places
May be, but as far my knowledge never in the past 5 systems following one another -someone can thorough light more on this
Our Christmas gift getting wrapped
GB Sir, correct me if I am wrong is it possible to have three systems within seven days especially two systems within 60 hours. Don’t you think it’s little too optimistic. Of corse I am no expert in front of the team here.
Yes. But i just posted what models are saying. Thats why i am also quoting that i have never seen anything like this.
Records are made to be broken
Better to wait then isn’t it GB Sir.
yes. But what is wrong in giving the model ouptput. Its not an forecast
at least for seeing your face again in this blog, i pray to god, that all output come true.
My question was not on whether you should wait and see before posting Sir, I was asking your advice for myself, whether to expect good rains.
Kadiralai kumbavil 50km vattathirkul malai…radar 50kms circle rains in
Ts moved in northerly direction, but new pop ups formed very close to coast in SSE of chennai within 100km from chennai
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm
Met dept invites Pamela Anderson to spread warmth
You chief guest?
Thank God I thought will spread “cloud”
With gusty winds very high krr
Rude!
Second that. That reply is in bad taste
Record breaking rains may happen this december if all 5 systems are possible
no Chennai will “float”
Do you think it can happen
height of hopes
I will be happy if we get 2 out of 5 systems
oh even one DD will do under present conditons
Yep, one proper one that’s it
This is exactly I have posted earlier saying – what was the past record – have we ever seen so many systems following one another? -I have doubt as far as my knowledge goes
I asked the same thing about best December quota, Susa is still in search for that
nature may decided to compensate dull november,
from 2nd and 4th system rain is doubtful for chennai region,
dark clouds in parrys
what a active december????
Squall in making for our coast
School?
Just before 1 hr came from school… Exams half day
Fine
Valarum Vingyani ah ivaru?
May be
will it reach us
any how with the indications, blog will be busy day and night till year end.
my first comment after a long break..rains for Chennai and Stn soon..get ready..with catamarans and buckets..two weeks of full drench to start..with some small breaks..in btw..
Its a beautiful sight in BOB and our catchment areas of GOT and South China sea..sign of things to come for the next weeks
North east to entire east side is looking awesome with huge cumulous clouds
possibility of TS activity over suburbs, due to high shear…
Drenching rain, strong wind and blinding snow are all expected across Japan from new storm: http://ow.ly/FSMjE
Please dont expect heavy flooding rains from the 1st system (16-18th spell), its only easterly wave. Moderate rains like the last week only can be expected.
Lets be content if we end up getting 50mm from this wave!! No High expectations.
Great. Pa group dont expect leave.
Hoping we end up 200mm by end of dec so we get our 800mm quote fulfilled
Places like Villivakkam,A.Nagar,Adam,George town etc received around 9cm last week. Another 6 cm is enough to reach 75cm this NEM (Normal NEM)
bengaluru will be attacked tomo ; ISIS
1st WD of the season pounds Himachal Pradesh, ending 8.30 am on 14.12.2014
=================================
Western Disturbance (W.D.) as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan and extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft runs roughly along Long. 72.0° E and to the north of 25.0°N Lat.persists.
in mm (min 30 mm)
Kandaghat – 88
Kasauli – 83
Nahan – 70
Banjar – 70
Sarahan – 68
Una – 60
Sundernagar – 60
Bangana – 60
Shimla CPRI – 58
Bhuntar – 56
Nauni – 55
Shimla – 54
Mandi – 52
Kothipura – 51
Barsar – 50
Kasol – 49
Chelsea – 41
Chamba – 41
Bharwara – 41
Udaipur – 41
Solan – 40
Malrun – 40
Dharamsala – 35
Kangra – 32
Majhouli – 31
More than 145 US flight cancellations early Monday, FlightStats reports: http://ow.ly/FT6sg
Maybe NEM will withdraw with a bang this time. December could be the month of rains after all.
Started with bang. Hope it ends with bang!!
Good intero and fabulous finish! In between nothing.
Forecast – Next 4 days
One of Infosys employees is being held hostage at Sydney cafe
He is ap native guntur
good, the controversial statement was removed just now! No politics and religion please.
wat is there for controversial. its just a news like kea’s below msg of infosys
Shankaran morning also I have pointed out – use the right terms, post right comments or else just watch read and enjoy . Most of the time what I do . There is plenty to read and enjoy here. Take it on the right spirit. Do not counter
What about the reply which Mr.Jeteender gave to Mr.Shankaran’s post about Pamela Anderson. Was it in the right spirit?
to be honest, I did not read that post
it is closed no need to go back, move forward and see whether it is going to rain from tonight
What is good for Peter has to be good for Paul as well. Why should selective moderation be encouraged.
Surface Winds
please post a link for mid-level winds
Agri forcast don’t have chart for that
ok noted.
I request moderators to delete Mr.Shankaran comment below…
Just now i was about to say, to delete it, good work moderators…
u r late
yes, just now i have refreshed the page…
I noticed it and commented a few seconds back, quick response.
any chance of late evening rains today
you need to ask partha, susa and GreenBee that question
they always predict copious rains
Karwar was superb, good beaches, ideal place instead of crowded and costly Goa.
GB sir
Here very dark passing clouds from East to west
Precipitation forecast for next 48 hours
getting dark in the horizon, slight chill breeze.
Here too
Feel some light showers may occur
For today.. From tomo moderate rains
so will it rain this evening?
maybe a few torrential drizzles as u say.
popups in ne,,
dark clouds moving form nw to se…
that is w to east
suddenly becoming dark..no popups..then how?
anyone from west mogappair or whereabouts?
Hi…i am from west Mogappair..what hapened?
hi naresh, are power cuts frequent in ur area, relation of mine wants to move in there.
No…power cuts are not frequent here….
ok, one person near collector nagar area said so. Anyway tks.
no issues, welcome
why mogapair only. power cuts are there for entire TN
except chennai
No one of my friend staying near collector nagar reports power cuts 3-4 times a week
comparing other districts, chennai and suburbs is far better,
bye guys..want to study for tomorrow exam…
bye..
Good luck stay away from here as much as possible till you finish your exams – it is very addictive.
Tomo i have English exam
Good luck to you 2 – and this applies to you as well ameen – i know you are were curious on the rain front
but my sincere advise is to finish your preparations and do well in your exams.
Thanks
5.4 earthquake, 107km WNW of Hofn, Iceland. Dec 15 09:26 at epicenter (depth 10km). http://j.mp/1sujzlN
Good news
yes today midnight is 16th and our next next easterlies will affect us.
Four armed men enter apartment in Belgian city of Ghent – police seal off surrounding area http://http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30478231
oh
Light rain possible tonight, tomorrow night until wednesday morning we might get decent spell…
after that ?
Yes partha , fairly good chances tonight itself
we have #2. #3, #4, #5 to follow
You mean we have very little time hence #1 should start today
sorry my reply was to naresh’s post. He asked after that
Ok Kea
Geminid meteor shower to light up the weekend sky
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/12/tech/innovation/geminid-meteor-shower-2014/index.html?hpt=hp_bn11
Interesting. ! Wanna try to explore it. . But our City light pollution will spoil it! 😦
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_asia_054_precip_p24.gif recent gfs forecast for next 2 days
As per Foreca only <20mm for 16 & 17 Dec.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
sir, it has been said lot of time by experts, don’t go by the quantity of models.
Ok. Let it be! 🙂 We will be happier with something than nothing 😀
Latest Dundee Sat update
Tomorrows forecast
Susa! سوسا
assuming the current fortnight will be busy with rains, what amount can be expected at the end of this year?
Around 150 mm
300mm
You mean for Chennai Nungambakkam.
Yes
300 is too much. I think Chennai will be floating.
y not 290?
mine 15 cm to 22cm.
for both nunga, and meena
possible if all the forecasts comes true and near to NTN.
as per models 3 out of 5 favours ntn rainfall, hope is there.
may be for entire chennai put together
readings are separate for each stations, i hope both nunga and meena receives 15 to 22 cms seperately.
The bats under the plantain leaf has now an additional partner waiting for the rains since two days,
After this trough passes, a strong circulation is expected to shape up ESE of Lanka