707 thoughts on “Chance of showers from late evening

    • Try to push the remnants of Hagupit into our bay close to GOM as that is the ideal place from where even if we receive a shadow – we will have good rain – btw – bon voyage and enjoy ur trip.

  1. First its better to be familiar with the key words (i.e. equatorial zonal wind, easterlies, westerlies, tropical stratosphere, tropical tropopause) involved in QBO pulled out from Wikipedia.

    I think all the above keywords are interlinked with NEM/SWM related rainfall systems over Indian subcontinent/tropical global climate.

    The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (from Wikipedia):
    The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.

    QBO wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

  2. Chennai is going to witness an excellent finish of NEM this year. Starting from 21st Dec to 31st Dec it will be rain dhamaka. Particularly second and third low which is expected to hit TN coast on 26th and 30th will bring bounty of rain. chears.

  3. Had asked this last night, posting again.
    How many years has seen two cyclones after December 20th. Has it ever happened? Green Bee was mentioning two cyclones possible as per models.

  4. Guest11k/Vela,

    SOI variation depends majorly one ONI-index than MJO (yet to enter phase 4/3).
    If we see latest ONI index Nino 3&4 further warmed up relatively when compared to nino1&2 indexes. So SOI started decreasing.

    The Niño 3.4 region rose to 0.9 C over the last week, and is at least 0.5 C for the 9th week in a row as weak El Niño conditions continue.

    Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
    Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
    05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9
    12NOV2014 22.4 0.9 25.8 0.9 27.5 0.8 29.5 0.9
    19NOV2014 22.6 0.8 26.0 1.0 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.9
    26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9
    03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9
    10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9

    MJO: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

    • Surely it will happen because when gfs removed all the rains for chennai on November 27th it happened when LPA was there in bob

      • situation looks good. Stage has been set for dramatic finish for this year NEM. 500 mm is over expectation. I would say 300 achievable and 400 mm will be a surprise.

    • captain before posting such report you should
      have given statutory warning!! heart patients
      n emotionally weak people please skip this
      news!!! ( like that )..500 mm for nem itself
      seems huge these days…in. 15 days ??!!
      if this happens odm n catamaran will b d
      need of d hour…

  5. 2nd day of heavy rains from WD in Himachal, ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
    ==============================
    Western Disturbance (W.D.) as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan now lies over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft runs roughly along long. 74.0°E and to the north of lat. 25.0°N

    in mm (min 15 mm)

    Arki – 90
    Nahan – 63
    Gohar – 51
    Sundernagar – 48
    Rajgarh – 44
    Mandi – 42
    Jogindernagar – 39
    Bhoranj – 38
    Hamirpur – 38
    Baldwara – 38
    Sarahan – 37
    Sunnibajji – 37
    Kasaol – 37
    Pandoh – 36
    Kahu – 35
    Kasauli – 33
    Solan – 33
    Kothipura – 30
    Palampur – 28
    Malraun – 25
    Kandaghat – 21
    Dharmashala – 18
    Barsar – 17
    Bajura – 15
    Bhuntar – 15
    Bhandal – 15
    Majhouli – 15

  6. after rain in the night, from the morning sun and clouds are playing hide and seek, waiting for how this day unfolds. now a days positive topic from captain often,which also increases the hope of this fortnight rain.

  7. Looks like a furious Santa claus rally is on the cards. Almost resembles 1983 December.This NEM is almost close to 1983 in terms of rainfall pattern.

  8. Tropical Pacific Ocean close to El Niño thresholds

    The tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds, with a number of countries around the Pacific Ocean basin and further afield showing some El Nino-like impacts in recent months.

    The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains warm, with surface temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Typically, after the ocean has exceeded thresholds for an extended period, an El Niño is considered to be underway. However, some atmospheric indicators, such as the trade winds, cloudiness and tropical rainfall, have not shown sustained and widespread patterns consistent with El Niño. The Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained negative for several months, has recently eased back from El Niño thresholds; this is likely to be a weather related short-term fluctuation in the index.

    The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating a greater than 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months. Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer than normal is likely for many.

    All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate little change is likely in the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks and months, with ocean temperatures forecast to either remain close to, or just above, El Niño thresholds. If the atmosphere does start to reinforce the ocean, models suggest the resulting El Niño would most likely be weak or moderate at most.

  9. Weather Outlook from 18th December 2014 to 22nd December 2014

    ♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over south peninsular India and Andaman & Nicobar Islands and at isolated places over Lakshadweep.

    ♦ A fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from 21st December.

    ♦ Weather would be dry over rest of the country.

    source: imd delhi report

  10. El Niño tracker status remains at ALERT Level

    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT level. Given current observations and model outlooks, there is at least a 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months, however, an El Niño event developing at this time of year would be unusual.

    Regardless of whether or not El Niño is declared, it has similar impacts for much of Australia, meaning below average rainfall and above average temperatures are likely for many in the months ahead, as shown by the Bureau’s recent Climate Outlooks.

  11. Rami,

    Based on the latest info on ENSO,

    1. I feel that there is a dry period ahead over Australia, hence once again the SOI may turn Negative after a weeks time, till that it will be negatively neutral.

    2. The NINO 4 and 3 are getting hotter and NINO 3.4 remains the same for the past 3 weeks, hence emergence of ELNINO Modoki possible, if NINO4 SST increases and NINO3 decreases, there is a chance for LANINA too by the upcoming summer.
    There are 2 possibilities, either MODOKI or LANINA.

    Correct me if i am wrong…

  12. Even I had similar thoughts once as nino 4 warming may help in bringing la nina , now I have realized it ..Nino 4 warming is quite common during elnino but until n unless central n east pacific shows decreasing trend in sst, elnino like conditions may persist till next summer..

  13. up to 8.30 am monday rainfall:
    thirukovilur – 9cm, kelambakkam,poondi -7cm, thiruvalankadu- 6cm, polur, sankarapuram, papanasam( tirunelveli), vandavasi, seyyur(kanchidt), manimutharu- 5cm.

    source: imd chennai

  14. Guys,

    There was an accident last night near Annanagar new flyover, may be the bloggers from that area might know it.
    It was one of distant relative, who met with this accident last night and got hit in the barricade at the centre of the road.

    His chest has hit the barricade and one of the ribs broken, he himself call the 108 and got ambulance and went to KMC and got admitted, but later on he had breathing problem and passed away early morning.

    This is due to – the broken rib bone has teared the lungs inside, so started to have breathing problem and passed away.

    Dont think that i am sharing my personal views here, but i have 5 accidents in the past one week, all dead on the spot.

    Last Tuesday my cab met with the accident, and all my colleagues got injured and they are safe, by gods grace i was on leave on that day.

    I request you people to follow the rules properly, even though there is no traffic, please follow the signal.

    Expecting you to be good and disciplined citizens of India.

    I was really affected by hearing and seeing these accidents for the past one week.

    Please take care guys…

    • Yup. I know a lot about accidents. I myself broke my finger couple of months back in a bike accident. I couldnt use my left hand for a month and the experience was horrible. So i advise ppl to not overspeed even if there is no traffic. Even a running dog could distract you. Pls be safe.

      • R.I.P sad to hear Rules r framed only to obey must think family members r depending on every one who is riding be slow and safe riding..

      • people who rash drives, or disobey the rules , before to that they should think about their family, lot of family depends on single earning, any loss will jeopardize the entire family.

      • especially the sand carrying lorries drives in over speed, we can see this in trunk roads, and some times in interior roads also

    • Really sad to hear,r.i.p,
      my close friend in college died this year passed away in a similar accident to this he was hit and run by a tanker lorry while riding his bike:(

    • Absolutely we must follow the rules – obey the signals irrespective of police presence.Even a small country like Sri Lanka where people follow the road rules meticulously . Just cross in the pedestrian crossing all vehicle will stop automatically without police presence. We need to inculcate good habits

      • It was really Amazing to see the civic sense and discipline in the Sri Lankan society. Most of the places are neat and clean and people follow the rules and Q at most of the public places. Looks like India and Indians are one of the major exception to the normal human being behavior.

  15. Madden–Julian Oscillation to strengthen over Indian Ocean
    The moderate to strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) that recently moved eastwards along the equator at Australian longitudes has weakened over the western Pacific this past week. It is now so weak that it is unlikely to still be influencing tropical weather.

    Model forecasts indicate a slow moving MJO will strengthen in the tropical central or eastern Indian Ocean this week. While there is some uncertainty concerning its strength and speed, some models indicate a weak MJO will be over Australian longitudes during the last week of December moving eastwards into the west Pacific Ocean in early January.

    When the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean at this time of year, as some models are indicating will be the case for the next fortnight, it increases the risk of tropical cyclone development in the region. Likewise, as the active MJO moves over Australian longitudes, it increases the chance of monsoonal rainfall over northern Australia as well as tropical cyclone development across the Australian region.

  16. Northern Australia heats up
    This past week has seen a rise in temperatures across northern Australia. A heat-low, an area of low pressure that forms over very warm land surfaces, has formed over central Australia. This weather pattern has increased westerly wind flow and temperatures across northern Australia and caused some rainfall over the Kimberley region. High temperatures are expected to continue for most of this week.

  17. El Niño–Southern Oscillation nears El Niño thresholds
    Oceanic indicators of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are hovering near El Niño thresholds; however, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, cloudiness and rainfall have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.9 °C. The latest Southern Oscillation Index value up to 14 December is –5.1.

    Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer than normal is likely for many.

  18. We have got green signals from GreenBee abd optimisticGreen for the rains…. here we go and expect GreenBee to come back to his original avatar…:)

  19. Earth on track for hottest year

    ——————————————————-

    The world is still heading for the hottest year on record although last month was only the seventh warmest November since 1880, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Monday.

    The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces during November tied with 2008 as the seventh highest for the month, at 0.65 degrees Celcius above the 20th century average, the NOAA said in its monthly report, according to Xinhua.

    This ends a streak of three consecutive months with a record warm monthly global temperature, but the average temperatures for September-November as well as the first 11 months were still both the highest on record for such periods, it said.

    If December is at least 0.42 degrees Celcius warmer than the 20th century average, 2014 will be the hottest year on record, the NOAA said.
    http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/earth-on-track-for-hottest-year/article6696992.ece?homepage=true
    The previous three warmest years on record are 2010, 2005 and 1998.

      • earlier it was thought like tat but interestingly new agcm,ogcm models stimulation shows decrease in frequency of tropical cyclones all around the globe from 2020 to 2050.but the intensity is highly getting doubled.

      • agree, if we see in the recent typhoon activities in u.s and elsewhere the impact were high than all the previously known,

    • This is the third consecutive day the market has fallen – incl. friday. – tough to predict – currency hedging also has
      taken a beating – what about your silver portfolio have you made anything or on the negative ?

      • I know it is off track – but how do you say the date feb.20 ? Is it due to budget or otherwise? But
        people who are in the market will not walk out – or give up it is an addiction like this blog .

      • Means final week of Feb onwards, dip meanings a plunging low from the recent highs, but 2015 will be a zig zag will no more top highs

  20. an article in today’s dinamalar says around 15 tmc water wasted from papanasam dam, on one hand we have to be at the mercy of raingod, and neighbor states for water, and in other hand we waste the same, will authorities build new dams to store precious water?

      • the geographical place of t.n, has made that we have to depend on others, though as per constitution all rivers are for all people of india, it is not the reality one.

    • Before building new dams the priority should be to desilt the existing ones. We had a chance when most of them were dry a couple of years back.

      • interlinking of rivers with in the state can also a be a solution, though it costs more, this way we can avoid wastage, like veeranam lake connected with chennai.

  21. Kurudamannil records surprise heavy rains, Kerala rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
    ===========================================
    The trough at mean sea level from southeast Arabian Sea to southwest Madhya Pradesh now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to north Madhya Maharashtra.

    in mm (min 10 mm)

    Kurudamannil – 111
    Chengannur – 46
    Mavelikkara – 39
    Kollam – 36
    Mananthavady – 35
    Ambalavayal – 31
    Vythiri – 29
    Idamalayar – 17
    Haripad – 15
    Kuppady – 11
    Kanjirappally – 10
    Kozha – 10
    Thariode – 10

  22. IMD predicts chances of thunderstorm for today and light rains for 17th & 18th. Thereafter partly cloudy,
    Not very encouraging.

  23. Papanasam records 400 mm from this easterlies spell, TN rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
    ===========================================
    The trough at mean sea level from southeast Arabian Sea to southwest Madhya Pradesh now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to north Madhya Maharashtra.

    in mm (min 5 mm)

    Papanasam Dam – 66
    Lower Papanasam – 50
    Ambasamudram – 27
    Servalar – 25
    Kannadiyan – 24
    Ottapadiram – 23
    Pandavaiyar Head – 23
    Erode – 20
    Needamangalam – 20
    Sholayar Dam – 18
    Parsons Valley – 17
    Sathanur Dam – 15
    Palayamkottai – 15
    Mettur – 13
    Ponnamaravathi – 13
    Gudalur Bazar – 12
    Kovilpatti – 12
    Palladam – 12
    Erumaipatti – 12
    Arantangi – 10
    Kayathar – 9
    Nallur – 9
    Tiruppatur (S) – 9
    Lalgudi – 8
    Dindigul – 8
    Kodaikanal – 7
    Veppanthattai – 7
    Tirunelveli – 6
    Manimutharu – 6
    Alangulam – 6
    Paramathi – 6
    Upper Kodayar – 6
    Tattayyangarpettai – 5
    Eravangalar – 5
    Polur – 5
    Uttukkuli – 5
    Kangayam – 5
    Manachanallur – 5

  24. rain may be expected in coastal areas, and interiors for next 24 hrs, low has formed in s.w bob,
    imd chennai mid day update to media

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