An India Met Department outlook said that thundershowers would continue to lash many places over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and south coastal Andhra Pradesh on Monday. Rain or thundershowers have been forecast also at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka on Monday.
KeaWeather Archives 
Hi ,,
Hope TN & Chennai will be saved from water scarcity if NEM extends till December last and gives good rainfall .
the present system would intensifies to cat 3/4 and crash into NTN/SAP around Chennai (preferably north of Chennai)
However i am very cautious about IMD’s easterly wave prediction around 20th, whether the system would drastically weaken before landfall. I am closely watching the parameters HPAs, MJO, SOI and SSTs etc.
Rain on the way!
ramisettisrinivasa You mean cat 3 ???
ramisettisrinivasa Latest INSAT image :
rame1975 ramisettisrinivasa y this time IMD also underestimating the coming system, despite of good Andaman circulation?
ramisettisrinivasa Where is the Trough of low pressure per IMD forecast now situated ?
The IMD outlook says convection below south of 12.8 N.
ramisettisrinivasa rame1975 Cat 3 is possible now .But IMD is predicting rains for extreme south Peninsula only.
rame1975 ramisettisrinivasa all parameters looks good for that convection?
in coming 24-48 hrs we can get clear picture
vagaries post
Bay will be buzzing again from Thursday,18th: Precipitation resumes for the East Coast from 22nd.
A UAC will form “in situ” in the Bay in the Central region on 18th at around 15N. The UAC will descend to sea level, track Westwards, and cross the East Coast of India in the Southern AP region around the 22nd. Rains very heavy along AP coast and interiors, but good rains all along the coast of TN also. Could be numbered by Tuesday (BB-19)
ramisettisrinivasa Vagaries post On 21st November, potential Low could form in the SE Bay, South of Andaman Islands in the 7N region. Can have a good potential for further developing possibly up to DD or cyclone stage.
ramisettisrinivasa http://2.bp.blogspot.com/–h1l8Bh4y7I/UojWYiu8duI/AAAAAAAAPcE/vnju81NRj3Y/s640/18+to+22+forecast.jpg
rame1975 lets wait and see? good night.
ramisettisrinivasa rame1975 Good night ….
hi , Good night to all bloggers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Blog admins, Pls remove this post if you think this is unwanted or else leave it.Article in the Hindu Business line which explains blog topic in detail
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/depression-passes-but-more-rain-on-way-for-tn/article5361141.ece
IMD data
Chennai rainfall
Deficit of -273 mm till date (0830hrs of 17.11.2013) from 01.10.2013
Chennai AP
Deficit of -108 mm till date (0830 hrs of 17.11.2013 ) from 01.10.2013
Hope by mid december it should be erased and showing excess in figures. !!!!!!!!!!!!
Gud morning
The would be named system Helen on 25th
On 21st for chennai
System near Andaman is intensifying rapidly and getting nice shape….
S… Cola predicts around 60mm from this. Hope the towers will grow
The position and intensity as of
201311171800
13.8 90.9 15
good morning friends
The low pressure in bay has organised rapidly under low vertical wind shear.The centralized convection is developing over the center indicating system to near depression status.Outlfow is good provided by anticyclone over top of the system.
The system flow is radial.
None of the models were able to pick up this rapid intensification.
Looks like navy and jtwc again stopped monitoring the bay system.
Wind shear is low over the system but its moderate along its path.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=Z&time=
Looks like its going to be similar to previous system with fluctuating intensity.
rain started ere
A mass of thunderstorm is developing close to brunei which is expected to move westward and become a cyclone in bay of bengal.
paul abraham light rain here
Good morning to all. Hope to get some rains from the new system near Andaman. Currently it’s shape appears a 3-bladed wheel ready to take on. However further intensification and W-SW movement needed else it will go to B’desh
vinodh1986 Vinodh, Is this the apart from the one currently stationed at Andaman?
rame1975
really doubt if we could overcome such huge margin, even if we we should be equal to normal rainfall
Good Morning to all bloggers
Kalyan_nanganallur yes..this one is positioned in south china sea.
Kalyan_nanganallur it would in a west-south west direction towards south AP and north TN.Looks like intensity would fluctuate.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
It looks like competition between 90E vs 110E. If 90E becomes powerful system, then 110 E would be weaker and vice versa.
dark clouds are moving quickly
super shape of system
light rain again
vinodh1986 Kalyan_nanganallur Repeat of 30W? Outflow appears little disorganised. Creates a doubt whether this will intensify or dissipate in the sea itself?
That is what most of them said yesterday. Expect a cyclone to cross chennai on 24 th or 25th.
System sitting in 5N-110E looks more deadly than the one sitting near 90E. Vietnam is going to face another fury it seems
paul abraham cola update was last night.
Tiny storms in east…. It may reach city in an hour
Looking at this SST May not be a concern
central bay disturbance is now well marked ,significant low… Conditions seems to b gud but shear increasing along its path… Its clear with the sat pic, the radial outflow is perfect…
Pradeep John – Anna Nagar West paul abraham Could any one post the image of the cyclone formation which is crossing on 24th/25th ?
I would like to quote rami’s comment. It looks like system in Bob vs system near Vietnam.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/wvw.htm
Looks like south south eastern flow of moisture is pulled by Vietnam system.
Go through the older comments posted today morning. It was already posted by me
Mjo phase diagram shows the mjo re-emerging over ind ocean with weak amplitude.
RaijinWeather Got it. Thanks.
Foreca predicts rains today but doesn’t look good for rest of the week.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
Entire stretch from Chennai to pondy is in due for sharp showers.
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/doppler-radar-products/
Check the model data of wunderground.
I am also joining with selva, vinod, pradeep and our fellow bloggers regarding more intensification of 110E than 90E.
It looks MJO & SOI would take 3-4 more days to stabilizes (at present they r under severe fluctuations). By then 90E would come close to SAP without much intensification.
It seems 110E will be emerging in SE BOB around 21st. I hope MJO & SOI would stabilize by that time to make 110E as more powerful.
good morning, showers on the way, dark already here.
dark clouds forming over east we are in threat
heavy drizzling starts, looks dark
Where
nandanam
steady drizzle past 10 minutes
it is raining again in Chennai- great
Heavy rain lashing adam
Bay system already looks like a depression.. Swirling around
25th nov system is getting shape in w.pacific.. named as 90w
The Next System’s Latest Image …. Is it going to ?
jon, v hav mistaken..current disturbance in central bay is not podul remnant… Podul seen near upper thailand.
Ganesh Arshavin looks like towards Bangladesh?
@Selcyclone i cant see any circulation over thailand in sat.. This has to be podul
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=iiir&CONT=asie&BIG=1&LOOP=12
ramisettisrinivasa Ganesh Arshavin Nah ! Models showed North tn And south Ap LF near Shriharikota , Chennai , Nellore….But I feel Its Going too north ! Seeing its movement Till now
ramisettisrinivasa Ganesh Arshavin its movin straight W
Looks like the system would move west
jon mount
jon mount ramisettisrinivasa Ganesh Arshavin To North Tn and South Ap ?
ramanisantha jon mount yup.. Steady W track
A deal has been struck between two storms one at 90 E and the other at 110E. The less powerful 90E has agreed to move faster towards the Central TN coast so that 110E can later intensfiy after it gets into the Bay.
Both storms have agreed to crash into Central TN and not AP because AP has got enough rain. They have also agreed to not to become cyclones and damage the coast with winds. They have worked out a deal with 500mb level winds to draw loads of moisture from the warmer south bay.
nshankara Is This scientific or your Wish of how things must happen ? 😛
Ganesh Arshavin ramisettisrinivasa 110 E looks emerging as WML/depression. If any powerful system coming towards North-central BOB, there is a fair chance of going towards north either West Bengal/Bangladesh/myanamar.
The above opinion is only premature/ it is not serious.
Jon, c navy nrl page ,it is still tracking podul… Seen in upper thailand
Selcyclone oh yes.. But tis system also came from thailand
The current bay system mite surprise all of us
@jon mount yes.ther is nothing in podul.. No convection or no spin in it..
jon mount we need to wait till another round of intensification. Is descended to lower level or not?
ramisettisrinivasa jon mount i guess it has..
jon mount ramisettisrinivasa y IMD is not picking? still so far IMD predictions done well.
Still drizzling in Adam…these showers formed rite on the coast..like the ones which develop along the Kerala coast during SWM..
9mm in besant nagar from this short sharp spell
ramisettisrinivasa jon mount gfs is doing a gr8 job.. Expect imd to come up with a warning soon
There seems to be good rainfall in medavakam velchery rd
jon mount ramisettisrinivasa what abt ur opinion regarding 90E vs 110E?
Typical morning rains inducted by easterlies
jon mount Selcyclone I am thinking 90 E is generated from the pulse of depression podul. tats y it has strengthened rapidly overnight.
raining quite steadily since 8:15 in and around IITM
ramisettisrinivasa 90e has all the potential to become a tropicql storm.. I think models are taking it lightly.. 110e has long way to go so lets wait n see
jon mount ramisettisrinivasa I also expected same concern yesterday night. however I am waiting for today’s MJO & SOI values.