First there was talk of a super cyclone, now unfavorable conditions in BOB making life difficult for intensification. By Friday/Saturday, things will be clearer if 94B can become a cyclone.
First there was talk of a super cyclone, now unfavorable conditions in BOB making life difficult for intensification. By Friday/Saturday, things will be clearer if 94B can become a cyclone.
KeaWeather Archives 
Yesterday evening I was mentioning about the system moving further South which seems to be the case with the latest updates. I feel the system might be one more addition to the stillborns’ which Mahasen seems to be fond of. I am no expert so mine is purely a gut feel.
from sat its almost certain tat mahesan has formed. waiting for offficial confirmation
ABIO10 PGTW 092130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/092130Z-101800ZMAY2013//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZMAY2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 93.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091720Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH CYCLONIC WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND A STRONGER
GRADIENT FLOW (30 TO 35 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
CIRCULATION IS ALSO IDENTIFIED IN THE ANIMATED DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS
INCREASING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 091800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM EASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO A
MEDIUM.//
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-irc.htm
looks ominous
http://www.weatheronline.in/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=in&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=iiir&CONT=inin&BIG=0&LOOP=12
Absolutely Jon..
gfs forecast has been spot on until now. development happening near banda aceh
acc to gfs system wil trak nw initially but something is pushing the system towards NE after 72hrs
4.6N 93.2 E Int-20:
w.o.w
Vmax- 24 Kts.
Circulation starting to strengthen.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305091800
Looks a cyclone. Agencies will announce it any moment.
It has developed into a depression.
Wind shear is 20 to 30 knots and it manages this kind of convection and circulation. Man.
its getting very good flow..Will be upgraded to a cyclone within 12 hours.
JTWC will then issue a track very soon. Will be interesting to see how they project it.
thats the main thing … the track that jtwc projects
Vinodh na,sry i slpt early, so i couldnt able to attnd ur call…
no problem
Circulation and structure looks very good. Slowly achieving symmetry.
It has shown an impressive organization in-spite of not so good atmospheric conditions.All the other conditions remain s very good except for the shear.It would have exploded with these set of conditions like High SST ,good outflow but unfortunately shear remains a problem throughout the forecast.
Yeah, The organisation it has already looks like it was under low shear. Such perfect conditions.
Otflow is good as mentioned by JTWC.Its looks like very close to a radial flow.
As i said before this is a highly impressive SST.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/indian
System slowly getting more influence 4m Anticyclone over vietnam …. Actually the culprit is slowly xtending near s.eastern arb sea near kerala going to push the system away 4m TN as per gfs….
There is an anticyclone pushing down south from AP to TN.
There is also an WD moving from west.
Conv reaching 50…
Anticyclone over the top of the system is displaced west of system indicating shear over the system.
Upper anticyclone developed little away 4m system..
shear is displacing it to the west of system.
Shear is expected across entire south bay caused by the approaching HPA from the west and is extending till upper levels.
Pressure drops from 1007 to 1004.
Vmax 22kts.
Cmc back again to machili.
The system has moved to a more traditional starting point of BOB cyclones. It looks highly unlikely it would come lower than Machilpatnam. Looks like Chennai would have to be happy with any left overs.
weather.edition.cnn.com/weather/intl/forecast.jsp Cnn Sat image looks good.
Hi guys, i have reached chennai after a long drive from Kodai
Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am in Karnataka
min 30 mm
Hira 138
Kardani 117
Gudura 115
Thippasandra 100
Marikunte 94
Chitradurga 86
Damavannahalli 86
Malandur 71
Hireguntanur 63
Gangavathi 62
Belvatgi 60
Badami 59
Huluguru 59
Parasurampur 58
Kamalapura 57
Sugur 53
Hippargi 52
Rantur 52
Hippargi 51
Venkatagiri 51
Attigundi 50
Belenahalli 49
B Durga 48
Oddarahatti 48
Chikkamadanur 47
Yedoni 47
Hospet 46
Ubrani 45
Challakere 45
Guledgudd 44
Ajjampura 43
Irrakalagada 42
Nidige 42
Giriyapura 41
Balehonnur 40
Hungund 40
Mundwad 38
Holalkere 38
Talaku 37
Basarikatte 36
Bankapur 36
Gunjahalli 36
Nidagal 36
Bukkambudi 35
Sandur 34
Harugeri. 33
Gudur 32
Turuvanur 32
Hedigonda 32
Walmi 31
Maski 31
Huniseghatta 31
Naribole 31
Hirewankalakunta 30
kaginele 30
Hagaribommanahalli 30
Navalgund 30
Kurkunda 30
Kunimellahalli 30
Talya 30
ending 8.30 am on 9.05.2013 *
Right in time for Mahesan. 🙂
it seems that this cyclone is not meant for us. Karthik, its very sad. Hope it gives some rains to Chennai from its outer bands.
😦 Hope we get something out of it.
Karthik, honestly I dont want a devastating cyclone and would any day prefer good amount of rains from this system.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=io&ACTIVES=13-SHEM-24S.TWENTYFOUR,13-IO-92B.INVEST&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=1&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20130510.0032.mtsat-2.x.ir1km_bw.92BINVEST.30kts-1000mb-54N-932E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=io921&ATCF_DIR=1&MO=MAY&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2013&YR=13&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=92B.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/tpw/microvap&PRODUCT=ir&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw&TYPE=ir&PROD=ir&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_bw
winds =30 knots .pressure=1000.
Cyclone warning alert will be issued by JTWC soon.
That looks fantastic. Odisha better be ready 1999 could repeat itself. Ominously this is not very far away from the starting point of 1991 Bangladesh super cyclone.
It seems that the upcoming WD is the major threat in making the cyclone to move more in easterly direction towards Burma.
BBC is also pulling the system away
I just love the sat image. Though it doesn’t look as organized as 94S, ours look wonderful. Hope it can fight all anticyclones and atleast come closer to Chennai.
Atlast ECMWF picks up the system near Banda Aceh
Welcome back Pradeep…How was the trip?
Can we expect anything from Mahesan for TN?
looks very bleak. My heart want it to come to TN. But tracking so many cyclones with these models. I feel it will go away from us.
If the 92B has moved as per the initial forecast, TN would have got bountiful rains…but 94s spoils all the party and dragged the 92B to the exteme south-east and this delay have cost us more
Welcome back pj sir..
Kind request. Please dont use sir. i am feeling very uncomfortable. I am one among you.
Kodai was awesome. I am not able to bear the Chennai heat after coming from a cold place.
94S is looking like a small kid before our 92B
but our fate that this is no use for TN as of now
Srikanth,
Odisha wont be affected by this storm, as the trough from upcoming WD will push the storm to Bangla / Burma.
5.4N 93.2E Intensity-30
Int Jump from 20 to 30.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
bengloor has rcvd extremey hvy rainfall of 21mm 😮
steering winds is the reason behind the expected NE movement of mahesan
Whatever happened to the astrologers forecast – Ramachandran that we will have a cyclonic storm on 15th May ?
Nothing new. It is just his 101st time incorrect prediction. Am I right Novak?
wait for another 48hrs
Appreciate your everlasting optimism Jon..
@Kea-To an extent only..I still give the benefit of doubt..He may come good this time–101 is still a good number..Lets wait..
JTWC cyclone formation alert
Models outlook for Mahesan
==========================
CMC – North of Chennai
————————
NavyGEM (Erstwhile Nogaps) – Bangladesh as a Very Severe / Super Cyclone
—————————
GFS – Burma
—————
ECMWF – Not picking up cyclone after 3 days
——————–
NCMWRF T574 model – Bangladesh
—————————-
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-18.htm
NCMWRF Unified model – Tamil Nadu
—————————-
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/Unified-model/forecast/UM_CH-16.htm
GEFS – Orissa
—————–
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/GEFS/GEFS_MSLP_CH-08.htm
Taiwan model – Not sure as only 4 days forecast available
—————-
Thailand model – Not sure as only 4 days forecast available
—————-
BBC – Not sure as only 4 days forecast available
————————
UKMO – Burma
———————
JMA – Orissa
—————–
Vagaries of Weather – Orissa / West Bengal
——————–
Ahhh here comes our cheer leader..Pradeep ,with all guns blazing..What an update…Super..
IMD GFS – Bangladesh
———————
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/144hGFSrain.htm
IMD WRF – – Not sure as only 4 days forecast available
———-
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/72hwrfdrain.htm
http://foreca.com/Indonesia/Banda_Aceh
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9213web.txt
Who all here still think this cyclone will hit TN?
Not me. What about you Ehsan.
Never from day 1. History was against this come coming here. Its their turn this time
still believe we’ll get some decent rains from tis cyclone. not sure abt tn landfall
Have you guys seen such a big Deep Depression in terms of size
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/cmv.htm
CTT is – 80C
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso1.htm
Ones gets a feeling as though the huge cloud mass would swallow entire south and central India at one go…
Hope TN will get some amount of rain from this huge DD
Jtwc tilting twrds nw direction..
I am from pondy. I think that sea breeze will be low over coastal tn from today.
looks vry similar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Andhra_Pradesh_cyclone
Expected… As it moves away from equator into the warm waters, it wil develop more
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/static/cyclone-history-bb.htm
Cyclone history from 71 till 99–Out of 41 recorded landfalls-six have taken place in summer months.
same thing here too :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Andhra_Pradesh_cyclone
simmilar
It may turn towards Chennai for some more time before moving north
Gfs says Ther is a anticyclone 4m vietnam going to guide twrds north…jtwc says system lies 5 deg south of str..imd says ridge line at 13.5 N..It shld move w-nw 4m now on….
Wish the system pushes the ridge tat is xtending south…
Sel good morning
wow system has developed well… btw ECMWF prediction looks the same moving towards TN….? ❓
Jus nw got up… Frns started texting me regarding the cyclone…. Seems lik ter was a flash news in sun news channel..
The answer to whether we will be getting some rains from this system remains to be seen. But today is easily the hottest and sultriest day in Chennai. Humidity is showing its effect on Chennaiites.
wat logic is tis? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_asia_078_precip_p24.gif
Dont believe gfs its a stupid model!
Have just uploaded the KMZ file provided by JTWC. Interesting track seem to move on a WWN direction.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-fewKfJv44oSkpnNWdzR3NzQ0k/edit
Going by this track if the system has to start taking a North East movement at some point of time to have a landfall beyond Odisha coast
I have changed the sharing settings, did not realise by default the setting was private.
Atlast wrf model picked up a ridge in sw coast tat is xtending twrds chennai ,… http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/img/WRFd02-ZWd500_72.gif
Sel
So what will happen? ❓
Jupi,u could c another in n.bay… So It wil push any one ridge tat is weak… Surprisingly wrf 27km res model din pick the ridge in southwest coast..
Sel
I mean where will the system move? ❓
http://indianweatherman.blogspot.com/2013/05/92b-drifted-s-e-and-now-showing-signs.html?m=1
50-50%… v wil wait til 11am tday update ..
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305100000
the circulation is getting tighter …
look at the warning pic……….
latest position.. 5.3N 93.2E
IMD’s cyclone warning
http://imdchennai.gov.in/cyclone.htm
gfs pushing the sys further NE..
who will believe gfs…..
I was.. but not now…………. changing so dynamically… its gud for short range……………….
kea, u forgot to add cloud top temperature sub-tab in kea.metsite..
link please
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm
Gfs sticking with the ridge tat is in s.china sea..
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/gsm/rain_3dayforecast.gif
LATEST CMC ::00 gmt fri ::
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
ITS STICKING WITH NORTH TN AND SOUTH AP !!
look at gfs’s prediction……………..
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
so its clear tat the system gonna travel til central bay and thn it depends on various factors at tat time…..
Ridge near kerala coast extending til tn not allowing the system to move west http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/gsm/wind500hpa_3dayforecast.gif
ctt -80
deadly water vapor……………
massive convection…………
Thr may be an update 4m jtwc at 11.30..
I think its 14.30
Looking at the sat image it looks like it has moved west…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-e-vis.htm
Convection at a steady increasing rate..Small islands around ther getting pounded…
This is the latest news from Dinamalar சென்னை: சென்னைக்கு 1,200 கி.மீ., தொலைவில் குறைந்த காற்றழுத்தம் உருவாகி இருப்பதால், அது வலுவடைந்து புயலாக உருவெடுக்கும் என எதிர்பார்க்கப்படுகிறது. இதனால் அடுத்த வாரம் தமிழ்நாட்டில், கனமழை பெய்ய வாய்ப்பு உள்ளதாக அறிவிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது.இந்த புயலுக்கு மகேசன் என பெயர் வைக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது. இந்த புயல் வலிமையை இழந்து 15 நாட்களுக்குள் தமிழகம் அல்லது ஆந்திரா கடற்கரையை கடக்கும் என எதிர்பார்க்கப்படுகிறது.
Looks like Dinamalar following Sel updates
OMG! just now cme in after getting fried and roasted outside.. 😡 😦
Home Breaking News
Breaking News
‘High’ chance of storm intensifying in Bay of Bengal
12 minutes ago , By Vinson Kurian | 0 comments
International weather models expect a persisting low pressure area in the Southeast Bay of Bengal to start intensifying during the next 24 hours.
The India Meteorological Department has already put out a watch for its strengthening as a ‘monsoon depression,’ just a couple of turns away from being declared a cyclone.
‘HIGH’ CHANCE
The US Navy traced the path traversed by the system as the parent cyclonic circulation from the Southwest Bay of Bengal to the Southeast where it is currently parked.
It has upgraded to ‘high’ chances of its intensification, and, to start with, appeared to suggest a west-northwestward movement into the East-central Bay of Bengal.
The point of landfall projected now ranges between the Odisha-West Bengal coasts in India to Bangladesh-Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal rim off the international border.
Earlier, the storm was forecast to start moving in from Southwest Bay of Bengal, prompting forecasters to suggest India’s East Coast (Andhra Pradesh-Odisha) as the landfall point.
STORM ALERT
The movement to the Southeast Bay happened later, and necessitated recalibration of the likely landfall point.
Meanwhile, a hazard warning analysis from the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has also indicated formation of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal over the next few days.
It suggested its northward movement from just East off Sri Lanka (which stands corrected to off the Sumatra Island since) to the Northeast Coast of India (Odisha-Gangetic West Bengal).
The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said the storm might run into a hostile vertical wind shear (sudden change in winds speeds with height) environment.
WIND SHEAR
High wind shear values lop the top off the storm tower (which extends km-high into the atmosphere) and weakens it, leading to its collapse and untimely death.
But the US agency forecast suggested that the vertical shear is more than made up by the low-level flows from the northern and southern semi-circles, allowing the storm to hold on.
High sea-surface temperatures are helping convection (evaporation, moisture formation and cloud-building) to flare up, leading to strengthening of the storm.
vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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So its official. High sea level surface temps and strong convection should hold the system in good stead. Even if it stays close to our shores, we can be assured of some good spells.
Yes.. Stuffy day.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR 10th MAY 2013
(Issued at 05.30 a.m. on 10th May 2013)
The low pressure area still persists in east of Sri Lanka and located about 800km to the east of Hambantota. Therefore, eastern and south-eastern sea areas beyond 300km from Hambantota experience strong winds, rough conditions and intermittent rain. Therefore fishing and naval community are kindly requested to be vigilant in their activities in these sea areas.
SWM will be early this time i guess. May be between may 23 to 27 it will set in. any one having this thought ?
Everybody is waiting for VK to start discussions about SWM 2013!!!
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305100600
😮
System moved SSE…
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013
an eye like feature has developed due to rapid intensification…
Wind speed 35 kts. Organised brilliantly. Intensfying by the minute:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305100600
LLCC well defined.
Click to access rsmc.pdf
Low pressure are has become well marked… likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 24hrs!
Sharp jump in energy and intensity scale. Rapid intensification is certain once it becomes a TS
Why is a western disturbance always strong enough to alter the course of an easterly and not vice versa?
This amount of vapour present will contribute to the huge size of Mahesan
yeah dash we miss him a lot. he is not around for while ?!!! is he real in the first place? i highly doubt that.:/
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
started tracking Invest 92B
92B invest is now 01B!!! 🙂 😮
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2013&MO=05&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=01B.ONE&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi but look at that wrong track! 😆
lol
Tropical Cyclone 01B
awesome circulation……………….
latest image of Tropical cyclone 01B
It looks deadly in the making
Ecmwf losing mahesan in midway…
sel
ecmwf says system vanishing somewhere in central bay…
Imd and jtwc wil throw an update at 2.30pm,..
All the models are inline with the northeastward movement.
link?
Run all the models..ECMWF has also joined in the list.Chance is high for northward movement as of now.
no ecmwf has not yet joined… just checked that now….
High in south TN and WD is resposible for movement.
ECMWF clearly showing the movement of system as a low presssure after 48 hours.
i didnt see any high over TN and WD cannot pull from a long distance…
I am not sure which one is having more impact to the system.
There is one over south india developing according to models.
Probability of storm moving north looks high.
moving north because of any ridge?
so this system is not for us??? 😦
when it comes to cyclones there is always a chance but as of now the chance of northward movement looks high when compared to movement towards TN and AP.
no will it affect us or just move north????
If it could move bit west then we could get rain and also depends on the intensity of the system.
Initial movement of storm will determine how close the system going to come towards east coast.
Jma bringing the system close twdrds sw bay before drifting NE…
depends on the initial movement.
sel
can u give me the details about the ridge…..