321 thoughts on “Mystery of Mahasen continues

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      Low-pressure area forms; storm may head to Bengal, Odisha
      8 hours ago , By Vinson Kurian | 0 comments

      A low-pressure area (‘low’) has formed over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has straightaway put under watch for intensification twice over to a monsoon depression over the next two days.
      RAIN OUTLOOK
      It has retained its outlook for rainfall activity to increase over South Peninsular India and also over the east coast of the country from Sunday.
      Rainfall activity would increase also over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the first port of call for the South-West monsoon, and adjoining sea areas.
      US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) too agreed with IMD’s outlook, and locating the brewing weather system in the Bay of Bengal system 657 km east of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
      The slightly easterly position is now expected to guide the storm towards Odisha/Gangetic West Bengal coast next week, if storm tracker projections are to be believed.
      MAY WEAKEN
      JTWC upgraded as ‘medium’ chances for its intensification, given deepening convection (cloud-building process) and better organisation.
      Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated up to 46 km/hr, and the system was under favourable conditions for further development.
      But it could slow down a bit and lose some strength on its approach to land since seas are cooler in North Bay of Bengal, compared to the ‘sizzling hot’ waters where it is currently located.
      ARABIAN SEA STORM?
      Overall, its current coordinates and projected path are more or less helpful for the onset of the South-West monsoon over the Andaman Islands over the next few days.
      What is even more encouraging for the monsoon is forecast of another weather system brewing in the west-central Arabian Sea.
      This is expected to happen 10-12 days from now, after the Bay storm blows over. This will also present a tricky situation in so far as its track for onward movement is concerned.
      Early forecasts say it might just help precipitate the monsoon over Kerala, but the storm track was as yet not clear.
      vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

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  1. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DECREASED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081812Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS A WEAKENED LLCC WITH CYCLONIC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSUREIS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW

  2. Note:system is 5 degree south of str… Current position 6.2 so the ridge lies sum wher approximately 12N .. Tis cant show any poleward movement for now..

    • some of the models, says only DD is possible that too possible after friday only and makes landfall in north-central bay.

      whats ur opinion se?

  3. Its really dissappointing to the current development status of our expected system – the biggest hope for us in summer

    • I think MAWeatherboy have answered for that. He mentioned in one of the comments in his blog that
      “he don’t have much knowlege with Bay system and he is waiting for the start of Altantic Hurrican season which he has more interest”

  4. Lets be positive.

    Mahasen will happen, if not in May then surely sometime in 2013. If not in BOB, then surely in Arabian sea. If it does not dissipate in sea, then surely it will make landfall in Indian subcontinent or Arab coast or it could disappear to Africa.

    Dont lose hope, cyclones will come.

  5. yes…if imd chennai particularly ramanan sir followedus, he mite had a big laugh…v never expected tis one to shift to se bay…initial forecast showed tis one in s.bay with cat 2 storm.. anyway nature has its own way….as a weather n a cyclone enthusiastic v got excited tat too i got overexcited..

  6. Sel
    according to ecmwf mumbai ridge is expected to weaken that’s why system is brought back to sw bay and hits TN so this is gr8 news for us! 😎

  7. ridge will b extending east ,and slowly make a move twrds eastern part of our country… tis is seen in most models including wrf models ,gfs is the exception …. lets see

  8. @Selva
    Forget about Mahasen for a few sec. Let me know when will the peak summer begin for Chennai. More than the cyclone I am eagerly waiting for the 40’s.

  9. LATEST JTWC FORCST :

    THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 90.0E,
    IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
    6.2N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
    ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
    DECREASED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081812Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS A
    WEAKENED LLCC WITH CYCLONIC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    HOWEVER THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN ENHANCED WATER
    VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES
    CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
    KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB.
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

  10. Highest temp recorded in Nunga until May 9th

    2013 – 37.4 (where is Mahasen??)
    2012 – 40.2
    2011 – 41.7
    2010 – 37.4 (Laia year)
    2009 – 37.9
    2008 – 41.8
    2007 – 42.8
    2006 – 42.1
    2005 – 38.3

    Selva 37.4 is common

  11. Kea, we desperately need Mahasen to pull all our moisture to NE bay to get 40+ readings..keeping fingers crossed..but this Iron team is adamant..they want this summer to be spoiled 😦

    😆

  12. Jon,

    Maddy is the cloud expert..he only used to talk about hook echo, mike echo, speaker echo, etc. 😀

    Hey..even our jupi is a great cloud watcher..he once predicted an LP just by seeing a Mackeral Sky at night during last winter..(and got unbelievable number of thumbs down 😆 )

  13. The convection started to build up for the past few hours signifying the intensification of the system.Shear is very low in south east bay and the system is drifting towards that area which is a good sign.It could organize rapidly when it reaches there.

  14. Cyclone Mahasen update:

    The system will intensify into Mahasen on Friday and by Saturday it would start its approach towards Chennai.
    Good progress made on Saturday night/Sunday morning, but by noon time its directly East of Chennai.

    Kea bloggers hopeful it will turn directly East. Dashman will order his boats.

    By Sunday night it had gone slightly above 13.0N, all hopes shattered. But our Ironman confident it will change direction.

    Believe it or not, it moved South- west and headed towards Chennai. IMD starts sending warning signals. Cyclone expected to cross between Mahabalipuram and Marina beach by Tuesday midnight.

    But nobody took into account the great Chennai ridge, it didn’t allow the cyclone to enter Chennai in the summer months. It sent it away hundred KMS from a potential landfall.

    cyclone Mahasen made landfall over N. Andhra on Thursday

  15. Guys,

    How many of u have informed abt Mahasen to relatives n friends? Please share ur embarassing experiences here 😀

    Adambakkam Senthil has already shared his exp 😆

    • I was active during the Nilam period, as somebody who is not an expert there was not much I could add in terms of value to the blog so have been a silent observer since then.

  16. the hpa over arabian sea is whats making gfs take a u-turn ….
    till then when the hpa was over andhra and orisa it was movin to tn , hpa shifted to mayanmar and disappeared and hpa forms over arabian sea … tilting mahesan towards mayanmar !

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=wi50&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

    i thing if the system had developed a bit more faster then the probability to strike tn – ap would have been better …

    ?

  17. everyone here.. if tis system intensifies and get unsheared tis will make a landfall below s.ap …80% possiblity of it.. but if it get sheared before nearing TN then no way it will be drifted twrds N-N.EAST…

    • shear will decrease as the system moves n-w … so hope it forms east central bay , thats where shear is quiet less as of now … even south east corner has less of shear … all depends where it organises and with what speed …

  18. sel The track its going to take will decide the fate of the system.If it comes along Tamilnadu coast we will get something out of it.if it comes through the sea i mean from east bay instead of south we wont get anything. It will come close to Chennai then it will move away directly to Myanmar. The wind shear will spoil the party the chances are very slim i think. 😦

  19. The system has to take a U turn here after and move direct west rather north west or north. will it happen? good news is that stupid 94s has moved away and 92b somehow managed to detach itself and its free to move on its own. the bad news is, the damage was already done.

  20. Why do they link weather models which are absolutely wrong

    IMD GFS weather forecast for meenambakkam

    Friday – 43
    Saturday – 45
    Sunday – 42

    I am talking about the temperature here

  21. Kea,

    Luks like Iron Men team is getting bolstered by the possibility of the system getting closer to Chennai due to ridges..wat to do now? We have to form a secret huddle and discuss the next steps!!!

  22. All ardent fellowmen, let’s not get carried away by this system. The heat is already belting us and the real cause of worry the impact of this system on Chennai?
    Will it cause the temperature to soar to much higher levels even if is not going to give rains to Chennai?

  23. IMD Forecast,

    The  low pressure  area  over  southeast Bay of Bengal  and neighbourhood with associated  upper  air
    cyclonic circulation extending upto mid­tropospheric levels persists. Ocean­atmospheric conditions suggests
    that the system may concentrate into a depression during next 1­2 days.

    The trough from Vidarbha to south Tamilnadu across interior Karnataka in lower levels persists.  Another trough extends from east Uttar Pradesh to east Assam across Bihar and Sub­Himalayan West Bengal &
    Sikkim. 

  24. YE Raj of IMD says it will intensify into super cyclone and cross orissa coast on 16th.

    Astrologer says, it will lose intensity and cross ap coast on 15th.

    • going by the current position, it seems 92B has lot of love towards his partner in the Southern Hemisphere

    • Is it possible to skip the name mahesan…It takes lot of time to show its kindness to the TN like The Lord shiva to saints hoping of some power from him

  25. interesting

    The planetary positions clearly show that the influence of one of the planets on the Sun will reduce after May 15. So we should get good rainfall on May 15. The predicted cyclone might lose its steam and make landfall near Andhra Pradesh coast,” said Ramachandran, who added that unlike Cyclone Thane, which was more wind- based system, the expected cyclone ‘Mahasen’ would bring more rains to TN and more wind to Andhra Pradesh

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