422 thoughts on “Wait continues for Cyclone Mahasen

  1. Yesterday evening I was mentioning about the system moving further South which seems to be the case with the latest updates. I feel the system might be one more addition to the stillborns’ which Mahasen seems to be fond of. I am no expert so mine is purely a gut feel.

  2. ABIO10 PGTW 092130
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
    /REISSUED/092130Z-101800ZMAY2013//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZMAY2013//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 93.3E,
    IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
    OF BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS
    FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091720Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS AN
    ELONGATED LLCC WITH CYCLONIC WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND A STRONGER
    GRADIENT FLOW (30 TO 35 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
    CIRCULATION IS ALSO IDENTIFIED IN THE ANIMATED DERIVED TOTAL
    PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS
    INCREASING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE
    ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
    28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
    20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
    1005 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
    OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
    CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
    (1) AT 091800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WAS LOCATED
    NEAR 8.1S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM EASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND
    HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING
    TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO A
    MEDIUM.//

  3. It has shown an impressive organization in-spite of not so good atmospheric conditions.All the other conditions remain s very good except for the shear.It would have exploded with these set of conditions like High SST ,good outflow but unfortunately shear remains a problem throughout the forecast.

  4. System slowly getting more influence 4m Anticyclone over vietnam …. Actually the culprit is slowly xtending near s.eastern arb sea near kerala going to push the system away 4m TN as per gfs….

  5. The system has moved to a more traditional starting point of BOB cyclones. It looks highly unlikely it would come lower than Machilpatnam. Looks like Chennai would have to be happy with any left overs.

  6. Hi guys, i have reached chennai after a long drive from Kodai

    Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am in Karnataka

    min 30 mm

    Hira 138
    Kardani 117
    Gudura 115
    Thippasandra 100
    Marikunte 94
    Chitradurga 86
    Damavannahalli 86
    Malandur 71
    Hireguntanur 63
    Gangavathi 62
    Belvatgi 60
    Badami 59
    Huluguru 59
    Parasurampur 58
    Kamalapura 57
    Sugur 53
    Hippargi 52
    Rantur 52
    Hippargi 51
    Venkatagiri 51
    Attigundi 50
    Belenahalli 49
    B Durga 48
    Oddarahatti 48
    Chikkamadanur 47
    Yedoni 47
    Hospet 46
    Ubrani 45
    Challakere 45
    Guledgudd 44
    Ajjampura 43
    Irrakalagada 42
    Nidige 42
    Giriyapura 41
    Balehonnur 40
    Hungund 40
    Mundwad 38
    Holalkere 38
    Talaku 37
    Basarikatte 36
    Bankapur 36
    Gunjahalli 36
    Nidagal 36
    Bukkambudi 35
    Sandur 34
    Harugeri. 33
    Gudur 32
    Turuvanur 32
    Hedigonda 32
    Walmi 31
    Maski 31
    Huniseghatta 31
    Naribole 31
    Hirewankalakunta 30
    kaginele 30
    Hagaribommanahalli 30
    Navalgund 30
    Kurkunda 30
    Kunimellahalli 30
    Talya 30

    • That looks fantastic. Odisha better be ready 1999 could repeat itself. Ominously this is not very far away from the starting point of 1991 Bangladesh super cyclone.

  7. I just love the sat image. Though it doesn’t look as organized as 94S, ours look wonderful. Hope it can fight all anticyclones and atleast come closer to Chennai.

  8. If the 92B has moved as per the initial forecast, TN would have got bountiful rains…but 94s spoils all the party and dragged the 92B to the exteme south-east and this delay have cost us more

  9. 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
    THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
    OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
    AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
    INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
    SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
    93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
    BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
    CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
    DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
    UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
    SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
    AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
    WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
    LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
    LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

  10. Whatever happened to the astrologers forecast – Ramachandran that we will have a cyclonic storm on 15th May ?

  11. Models outlook for Mahesan
    ==========================

    CMC – North of Chennai
    ————————

    NavyGEM (Erstwhile Nogaps) – Bangladesh as a Very Severe / Super Cyclone
    —————————

    GFS – Burma
    —————

    ECMWF – Not picking up cyclone after 3 days
    ——————–

    NCMWRF T574 model – Bangladesh
    —————————-
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-18.htm

    NCMWRF Unified model – Tamil Nadu
    —————————-
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/Unified-model/forecast/UM_CH-16.htm

    GEFS – Orissa
    —————–
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/GEFS/GEFS_MSLP_CH-08.htm

    Taiwan model – Not sure as only 4 days forecast available
    —————-

    Thailand model – Not sure as only 4 days forecast available
    —————-

    BBC – Not sure as only 4 days forecast available
    ————————

    UKMO – Burma
    ———————

    JMA – Orissa
    —————–

    Vagaries of Weather – Orissa / West Bengal
    ——————–

  12. Gfs says Ther is a anticyclone 4m vietnam going to guide twrds north…jtwc says system lies 5 deg south of str..imd says ridge line at 13.5 N..It shld move w-nw 4m now on….

  13. Jus nw got up… Frns started texting me regarding the cyclone…. Seems lik ter was a flash news in sun news channel..

  14. The answer to whether we will be getting some rains from this system remains to be seen. But today is easily the hottest and sultriest day in Chennai. Humidity is showing its effect on Chennaiites.

  15. This is the latest news from Dinamalar சென்னை: சென்னைக்கு 1,200 கி.மீ., தொலைவில் குறைந்த காற்றழுத்தம் உருவாகி இருப்பதால், அது வலுவடைந்து புயலாக உருவெடுக்கும் என எதிர்பார்க்கப்படுகிறது. இதனால் அடுத்த வாரம் தமிழ்நாட்டில், கனமழை பெய்ய வாய்ப்பு உள்ளதாக அறிவிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது.இந்த புயலுக்கு மகேசன் என பெயர் வைக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது. இந்த புயல் வலிமையை இழந்து 15 நாட்களுக்குள் தமிழகம் அல்லது ஆந்திரா கடற்கரையை கடக்கும் என எதிர்பார்க்கப்படுகிறது.

    • Home Breaking News
      Breaking News
      ‘High’ chance of storm intensifying in Bay of Bengal
      12 minutes ago , By Vinson Kurian | 0 comments
      International weather models expect a persisting low pressure area in the Southeast Bay of Bengal to start intensifying during the next 24 hours.
      The India Meteorological Department has already put out a watch for its strengthening as a ‘monsoon depression,’ just a couple of turns away from being declared a cyclone.
      ‘HIGH’ CHANCE
      The US Navy traced the path traversed by the system as the parent cyclonic circulation from the Southwest Bay of Bengal to the Southeast where it is currently parked.
      It has upgraded to ‘high’ chances of its intensification, and, to start with, appeared to suggest a west-northwestward movement into the East-central Bay of Bengal.
      The point of landfall projected now ranges between the Odisha-West Bengal coasts in India to Bangladesh-Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal rim off the international border.
      Earlier, the storm was forecast to start moving in from Southwest Bay of Bengal, prompting forecasters to suggest India’s East Coast (Andhra Pradesh-Odisha) as the landfall point.
      STORM ALERT
      The movement to the Southeast Bay happened later, and necessitated recalibration of the likely landfall point.
      Meanwhile, a hazard warning analysis from the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has also indicated formation of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal over the next few days.
      It suggested its northward movement from just East off Sri Lanka (which stands corrected to off the Sumatra Island since) to the Northeast Coast of India (Odisha-Gangetic West Bengal).
      The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said the storm might run into a hostile vertical wind shear (sudden change in winds speeds with height) environment.
      WIND SHEAR
      High wind shear values lop the top off the storm tower (which extends km-high into the atmosphere) and weakens it, leading to its collapse and untimely death.
      But the US agency forecast suggested that the vertical shear is more than made up by the low-level flows from the northern and southern semi-circles, allowing the storm to hold on.
      High sea-surface temperatures are helping convection (evaporation, moisture formation and cloud-building) to flare up, leading to strengthening of the storm.
      vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

      Related topics
      weather , forecast , weather news
      Comments (0)

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      • So its official. High sea level surface temps and strong convection should hold the system in good stead. Even if it stays close to our shores, we can be assured of some good spells.

  16. WEATHER FORECAST FOR 10th MAY 2013

    (Issued at 05.30 a.m. on 10th May 2013)

    The low pressure area still persists in east of Sri Lanka and located about 800km to the east of Hambantota. Therefore, eastern and south-eastern sea areas beyond 300km from Hambantota experience strong winds, rough conditions and intermittent rain. Therefore fishing and naval community are kindly requested to be vigilant in their activities in these sea areas.

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