@Kea, yes it is..woke up to see my fav being shocked by Baby Fed…He is on song these days and he almost knocked out Rafa in the second round of Monte Carlo few weeks back..Took a set out of the clay king..Same time it is a good wake up call for Novak and expecting him to come back strongly in Rome masters and RG..lets see..Rafa fans will be doubly happy at the exit of Novak..
One thing is for sure. #1 ranking guaranteed for Rafa at year end. He has ZERO points to defend from Wimbledon upto Aus Open.
Hope Fed can take injury time out and come back in Jan.
@ Kea, I was a big fan of RF till the day he won the French Open in 09..Im still a lover of his playing style..Like our Sachin, I feel he has achieved everything a sportsman can dream of..Got nothing to prove and a player like RF should not be hanging around and retire as World No 5 or 6 …He has already hinted of being choosy abt tournaments..Points wise, yes , Rafa has got nothing to defend..but if he loses midway in RG or Wimby , it would be b the same story as last year..
Any hope for Mahasen to attack us. Dashman’s investment going for a waste.
92B virtually escaping 4m 94s… intense convection seen .. Shear tendency map shows high shear in s-bay. But jtwc says 5-10knts of shear in the center… Crazy
@Selvanfun…Kea must be really happy to have guys like you in this blog ..Your passion, Zeal, zest and needless to say the eternal hope of positive expectations really facinates me..Kudos..Karthikstrom..you too…
the area of convection previously located near 5.7n 86.0e is
now located near 6.4n 86.0e, approximately 355 nm east of colombo, sri
lanka. animated infrared satellite imagery shows formative banding has
wrapped tighter into the low level circulation center (llcc).
additionally, convective bands have deepened significantly over the
past 12 hours. upper level analysis indicates the system is under a
ridge axis in an area of low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear and
excellent poleward outflow. based on recent scatterometry passes, the
maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. in view of
the deepening convection and better organization of the system, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within
the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
Upgraded to medium ,tats gud to c… Jtwc myte be monitoring realtime conditions.. Tis is intensifying so upper level anticyclone wil be back twrds the LLC.
Hi all good morning
The system is developing quickly and model position is very wrong so dont get upset… the will get it right soon and it will hit TN for sure! 🙂
expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/05/07/basis18/swas/prec/13051412_0718.gif gfs says it will form s-e , move n-w initally and then move n-e , skirting the pheriphery of indian coastline .
expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/07/basis12/swas/prec/13051218_0712.gif i think that cmc is doing a better job than any other model . Check it out …
Triangular love in the Indian ocean..Film name..Love in Ocean waters ..Starring 91B, 92B and 94S..Who will meet their hero in N.TN..Few Villians in the form of Orissa, Bangladesh n Sumatra..Hope we bloggers do not become Comedians of this mega serial cum Motion Picture..
An upper air cyclonic circulation lover central Parts of south Bay of Bengal extending upto Mid
Tropospheric levels persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Bay of Bengal
during next 48 hours
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305080000 nice wind formation , the circulation is getting more organised !
92b has intensified but still there are lot of convection down south more than the center.The convection down south is moving towards 94S.Most of the energy is being feed to the thunderstorms south of the system resulting in less energy for 92b.The system is under low shear and high SST which should have caused it to intensify rapidly but the rate of intensification is considerably slow due to 94S.94S is moving southward which will result in intensification of 92B.its still not clear where the depression will form but for the past few hours the low pressure is moving eastwards as expected by GFS and NAVGEM.
nothing can be said about this system till it forms.
if it forms in south bay then TN will have better chance of getting rainfall from this system.If it forms in south east then chance is less comparitively.
LATEST FORECAST MAY 8, 2013, 4.40 AM UTC (10.10 AM IST)
How the mighty have fallen in the last few days! Once forecast models hinted at a massive cyclone called MAHASEN. Today they say a piddly little low pressure will form in Bay of Bengal around May 10, 2013.
It (may turn into a depression) will potter around the Bay of Bengal for 4-5 days and then bring some rains in Myanmar on May 15, 2013.
Mahasen will never grow strong enough to deserve a name.
vinodh
normally ecmwf wont show heat lows over TN since there is a system over bay thats making landfall over pondi as a LPA/dep…
jupijove, its not bay system its a minor local circulation which is no way connected to our system.
No, its not the system since ECMWF not picking significant system it wont be visible in this map.It would be visible in surface wind and lower wind pattern map. is there any link for it?
vinodh no thats the system since ecmwf has no wind chart….
IMD sat bulletin 0600UTC
SALIENT FEATURES:
VORTEX OVER BAY OF BENGAL ADJ INDIAN OCEAN CENTERED WITH IN HALF A
DEG OF LAT 5.0N/88.5E (.) INTENSITY T1.0(.) ASSTD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER
AREA BET LAT EQ TO 8.5N LONG 83.0E TO93.5E (.) MICROWAVE IMAGERY 0F 08/00020
UTC OF TRMM SUGGESTS THE CENTER AT 6.0N/88.5E (.) WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME
IS AROUND 20 KTS (.) CHANCES FOR FORMATION OF DEPRESSION WITHIN NEXT 6
HOURS ARE LESS (.)
its the official data from SSMI we cannot question it.
There will be a slight difference but more or less the same area.
s tat position maps to S bay. hope it doesnt move more toawrds e
this is IMD’s bulletin…
it must be right . What is happening here ? So much movement in 6 hrs ?? Not gud .
intense thunderstorms are forming to the south of the system.its not good for the system.
The cyclone would most likely develop but whether it will benefit TN or not is still a long shot. guys in our blog are overhyped the impact of system over TN just by looking GFS.It may have some impact over TN or it may not but cyclone is likely to develop.
The system is expected to persist without intensifying over South Bay for next 2 days !
COLA, IMD and NOGAPS models expects that the system will start intensifying from 10-May over S-S-E Bay.
According to COLA, From 11-May, the system is expected to be a Depression and expects to track in N-N-W direction into Bay.
While NOGAPS model suggests that the system will attain Depression strength on 11-May over S-S-E Bay and then track N-N-W and then move N-E.
The system is expected to track towards Myanmar or Bangladesh ! and this is good for Bay wing of South West Monsoon.
By 13-May-2013, the South West Monsoon is expected to reach Southern Andaman Islands.
kea,models will change their forecast since the weather system surrounding the 92b is not behaving as expected.The low pressure would intensify into a cyclone and move in a NW direction.Impact could be in any place in east coast.
Nilam made landfall close to chennai but it did not have any severe thunderstorm to cause considerable impact during landfall.For the past few years the frequency of cyclone movement towards TN have increased.
This trend was there in 80’s where many systems impacted TN but in late 90’s and 00’s it has gone down but it seems to be picking up again.
KeaWeather Archives 
Skymet predicts LP will form in 2 or 3 days and eventually develop as cyclone in Bay.
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/VjpKRNHyi3QMsBXeMOczBJ/Weather–Low-pressure-area-in-Bay-of-Bengal-may-result-in-a.html
good development happening to both 94S and 92B… should get some good info by tomorrow evening.
94S is pulling water vapour all the way from australia, not much impact on 92B ..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/wvw.htm
3.30am update was gud with increase in both conv,diverg n vorticity…
*2.30am update.
cmc http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/07/basis12/swas/prec/13051312_0712.gif
Nogaps pulling away d systemhttp://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nogaps/2013/05/07/basis12/swas/prec/13051312_0712.gif
5.30am http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20130508.0000.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.92BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-61N-861E.100pc.jpg
Here cmes jtwc AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E, \par
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED\par
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH ENHANCEDCONVECTION \par
FEEDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL \par
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW \par
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.BASED ON \par
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDSARE \par
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO \par
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FORTHE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT\par
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW
Yay. JTWC vandhachu.
not gud at the moment
92B starting to organise well. Rapid convection seen.
JTWC- System in a region of low vertical wind shear 5-10 knots and has excellent poleward outflow.
also- Ill- defined low level circulation center.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=150&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= latst gfs 18 gmt not good for TN
GFS still initiating cyclone formation around Sumatra. Haiyo.
Convergence increasing,so thr shld b hvy cloud formation
MAweatherboy1 replied to the invites:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MAweatherboy1/comment.html?entrynum=65#commenttop
@Karthik-Who is Cyclone freak? May i know..is he under diff name there in wunder blog?
Surely someone from our blog. Not sure who though. It might be Selva?
Selva? who selvanfun or Japan Raijin?
Selvanfun, he only introduced us that blog. But it is not him either.
koplichifying http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20130508.0032.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.92BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-64N-866E.100pc.jpg
Yes. Very intense convection.
Is that small pin like eye is seen ?
Circulation looking much better. Symmetry starting to develop.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305080000
@Novak
Its shocking
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/22443925
@Kea, yes it is..woke up to see my fav being shocked by Baby Fed…He is on song these days and he almost knocked out Rafa in the second round of Monte Carlo few weeks back..Took a set out of the clay king..Same time it is a good wake up call for Novak and expecting him to come back strongly in Rome masters and RG..lets see..Rafa fans will be doubly happy at the exit of Novak..
One thing is for sure. #1 ranking guaranteed for Rafa at year end. He has ZERO points to defend from Wimbledon upto Aus Open.
Hope Fed can take injury time out and come back in Jan.
@ Kea, I was a big fan of RF till the day he won the French Open in 09..Im still a lover of his playing style..Like our Sachin, I feel he has achieved everything a sportsman can dream of..Got nothing to prove and a player like RF should not be hanging around and retire as World No 5 or 6 …He has already hinted of being choosy abt tournaments..Points wise, yes , Rafa has got nothing to defend..but if he loses midway in RG or Wimby , it would be b the same story as last year..
Any hope for Mahasen to attack us. Dashman’s investment going for a waste.
Moisture- Abundant.
Karthik, no.. I am nt the one in wunderblog.
Oh.. Then must be Kea.
Karthick
No kea has blogged in the following name
ehsank78
92B virtually escaping 4m 94s… intense convection seen .. Shear tendency map shows high shear in s-bay. But jtwc says 5-10knts of shear in the center… Crazy
Lol. The convection seen supports JTWC’s statement.
Yes…
@Selvanfun…Kea must be really happy to have guys like you in this blog ..Your passion, Zeal, zest and needless to say the eternal hope of positive expectations really facinates me..Kudos..Karthikstrom..you too…
the area of convection previously located near 5.7n 86.0e is
now located near 6.4n 86.0e, approximately 355 nm east of colombo, sri
lanka. animated infrared satellite imagery shows formative banding has
wrapped tighter into the low level circulation center (llcc).
additionally, convective bands have deepened significantly over the
past 12 hours. upper level analysis indicates the system is under a
ridge axis in an area of low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear and
excellent poleward outflow. based on recent scatterometry passes, the
maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. in view of
the deepening convection and better organization of the system, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within
the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
MEDIUM!
Intensifying suddenly!
Its headed north
Models have got the current position off. The track should change with the next update. Moreover the ridge up north is still strong.
Convective bands have deepened over the past 12 hours. Yup, bands can already be seen.
Intensity climb:
@Novak, read my reply below
Latest Intensity-25
Cyclonefreak in MAWeatherBoy1’s blog cannot be kea
He had blogged in the following name
ehsank78
He created his WU only 3 days ago. Its probably someone from here, created after reading his blog
Power of bay : 92B pulling 91B 4m arb sea.. n 92B Size is massive than 94 S…
Your estimation of the track?
Upgraded to medium ,tats gud to c… Jtwc myte be monitoring realtime conditions.. Tis is intensifying so upper level anticyclone wil be back twrds the LLC.
is wind is only factor will make patch of the system ? or another factors also there ?
Karthik, dnt knw wich ridge is going to steer.. Hpa is near mumbai, orissa n myanmar… Ethu ne therinja nan clear ah solliduvaen….
Hmmm. Orey ridge-ah iruku enga pathalum. Only time will tell..
Hi all good morning
The system is developing quickly and model position is very wrong so dont get upset… the will get it right soon and it will hit TN for sure! 🙂
94S pulling clouds from 92B.
cloud pulling
91B->92B->94S
@kea, why tis aarva kolaaru?? wat wil happen if it moves towards TN?? 😛
Jon
that’s gonna happen soon! 😛
Lol. 😀
Avaru varuthunu sonnathan aachiryam.
gfs has been way off track in marking the circulation. its more to the west
Very much to the west. Not even partially close.
yea
any latest update on the current intensity of 92B?
6.4N 86.0E
Now, if the next update also shows this system near sumatra, then it’s of no use. We’ll be left on our own.
very true … Hope the models go back on track .
This means end of story? ❓
Intensity 25knts ,mslp -1004mb…
current core pressure 1004 … I hope jtwc gives a tcfa soon … Then we will know its posotion and track better …
OMG … Power shutdown in mugappair !!!! Im a dead man ! Iksi ?
OMG … Power shutdown in mugappair !!!! Im a dead man ! Eksi ?
92B moving north : from ” 5.8N & 86E” to “6.4N and 86E” .
gfs sticks to its forecast- cyclone forming near banda aceh
thala ezhuthu.
when and how many times does jtwc uptate ?
expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/05/07/basis18/swas/prec/13051412_0718.gif gfs says it will form s-e , move n-w initally and then move n-e , skirting the pheriphery of indian coastline .
There is an error/glitch in gfs model that’s why it hasn’t been able to identify the llcc…
a major glitch !
the only trustworthy source – JTWC !
Yes!!!!!
92B throwing up clouds by the minute.Intense acitivity. 94S pulling from 92B.
awesome weather conditions in bangalore now.
max 23’c ..cloudy since morning..
Enjoy…its gonna be a scorcher here in Chennai today.
Jma shows Cyclone forming in s-sc bay…
Sel
Look at the latest gfs model… I think its duns because it shows heavy rain near sumatra and light rain in switch bay…. 😆
*sw bay
could you post the link pls .
expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/07/basis12/swas/prec/13051218_0712.gif i think that cmc is doing a better job than any other model . Check it out …
Probably a mapping mistake with the gfs.
must be …
Triangular love in the Indian ocean..Film name..Love in Ocean waters ..Starring 91B, 92B and 94S..Who will meet their hero in N.TN..Few Villians in the form of Orissa, Bangladesh n Sumatra..Hope we bloggers do not become Comedians of this mega serial cum Motion Picture..
haha
still IMD says 48hrs
An upper air cyclonic circulation lover central Parts of south Bay of Bengal extending upto Mid
Tropospheric levels persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Bay of Bengal
during next 48 hours
even NAVGEM syas sumatra formation and ne movent :0
yeah there is a major error there!!! 😦
only cmc is doing ok .
yup… and ecmwf is also ok….
link please !
totally nonsense…
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=192&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
rofl http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2013-05-08_07_UpperWind850.jpg
lolz there is an anticyclone over WC BOB which will not allow any northerly movement at all!!! 😆
so it will dissipate on its own this time
no… i mean the gfs position is incorrect…
Camera fixed to follow Mahasen in full fury
http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?tag=bay-of-bengal
expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/07/basis12/swas/prec/13051312_0712.gif
System wnt be allowed to move north unless the ridge near orissa weakens….
Jma is in favour of us.. As per the model,Ridge in orissa wil b dominant…
V badly need these words 4m jtwc ” system lies just south of the ridge,providing fav outflow”….
Moved east..
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305080000 nice wind formation , the circulation is getting more organised !
Selva is the system weakening sat image La appadi than theriyathu?
I read somewhere the ridge near Orissa will start to weaken by 11th
From where??? ❓ proof?
Kea, u cant fool jupi easily..show him the proof..c’mon 😀
If it moves further east-s.east… Steering ridge wil b 4m upper thailand tat wil drag the system twrds wb,bangla..
Sel
will move further east or will it move west from now on?
Tats wat Gfs expecting it .
Tis is wat Gfs expecting http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/05/07/basis18/swas/wi50/13051212_0718.gif
Rain/thundershowers would occur at one or two places over extreme south peninsular India
and increase from 12th onwards.
Sel
I think its a relocation of llcc because it cant move 3 degrees rapidly…
what is the current position?
92b has intensified but still there are lot of convection down south more than the center.The convection down south is moving towards 94S.Most of the energy is being feed to the thunderstorms south of the system resulting in less energy for 92b.The system is under low shear and high SST which should have caused it to intensify rapidly but the rate of intensification is considerably slow due to 94S.94S is moving southward which will result in intensification of 92B.its still not clear where the depression will form but for the past few hours the low pressure is moving eastwards as expected by GFS and NAVGEM.
thats going to make the conditions worse in TN this summer if it moves eastwards
nope its not expected to move eastwards just small drifting.Once it develops it will move in NW direction.
It seems, hopes are getting slimmer for TN as the time passes…lot of
contradications between the models.
When can we expect a gud news?
ECMWF is yet to pick the storm..Thats surpising.
yes……..
lat cmc forecast
its the expecting system to develop from the curent position thats the reason its bring the storm to north TN /south AP coast.
any positives? i couldn’t able to view the link from my office PC…page is displaying as some unrecognized characters
nothing can be said about this system till it forms.
if it forms in south bay then TN will have better chance of getting rainfall from this system.If it forms in south east then chance is less comparitively.
shear increasing…………….
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/indian-ocean-real-time/
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_850wind.htm
Cross Orissa ?
as gfs predicted, heavy circulation near sumatra..
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/
Vorticity deepening slightly..
to develop in few days and head northwards……..
Again halwa thaana?
gfs shows circulation close to banda aceh. i dnt think its happening there
still far away from sumatra
water vapor looking gud at the moment…….
LATEST FORECAST MAY 8, 2013, 4.40 AM UTC (10.10 AM IST)
How the mighty have fallen in the last few days! Once forecast models hinted at a massive cyclone called MAHASEN. Today they say a piddly little low pressure will form in Bay of Bengal around May 10, 2013.
It (may turn into a depression) will potter around the Bay of Bengal for 4-5 days and then bring some rains in Myanmar on May 15, 2013.
Mahasen will never grow strong enough to deserve a name.
Our system have seen many villians in the form of shear, hpa and have lost in the fight in the past
This time, when all the above villians are forecasted to be dummy, a new villian from the Southern hemisphere is spoiling our expectations
Latest ecmwf update says that the system will cross cuddalore…
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013050800!!/
i cant find it
Jon
see the letter L over coastal TN
its a surface low would have formed due to heat.
vinodh
normally ecmwf wont show heat lows over TN since there is a system over bay thats making landfall over pondi as a LPA/dep…
jupijove, its not bay system its a minor local circulation which is no way connected to our system.
No, its not the system since ECMWF not picking significant system it wont be visible in this map.It would be visible in surface wind and lower wind pattern map. is there any link for it?
vinodh no thats the system since ecmwf has no wind chart….
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?SIZE=Thumb&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=io&ATCF_YR=1&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20130508.0600.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.92BINVEST.25kts-1004mb-56N-894E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=io921&ATCF_DIR=1&ACTIVES=13-IO-92B.INVEST,13-SHEM-94S.INVEST&MO=MAY&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2013&YR=13&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=92B.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/94S.INVEST/tpw/microvap&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=vis&PRODUCT=vis&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_zoom&PROD=vis
Is this correct?
5.6N 89.4E
now its 5.9N 89.2E…
IMD sat bulletin 0600UTC
SALIENT FEATURES:
VORTEX OVER BAY OF BENGAL ADJ INDIAN OCEAN CENTERED WITH IN HALF A
DEG OF LAT 5.0N/88.5E (.) INTENSITY T1.0(.) ASSTD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER
AREA BET LAT EQ TO 8.5N LONG 83.0E TO93.5E (.) MICROWAVE IMAGERY 0F 08/00020
UTC OF TRMM SUGGESTS THE CENTER AT 6.0N/88.5E (.) WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME
IS AROUND 20 KTS (.) CHANCES FOR FORMATION OF DEPRESSION WITHIN NEXT 6
HOURS ARE LESS (.)
its the official data from SSMI we cannot question it.
There will be a slight difference but more or less the same area.
s tat position maps to S bay. hope it doesnt move more toawrds e
this is IMD’s bulletin…
it must be right . What is happening here ? So much movement in 6 hrs ?? Not gud .
intense thunderstorms are forming to the south of the system.its not good for the system.
INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS OF
8th May 2013
· A low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal. Associated
upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels.
for those who still have belief in Mahasen
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropics-ready-to-ignite-1/11912370
IMD cyclone page says dep likely in 48hrs…
Click to access rsmc.pdf
Have already lost the hope, if something happens then it is a miracle
There is a good chance of cyclone development.conditions are pretty much favorable.
lat nogaps shows system wil form far to the west away from sumatra
no jon nogaps saying the same thing again and again froming near sumatra… http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nogaps/2013/05/08/basis00/swas/prec/13051000_0800.gif
Sel, Jupi and Vinodh – Iron Men 3 😆
The day is not far away when they will close “Saravedi Team” and join “Bussvaanam Team” 😀
lol 😀 jupi is angry on kea
The cyclone would most likely develop but whether it will benefit TN or not is still a long shot. guys in our blog are overhyped the impact of system over TN just by looking GFS.It may have some impact over TN or it may not but cyclone is likely to develop.
The system is expected to persist without intensifying over South Bay for next 2 days !
COLA, IMD and NOGAPS models expects that the system will start intensifying from 10-May over S-S-E Bay.
According to COLA, From 11-May, the system is expected to be a Depression and expects to track in N-N-W direction into Bay.
While NOGAPS model suggests that the system will attain Depression strength on 11-May over S-S-E Bay and then track N-N-W and then move N-E.
The system is expected to track towards Myanmar or Bangladesh ! and this is good for Bay wing of South West Monsoon.
By 13-May-2013, the South West Monsoon is expected to reach Southern Andaman Islands.
– Source INDIANWEATHERMAN
then whats this…. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
kea,models will change their forecast since the weather system surrounding the 92b is not behaving as expected.The low pressure would intensify into a cyclone and move in a NW direction.Impact could be in any place in east coast.
this is one slow cyclone we will ever see !!
Prime Reason for the hype is bcos v dnt get any cyclone in tis season… If v get the hype wil b double than our usual season..
Nilam effect continues till now. Systems are afraid of Chennai ?
Nilam made landfall close to chennai but it did not have any severe thunderstorm to cause considerable impact during landfall.For the past few years the frequency of cyclone movement towards TN have increased.
This trend was there in 80’s where many systems impacted TN but in late 90’s and 00’s it has gone down but it seems to be picking up again.
lets come to our business…
????
cimss started cyclone page for 92B…
Link?!
system moving east to settle in s.east bay… the reason is the ridge from mumbai extending down…
if it moves to se bay then its all over for chennai
so far system behaving somewat close to gfs predictions….
No way system has moved nw now
how do u say that ? Proof ??
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2013&MO=05&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=92B.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/tpw/microvap&TYPE=vis
soon the system wil be entering warm waters
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.newtest.php?&basin=indian&sname=92B&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0