393 thoughts on “Northbound Mahasen unlikely to affect Chennai

  1. Nogaps pulling away d systemhttp://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nogaps/2013/05/07/basis12/swas/prec/13051312_0712.gif

  2. Here cmes jtwc AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N 86.0E, \par

    APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED\par

    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH ENHANCEDCONVECTION \par

    FEEDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL \par

    ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW \par

    (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.BASED ON \par

    RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDSARE \par

    ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO \par

    BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FORTHE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT\par

    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

    • @Kea, yes it is..woke up to see my fav being shocked by Baby Fed…He is on song these days and he almost knocked out Rafa in the second round of Monte Carlo few weeks back..Took a set out of the clay king..Same time it is a good wake up call for Novak and expecting him to come back strongly in Rome masters and RG..lets see..Rafa fans will be doubly happy at the exit of Novak..

      • One thing is for sure. #1 ranking guaranteed for Rafa at year end. He has ZERO points to defend from Wimbledon upto Aus Open.

        Hope Fed can take injury time out and come back in Jan.

      • @ Kea, I was a big fan of RF till the day he won the French Open in 09..Im still a lover of his playing style..Like our Sachin, I feel he has achieved everything a sportsman can dream of..Got nothing to prove and a player like RF should not be hanging around and retire as World No 5 or 6 …He has already hinted of being choosy abt tournaments..Points wise, yes , Rafa has got nothing to defend..but if he loses midway in RG or Wimby , it would be b the same story as last year..

  3. 92B virtually escaping 4m 94s… intense convection seen .. Shear tendency map shows high shear in s-bay. But jtwc says 5-10knts of shear in the center… Crazy

  4. the area of convection previously located near 5.7n 86.0e is
    now located near 6.4n 86.0e, approximately 355 nm east of colombo, sri
    lanka. animated infrared satellite imagery shows formative banding has
    wrapped tighter into the low level circulation center (llcc).
    additionally, convective bands have deepened significantly over the
    past 12 hours. upper level analysis indicates the system is under a
    ridge axis in an area of low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear and
    excellent poleward outflow. based on recent scatterometry passes, the
    maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
    minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. in view of
    the deepening convection and better organization of the system, the
    potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within
    the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

    MEDIUM!

  5. Upgraded to medium ,tats gud to c… Jtwc myte be monitoring realtime conditions.. Tis is intensifying so upper level anticyclone wil be back twrds the LLC.

  6. Hi all good morning
    The system is developing quickly and model position is very wrong so dont get upset… the will get it right soon and it will hit TN for sure! :)

  7. expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/05/07/basis18/swas/prec/13051412_0718.gif gfs says it will form s-e , move n-w initally and then move n-e , skirting the pheriphery of indian coastline .

  8. expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/07/basis12/swas/prec/13051218_0712.gif i think that cmc is doing a better job than any other model . Check it out …

  9. Triangular love in the Indian ocean..Film name..Love in Ocean waters ..Starring 91B, 92B and 94S..Who will meet their hero in N.TN..Few Villians in the form of Orissa, Bangladesh n Sumatra..Hope we bloggers do not become Comedians of this mega serial cum Motion Picture..

  10. still IMD says 48hrs

    An   upper   air   cyclonic   circulation   lover   central   Parts   of   south   Bay   of   Bengal   extending   upto   Mid­
    Tropospheric levels persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Bay of Bengal
    during next 48 hours

  11. rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305080000 nice wind formation , the circulation is getting more organised !

  12. Rain/thundershowers would occur at one or two places over extreme south peninsular India
    and increase from 12th onwards.

  13. 92b has intensified but still there are lot of convection down south more than the center.The convection down south is moving towards 94S.Most of the energy is being feed to the thunderstorms south of the system resulting in less energy for 92b.The system is under low shear and high SST which should have caused it to intensify rapidly but the rate of intensification is considerably slow due to 94S.94S is moving southward which will result in intensification of 92B.its still not clear where the depression will form but for the past few hours the low pressure is moving eastwards as expected by GFS and NAVGEM.

  14. It seems, hopes are getting slimmer for TN as the time passes…lot of
    contradications between the models.

    When can we expect a gud news?

  15. if it forms in south bay then TN will have better chance of getting rainfall from this system.If it forms in south east then chance is less comparitively.

  16. LATEST FORECAST MAY 8, 2013, 4.40 AM UTC (10.10 AM IST)

    How the mighty have fallen in the last few days! Once forecast models hinted at a massive cyclone called MAHASEN. Today they say a piddly little low pressure will form in Bay of Bengal around May 10, 2013.

    It (may turn into a depression) will potter around the Bay of Bengal for 4-5 days and then bring some rains in Myanmar on May 15, 2013.

    Mahasen will never grow strong enough to deserve a name.

  17. Our system have seen many villians in the form of shear, hpa and have lost in the fight in the past

    This time, when all the above villians are forecasted to be dummy, a new villian from the Southern hemisphere is spoiling our expectations

  18. INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS OF
    8th May 2013

    · A low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal. Associated
    upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels.

    • The cyclone would most likely develop but whether it will benefit TN or not is still a long shot. guys in our blog are overhyped the impact of system over TN just by looking GFS.It may have some impact over TN or it may not but cyclone is likely to develop.

  19. The system is expected to persist without intensifying over South Bay for next 2 days !
    COLA, IMD and NOGAPS models expects that the system will start intensifying from 10-May over S-S-E Bay.
    According to COLA, From 11-May, the system is expected to be a Depression and expects to track in N-N-W direction into Bay.
    While NOGAPS model suggests that the system will attain Depression strength on 11-May over S-S-E Bay and then track N-N-W and then move N-E.
    The system is expected to track towards Myanmar or Bangladesh ! and this is good for Bay wing of South West Monsoon.
    By 13-May-2013, the South West Monsoon is expected to reach Southern Andaman Islands.

    – Source INDIANWEATHERMAN

      • Nilam made landfall close to chennai but it did not have any severe thunderstorm to cause considerable impact during landfall.For the past few years the frequency of cyclone movement towards TN have increased.

      • This trend was there in 80’s where many systems impacted TN but in late 90’s and 00’s it has gone down but it seems to be picking up again.

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