237 thoughts on “LP expected to form within the next 36 hours

    • No..thats just a mass of clouds in arb sea….

      Ours is not formed till now..its taking time due to a another pressure area which is under our equator…

  1. I am starting to have serious doubts about this cyclone. Its looking like it will be a repeat of the previous ones Chennai witnessed. Latest GFS shows its weakening big time before landfall. It looks like its going to struggle big time with the shear when it nears our coast.

    Probably this is the reason why accu n others are not showing big numbers for us.

    I hope I am wrong for once

  2. Ehsan if would have monitored the models intensity for previous cyclone eg. Cyclone Thane GFS predicted mslp of 990 mb when the storm intensity was around 980. During JAL the intensity was around 1004 mb when intensity was much higher. The models always show the intensity much lesser. Seeing the latest model the storm is crossing the coast just above Chennai so the time in sea is less. Thats why you are seeing maximum intensity of 988 mb compared to 960 mb earlier.

  3. The initial stage of development looks a bit uncertain. It will be pretty slow according to the models. Chance of development within next 40 hours looks slow. Within 96 hours, it will probably be a cyclone located east of Sri Lanka.
    At 183 hours, a 947 mB ripper making landfall in S.AP!

  4. Karthik,just now i came through his blog… he is just typing wat the model shows,he is not considering the conducive factors… Sst 32,shear 10-15 knts n decreasing… he is new to bay.. V all knw how the bay behaves during tis conditions.. Shear going down. Am sure tday the intensity wil rise 4m 15knts.

    • Yeah, I figured. I expected some more substantial. But one thing, he said, is to be noted. He says that ECMWF model doesn’t develop the system and hence he’s skeptical about it. Is the ECMWF model really that reliable?

  5. landfall possibility

    cmc- close to cuddalore/pondy

    nogaps- no cyclone. possible low moving towards central n south TN

    GFS- crossing machili

    ECWMF- missing india

  6. few further N-NW movement wil keep the system in safe spot tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

  7. Chennai corporation is on secret mission… Underground Drainage cleaning agencies wer seen here 4m yestrday..they r eagerly doing their job..They wer not regular before.. Now wat made them to do ? Operated by Mahesan ..?

  8. Current GFS: System doesn’t even come close to chennai. Straight to Orissa.

    Also the initial points of the GFS suggest that Mahesan will be farther in SE bay.

  9. Even though it is not so hot outside, it is very suffocating and uncomfortable outside. Humidity is making life very difficult.
    Is this a harbinger of some good rains next week?

    • IMD Morning bulletin

      ♦ A low pressure area may develop over southwest Bay of Bengal during next 23
      days.

      Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days from 10th May to 14th May, 2013

      ♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over northeastern states and at one or
      two places over West Bengal & Sikkim.
      ♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at one or two places over extreme south peninsular India
      and increase from 12th onwards.
      ♦ A fresh feeble western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from 10th May.

  10. Latest GFS not looking good for Chennai…. This system is not for Chennai.. But can watch moving close to chennai and moving towards orissa..

  11. IMD Mid day bulletin

    ♦ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over central Parts of south Bay of Bengal extending upto MidTropospheric
    levels. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Bay of Bengal during
    next 48 hours and may become more marked subsequently.

  12. Jon,karthik.. Tat ecmwf image luks pretty gud… See ther is reddish orange mark in the outer band ..tat is close to 55 knts.. So the system is of decent intensity while making landfall

  13. The number one discussion and forecast in today’s update is the possibility of a developing cyclone near Sri-Lanka. A pulse of energy lingering just south of the Bay of Bengal has sufficient moisture to gather enough strength to develop in to a strong tropical system this week. There are a few things this area needs to overcome. First and foremost is moderate vertical wind shear around the disturbance. At this time it is what is keeping the area at bay and free from consolidating. If the vertical wind shear lets up though we will likely see a risk of a strong cyclone over the weekend. Where and if it makes landfall is also yet to be determined. A stronger storm would hit Sri Lanka if it headed that way as a much weaker one would be farther north. The northern portions of the Bay of Bengal is high with vertical wind shear. Thus a storm staying off the coastline would be the better situation – western pacific weather

  14. shear again increasing near the center … upper level anticyclone shld come closer to the center… it got slipped away 4m the center,tat is inhibiting as of now.. Actually it shld be in the position like wat v see in 94s , just above the LLC…

  15. it seems that we have 2 wait couple of days for the system to get organize
    shear increasing in the centre, upper level anticyclone moving away from center. what a pity?

    why it is always happens with the bay system, especially when TN expects something from the system?

  16. Raijin ,dude y 2-3 days?? actually the increased shear condition myte hav been created by 94s i guess..its just a temporary situation… Increased shear region wil b moving east as 94s spins n moves further…3 hour time gap is enough to breath well n to consolidate big for 92B… Overall tday, v must say 92B has shown development…. Btw 94s is in 29c sst region,wer as 92B is in 31-32c region… V wil b seeing double the rate of intensification than 94 s.. Anyway V wil wait for nxt update on shear..

    • Once it organises above a threshold, then we will probably just see intensification from that point on. Explosive intensification is sure once shears drops.

    • Hey there. Welcome to the blog!

      That’s a pretty good breakdown of the BOB system. Vertical Wind shear is the factor that is keeping it down at this point, so that’s accurate.

      Thank you for the forecast.

      • A few more days, latest models still showing that shear taking more of a toll on it that though previously thought. Even a land falling system at this time seems less likely. Will be a few interesting days.. Thanks for the welcome to the blog. I posted here last year a few times as well. Really a great spot for weather in India.

  17. Kea,

    I think its time to restart the “Bussvaanam for Chennai” campaign/team headed by u..i will join u this time..ashwinds will also join us followed by more supporters..

    Don’t change ur nature..be pessimistic as always and rock!!! :lol:

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