Low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday, it is expected to intensify into a depression and eventually into Cyclone Mahasen. Landfall is expected on Sunday
Low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday, it is expected to intensify into a depression and eventually into Cyclone Mahasen. Landfall is expected on Sunday
KeaWeather Archives 
IMD has officially mounted a watch on the system..
http://colombogazette.com/2013/05/06/low-pressure-over-bay-of-bengal/
Destination Chennai according to latest GFS
GFS was the only one that has predicted well the track of Laila too.
am i right?
Has the system moved west by any chance? I see huge cloud mass near Lakshadeep.
No..thats just a mass of clouds in arb sea….
Ours is not formed till now..its taking time due to a another pressure area which is under our equator…
Now the system moves very close to chennai..and hit S.AP
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=168&focus=mh
Guess accu has other thoughts
I am starting to have serious doubts about this cyclone. Its looking like it will be a repeat of the previous ones Chennai witnessed. Latest GFS shows its weakening big time before landfall. It looks like its going to struggle big time with the shear when it nears our coast.
Probably this is the reason why accu n others are not showing big numbers for us.
I hope I am wrong for once
MAWeatherBoy1 has updated. Not much about 92B.
u mean JAL?? 😦
Ehsan if would have monitored the models intensity for previous cyclone eg. Cyclone Thane GFS predicted mslp of 990 mb when the storm intensity was around 980. During JAL the intensity was around 1004 mb when intensity was much higher. The models always show the intensity much lesser. Seeing the latest model the storm is crossing the coast just above Chennai so the time in sea is less. Thats why you are seeing maximum intensity of 988 mb compared to 960 mb earlier.
system intensifying , lot of severe TS forming around http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20130507.0101.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.92BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-55N-860E.100pc.jpg
The initial stage of development looks a bit uncertain. It will be pretty slow according to the models. Chance of development within next 40 hours looks slow. Within 96 hours, it will probably be a cyclone located east of Sri Lanka.
At 183 hours, a 947 mB ripper making landfall in S.AP!
Is this what he said?
Not word by word, but this was the gist. He updated in the comments that some models do not weaken it before landfall.
WS luks low in entire sw bay.. and Now the shear reducing around the system also..
Look at MAweatherboy1’s update.
Coordinates [92B]:
5.5 N 86 E
Karthik,just now i came through his blog… he is just typing wat the model shows,he is not considering the conducive factors… Sst 32,shear 10-15 knts n decreasing… he is new to bay.. V all knw how the bay behaves during tis conditions.. Shear going down. Am sure tday the intensity wil rise 4m 15knts.
Yeah, I figured. I expected some more substantial. But one thing, he said, is to be noted. He says that ECMWF model doesn’t develop the system and hence he’s skeptical about it. Is the ECMWF model really that reliable?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MAweatherboy1/show.html
Yes ,ecmwf 1 of the most reliable model.
even ecwmf keeps changing its forecast with every update
There is sometimes no correlation between two consecutive runs even.
Can someone give link to this model?
Catastrophic monster coming our way Dashman. Boats might not be enough. We need something more advanced
Is this ok?
😀
Yeah it might be anchored in E.A for few days !!!!
@kea
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!192!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013050600
ecwmf forecast looks bleak
Very bleak when compared to others. Major difference.
ya n its not consistent with its forecast anymore
circulation happening in s bay
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=iiir&CONT=asie&BIG=1&LOOP=12
landfall possibility
cmc- close to cuddalore/pondy
nogaps- no cyclone. possible low moving towards central n south TN
GFS- crossing machili
ECWMF- missing india
Jon, luk at the convection now in 92B… Its Very rapid improvement 4m 7.30 sat image.
Intense convection. Must be favourable conditions.
ya, currently it is located in s bay.. hope it gets shifted to sw bay soon
chennai upgrades cyclone warning system- signs of things to come??
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/Chennai-upgrades-cyclone-warning-system/articleshow/19912167.cms
Somebody leave comments in MAweatherboy blog. He might just start blogging here.
bring jim andrews ere. tis MAweatherboy seems to be a rookie
Jim hardly blogs
few further N-NW movement wil keep the system in safe spot tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Chennai corporation is on secret mission… Underground Drainage cleaning agencies wer seen here 4m yestrday..they r eagerly doing their job..They wer not regular before.. Now wat made them to do ? Operated by Mahesan ..?
current gfs forecast not looking gud
Current GFS: System doesn’t even come close to chennai. Straight to Orissa.
Also the initial points of the GFS suggest that Mahesan will be farther in SE bay.
Most models have driven the system away from the SouthEast coast with their current updates.
no above 40 recorded in TN
http://imdchennai.gov.in/obs_data.htm
ridge extending south ,another 1 near s.kar. Tats y gfs moving it away 4m chennai http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_asia_120_precip_p24.gif
Not much chance of the ridge positions changing then?
Surely there should be an error in gfs because system is located west and it says its east! 😆
circulation building up steadiy
am damn sure.. The ridge 4m mumbai xtending till orissa wil b dominant..tis system wil hit n.tn-s.ap…
They’ve taken the strength of that ridge to be almost negligible and have placed importance on the one lower down.
circulation visible..
Jma still holding the orissa ridge till may 11th… So stil ther is a bright chance .
latest position..
Jtwc wil clearly say wer the ridge is going to be n wich 1 is dominant…v wil Wait 4 it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/13050700/75.html
😎
was searching for this link…… lost my bookmarks……..
GFS’s track..
that looks crazy because the cyclone is not located there….. 🙄
but actually gfs predicting the development near sumatra…
That’s what I’m saying. 92B will not develop into Mahesan.
yeah but CMC says SW BOB….
Even though it is not so hot outside, it is very suffocating and uncomfortable outside. Humidity is making life very difficult.
Is this a harbinger of some good rains next week?
92B invest locaion…
6.0N 88.4E
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2013&MO=05&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=92B.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/tpw/microvap&TYPE=tmi
IMD Morning bulletin
♦ A low pressure area may develop over southwest Bay of Bengal during next 23
days.
Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days from 10th May to 14th May, 2013
♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over northeastern states and at one or
two places over West Bengal & Sikkim.
♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at one or two places over extreme south peninsular India
and increase from 12th onwards.
♦ A fresh feeble western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from 10th May.
next 23 days.??
Lol. How is that even an outlook? 😀
sorry its 2-3 days…..
Will 92B be our Mahesan or not? Currently most models believe Mahesan will originate in SE Bay and that is one factor of its track.
According to IMD the ridge line is passing at 14 deg N…
IMD is a good authority as far as ridge positions are concerned. However,how long it will stay at 14N and whether it will be the deciding factor is vital.
guys,let the low pressure organize then only we will get the accurate position.Models will vary until the system organize.
Some models say 92B will not develop and Mahesan will form farther along SE bay. your take?
They are not sure which cloud mass is going to develop thats the reason.For each run it will change .The cloud mass is starting to organize by tomorrow the models would be able to pick the position.
Oh okay..
shear is decreasing all along the south bay..Its gonna explode once it starts to organize.
satellite pic clearly shows a broad location in south bay which seems to be more defined than yesterday.
*rotation
The circulation is starting to become more defined and is also developing convection.
yes
The system currently in low shear.Cululo nimbus clouds starting to develop southern part of circulation.
*cumulo
Visible rotation:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/indian
pretty well defined rotation visible in animation
jtwc will start monitoring this as the rotation has become well defined.
Ya..Shear reducing ..and btw ecmwf update showing system close to pulicat lake with very low intensity http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Asia!chart.gif
Now the landfall point seen by the models is getting closer n closer .
Sel
I was about to post this and u posted it 😉 and yes ecmwf shows a low crossing Chennai… 😐
It will surely be more than just a low..
what do u mean???…. just a dep??? 😐 ❓
It should easily be a cyclone. It’s already starting to look well defined. I’m saying it will be of higher intensity anyway, than the one ECMWF predicts.
oh ok
Cmc http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/07/basis00/swas/pslv/13051300_0700.gif
CMC has been much more aggressive with this storm than other models.
6 N 88.4 E
INT- 15.
shear decreasing rapidly..
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
Kea,
I have invited MAWeatherboy to our blog as per your orders
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MAweatherboy1/comment.html?entrynum=65#commenttop
Dash,tats gud.. Lets c how he makes an entry to our kea blog …
2.30pm update,strong convection continues…. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc13/IO/92B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20130507.0900.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.92BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-60N-884E.100pc.jpg
For us it seems the low designated as 92B will initially track Northwards and take the trough corridor..lets see…- Vagaries
a comment in MAWeatherboy1’s blog?
Still the shear near the LLC appears to b moderate,.. Divergence increasing…
Latest GFS not looking good for Chennai…. This system is not for Chennai.. But can watch moving close to chennai and moving towards orissa..
circulation is building up more to the west than actually wat gfs estimated
yes and gfs blabbering today morning!!! 😆 😆 😆
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
latest gfs … towards orrisa ?? that too from S-E corner bay ???
IMD Mid day bulletin
♦ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over central Parts of south Bay of Bengal extending upto MidTropospheric
levels. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Bay of Bengal during
next 48 hours and may become more marked subsequently.
Jon,yeah a more west than gfs initial take.., it wil be luking pretty close to lanka once it turn into DD or more…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
No need to worry abt gfs… They changes very often..
ecwmf forecast looks better now
Finally, some sense. Still the intensity is off the mark.
Jon,karthik.. Tat ecmwf image luks pretty gud… See ther is reddish orange mark in the outer band ..tat is close to 55 knts.. So the system is of decent intensity while making landfall
Jon and sel that’s an outdated image….
Oh..no. Tat was ystrday update. .Lol.
Cha. Vada poche.
yup 😦
The number one discussion and forecast in today’s update is the possibility of a developing cyclone near Sri-Lanka. A pulse of energy lingering just south of the Bay of Bengal has sufficient moisture to gather enough strength to develop in to a strong tropical system this week. There are a few things this area needs to overcome. First and foremost is moderate vertical wind shear around the disturbance. At this time it is what is keeping the area at bay and free from consolidating. If the vertical wind shear lets up though we will likely see a risk of a strong cyclone over the weekend. Where and if it makes landfall is also yet to be determined. A stronger storm would hit Sri Lanka if it headed that way as a much weaker one would be farther north. The northern portions of the Bay of Bengal is high with vertical wind shear. Thus a storm staying off the coastline would be the better situation – western pacific weather
Where did u find that?
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2013/05/07/developing-cyclone-heavy-rains-in-china-and-a-sudden-warm-up/
Sachin Baby
http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-premier-league-2013/content/player/432783.html
There is a chance of a TS for Chennai on Monday.
Did anyone see Virat drop Miller and the ball hitting his face?
System moved WNW now located at 6.3N 87.4E intensity 15kts
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2013&MO=05&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=92B.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/91B.INVEST/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/cricket/india-board-president-n-srinivasan-may-be-crickets-most-destructive-figure/story-fn67wltq-1226636632524?sv=cfeef3862445711dc59c2daef930673f#.UYiCJcLDq0A.twitter
Nothing new about it. I always new he is too powerful.
kea https://m.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-c.ak/hphotos-ak-ash3/s200x200/48017_667945416555765_800629536_a.jpg
shear again increasing near the center … upper level anticyclone shld come closer to the center… it got slipped away 4m the center,tat is inhibiting as of now.. Actually it shld be in the position like wat v see in 94s , just above the LLC…
Most models getting the current position wrong 😛
it seems that we have 2 wait couple of days for the system to get organize
shear increasing in the centre, upper level anticyclone moving away from center. what a pity?
why it is always happens with the bay system, especially when TN expects something from the system?
Raijin ,dude y 2-3 days?? actually the increased shear condition myte hav been created by 94s i guess..its just a temporary situation… Increased shear region wil b moving east as 94s spins n moves further…3 hour time gap is enough to breath well n to consolidate big for 92B… Overall tday, v must say 92B has shown development…. Btw 94s is in 29c sst region,wer as 92B is in 31-32c region… V wil b seeing double the rate of intensification than 94 s.. Anyway V wil wait for nxt update on shear..
Once it organises above a threshold, then we will probably just see intensification from that point on. Explosive intensification is sure once shears drops.
My weather forecast says rain from Monday – Thursday. 76 kmhr wind on Tuesday
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
this is what v have to b content with?
Sorry it wasn’t updated. Forecast after refresh isn’t convincing
6.3N 87.4E
Remained mostly stationary.
Circulation starting to get organised, Vmax 20 knots:
i was about to post this and u posted it… wow the LLCC is now organizing! 🙂
Yeah. Will probably intensify by tomorrow.
yeah eagerly waiting for it!!! 😛
btw why are the models struggling to find the LLCC location??? ❓ each one of them giving one story….. 😐
Vinodh said it may because the cloud mass is disoriented a bit and hence there’s no LLCC which can be pinpointed. It appears strange to me too that the cyclone emerges from SE bay. Once it organises, they will probably be able to be more accurate.
ok then lets see what happens… will this mean that it will move east towards sumatra and intensify like gfs says??? ❓
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
cmc is a bit much better than any othe model so far … what do you people think ?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922013&product_filename=2013IO92_MPSATWND_201305071200
the north east winds are a bit more stronger than the rest …
vraj
see carefully, the southwestery winds are stronger than the northeasterlies beacuse of SWM onset process…
tstorms in madurai
Anyone got hold of today’s 12GMT run of the GFS?
12 gmt forecast wil be available only after 21.30 ist
IST= GMT+ 5.30?
yup GMT= +5.30 IST…
I know that. Then shouldn’t the models be out at 5.30? That’s what I’m asking.
ya but updates provided evry 6hrs
12gmt – 21.30ist
18gmt – 3.30ist
00gmt – 9.30,ist,
6gmt – 15.30ist
no it will come at 3am, 9am, 3pm and 9m…
Logic purila ana timing okay 😀
yup we will get them only by 9:30
super!!! 😎
Ther is 40% chance of a storm hitting lanka-nagai if the ridge 4m nw extends south twrds s.int karnataka..
Jon,is tat real time imagery??
yup
yup
yup
any idea when will the cmc 0600 GMT run be out ??
3.30ist
s-sw quadrant managed to build sum convection though the shear was moderate-high…
NEWS JUST IN:
Pakistani politician Imran Khan has fallen of a makeshift elevator as he was being raised to the stage to address an election rally.
TV footage showed supporters carrying a bloodied and dazed Mr Khan away from the rally.
Despite falling several meters, Khan’s injuries are not life-threatening.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22440518
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropics-ready-to-ignite-1/11912370
92B invest has now moved WSW and now located at 5.8N 86E
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
@Jupi, does it favour us?
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropics-ready-to-ignite-1/11912370
Hi there everyone, I just put together a video on this “possible developing cyclone”. Also some other information in the first half of it, the bulk of the update is on this though. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8KIb2QNv5k
thanks robert
thnks for tat update
Hey there. Welcome to the blog!
That’s a pretty good breakdown of the BOB system. Vertical Wind shear is the factor that is keeping it down at this point, so that’s accurate.
Thank you for the forecast.
Hi Robert, Thanks for the nice update. Whats your final take? How long will it take to organise itself to become a cyclonic strom?
A few more days, latest models still showing that shear taking more of a toll on it that though previously thought. Even a land falling system at this time seems less likely. Will be a few interesting days.. Thanks for the welcome to the blog. I posted here last year a few times as well. Really a great spot for weather in India.
92b is still lacking convection around the northern part and also part of energy moving down south.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=138&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
latest gfs … 1200 gmt …
looks bad for chennai … i dont understand how its predicting a s-w bay for mations … ???
its still not updated.wait for 15 more mins
i think this system is not for us 😦 let see after few days.
too early..Like i said before let it develop.
It is taking a bit more time to develop than anticipated. It may become a significant one only by 10th.
94s is the culprit.
i think thats the reason for the GFS not to develop this cloud mass into thunderstorm.
*into cyclone
Most models, not only GFS are not developing this mass. You are right, I think. Ever since 94S strengthened, 91B’s updates have fallen logarithmically.
yes
http://www.weatheronline.in/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=in&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=iiir&CONT=inin&BIG=0&LOOP=12
look this animation clouds in southern part of system unable to reach north due to the presence of 94S.
Yeah. 94S is already pseudo-strong. Only after it moves will 91B be able to develop. 94S influencing 91B big time.
92B will take some time to organize.
92B* instead of 91B.
lat gfs looks terrible
gfs saying the same thing again and again system developing near sumatra!…. 😐 ❓
blabbering??
Jupiter’s great great grandson is angry on gfs 😆
lol
Kea,
I think its time to restart the “Bussvaanam for Chennai” campaign/team headed by u..i will join u this time..ashwinds will also join us followed by more supporters..
Don’t change ur nature..be pessimistic as always and rock!!! 😆
I am also ready to join.. this one for sure bussvaanam for chennai…
eksi! bengloor guys not allowed 😦
🙂 lol
More than shear from 94s its the energy depriving causing the 92b not to develop.Thunderstorms are moving towards 94S.
25 knts shear… 92B stop ur affair with 94s, Else u wil be no more..
The whole are of thunderstorm will organize but it wail t ake some time.
http://www.dinodia.com/ImageBigView.asp?ImageID=206449
Yes..Bengloor guys not allowed..we are forming this team out of disappointment..
i am disappointed too…. really.. mother father promise.. 🙂
don’t jump to conclusion as yet. still a long way to go