Foreasts for not looking positive for another 7-10 days. The big question now is can the NEM revive after Cyclone Nilam. Time is running out. The last big failure of NEM was in 2003, and 2012 could join the list.
Foreasts for not looking positive for another 7-10 days. The big question now is can the NEM revive after Cyclone Nilam. Time is running out. The last big failure of NEM was in 2003, and 2012 could join the list.
KeaWeather Archives 
What about the opinion of the experts who predicted bountiful NEM thanks to El Nino ? Time to look for new profession ? 🙂
Remember though even SWM in July was though to be failure and then it became normal monsoon in August and September.
Its still only 12th November. December could be very different. So be patient.
We must wait for the birth of this system. Tracks change everyday. By today evening we may have a system in our hand.
ippo soneengale athu noothula oru vaakkiyam thalaiva…
BL has a whole lot of scenarios for this system. But unfortunately nobody is certain about the landfall area.
NEM 2012 hopes fading fast, KEA fears may be proven right. No rainfall forecast for next 5-6 days. Let us face it and not build hopes.
Wat imd is saying tat the system wont come out of tis enclosed area of trough extending 4m lpa…so according to imd, it wil move out to myanmar http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Indian-Northern/marineM00.gif
writing on the wall!
Sundar… ??? Puriyala
NEM failure on cards.
This system is going to be very big in size. Wherever it goes min. 40CM of rain is guarenteed.
40cm for who?
wherever it landfalls
I thought he was saying no matter where it goes, 40cm for Chennai as the size is gigantic
Not necessarily landfall. Even if it comes 200 to 300 KM closer to the coast we can have that. Some models predict that it is going to linger near Chennai for 3 to 4 days as DD. If that happens 40CM for Chennai even if it goes Bangaladesh
vorticbob, high hopes to expect 40cm for Chennai. Maybe you mean 40 microns for Chennai from this system
40 cm in BOB ?
Remember Nilam. Where it had given 51CM in total?
But no rains in the landfall region, that’s the fate
Fine weather likely to prevail for next three to four days.
can you give me the definition of fine weather?
the kind of weather we have had for 12 days in November
lol
shall i assume that the 30+ degree weather that prevails now as a fine weather?
A lot of frustration already because there is no rain.
Please keep in mind currently as of today its still normal rainfall. That could change with this week end and we could be deficit. However currently we are normal.
even we might have got normal rains from the normal NE morning showers, but unfortunately, before and after the nilam cyclone, there is dry period and now once again dry period for the formation of new system. What happens to NE monsoon, if the system does not comes towards chennai?
Hi as of now IMD says Lpa will form by tom.. let see how systém delevops.let hope the best …nature May spring up a surprise
will form or may form?
if it is may form? then there is no assurity as everthing is against NE Monsoon as of now
Contest page updated with points. Looks like it does not need to be updated till month end.
I will be getting 200 points by then.
hi kea, do u really want this to happen? be frank in ur reply
as everyone in this blog wants rain !!!!!
i think, there is the difference between,what we expect to happen and what is being actually happening.
Hi, its too much pessimistic approach, it is actually like chee chee intha palam pulikkum story!!!!!
cat5hurricane, I hope Chennai gets 500-600 mm this November. But that’s happening with the available forecasts.
Why will I want to put this 500 mm figure into my contest. I have a better chance with a lesser value.
its fine ! i agree, but my only wish was not to be too pessimistic nor too optimistic as we did last time during Nilam
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/andrews/tropical-cyclone-nilam-hits-chennai/911481
why this post? i couldn’t get..
another cyclone that made Chennai famous, after Jal
oh…Now i got it..
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Now NOGAPS also says S.AP landfall,but with heavy rains for Chennai. I feel this is going to Burma/Bangaladesh
http://www.kea.metsite.com/contest.htm
Kea,
We have had 2 rainy days this november and highest 24 hr rainfall is 21.4 mm
r u sure 21.4?
I remember once it rained 9.8
21.4
9.8
1.6
1.4
adds upto 34.2, where is the other 1.4 mm?
yes,21.4
12.8
21.4
1.4
That’s it.
Remember when meena got 18 mm? That’s when we got 1.4 mm
The day we got 21.4,meena got 21.6
I also remember your reply to that saying “Oh no!”
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
LOL
ECMWF says landfall close to Chennai.
surprisingly chennai minimun is lower than vellore !!!!!
sorry min temp!
wiki article video about cyclone laila. This same path might give us some hope.
pamaban min temp is always higher , any specific reason for this????
comparing the coastal tamilnadu regions
Closer to equator than others. Is also partially land-locked as other land areas are surrounding it.
hi, this means vellore should have its minimum higher!!!!
the obvious reason is higher SST , but why the SST is always higher?
SST is higher in equatorial regions. Pamban is a heck closer to the equator than Chennai,and yes,also SST plays a part in temp during sea breeze.
No,vellore will be lower as it is land-locked completely.
But pamban is close to the sea,so land and sea breeze would maintain pretty much the same temperature even though it is surrounded by 50% land.
yes sudharshan, the question is why sst which are the prime reason for night temp are higher in Pamban?
If NEM is a failure like 2003, then God save Chennai from the looming water scarcity. This shouldn’t happen.
Blame it on the useless cyclone Nilam.
cyclones early in the season is terrible. Cyclones should come only at the end of NEM
Cyclones during peak NEM days will be toppled by shear. They should form after Nov 20th or atleast 15th to be in low shear.
We all expected NILAM will give more rains..and it crossed chennai also..but we got empty hand…
the same situation is going to happen here, but in reverse….
it will not cross chennai but its going to give more rains to us….
More frustrations …will bring close to us..
Nilam didn’t give rains because the shear pushed the convection to the SW of the storm.
I was very much worried, that 2013 summer should not be the repeat of 2004 Summer because of the monsoon failure in 2003
http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2106/stories/20040326003203800.htm
@cat5hurricane
As the sea is warmer than other regions near Pamban ,Kanyakumari etc.,
The sea breeze will also be warmer,so the min temp won’t be so low.
Hi sudharshan, u r repeating what I said. My question is why SST is higher exceptionally then other coastal regions of Tamilnadu.
The SST is higher there as it is closer to the equator than the others. This leads to direct sunrays falling there resulting in high SST
pls check tuticorin or down south kanyakumari, which are further down south than pamban.
Pamban willl have couple of degrees more
Its fine sudharshan, lets stop further comments and look forward for a good NEM
Hi Sudharshan !!! WISH u and and ur family a happy diwali !!! and really appreciate ur weather quest at this early young age !!! keep upur gud work.
How did u get such a great interest boy ! amazing !!!! would like to take up meteorolgy jobs in future???
he is aiming for b.tech IT in IIT
Nilam was a failure only for chennai. It was a god send gift for delta. Entire south Tn recieved very good rains. It saved the farmers. Chennai is in bad shape , no doubt. Lets hope we still scrape through to get our targets. With thousand of aprtments coming up , god knows how and where we are going to get water. My apartment in ramapuram gets about 1,00,000 litres per day from groundwater. Every week an apartment is being launched in chennai. Its time the government focusses on making other cities also to grow. Otherwise even if we become cherrapunji we cant supply water.
well said..the true fact… even the highways road trees are also down to the road extension..
trees less..flats more..how we will get rain ????
really a good comment mahesh !!! and its reality !!!!
even the pollutants could defer the formation of clouds, the SPM could also be a reason for that!!!!!!!
Hi all, WISH U all a very Happy and safe Diwali and a great Novemeber NEM!!!
wish you the same 😀
wish u the same 🙂
@kea
you are now out of the 24h Rainfall contest. So please update the points.
how I am out? I am closest to it and still leading by a big margin
ok…got it
I am sure, soon u will be out of No of rainy days in November contest with just 2 rain days over 2mm is easily possible
have been waiting for a RD for past 9 days now, and no signs of it for don’t know how many days
The monsoon failed in 2002 and 2003.
How come 2002? Rain in Chennai was infact 15% excess.
2003 and 2004 were failures
http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2106/stories/20040326003203800.htm
read this
This is why you don’t trust weather in news
hope we will not be in the same situation!!!!!
dip in pressure 4m 1009 to 1007hp 70%chance for the system to make landfall near pondi-machili. The forecast may change in two days http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/darwin_MSLP_00z.shtml
Chennai records coldest night since Feb 28th
this is not a gud sign, we need warmer nights for the rains to start !!!
Guys, Don’t worry. if it doesn’t rain during Diwali, we will get rain atleast during Pongal. Extended monsoon this time
but generally extended monsoon is gud for regions like vedarnayam and nagai !!!!!! so we need rains in novemeber arguably the best of monsoon time !!!!
lol…
You want settle for Pongal and Kicchidi instead of Deepavali laadu. Atleast why not a Christmas cake?
how u r still confident of Deepavali Laddu?
The hard bitter fact is Chennai does not have water resources to support 10 million population which is still growing. The only city which has equipped well to deal with these kind of population in India is Mumbai. mahesh even other Tamilnadu cities and villages have water scarcity problems. The ultimate solution is population control, afforestation and water conservation. It is likely to get worse in the coming days. couple of years monsoon failure and subsequent chaos will be unimaginable.
Ultimate solution is to build more dams and better management of them.
We do not have enough storage facility in the first place.
Tis is Wat i observed 4m the models for the past 2 days.. they r expecting a low 4m s.china sea along with a trough 4m east-s.east direction . As per them, tis wil push the ridge towards nw direction 4m east central bay , towards interior and tis is allowing the bay system to move n recurve twrds myanmar… Am nt sure ,tis is just my analysis. If ther is a Delay or s.china sea system failed to intensify,the ridge stays near 16N so the entire scenario wil change , and system wil hit n.tn-s.ap.,tis is just my prediction… Lets c wats gng to happen
Aussies trashing SA bowling
aussie spirit maan!
Fresh update 4m Ecmwf, system to linger in bay for 7 days with moderate intensity.. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!chart.gif
at least tat will be better !!
Ok all bring on new Nov rain predictions! Someone had predicted 550 mm plus last time. Wonder where he is?
@kea
can u open the contest again?
NCMRWF model of 850hPa, Ch15 to CH20, shows the system lingering near Chennai for 5days.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-15.htm.
If we take only up to 72 hrs forecast, we can see that most of the tracks are same. We need not to worry about 96+ hrs forecast.
November rainfall upto 12th, month total in brackets
2011 – 192 mm (451)
2010 – 163 mm (275)
2009 – 486 mm (562)
2008 – 9 mm (560)
2007 – 4 mm (275)
2006 – 123 mm (236)
2005 – 343 mm (608)
2004 – 275 mm (280)
2003 – 54 mm (85)
2002 – 579 mm (580)
2001 – 200 mm (387)
2000 – 46 mm (190)
Hope Chennai follows the 2008 pattern this year
v had nisha to the rescue in 2008 but now????
@kea
have u mistakenly mentioned 2008 instead of 2007?
no y?
Suddenly ur comment seems to be more optimistic. So I doubt that
Kea’s pessimic fever is spreading like Dengue. Conditions are favourable for further spread of this fever. The only cure is torrential rains. I hope everybody is cured of this fever by this week end!
partha vaccine, where is he!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes. So many are missing!
he too was already attacked which was clearly visible if you refer the comments posted sterday by him at some time(i couldn’t refer). I have never seen his confidence as low as of now
i couldn’t refer – > i couldn’t remember the exact time
Well yes we have less trees , more concrete etc , the same is the fact in singapore too…..it rains daily there but the fact is the government is proactice and so the singaporeans….every millilitre of water is juiced out of sewage treatment and recycled to highest standards and reused…whereas if it rains 1700mm per year in chennai only 700 goes to storage whereas 1000 goes back to sea..courtesy chennai corporation…still india and chennai rocks..we have our own style of living…
ithula vera joke enna na…30 floors of apartment buildings..they name it as palace etc..sitting on rocks with back waters around it ( sea water ) in and around omr…appo tanker water than palace su ku…30th floor thanni varalana…bucket than…ninachi parunga pa…one crore minimum price of apartment. monthly maintenence charge 5000rs
Very rare event http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/img/144hgfs_850wind.gif
why rare…some times IMD prediction can also be positive…
that time may be this one..
no…am not snubbing imd ..do v hav seen anything like tat bfore??
ya da..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/120hgfs_850wind.htm
IMD says it comes close to Chennai and curves away
Close means plus or minus 500 km from their actual position.
about 200 km from chennai
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_mslp.htm
This image is very interesting…2 cyclones joining together ????
We need some of those hot days of may to get some decent rain this fine weather wont help us to get any rain.useless.
Min. Temp. :-
Meena :- 21.2*c
Nunga :- 21.7*c
Coimbatore AP :- 22*c
Puducherry :- 22.1*c
Salem :- 20.2*c
Vellore :- 23*c
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec6.html
Chennai’s only hope now is December according to this. Hopefully it will be a record breaking December this year
steering winds going to play the huge role and ridge to some extent…
Wish a HPA block the path to Orissa,WB and Bangladesh 😐
am having big hope on tis system,,going to be very interesting.
Dear All,
TS formation going on in SE Bay. Look at the second pic.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/
how is it going to help us?
Both systems are covered in a 1008 hpa.
Like nut in a shell.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/144hgfs_mslp.htm
now all forecasts track towards NE
close enough wrt to date n time http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Sidr
What is happening here?
and also this animation:
95W, the feared cause for Mahasen curving away from Chennai is not yet in picture.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP952012
cyclones in BOB during NEM is never gud 😦
There are 2 systems in bay at the same time. This is confirmed by IMD.
On is at the north bay is which forming now. On 19th it is moved towards mayanmar.
The one near TN coast is the one which came South China Sea. Due to this system we will get rains. That too after 20th only.
The extreme peninsula india will get rains from 14th. That is south TN again.
so the dry period now extends from 15days to 20 days as of know
Welcome back.
if the condition doesn’t improves, the kea’s prediction might become true
Our forecasts are not accurate for 3+ days. 20th is
8+ days. Anything can happen
its gonna be a high intensity storm if it reaches N bay
which one? from south-china sea, or the other one
ya…sst in n.bay is higher than sw bay
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
ECMWF latest update.
Cyclone/D to come close to chennai and move away to NE,like fake “Mala” in Dec 2005. Hope we got around 10-12 cm atleast.
s.china sea system merging with our bay system?? http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=indi_ortho_wind
nd moves to Bangla, Myanmar.. 😦
Now no model predicts cyclone coming close to chennai except ECMWF 😦
Hope this becomes like Laila where no one predicted rains and we got 19 cm
we’ve ECMWF !! cheers !!
ECMWF will also change its prediction soon…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Sidr
Pretty much the same time and date,but formation about 3/4 S. Hope the southern formation can give us some rains or a HPA pushes it off from north bay
CFS predicts something big hitting Chennai at around 28th November
This is called spirit ! Why to worry abt current one ?. Think something new
around 25th u will be talking about december’s
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmcens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=384&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
CMC ensemble model says this hitting S.AP and another system hitting S.AP aswell.
We have to wait another 2 days.
wait for the new system will continues…..
KEA,
I still feel that after 20th only we will get rains. Failure of NEM not possible.
from 15th, you have moved to 20th.November right ? Lets see
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
ECMWF ensemble says storm to move westward after reaching approx. chennai latitude… ❓
Oh,ensemble says the system coming from Pacific merges with this and causes westward movement if you notice carefully.
Everybody was laughing at my predictions. But I had spent a lot of time analysing all the models before coming to the conclusion
I know this is not the best thing to happen for Chennai. Hope some system forms in Bay and dumps 20-30 cm for us later this month
subba!!!!!! why this kolaveri in this blog!!! 😀 system not moving north and all if it moves north it will fizzle out!!! 😆 remeber cyclone ward??? latest WRF model predicts the system hitting South Lanka!!! 😀 http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/72hwrfdrain.htm theres a lot of shear in n bay it seems… this is my analysis…
according to apcc orissa WB bangal and burma will have below normal rains so no system going there…..
u hav predicted know…so tis will turn twrds chennai
KEA,
Look at the forecast after 20th.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/november-weather/206671
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/INXX0202?par=usatoday&site=www.usatoday.com&promo=0&cm_ven=USAToday&cm_cat=www.usatoday.com&cm_pla=WxPage&cm_ite=CityPage
november maybe a failure for us but just look at ap orissa WB and bangla…. below normal to normal rains….
but december looks encouraging 😎 😉
ya it wil be below normal for wb,bangal becoz system is heading for burma
upcoming days r going to be really interesting as a weatherman…lots n lots of twist …hope i enjoy to the core.
thats the spirit !!!!
sel
look at this!!! 😀
amazing la…lets see
My prediction 470mm will be true.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F12%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ASIA&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Asia&prevArea=ASIA&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
if this is case then worst NEM
guys, system form aagatum aprom paathukalam…
innuma nambikka?
aama…etho sariilla..namakku saathagama varum ne thonuthu ..pakkalam
exactly da.. we’l wait for its birth.. thn d conditions may change…
Jupi/Selvan,
I know we will get our portion. I cant accept to KEA as he says it is a failure.
HPA is so high near TN. That is why it is so cool nowadays. Also there is a forecast for some more cooler nights for next 48 hours.
This hpa has to shift towards north to get rainfall.
oh no partha also catches this pessimistic fever!!!! 😦 god save us….
Any good reason why NEM cannot fail this year?
Its not like we have no system at al.. we’ve some, compared to other seasons now.. but the path is jus varying and factors gng against us marginally.. we cannot conclude its a failure even b4 d birth of the upcoming systems..
Some storms seen in long-range radar.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Wind shear 60-70 kts in N.Bay and increasing
So system cannot survive there for long 😀 
if a cyclone moves to N bay it can only gain strength
tat high shear is caused by the ridge..wen system forms ,it will start to decrease if system pushes it..
Yes,but what about Jal?Same case might happen.
Since models are aggressively building it to a cyclone over north bay as they are expected the shear to decrease.i guess the Upper anticyclone over sumatra is going to track along with system and provide low shear.
jal was under fav conditions 12hrs prior befor to landfall…but unfortunately it changed at the last moment
Sel,jal was under moderate conditions till the time it reached the TN coast so the intensification was slow.When it reached TN coast the upper level winds where moderate to high that caused its demise.
During post storm analysis this storm was downgraded to a tropical storm from a minimal cat 1.
will kea have the last laugh?? 👿
<>
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Is it an easterly wave near bangkok?
Its connected to the current system in bay not the second one.
This is the second system
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?SIZE=Thumb&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=wp&ATCF_YR=1&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20121112.0212.terra.x.vishkm.96WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-62N-1183E.90pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=wp961&ATCF_DIR=1&ACTIVES=12-SHEM-95S.INVEST,12-WPAC-96W.INVEST&MO=NOV&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2012&YR=12&BASIN=WPAC&STORM_NAME=96W.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/WPAC/96W.INVEST/tpw/microvap&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/WPAC/96W.INVEST/vis/geo/2km&TYPE=geo&PROD=vis&SUB_PROD=2km
sussa, see how its going to be http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPSHEARIOCN_0z/f120.gif
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
South Indian Ocean’s both systems fizzled out..
Most of the models are swinging the system away from TN coast for past 12 hours.The system circulation is expected to be a large one as per models since its forming inside a large trough.If the system is going to be large then 2nd system is going to struggle.A upper anticyclone is developing over the sumatra coast which would decrease the shear over the south bay.Looks like this anticyclone will provide low shear to the system in its path.
So super cyclone possible….
super cyclone is rare.its difficult to tell until you the see the system gain the inital intensity quite rapidly.The system size looks to be large as per models but not the intensity.Lets see.
sst too perfect for rapid intensification
Rainfall in CM
Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist) 3 and Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist), Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist) and Periyar (Theni Dist) 1 each.
ECMWF forecast.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012111200!!/
Huge upper anticyclone over the phillipines decreasing the shear value over the 96w.invest. The circulation is elongated and part of it lies over brunei once it gets out then it would develop.Promising convective clouds are developing near 96W.
huge cumulonimbus building over 96W.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/WPAC/96W.INVEST/vis/modis/hkm/full/20121112.0212.terra.x.vishkm.96WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-62N-1183E.90pc.html
Lots of thunder clouds seen.
yup
Foreca has not predicted any rains till 17th. remember foreca was accurate during Nilam.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
Cola Prediction.
foreca was accurate?It predicted ~80 mm on october 31st.
Both of their forecast are closely based on GFS.If the GFS going to swing the storm towards TN then their forecast will change.
The last thing I would want at this point is kea to be right.I really hope the upcoming system gives us atleast substantial rains.We cannot hope for another better system after this one.
Happy Diwali to All of You.
CTT is -60.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm
Kea,This season looks to be active till now.It has produced many disturbances.The rainfall for TN totally depends on the movement of the cyclones.There are times where the NEM was less active(less number of disturbances) but TN got good rainfall due to the movement of a system over TN.
This is actually the most frustrating part here.We get cyclones,so NEM is not a failure.They move away from us or don’t provide us with rains meaning it’s a regional failure of rains and not NEM itself.It’s as if nature is toying with us.
yo boys…. im gonna sing soup song……. flop song!!!
http://goo.gl/gG0KA
😛
Its a failure for only TN but the total NEM is a active one .
Overall pass but one optional subject fail. 😦
lets not talk about the regional failure of NEM.We are only in middle part of november.The models are swinging the system towards north currently it may change in future.Even if this system does not give rainfall there are many distubances to come till end of december.
Yes,you are right.We’ve remained optimistic till now.It won’t hurt us to remain so for the next few weeks.
🙂
Yes very true.
But we should hope that this system does not become a cyclone or anything above that category. A cyclone heading north so early in November is a bad sign for our monsoon.
If that happens then our monsoon will take another 15 days to revive after that.
Let us not lose hope….i cannot remember such a dry Diwali in the last decade!
recent ncep gfs model run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F12%2F2012+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ASIA&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=Asia&prevArea=ASIA&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=none&type=wind
Confirmation has arrived!!! 😦 Very huge system to rob all our moisture and may mark the end of NEM 2012!
don’t say this
We may need to send Prathiba to North BOB
they managed to move it on saturday. But it cant leave our shores until the case pending is solved, Given our legal system, expect this to take a few more months,
why months, even some years so that ship may become unusable by itself.
Looks like next rain might be from “Westla kilambudhu” ?
Raja, r u sure? Prathiba ship or parthasri?
U mean to say both? I meant only ship
Can somebody pls explain me why does the date of Diwali vary year on year?
2012 – 13th November (dry)
2011 – 26th October (very wet)
2010 – 5th November (little wet)
2009 – 17th October (dry)
2008 – 28th October (dry)
2007 – 9th November (dry)
2006 – 21st October (wet)
2005 – 1st November (dry)
Why does Ramzan vary every year?. The same reason. It falls on Amavasai day of Iyppai month
Ramzan is 11 days early every year. The same is not true with Diwali
according to the moon position..dates will vary…and it will be on : No- Moon Day on Aippasi month…
Where is our invest gone..whether it got dissipated ?…
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/index.asp
Let it be get dissipated….So that a fresh LPA will form near SL if the present clouds reach our coast….
kea: Something which follows moon won’t be same every year
i found my answer in the 2nd part of your reply.
😎 everything will be good only……
A Letter to Mahasen…
Dear Mahasen,
We are the guys who loves rain more than us…So if u form..kindly come near to us and produce the rains we need …and u can go any where..even u can go to America also…Otherwise kindly don’t form…
Kindly do the needful..
Thanks
Kea Members….
wow thats gr8 😉 Lol 🙂
😆 wonderful
Can we restrict only to IMD in predicting cyclone and avoid International models so that our confusion will be less
Happy Diwali to Mr.Ramanan