259 thoughts on “Dry Phase continues in Chennai, its an unusual November

    • I’m starting to think you’re right.Pretty Unusual.I hope that the unusual part is explained in excess rains.Pretty sure we’re all thinking the same.

  1. Top recent commentators as on 10th Nov

    Sudarshan – 168
    Hr649 – 150
    Parthasri35 – 141
    Selvafun – 96
    Raijin – 92
    Nellaivel – 48
    Karthikstorm – 47

    the list will be updated tomorrow as per above and will stand till 25th

  2. NEM is erratic and it depends on 3-4 systems, and couple of easterly waves.No system is confirmed to hit TN coast. Every thing has to happen in 45 days. If any system crosses coast, dry period for 5-10 days .Hence IMD plays safe by not predicting NEM unlike SWM

    • I do agree NEM is erractic… nilam has been spoiler this year… only savings Grace for nov is that s TN got good rains where Swm was flop… last year we had thane came at fag end of NEM..by that we had normal rains but Not this time around

  3. cyclone nilam strictly followed steering current (500hpa winds) n skipped the ridge, and at the last moment,upper level anticyclone moved into w.central bay tat made the way towards chennai!! http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/Images/month500a.gif but now the steering winds r not in favour for chennai, so the only hope lies within the ridge n position of upper level anticyclone getting placed .. http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/Images/week500a.gif

  4. with so much of confusion,we should stick to the original predictions made and wait for fate to unfold..never seen different models with different intrepretations as what we see now in GFS,Nogaps,ecmwf,cmc…NEM will remain a mystery

  5. Our only hope is that the anticyclone comes to the place where it was during nilam,or else laddu will become ant mochifyed

  6. I don’t care about the current path being forecast as if it is an LPA/D it would give us rains like 2010 december D. But if this becomes DD/TS, then nothing would be in store for us.

    • Have we not learnt our lessons yet.. What happened to Nilam.. so many models and so many different forecasts.. Ultimately Nilam had its own say.. all these models are only probabilities… and when they say its a forecast we shud also see what probability of that event happening.. that is something not mentioned in the model forecast.. and these models change as and when the parameters change… these models are yet to forecast reliably the parameter changes…

  7. Cyclone genesis

    CMC
    —–

    1st System

    CMC track shows a mslp of 990 mb and shows landfall close to north of Chennai on 16th

    2nd System

    To enter bay as a weakened storm on 17th, by the time 1st system would have made landfall

  8. its pure blue sky… with sun heating up… 80% chance of getting thunderstorms today evng… KR use say dis scenario… wen its blue and heat.. thunderstorms in evng….

  9. Cyclone genesis

    GFS
    ā€”ā€“

    1st System

    CMC track shows a mslp of 990 mb and moves away from TN Coast toward Orissa on 18th

    2nd System

    It dissipates in Malay Sea 0n 16th after landfall

  10. Rainfall :-

    TN, AP, Puducherry :- Nil

    KARNATAKA: Panambur 5, Mani (Dakshina Kannada dt) 4, Mangalooru 3, Kota (Udupi dt) 2 and Mangalooru airport 1.

    KERALA: Kozhikode, Thodupuzha (Idukki dt) and Neyyatinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt) 1 each.

  11. If system maintains with current model’s track, then i would say cfs is one of the best long-medium range forecasting model… I remember It showed the system with similiar recurving track hitting bangla/myanmar on nov 2.. Same cfs, predicted thane way before 16 days…

  12. Our Mahasen will grow bigger in size.

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sanew.htm

    Unlike other recent storms whose intensity is severe and sizewise smaller. Better to grow bigger and have maximum t2.5 to t3.0 intensity. More widespread rains and less distruction.

    Currently fighting out with VWS. VWS tendency is to decrease. Baby Mahasen will be active and kicking by tommorow morning. He may throw some rain bearing clouds towards Chennai by evening.

  13. INFO from one of the link posted before:

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are well known for their devastation, mainly due to torrential rains, strong winds and associated storm surges, which cause flooding, soil erosion and landslides, even far away from the landfall location, resulting in numerous human casualties and enormous property damage. These disasters are particularly severe over the North IndianOcean (NIO), comprising both the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian
    Sea (AS), as their coastal areas are heavily populated. In the past 300 years, out of all recorded cases of very heavy loss of life (ranging from about 5000 to well over 300 000) in the world due to TCs, more than 75% cases have occurred in the BoB andAS (WMOTechnical Report 2008).

    • Even if precautions are taken,the people in our country don’t want to trust the govt. and this results in a huge disaster.

      • That is because of predictions are wrong most of the time. Anyhow people needs to be educated. Apart from this, have you ever visited strom shelters and seen the facilities and quality of the food supplied? People even risk their life to avoid going there!

  14. How many of you think that the anonymous guy from twitter is jupijove? I feel it is him as no one would make a twitter account just to make 1 post in a blog.

  15. Submitted on 2012/11/10 at 3:19 pm
    Iā€™m changing as well.

    Rainy days : 9
    24 hr : 105
    100+ days : 1
    Total rainfall : 350

    I posted this yesterday and said 325 mm today

  16. Rainy days : 9
    24 hr : 105
    100+ days : 1
    Total rainfall : 350

    @kea

    I posted this yesterday, šŸ˜€

    So you have to change.

  17. Kea,we’ve had 2 2mm+ days this nov. The storm which came early morning and the one in the night came in the same day,but according to IMD scale it is 2 days

  18. Keaweather has already lost the contest by predicting 3 rainy days + 20mm max and a total of 85mm. It cant be right since atleast one of the other 2 rainy days will HAVE to yield more than 20mm šŸ˜›

  19. tomorrow night or day after tomorrow we may experience around 20 c or below 20 c and hpa likely to touch around 1013 to 1014. Thinks will change from 14th onwards.

  20. KR current dry phase because of that mercury or venus stuff that you were talking about earlier. when will that end by the way. can you tell us something about it .

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