395 thoughts on “2012 NEM: A long due failure for Chennai?

  1. What about the opinion of the experts who predicted bountiful NEM thanks to El Nino ? Time to look for new profession ? πŸ™‚
    Remember though even SWM in July was though to be failure and then it became normal monsoon in August and September.
    Its still only 12th November. December could be very different. So be patient.

  2. Hi as of now IMD says Lpa will form by tom.. let see how systΓ©m delevops.let hope the best …nature May spring up a surprise

  3. We all expected NILAM will give more rains..and it crossed chennai also..but we got empty hand…

    the same situation is going to happen here, but in reverse….

    it will not cross chennai but its going to give more rains to us….

    More frustrations …will bring close to us..

  4. @cat5hurricane

    As the sea is warmer than other regions near Pamban ,Kanyakumari etc.,

    The sea breeze will also be warmer,so the min temp won’t be so low.

  5. Nilam was a failure only for chennai. It was a god send gift for delta. Entire south Tn recieved very good rains. It saved the farmers. Chennai is in bad shape , no doubt. Lets hope we still scrape through to get our targets. With thousand of aprtments coming up , god knows how and where we are going to get water. My apartment in ramapuram gets about 1,00,000 litres per day from groundwater. Every week an apartment is being launched in chennai. Its time the government focusses on making other cities also to grow. Otherwise even if we become cherrapunji we cant supply water.

  6. The hard bitter fact is Chennai does not have water resources to support 10 million population which is still growing. The only city which has equipped well to deal with these kind of population in India is Mumbai. mahesh even other Tamilnadu cities and villages have water scarcity problems. The ultimate solution is population control, afforestation and water conservation. It is likely to get worse in the coming days. couple of years monsoon failure and subsequent chaos will be unimaginable.

  7. Tis is Wat i observed 4m the models for the past 2 days.. they r expecting a low 4m s.china sea along with a trough 4m east-s.east direction . As per them, tis wil push the ridge towards nw direction 4m east central bay , towards interior and tis is allowing the bay system to move n recurve twrds myanmar… Am nt sure ,tis is just my analysis. If ther is a Delay or s.china sea system failed to intensify,the ridge stays near 16N so the entire scenario wil change , and system wil hit n.tn-s.ap.,tis is just my prediction… Lets c wats gng to happen

  8. November rainfall upto 12th, month total in brackets

    2011 – 192 mm (451)
    2010 – 163 mm (275)
    2009 – 486 mm (562)

    2008 – 9 mm (560)
    2007 – 4 mm (275)
    2006 – 123 mm (236)

    2005 – 343 mm (608)
    2004 – 275 mm (280)
    2003 – 54 mm (85)

    2002 – 579 mm (580)
    2001 – 200 mm (387)
    2000 – 46 mm (190)

    Hope Chennai follows the 2008 pattern this year

  9. Kea’s pessimic fever is spreading like Dengue. Conditions are favourable for further spread of this fever. The only cure is torrential rains. I hope everybody is cured of this fever by this week end!

  10. Well yes we have less trees , more concrete etc , the same is the fact in singapore too…..it rains daily there but the fact is the government is proactice and so the singaporeans….every millilitre of water is juiced out of sewage treatment and recycled to highest standards and reused…whereas if it rains 1700mm per year in chennai only 700 goes to storage whereas 1000 goes back to sea..courtesy chennai corporation…still india and chennai rocks..we have our own style of living…
    ithula vera joke enna na…30 floors of apartment buildings..they name it as palace etc..sitting on rocks with back waters around it ( sea water ) in and around omr…appo tanker water than palace su ku…30th floor thanni varalana…bucket than…ninachi parunga pa…one crore minimum price of apartment. monthly maintenence charge 5000rs

  11. There are 2 systems in bay at the same time. This is confirmed by IMD.

    On is at the north bay is which forming now. On 19th it is moved towards mayanmar.

    The one near TN coast is the one which came South China Sea. Due to this system we will get rains. That too after 20th only.

    The extreme peninsula india will get rains from 14th. That is south TN again.

  12. Now no model predicts cyclone coming close to chennai except ECMWF 😦

    Hope this becomes like Laila where no one predicted rains and we got 19 cm

    • Oh,ensemble says the system coming from Pacific merges with this and causes westward movement if you notice carefully.

  13. Everybody was laughing at my predictions. But I had spent a lot of time analysing all the models before coming to the conclusion

    I know this is not the best thing to happen for Chennai. Hope some system forms in Bay and dumps 20-30 cm for us later this month

  14. Jupi/Selvan,

    I know we will get our portion. I cant accept to KEA as he says it is a failure.

    HPA is so high near TN. That is why it is so cool nowadays. Also there is a forecast for some more cooler nights for next 48 hours.

    This hpa has to shift towards north to get rainfall.

    • Its not like we have no system at al.. we’ve some, compared to other seasons now.. but the path is jus varying and factors gng against us marginally.. we cannot conclude its a failure even b4 d birth of the upcoming systems..

  15. Most of the models are swinging the system away from TN coast for past 12 hours.The system circulation is expected to be a large one as per models since its forming inside a large trough.If the system is going to be large then 2nd system is going to struggle.A upper anticyclone is developing over the sumatra coast which would decrease the shear over the south bay.Looks like this anticyclone will provide low shear to the system in its path.

  16. Huge upper anticyclone over the phillipines decreasing the shear value over the 96w.invest. The circulation is elongated and part of it lies over brunei once it gets out then it would develop.Promising convective clouds are developing near 96W.

  17. The last thing I would want at this point is kea to be right.I really hope the upcoming system gives us atleast substantial rains.We cannot hope for another better system after this one.

  18. Kea,This season looks to be active till now.It has produced many disturbances.The rainfall for TN totally depends on the movement of the cyclones.There are times where the NEM was less active(less number of disturbances) but TN got good rainfall due to the movement of a system over TN.

  19. Can somebody pls explain me why does the date of Diwali vary year on year?

    2012 – 13th November (dry)
    2011 – 26th October (very wet)
    2010 – 5th November (little wet)
    2009 – 17th October (dry)
    2008 – 28th October (dry)
    2007 – 9th November (dry)
    2006 – 21st October (wet)
    2005 – 1st November (dry)

  20. A Letter to Mahasen…

    Dear Mahasen,

    We are the guys who loves rain more than us…So if u form..kindly come near to us and produce the rains we need …and u can go any where..even u can go to America also…Otherwise kindly don’t form…

    Kindly do the needful..

    Kea Members….

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