With good rains all over TN, IMD will declare that NEM rains have commenced. More showers can be expected today and into the weekend,
With good rains all over TN, IMD will declare that NEM rains have commenced. More showers can be expected today and into the weekend,
KeaWeather Archives 
Heavy overnite rains in Adambakkam..steady drizzle continues…
BBC’s first predcition of the cyclone is out..the depression can be seen over Andamans..but i doubt whether it wud take the same path as GFS suggests! it mite move in a NW direction initially..
Very disappointing figures from chennai ap and cuddalore ..18mm and 25mm respectively till 5 30.. tiruchi,coimbatore 1cm…
But Nellore 44mm
Foreca forecast not looking good for chennai.but nellore forecast looks great on nov 6th 😦
Omg…6cm rain in nungamabakkam !!…ntin ere but heavy drizzles overni8 ….till now jus 8mm in the ni8….so with that 20mm from 11.30,12.30 n 2.30 spells its 28mm ere…
After heavy overnight rains drizzling still continues here in Nungambakkam
Karthik from where you are getting those rainfall figures I searched in IMDCHENNAI and could find only yesterdays data.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2010&MO=10&BASIN=WPAC&STORM_NAME=99W.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc10/WPAC/16W.CHABA/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi
This is the one which is expected to enter the bay.
Hi Guna… i ll see here.. and search for cities and then choose current weather and then precipitation
Available cities:
TN- Chennai,Cuddalore,Coimbatore,Tiruchi, K Kumari
Karnataka – Bangalore,Mangalore,Chitradurga,Belgaum
AP- Hyderabad,vizag,kurnool
Kerala- Kochi,Kozhikode,Trivandrum
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/satellite?LANG=en&CONT=asie&CREG=inir&STRUCTUR=maps
looks like end of ne monsoon for t.n 😦 😦 😦
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=192&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0
@Jon did u see that kerala coast getting rains even that time in the map? 😐 😐
Ncep cyclone forecast
looks good
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=gfs_swasia&dtg=2010102818&prod=prp&tau=180
Hopefully today too we can get good rains .
JOn,
Already given up on the monsoon. Its just started.
why end of NEM..??……nothin is alarming as of now..btw heavy drizzles continue ere…heavy rain likely towards after noon
Kn, that bluddy cyclone sucking in all the moisture from arabian sea thats why rains have been forecasted for kerala.hopefully the course of cyclone changes towards t.n or let it be a l.p or dep that can benefit both t.n and a.p
http://www.imdkolkata.gov.in/currentwx.php?s_1=1
nungumbakkam 62
minambakkam – only 18
Showering pretty well why is rain rate 0?
BBC weather, last year monsoon’s most accurate forecaster, is predicting good rains for tonite.
Sachin, rain had stopped and only now drizzles has started again.
Its still not heavy enough
Foreca predicting good rains for today and tomo but not looking good after that
https://keaweather.wordpress.com/wp-admin/index.php?page=stats&blog=385795&view=postviews&numdays=-1&summarize
KN U were asking something abt the stats right. I thinking we are holding good even without Kar. Just imagine what happens if he becomes regular
Just 21mm over my house on Velachery road.
Hi KN, KR, Suma, Ssuresh.
Very useful rains over chennai city last night. 6 centimeters some what mediocre to start with.
latest radar indicates there may not be any immediate rains as no signs towards north or north east up to 100 KMS.
but things might change. as satellite picture reveals lot of clouds over chennai and south andhra pradesh coast.
we need a good low pressure area in Bay to bring some more useful rains for another 2 days.
ss.
If Jal sticks to the latest predictions, its going to dump a lot of rain in Chennai.
I dont rule out a repeat of the Deep Depression of 2005
is it 100% sure that a cyclone is going to form in the first place ?
Thank you very much for the info Karthik Narayan
Sachin,
Chances are good for a system. It could be a Depression or a cyclone depending on other factors.
Hi Kea,
So when can we expect this deep depression to start? In the next couple of days or so?
Moreover, Chennai AP has got very less rainfall when compared to city. Any specific reason for this?
Sun started shining again very brightly . Any heavy rains today ? Why is wind blowing from north west not north east ?
Latest model runs not looking good, but as kea said, there might be a lot of rain from peripheral bands of the system.
I wish the system would form closer to Sumatra, as that will give rise to better prospects of rain for Chennai.
N is what’s important.
NW or NE does not matter much. It should take 3-4 days to be NE. Even then some days will be NW.
rains will decrease after Nov 1st becoz of the developing cyclone..BBC’s prediction is more reliable than GFS..hope it predicts the path to TN 🙂
Sun out? Not here yet.
BOB still has lots of clouds according to radar. Chennai looking good for couple of showers during the day
lots of rainfall activity over e about 150km.rains should reach us by late afternoon
Convection starting to explode to the north of 99W.invest current position 7.5N 11.28 E..It will become a depression or a tropical storm ‘Aere’ and in next 48 hours.It should move towards bay since it is going to form in gulf of thailand it is going to retain the same name.
sat showing lots of activity over malay peninsula and n.sumatra
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/fdp-cyc-ir.htm
Vinodh,
A BOB cyclone cannot retain the same name, hence will be renamed
Ehsan, how is it possible? since the circulation is going to be same the name wont be changed.In 2005 when circulation of Typhoon Durian entered in andhaman sea.IMD has monitored it as depression Durian only.Even typhoon gay the same case but in 1980’s there was no naming sytem in bay.Normally they wont give a different name unless there is any change in the low level circulation..It all depends on IMD they may give local name too.lets wait and see..But if it is going to be named Aere in gulf of thailand then JTWC and NRLMRY will maintain the same only .
If the cyclone is goin to hit TN for sure, then we have to rename it in Tamil 😀 😀 😀
any suggestion for names? 🙂
Muniyandi 🙂
Where is thunderjove?? even his post is becoming rarity as Karthik Raghavans.
am here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😆
KR,NEM is goin to be fine there is no immediate end.
Hi shyam , i thought even you are studying like karthik for 24*7 hours..Best friends always listen to each other 🙂
Imd chennai has updated the rainfall in last 24 hours ended 8.30 AM as 63 MMs for nungambakkam and 21 Mms for meenambakkam.
we are exactly short by another 10 centimeters for this month, but still 3 full days to go.
still radar indicates possibilities of rain after noon.
ss
Surech, 14 more cm for this month. Normal is 283. We have got only 142
oh vinodh i am not like KR studying 24*7………… 😉
now gfs showing cyclone hitting lanka TN……………….. 🙂
okay :)..The exact track will be clear only when the cyclone comes close to eastern coast.
thanks KEA for the corrections.
any further rains today ??
it seems clouds are in open sea not moving towards west.
ss
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=180&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0 hitting nagai now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂
Shyam, Which forecast says SL?
According to GFS, the system is already there and we should see it from tomorrow onwards
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201010281800&VAR=prec&HH=9&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
according to Foreca, which always underpredicts,
65 mm until Sunday nite
kea, lat gfs looks great but next update may be different again 🙂 😦
rains approaching Chennai. Should be here between 1 and 3
foreca 65mm=120mm always u can double the amount and in this case our oct monthly rainfall ll be normal 🙂
but foreca yest predicted 20mm for a.p thats what a.p has exactly got 😉
Thursday Night Thunderstorm. Low: 26 °C . Wind NNE 32 km/h . 80% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 50.20 mm).
WU prediction
According to WU, winds to be NNE from tomorrow
dark clouds already here, can start even before 1
man kea the latest gfs 00z showing jal ocer karaikal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=180&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0
its getting dark here too 🙂
Kea What is the website WU you are referring?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=13.060%2C80.250
WU – weather underground
showery drizzle in mount
does n e know what imd waiting for? Cant they declare onset
Drizzle in T.nagar also
rainfall at most places in TN is needed kea.. and wind dir should be ENE.. are these 2 satisfied?
Dark clouds in Velachery and strong wind also. Any time we can expect rain.
They are very conservative so they don’t want to take any chance will do it only after all weather sites are in agreement of onset
Nogaps model showing a similar path of GFS
NOGAPS
———–
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_tropio&dtg=2010102900&prod=prp&tau=180&set=Tropical
GFS
———
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=gfs_tropio&dtg=2010102900&prod=prp&tau=180
hope rains do come as predicted
Right now it’s drizzling decently in adyar
heavy drizzle for the past 15min
IMD declares monsoon
ECMWF and NCMRWF T254 also showing similar path to GFS and NOGAPS. Now, these are among the most reliable models……
There’s reason to hope for rains from this cyclone.
Tirupathi 54mm
Still heavy drizzles on
guru
as i had predicted earlier chennai has crossed 100 cm
This looks much better http://www.foreca.mobi/7d.php?l=101264527
This looks even better http://www.foreca.mobi/7d.php?l=101267887
Northeast monsoon rains commenced over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining areas of South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Rayalaseema and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh on today the 29th October 2010
Kodaikanal,Madurai 2cm
New city -3cm
ECMWF to changed its track
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0
ECMWF too changed its track
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0
Why only on and off drizzles . When can we excpect heavy rain ?
Is it raining in your city ???
http://isitraining.in/
@ Jon,
ECMWF too changed its track – what does this imply for us? Positive or negative impact Jon?
Why is it raining site showing as n for chennai today?
short spell of heavy shower to start now
raining now
radar also indicates some sharp showers for few minutes and after some time followed by steady mild drizzle, as we could notice lot of white & blue patches spreading towards chennai city.
in fact now in anna salai, steady heavy drizzling for the past 10 minutes.
ss.
Atlast pouring in Nungambakkam
Jon, is it pouring in our place?
Hymm stopped
@kea.
What about the possibility of rains in Chennai AP and surrounding areas…this is becoming a big cause of concern.
Nothing much in adyar
Guys Chennai crossed 1000 mm for this year.