142 thoughts on “North East monsoon begins

  1. BBC’s first predcition of the cyclone is out..the depression can be seen over Andamans..but i doubt whether it wud take the same path as GFS suggests! it mite move in a NW direction initially..

  2. Omg…6cm rain in nungamabakkam !!…ntin ere but heavy drizzles overni8 ….till now jus 8mm in the ni8….so with that 20mm from 11.30,12.30 n 2.30 spells its 28mm ere…

  3. why end of NEM..??……nothin is alarming as of now..btw heavy drizzles continue ere…heavy rain likely towards after noon

  4. Kn, that bluddy cyclone sucking in all the moisture from arabian sea thats why rains have been forecasted for kerala.hopefully the course of cyclone changes towards t.n or let it be a l.p or dep that can benefit both t.n and a.p

  5. Very useful rains over chennai city last night. 6 centimeters some what mediocre to start with.

    latest radar indicates there may not be any immediate rains as no signs towards north or north east up to 100 KMS.

    but things might change. as satellite picture reveals lot of clouds over chennai and south andhra pradesh coast.

    we need a good low pressure area in Bay to bring some more useful rains for another 2 days.


  6. Hi Kea,

    So when can we expect this deep depression to start? In the next couple of days or so?

    Moreover, Chennai AP has got very less rainfall when compared to city. Any specific reason for this?

  7. Latest model runs not looking good, but as kea said, there might be a lot of rain from peripheral bands of the system.
    I wish the system would form closer to Sumatra, as that will give rise to better prospects of rain for Chennai.

  8. rains will decrease after Nov 1st becoz of the developing cyclone..BBC’s prediction is more reliable than GFS..hope it predicts the path to TN πŸ™‚

  9. Convection starting to explode to the north of 99W.invest current position 7.5N 11.28 E..It will become a depression or a tropical storm ‘Aere’ and in next 48 hours.It should move towards bay since it is going to form in gulf of thailand it is going to retain the same name.

  10. Ehsan, how is it possible? since the circulation is going to be same the name wont be changed.In 2005 when circulation of Typhoon Durian entered in andhaman sea.IMD has monitored it as depression Durian only.Even typhoon gay the same case but in 1980’s there was no naming sytem in bay.Normally they wont give a different name unless there is any change in the low level circulation..It all depends on IMD they may give local name too.lets wait and see..But if it is going to be named Aere in gulf of thailand then JTWC and NRLMRY will maintain the same only .

  11. If the cyclone is goin to hit TN for sure, then we have to rename it in Tamil πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    any suggestion for names? πŸ™‚

  12. Imd chennai has updated the rainfall in last 24 hours ended 8.30 AM as 63 MMs for nungambakkam and 21 Mms for meenambakkam.

    we are exactly short by another 10 centimeters for this month, but still 3 full days to go.

    still radar indicates possibilities of rain after noon.


  13. They are very conservative so they don’t want to take any chance will do it only after all weather sites are in agreement of onset

  14. ECMWF and NCMRWF T254 also showing similar path to GFS and NOGAPS. Now, these are among the most reliable models……

    There’s reason to hope for rains from this cyclone.

  15. Northeast monsoon rains commenced over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining areas of South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Rayalaseema and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh on today the 29th October 2010

  16. radar also indicates some sharp showers for few minutes and after some time followed by steady mild drizzle, as we could notice lot of white & blue patches spreading towards chennai city.

    in fact now in anna salai, steady heavy drizzling for the past 10 minutes.


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