South West Monsoon (SWM) has withdrawn from some more parts of the country including Vidharba, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Marathwada, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka. Further Withdrawal likely in next 2-3 days.
The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) over North Bay of Bengal persists. It is likely to dissipate in next 24- 48 Hours. The dry air extending from North India to North TN, is likely to bring down the night temperatures across interiors.
UAC over Lakshadweep and Maldives has weakened further and continues as a weaker system, resulting in isolated Thunderstorms over Kerala and South Tamilnadu.
Chennai – Day to remain dry and sunny with day temp likely to be around 33C. Night temp likely to fall by 1C and will be around 23-24C.
Coimbatore – To remain comfortable during the day, with temp around 31C.
Vellore – Due to dry air influence, night temp likely to fall to 21C, day to remain moderate and temp will be 33C.
Trichy – Day to remain partly cloudy, with max temp touching 34C.
Madurai – Temple town day temp will be around 34C, with possibility of isolated thunderstorm during evening or night.
KeaWeather Archives 
any clear picture about the onset possible today ?
Between 25-28 onset is possible
This year nem very worst I think surely Tn getting deficient
Wait for onset and then u can see back to back systems and wet weather. Normal to excess NEM possibility this year. Don’t post anything negative before onset. Onset will happen between 22 – 26th oct
Agreed. This year is going to be an excess NEM. Onset likely next weekend
Yes from oct last week we can see lot of Easterly Waves, LPA and Depression. November going to be very wet
iam waiting 😉
What negative posting you are talking about. …off late everything is going negative onnly in spite of talking positive. ….NEM was predicted to set in by oct 18th to 20th…now 22….26 25 …28
Oct 18 – 20 is set to be a normal onset for NEM but this year due to western pacific typhoons easterlies getting disturbed and it is expected to enter central BOB within next 2 days. Now Easterlies have reached till andaman and the winds touching 35 knots over there and there is a trough forming near Srilanka and this will provide good Rains to South Tamilnadu and parts of Central Tamilnadu and North Tamilnadu expected to receive light Rains. Onset expected to sets In between oct 22 – 26 by strong easterly wave.
Just wait till Easterlies arrival to our coasts then everything will turn good
OK because I am so upset my place continue 20 days dry weather only
Still monsoon hasn’t set, So don’t come to an conclusion.. Late monsoon ‘s not a defi monsoon.. Wait until it sets..
Not at all
Please let me know if anyone knows about local parameters that can bring the NEM-rainfall onset over TN? I would like to update my knowledge regarding those local effects in bringing monsoonal rainfalls to our shores. Its better to know about these local effects if someone wants to establish RMCs/RSMCs 🙂
At 37.2°C, city equals highest October temp in a decade
The day temperatures in south Mumbai too was up by two degrees above normal, recorded at 34.8 degrees Celsius. (Arijit Sen/HT photo)
Badri Chatterjee, Hindustan Times, Mumbai |
Updated: Oct 16, 2015 00:25 IST
The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from Goa and Konkan region on Thursday.
India meteorological department (IMD) had forecast on Wednesday that the southwest monsoon would further withdraw over more parts of Jharkhand, most parts of Chhattisgarh, remaining parts of Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat state and north Arabian Sea, entire Marathwada, Konkan and Goa and some parts of Odisha, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka and central Arabian Sea within two to three days.
But it withdrew quicker than expected even as some of the 13 centres in the state witnessed moderate to heavy rainfall during the post-monsoon season.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/goa/Southwest-monsoon-withdraws-over-Goa-Konkan/articleshow/49395831.cms
Global warming may help alleviate China’s drought and flooding problems as monsoons move north, scientists say
In their recent paper published in the influential research journal the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, a team of scientists led by Professor Yang Shiling
reported that such a paradigm shift would “soon occur” in China.
http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-research/article/1867515/global-warming-may-help-alleviate-chinas-drought-and-flooding
mazhaiye varalla adukkula night temperatures reduction?
Seasonal change sunspot!
gud morning blogerrs 😉
Looking great!
just need to wait for 10 more days to get our beloved rainy days 😉 .
2 distinct rainy bands visible, which will merge each other to set up much awaited Chennai system.
First time this season I see clouds moving East to West. Hope rain breaks in to Chennai soon
அடுத்த 24 மணி நேரத்தில் தென் தமிழகத்தில் கன மழைக்கு வாய்ப்பு.
In next 24 hrs South Tamilnadu will see Heavy Rains
From next week or in another 10 days all bloggers will be commenting on my area received this much…awesome smashing bucketing pelting rains from the famous our own NEM and all will forget the late onset or whatever uncertainty that remains now.
this too will pass away (ithuvum kadanthu pogum)
Experts in blog have rightly said the delay in NEM onset(and not deficient NEM) and belief in their forecast is more important.
Nature will have the final say.
Lets thing positive and enjoy the weather pattern be it dew sunshine or rain.
I certainly believe that we will have a normal NEM this year.
enjoy blogging and lets learn weather in this forum.
wat is the moral of the story sir
porunthirungal…NEM on the way.
Easterly Clouds roaming around Chennai looking dense and huge Cumulus. Today Clouds are really looking dense and carrying some large water droplets in it and for the first time since winds turned to east on 11th oct.
Isolated drizzles and Passing Showers possibility in parts of Chennai
what about HPA? nights have become bit sultry?
Easterlies have entered BOB and HPA will move away in next 2 – 3 days and we will see passing showers over north coastal tamilnadu
ohhh good…
is it raining in KK nagar
chumma comedy pannathinga…nijamava
sorry it was a question sorry i did not notice just too much enthu………no cloud ….rains illa
im not able to see the building in that direction from ambit .
Jiii athu visibility problem due to HPA.
Foggy Morning.
Temp was lower than yesterday morning.
Long distance buildings are not visible.
Sun in the morning was in lightish yellow.
Clouds from East to West.
HPA dominating.
We are into winter from today.
This is pointed out in today’s topic.
Last today’s sun appeared orange until 7 in morning.
Then Where is NEM?
NEM Start Ku Munadiye Winter aa??
there is gap, hence hpa will fill that space.
hence we have hpa here, once NEM starts, everything will change.
I think in nature every thing is to be filled that since there is no NEM or SWM HPA filled the gap
Dust Storm Hits Kanpur,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kanpur/Dust-storm-hits-Kanpur-affects-visibility-for-driving-snaps-power/articleshow/49393816.cms?intenttarget=no&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=Top_Headlines
Is this pre-NEM or pre-SWM season??😇😇😇
El nino season
Pointu👌 I expected this answer literally👍😆
Hazy sunshine here and No wind …
Pressure increasing all over bay.. and winds are slowly changing westerly in south.china sea and slowly the impact will b felt in bay.. people who r not convinced with pacific effect can have a look on sat image.. it is expected to go worse in next few days.
Till Koppu makes N/NE turn, West-Pacific will exhibit effect on BOB. Then later onwards BOB will rule for some time😆👍
What a clean slate raised in our favourite Elnino year😂😂😂http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Clean slate will help to write new stories
Rao/selvan… i am really tensed on this year…too much delay already
Nice to see more and more addition, if rainfall details of other areas of Chennai and Other areas, other than official readings are maintained in an excel sheet it will be useful, and can be witnessed for ready reference all time
How system more than 5000 Kms away influencing weather in Chennai.
that is a real mystery. most of the model say west pacific killing our seasonal rains. even thailand meterology says north east monsoon winds set in over gulf of thailand followed by few showers for the past 2 days. But most of IMD models deny that. in the meanwhile IMD announced an UAC over south east bay. totally cotradicting reports. i feel some rains would commence by sunday.
ss
see where is thailand and where is scs and bay.
the latitudinal difference is there, the latitude below 15N of thailand has impact of this WP system, but thailand will not have the same.
still thailand distance wise less than 2000 KMS, but where bay of begal still more distance. could be around 3000 KMS. any way let us wait and see for another 2 days.
ss
pls dont see distance, first understand what we are saying. NEM winds has to come from SCS, not in Bay.
you say south china sea triggers our monsoon winds. the winds can as well reach from top of burma and extreme north andaman sea. even from nepal side, the siberia high pressure can dominate. difficult to understand. any way IMD follows some basis and we have to accept. wait and see.
ss
It enters through south andaman sea only, when reaching bay it climbs up in latitude and then reach NTN.
also in thailand the wind pattern will change from 18th or 19th approx from NE to N or NW winds.
What is the prediction for India SA odi on 22nd. Will that be washed out ? :p
Hmm… not this time around. Match will go on…
I think we have some dry days ahead except 19th, that is also not a big one.
Shall we learn something.
I need Selva, GTS and PJ to be present without leave.
Yesterday evening mangadu TS near Tambaram has moved in SW direction, i saw that movement.
Now that is shown in PAC as of 08.30 IST today. Moderate rainfall occurred in those regions.
Surface level easterly wind has set in.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-277.88,11.90,1109
Cloudy here.
IMD Morning Bulletin,
♦ The upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea & neighborhood now lies over southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.
Is it intensifing??
All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in collaboration with Melbourne Institute of Technology in Australia is working towards developing low-cost helmets having better ventilation for Indian weather conditions, which is mostly hot and humid.
Light showers in south chattisgarh and khammam warangal districts border areas
Wat about hyderabad?
Very hot and dry….
Minimum temperature also high.
22.6 degrees which is 3 degrees above normal
I really did not like 2015 weather…
Very harsh weather starting from february
Ecmwf reconfirmed excess rainfall for south tamilnadu for the NDJ season with very high probability ..chennai including north tn shown as no signal so it can b taken as normal (but anything might happen)..unfortunately nellore under below normal category
They are taking the basics of ELNINO, but i still feel that even NTN in for excess rainfall this time.
stat prob plays very huge role
esp coastal belt in NTN may receive it is very localsied phenomenon
Nellore town received 560 mm till now..
Still 462 mm is needed to catch up normal rainfall
lot of clouds from no where…ypical NEM starting stage Clouds…east has quite a bit of thick clouds
Looks like onset will happen much earlier.
R u serious or joking jii..
serious.
Then good…
how? very sudden appearance of greyish clouds how come today
surface level wind too changed to easterly from today morning, this is bringing some moisture at lower levels, this is getting reflected.
See the radiation transmitted is still high. But see the blue patch from Andaman will start icreasing towards TN.
ithuthan fire…
Yes…spot on
nice to see you are back to your original form of supporting rains.
I was saying this last few days and challenging it too.
Pradeep i expect onset within 25th not beyond that which would be delay in monsoons. I predict bulk rains for Kanyakumari, Tuticorin, Nagapatinam, puducherry districts along with NTN
Selva ECMWF is not King in rainfall in our basin. I am sure STN will get excess rains but north too will gets its share.
There is yet another typhoon, named ‘Champi’ located even farther out into the West Pacific, whichis expected to veer off course towards Japan much before it can reach anywhere near the Philippines.
‘Koppu,’ and to a lesser extent, ‘Champi’ would impact the wind flows over the Bay of Bengal, which are
just about turning northeasterly, as is what is seasonally expected.
These flows will be progressively forced to turn clockwise to feed the twin typhoons in the
Pacific; the net-effect is that the onset of northeast monsoon would bedelayed.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/typhoon-koppu-seen-forcing-winds-away-from-bay-of-bengal/article7769142.ece
There is a trough extending from WB to West Central Bay at mid level, this is bringing those clouds to chennai now…
pic for your reference.
Trough at mid level running from WB to West Central Bay bringing these cloud activity over Chennai. Pic attached.
Please don’t expect Gala Onset. We have to prepare ourselves to call that as onset and wait for actual rain to come.
8 days to go..trough of low over tn coast adj mannar
onset possible between 25th and 27th, but some rain before that cannot be ruled out
As mentioned earlier please be ready to receive rains – a prelude to NEM- by this weekend
An upper air cyclonic circulation now prevailing over south east bay of bengal. expected to spread to south central bay by tomorrow.
ss
From Napier Bridge In Chennai During Sunset
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/v/t1.0-9/q85/s720x720/10458714_737263443014242_3609934253744533761_n.jpg?oh=cfcdb865a3b98f5bf76a6072c6b5bd15&oe=56CAED95&__gda__=1456065091_e1f022233af88506a344a6c52e97f4ba
This is the place above my hostel in Srivenkateswara University where I used to visit a loads of times whenever it rains.
2010 – 2014 (Golden time for me)
Lush green in November..pic before electrical Engg department
Is this Tirupati?
Yes….SVU tirupati
@maisuh:disqus,
If bay is not affected, then why this wind pattern changing in Bay when WP system closing in over Philippines on 20 and 21.
see the wind pattern again changes over Thailand too…
this is a predicted picture. let us see the reality after 2 or 3days.
ss
Even system in bay will trigger westerly winds over TN if system moves north for some days.
Even today the recurvature scenarios are challenging for computer models. In west Pacific, they have been facing this one since the early 1900 s , when it was all to deal with upper air sounding data to interpolate and come up with synoptic charts. The break point in the ridge, ridge extension that happens unexpectedly, or eastward moving upper level anticyclone…the list goes on…
Bay is beginning to heat up to help the formation big one like HUD HUD
Hudhud aa?? how’s that possible?
gulf of thailand 9.5 north & 120 east. so longtitude wise nearly 25 degree east of bay of bengal. but Thailand says north east monsoon sets in over southern thailand. all reports – lot of mismatch. interesting to observe. let us see, how wind changes in gulf of thailand tomorrow.
ss
Koppu continues to move westward along the southern periphery of the ridge, due to an extension
As i said yesterday that Eastward movement of Trade winds would have caused a Mid to Low level ridge over West Pacific, this is making the system to move westwards, otherwise this would have moved northerly from the beginning and NEM would have not got disturbed and would have set already.
Winds Changing Into Westerlies Again???
No
what i feel apart from south china sea, the high pressure zones over central & north burma also contributes to NEM winds over bay of bengal. Once SWM totally withdrawn from bangaladesh, myanmar & west bengal, probably the high pressure would dominate over central & north burma. I think this would happen with in a day or two, once SWM winds totally cease over remaining parts of extreme east india.
SS
Prominent ensemble models continues to expect High intensity mjo wave to move into indian ocean by early nov !!! watchout fro some action in arb sea and bob!!
In School, we are taught that SW Monsoon winds will hit himalayas and turn back as NE Monsoon since it is not possible for that go beyond that.
That theory still holds good to some extent.
OCT shining as expected!!!
anybody know about forecast for Nov 28th?
Hot and sunny
gr8. We all can run the dusk to dawn night marathon then
Lol
Here you go on the update of trade winds.
Westerly anomaly has extended westward towards WP as on 12th.
Easterly anomaly over EQ IO is continuing, this shows the strength of Positive IOD as of 12th.
Upper level easterly winds weakened as of 12th over WP, MTC and EIO.
As of now MJO related positive olr prevailing over IO, this will become weak in next 7 days and start to change negative by 23rd. Hence we need to wait for NEM till 25th.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf4
Can we expect big flash from IMD with respect to NEM in the afternoon bulletin?
Provided our Dr Rao allows usage of “Flash” by IMD
How about a bulletin like this in today’s afternoon report by IMD:
==================================================
“SWM will withdraw from the whole of country in next 2-3 days and subsequently NEM will begin in TamilNadu, Kerala and parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh”
The first line already there in today’s posting see below. The second will never happen. Only after really seeing the rains they might issue a statement
how? no widespread showers in visibility.
Exactly that is why they might issue statement on 27th morning saying NEM sets in TN
Just alpa aasai!
Is there any instance of a day of heavy rain(onset) and completely less rains the next few days?
no.. onset period is always a content of 2-3 days rainfall
So, what we need is good activity in interiors(pre monsoon showers) followed by WS rains in Coastal TN(persistent in more than 75% of stations).
coastal stretch getting continuos rainfall would do
Is they released this??
Expecting in a week or so.
No
Yes – “intha aandum mazhai kuraivaga peiyum enna vaanilai aaraichiyalarkal kurukinrana.”
paul roundy’s page expects twin event possibilities in indian ocean!! one in arb sea on nov 3rd , and the other one in andaman sea around 6th of november with very high prob
It’s se bay not Andaman sea sel
Will it be useful for us?
nothing is guaranteed as of now.. the vent may happen but movement cant b judged so early
SE bay adjoining Andaman sea
Does anyone know the tamil translations for LPA, WML, DD etc?, like குறைந்த காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வு மண்டலம் for?
Depression
Ameen has all tamil translations for these!
Lpa- kaatrazhutha thaazhvu paguthi
Wml- theevara kaatrazhutha thaazhvu paguthi
Depression – kaatrazhutha thaazhvu mandalam
Dd – theevara / aazhantha kaatrazhutha thaazhvu mandalam
Cyclone – Puyal
Severe cyclone – theevara Puyal
Super cyclone – aasura Puyal
Cheers., நன்றி.
You are from TN by any chance as I know that you are in Domlur now?
Born and brought up in B’lore, Native near Tenkasi.
Good. Thanks!
Nothing for UAC and LWD?
Kaatru azhutha thazhvu nilai
thaazhvu nilai is low pressure area or low pressure trough..
Then UAC is suzharchi
Upper air cyclonic circulation : உயர்மட்ட இடஞ்சுழிக்காற்று, acc to the glossary.
That’s text book stuff for you!
Click to access Tamil%20glossary.pdf
Wow, thanks a lot!, useful while listening to Ramanan sir this year on TV.
Strong Negative OLR over Coastal TN on 20th.
Selva,
OLR map does not show any system during first week of November, showing a strong system from south bay moving towards TN and cross TN coast by 2nd week only.
which model?
kyle macritchie..
link pls.. it maybe cfs
yes,
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php
its cfs
that cfs is very much consistent that it shows the month end system crosses TN coast by 02nd november.
i am seeing this for the past 10 days at least.
it badly needs an update.. initial run is outdated i think
no its 14th, click on the ZERO.
yeah sorry..it shows it updated
Many of us are running the Dusk to Dawn Night marathon scheduled to be held on November 28th. This marathon is held for a charitable cause.
3k, 5k, 10k and 21k categories available or if you want to do cycling you can take part too.
Hoping to see many bloggers turn up for the run that night
http://d2dchennaimarathon.com/
Churning out to the east of Philippine archipelago…CDO has obscured llcc….but it’s just stacked well and looks explosive…
If a decent to strong cyclone crosses ntn adj south ap below ongole latitude on exact deepavali day ? Omg.. Unimaginable….
Uac- Mel aduku suzharchi
Trough of low – kaatrazhutha thaazhvu nilai
Same typical climate happened on last year before onset day that is October 16…
But Tommorrow we can’t expect rains like October 17,2014 the day which has gave 161 mm to nungambakkam and 181 mm to marina
Cumulus clouds in East in vellore too..
On and off sunny with pleasant climate…
But today feeling some humid compare to last 3-4 days
any possibility of UAC over south east bay turns in to low pressure system in another 24 hours ??
SS
trough of low possible
Latest GFS has removed month end system. Showing the onset on 26th.
they will add again dont worry 😉
Pleasant climate in chennai. As expected surface winds have turned easterly. Good things are on the way
Atlast ur wish fulfilled with Easterlies.. No problem in temperature…
But rains? Rains?? Rains????
Mumbai – 37.4 c with 70-80% average humidity in day time
Onset will be surely on 19th with few spells for Chennai
This,year ll mimic 2012 October onset if u r right . Imd struggled to announce onset in 2012
winds turned totally easterly. from tomorrow early morning mild showers drizzling not ruled out. normally early morning showers are quite common to NEM Season. Even dry air dominating in the last 3 days are absent. now we only feel and mild breeze from east. if upper air circulation forms, can bring thundershowers from east, north east by night.
ss
Mumbai will be hot for another 3 weeks, as they have to live up with north & north east winds which are from land and that too from hotter regions. By November first week, the maximum would come down to less than 32. this is quite common for mumbai in october. even some times the maximum touches 100f in western india.
ss
Numerical models are considered as best way to forecast nowadays. But it has its own limitations.
Now the updates of OLR map shows that there is a system forming on 27th over SW bay of bengal and moves towards TN and crosses the coast by 30th.
This system is likely to be a D or DD max.
OLR?
open that CFS map and keep clicking right arrow and see from 27th. The top image for real time OLR, it will show that Negative OLR running from SW to TN.
u can say cfs update.. olr is a term
clarify my comment above.
Selva,
Lets say that is D or DD and having mid level interaction.
If i am right that month end system from SW to TN is moving due to this push from Myanmar at mid level. Correct me if i am wrong.
We will have this scenario for clearing doubt, dont think whether this will happen or not.
that 588 contour is showing the HPA over Myanmar, hence it should direct the system towards TN.
weak system will move west in this scenario..anything reaching D or DD will be moving north northeast as u can see wd in pic
WD may not be strong this time as the AO is weakly positive, this will create some HPA over the Tropic/Sub Tropic region, this will weaken the WD this season.
Also in that map i see the Positive Anomaly over Pakistan, how you are seeing it as a WD?
forget about all AO.. WD will be stronger during elnino. westerly jets would dip below 20N easily to pull our systems
answer to my question?
i hav answered .. i m sorry ur interpretation is wrong with that 500 gph chart
i dont agree, D or DD, it should move west in this scenario, since the myanmar 588 contour will be given importance, but when nearing the coast that system might be weakening, but NE movement can be ruled out.
same date same time..can u see the intensity of trough & dip it has
that is upper tropo, can you show the system interaction, i was seeing the 500 hpa level alone.
in this case if a DD or a cyclone can be impacted, up to Depression it can escape and move towards TN.
haha.. i m sorry ur not getting my point.. see the intensity of ridge u r mentioning and intensity of upper level trough..its jujibi for trough to pull any system in this case
Selvan,
exactly what i wanted is, the contour line from Myanmar will push the system towards us or not, i am seeing other scenarios like WD.
just wanted to understand that 588 contour line.
Haha..lol …”jujibi”
pulling to TN na ok
72 hours rain forecast to be called as onset(19th).Chennai will get moderate showers
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/72hGFSrain.htm
If IMD doesn’t declare then they have to wait for 6-8 days for sure
IMD will not declare NEM onset date in advance like they do for SWM onset..
What if cyclone made LF on Nov 28th?
His blog title will help him
Lol…
that’s the same question I had, but I finally registered. Rain or shine we run. In case of cyclone they might postpone it.
Likely possible from last week nov to 1st week dec
IMD model now says rains possible over coastal tamil nadu from 19th. they also say west pacific system delays the seasonal rains by a week. what is that they are trying to communicate. no clear cut predictions. cat on the wall predictions. I still insist that rains have to commence by early morning of 18th though on reduced intensity to start with.
ss
pre NEM rain by IMD Delhi. NEM started by Chennai IMD
lets not jump the gun!! conditions needs to satisfy the daily rainfall index,OLR etc..the rainfall predicted in the imd pic is not even 10% to say it as onset in my opinion
In 2002, When SWM failed to advance over North India, (monsoon line sitting idle over central India) any idea what they did?
oh interesting ..this is new to me.. let me check that..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/endofmonsoon2004.htm
In the absence of any synoptic system in the first
fortnight of July, no further advance of monsoon took place during this
period. Monsoon advanced upto Delhi and neighbourhood as a weak current
on 19 July. However, there was another long delay in the subsequent
advance of monsoon and it covered the entire country only by 15 August.
They are forced to take weak current as monsoon with out any rain as monsoon progress
i ll check whether they had any rains in between 14th and 19th
IMD asked Vajpayee Govt to declare drought by july end.
oh.. so a big drama hav happened
See the MSLP chart, you will know.
MSLP charts should show that it has to run from West to East at around 15N latitude, this MSLP contour should be lowest starting from North India.
In simple terms i will explain why 19th rainfall is not considered as onset of NEM, lets forget the wind pattern or any other system effect.
The point is whenever there is an onset the real time OLR should become Negative and it should be Widespread covering at least entire south india approx. This is the condition during any monsoonal start. This condition likely to get fulfilled only after 23rd. MJO likely to enter phase 2 from 25th, that is when the Positive OLR will start to move eastwards towards MTC from Bay of Bengal.
IMD MID Day,
A trough in the easterlies extends from southwest Bay of Bengal to west central Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh coast between
3.1 & 4.5 km above mean sea level.
what they mean by this. they say so many Jargans and hardly the result happens. i.e. in terms of rainfall. Hardly less than 10 % they achieved accuracy.
ss
there is a dip in wind pattern at mid level, hence we are seeing more clouds from today morning.
will it bring some showers at least??
SS.
Mazhai Varuthu… Mazhai Varuthu… Kudai Konduvaa….
what a song that was from raja
Yes. Raja … Raja… than
Flash News,
IMD confirmed that SWM withdrawal from entire country in next 3 days.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ALLINDIA_MAIN.HTM
according to me, already over in the last 3 days. they are always late by some days.
ss
then what will you call the UAC in Maldives, UAC in Comorin formed today, then UAC was prevailing over North Bay till yesterday?
nothing connected to monsoon. these are all totally sea based. we are only concerning about the wind pattern. Even in un-seasonal periods, this can happen some times. probably some spill over in some pockets can never be construed as a full pledge monsoon pattern. IMD has set some norms for themselves, and they follow that. nothing more than that.
Even during April & May some cyclone affects TN but they never classify as NEM.
SS
Good point!
Where are the SWM winds?
No they have only said East and North East India, not entire country
and peninsular india
Where???
what happened to your eyes?
Fine, just now read it
Oh got it now!!!
Even the surface winds are easterly, why are they still talking about the SWM?
there are few more conditions like WS rainfall, then HPA over North, right now not in position, check with mslp charts.
Imd blabber most of the times and the models confuse them so much. they can just tell the forecast for 2 days with satellite & radar. let us not carry out any model based forecasts. none of the model give better accuracy.
ss
haha.tats funny
also surface level wind should be 15 to 20 knots from East.
But where is the criteria for the SWM that they are talking about?
When the winds are easterly!
SWM criteria is for onset, the criteria differs during withdrawal.
Hasn’t the monsoon withdrawn already when none of the onset criteria are met?
sun enters libra on sunday the 18th october,2015. at 09.50 nazigai. approximately 9.45 Am. On that day moon is waterly sign scorpio with conjunction of satrun. Mercury is exalted in virgo. only venus is not favorably placed. Hence we can astrologically say, rainy season to commence from Sunday. But venus is placed in its own constellation, even heavy rains are possible from that day. The period between 17th midnight – 20th midnight, wet conditions would prevail.
ss
Two week precipitation of south Asia
Normally when sun is in virgo, and mercury enters virgo, the south west winds would vanish. On october 4th itself, this had happened. hence we can conclude by october 10th the real SWM winds over in india.
ss
Trough in the easterlies at app. 700 hPa and above could be due to anticyclones on either side .Cumulus scale convection all across east coast up to east Indian plains….
An example of inverted Trough case…
exactly this is another point, to my knowledge during monsoon we should be seeing only normal trough not inverted trough.
I’ve seen active NEM spells with inverted troughs as well.. That would be a huge one ..
oh ok
1pm low clouds and less visibility
Looks Hot and Humid.
GTS,
During NEM, there is wind uplift happening over Andaman Sea right.
When lower level wind comes from SCS, it reaches South Andaman Sea and after that it climbs above and reaches up to Chennai latitude. Will you call that as inverted trough?
do you mean to say all these winds are from South china sea alone. what about burma, & north bay of bengal. i feel the winds are combination of so many such. Actually high pressure zones over burma made to re-curve winds and also the sea surface temperatures over lower latitudes less than 14 C were also contributes so much to rains over tamil nadu.
ss
Partha,
This is one scenario where an active easterly wave and the associated inverted trough would look like ..During cyclone OGNI in 2006 there was a similar situation
This is what i was mentioning in the below comment.
That was good explanation.
Light rains in North coastal AP
http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=2134
The inverted trough in easterlies has shifted to West Central Bay to TN coast. IMD might announce it today evening.
in the below diagram…this also looks like normal trough only can you throw a bit more on the difference between the normal trough and the inverted one
the below pic i have marked the wind climbing above and coming down, hence we say inverted trough, if wind bend down south and move then it is said as normal trough.
this is for northern hemisphere, in southern hemisphere it is opposite.
really a good clear, sunny and hot day outside. but dry air is totally absent – mild easterly breeze we can feel. this the typical before monsoon conditions. end of puratasi- very ideal weather. possibly after midnight chances of some rains.
ss
Confirmed that the trough in easterlies has extended towards NTN, the first pop up near NDP over South AP.
yes. it looks like thundershower formation, due to strong trough-line running closer to coast. in fact places close to machli coast getting heavy showers uncommon to this period, as normally this can occur during good SWM period.
ss
Yes, popup near Nayudupeta.
As day progresses, we can expect cells formation up to 13 latitude, as we could see the trough exists almost close to chennai coast.
ss
NEM onset is likely on 19th.
you are confident . any basis??
SS
Not according to IMD rules.
Inverted troughs are common in the areas affected by Easterly Trade Winds. The barotropic instability that occurs from 0-30 N/S latitude. The area of maximum vorticity is where the axis of the inverted trough resides
heard drizzling between tiruvallur-tiruttani pocket. also radar reflecting that. interesting.fact.
ss