Showers expected along parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh

Most parts of Indian subcontinent apart from southern peninsula and some parts of east India is getting filled in by the continental dry air gradually, which indicates the exit of south west Monsoon (SWM) from most parts of the country. Conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of SWM from remaining parts of east India during the next 3 days.
Meanwhile, a trough in the easterlies running from south west Bay up to west central Bay off Andhra coast may trigger some rainfall across parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh. Also, isolated parts of south TN and some parts of Kerala and Lakshadweep will experience some rains during the next 24 hours, from the westward moving
Upper Air Circulation (UAC) near Comorin area.

ezindia1_day2sector-wv

Chennai will see a partly cloudy sky with some haze. Maximum day time temperature will hover around 33 C.

Coimbatore to see mostly clear skies with few cloud patches. Maximum temperature will stay around 32 C.

Vellore is in for another comfortable day with day time highs just settling about 31-32 C.

Madurai will have sunny day with maximum day time high settling around the low to mid-thirties. Possibility of isolated light rains persists.

Trichy is in for a sunny day with maximum inching close to 33-34C.

1,220 thoughts on “Showers expected along parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh

  1. First comment ๐Ÿ˜๐ŸŽ‰ In new topic .

    Good morning friends . Ts started to popup in sea in early morning hours , that is good sign . And chances of rain for Chennai and north coastal Tamil Nadu is very high on 18-20th October. Again after small break by 3-4days rain will return with a bang On October 24- 30 and that will be our NEM onset ๐Ÿ˜ .

    Hope my first comment , will bring strong easterlies towards Tamilnadu .

  2. Past year October month 40 cm November month 33 cm something & December 24 or 28cm in chidambaram but this year only 2cm in October only 13 days remaning any possible to reached in normal Oct rain

  3. A โ€˜Desireโ€™ changes nothing,

    A โ€˜Decisionโ€™ changes something but…

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    changes everything…

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    If we know Our Weakneses, we Become Intelligent…

    And

    If we know Both, we Become Successful…

    Have a Great day ahead,

    Come on cheer up guys – NEM Team
    ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ’ฅ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŒน๐ŸŒน๐Ÿท๐Ÿท๐ŸŽŠ๐ŸŽŠ

  4. Eye drilling has begun . Just have a look at the developing bore well. Hot towers close to eye must be stressing on the tropopause area…please refresh or open in new tab for the actual current loop..

  5. Oct 17 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)

    TN may get good winter rains: Global forecasts

    Amit Bhattacharya

    Winter this year is expected to be mild over most parts of the country with above-normal average temperatures, according to global climate forecasts and projections at a South Asian climate conference that concluded in Chennai on Thursday .

    Experts gathered at the first Winter South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (WinSoscof) released a consensus statement that also predicted above normal winter monsoon rainfall in Tamil Nadu in the October-December period. The state receives most of its rainfall during this period.

    โ€œDuring the season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely over most parts of the region,โ€œ the statement added.

    It noted the continuing presence of El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean which are known to strengthen the northeast monsoon circulation and enhance rainfall over the country’s southern peninsula.

    The statement said there was unanimity over El Nino continuing through the winter season. While the overall conditions looked good for the northeast monsoon, localised weather conditions also play a role in enhancing or depressing the total amount of rainfall in the season, which made predictions difficult, it noted.

    The projections are consistent with seasonal forecasts from major international weather agencies. For instance, the long range forecast map issued by European agency ECMWF for November-January period shows average temperatures 1ยฐC to 2ยฐC above normal over most of India, barring southern TN and the northeast.

    Such seasonal predictions give an average temperature anomaly for the entire period.That means, although there could be cold spells during the season but the average temperatures over the period would be above normal.

    But Yadav sounded a note of caution. โ€œWhile most models show mild winter this year in India, the season is still a few months away . Forecasts with such long lead times have less accuracy than shorterrange predictions,โ€œ he said.

  6. All features evident to grow into a mature storm. Distinct primary and secondary bands visible. Secondary band is infact filled in with convective deep clusters arranged in the ring towards the eye. Monster out within the eye wall and coincides with the rapid deepening and intensification. Nothing to stop it as of now. 35 million people out there will face wind speeds of about 100 and 180 kmph. Early morning LF expected as of now. Howling sounds will be the most scary thing out there tomorrow….

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_24W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

  7. Koppu stands aligned almost from surface to at about 12 km height. Vortex is currently in full blown status. Wind field is just at perfect symmetry. No doubt VWS is less than 10 knots. No hammer blow effect.

    • The last time I saw this kind of forecast and graphics was for cyclone Nilam. Remember it was showing max. 25/26 C , winds from NNW @ 119 kmph , two days b4 LF.

  8. Good morng frnds.. Nice to see radar getting active in morng hrs. Good signs of our NEM.. Isolated TS may enter to North of chennai..

  9. Expecting early onset on schedule…..Raja something tells me…Everything is going to happen soon. we can see onset before 20th.

  10. Clouds โ˜ r coming perfectly from East.. Again a good sign to get a early morng showers within in a day or two..

  11. Good morning.
    None of the models expect even 5-10mm rainfall during 17th -20th!
    Let’s see.With active radar from today..we may witness some useful on and off showers soon!
    More like pre-NEM rainsโ˜”๏ธ

  12. Koppu a Cat-3 Typhoon with wind speeds around 203Km/hr gusting at 249km/hr!
    On the verge of making landfall.

  13. First nem rains last year poured exactly this time and this day.. Rains started exactly 9.30 am…. What a day!!! Can’t able to forget

  14. pressure chart – not satisfied
    dumbell shaped wind pattern-not satisfied
    widespread rains-unlikely
    how come onset wud b declared?

  15. Sel, i say onset is possible. Anything can happen in next 3 days. IMD is one weird organisation. They should have NEM onset / Advance line similar too SWM.

  16. Sirikaama Kalaikaama bathil sollunga makkale… Will it rain in Chennai on Oct 22nd (Thursday)? Planning to book tickets for the cricket match๐Ÿ˜

  17. NORMAL RAIN FALL IN THIS NEM FOR TN
    Normal Rainfall (plus-minus 10 per cent of the long term mean seasonal rainfall) is expected in majority of the districts in Tamil Nadu during the North East Monsoon from October to December.

    Erode, Tirupur, Salem, Dharmapuri, Thanjavur, Tiruchirapalli, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Dindigul, Virudhunagar, Theni, Sivaganga, Tuticorin, Madurai, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Vellore, Chennai Tiruvannamalai, Kanyakumari, Namakkal and Krishnagiri, may receive normal rainfall, according to an analysis by Tamil Nadu Agricultural University.

    Above normal rainfall is expected in Coimbatore, Karur, Tiruvarur, Tirunelveli, Villupuram and Nilgiris districts, during the period, it said.

    District level rainfall forecast for the Northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu was developed at Agro Climate Research Centre in the University, based on Southern Oscillation Index and Sea Surface Temperature values using ‘Australian Rainman International V.4.2,’ a release said.

    The historical rainfall data collected from the University Research Stations was used to represent the district rainfall information and in the absence of data from research station in a particular district, data from Rainman software was used, the analysis said.
    Source: Business standard

  18. In 2000, NE Monsoon was announced by IMD with scattered showers and Chennai merely got any rain on that day.Just passing clouds and occasional showers. That year Chennai got only 40 cms rain.

  19. It was nothing till last night.. Skies were calm, all of sudden some activity from today morning, good to see clouds moving in from east!!!! 1st smell of nem

  20. just now checked 2000 November 1st conditions!! I could dumbbell shaped
    wind pattern along with Chennai- nellore stretch getting rains..

  21. Leave alone onset… There’s not mch for chennai atleast till 26 as per most forecasts.. Stn may catch som rains nothing widespread forecasted

  22. TY Koppu is currently getting steered along the southern periphery of the extended STR which is anchored to the NE . Dominant STR being this NE one, poleward outflows are robust and equatorward outflows are also provided by the STR , a weaker one to its NW. What else is needed. SST s close to 31 C, no hammer blow from VWS. All set in place for carnage…

  23. Government of India
    Earth System Science Organization
    Ministry of Earth Sciences
    India Meteorological Department
    Press Release

    Dated: 16 October, 2015

    ——————————————————————————————–
    ——————————————————————————————–

    Forecast Outlook for 2015 NE Monsoon Season
    (Octoberโ€“December)

    Rainfall over South Peninsula

    Five Meteorological
    Subdivisions of Southern India namely Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh,
    Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka, receives about 30% of its
    annual rainfall during the North East monsoon season (October to
    December). Tamil Nadu in particular
    receives about 48 % of its annual rainfall during this season.

    The summary of forecasts
    for 2015 North-East monsoon season’s Rainfall is given below:

    1. Season’s rainfall for South Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Coastal
    Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka), is most
    likely to be above normal (>111% of Long Period Average). The Long Period Average (LPA) of the North-East
    monsoon season rainfall for the south Peninsula for the base period 1951-2000
    is 332.1mm.

    2. Season’s rainfall for Tamil Nadu is
    most likely to be above normal (>112% of LPA). The LPA of the North-East
    monsoon season rainfall for the Tamil Nadu for the base period 1951-2000 is
    438.2mm.

    3. The probability
    of above normal 2015 North-East monsoon season rainfall over south peninsula
    and over Tamil Nadu is 88% and 90% respectively.

  24. Let this NEM once again prove that it the true rainy season and fill up the lakes of chennai metro water unlike the half baked rains in the months of june to September

  25. Guys since u r at bay point.Have easterlies really set in.missing the smell in air.

    Here we got really good rain from the weak depression as we had been to oman yesterday.

  26. IMD has more pressure to spell their forecast accurately now compared to few years back due to media/private forecasters and KEA blogs too

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