All eyes on SWM onset

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The much delayed onset of SWM is expected anytime over Kerala. It is expected to be a slow start for the monsoon and IMD forecast is not encouraging. Hope things change for the better and nature proves all forecasts wrong.

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1,554 thoughts on “All eyes on SWM onset”

  2. A few days back on sun news , very sad part is the extreme unawareness in media side ..one can see Jayanthi mam getting frustrated by media guy’s irrelevant questions and views quite often ….The media guy has got into conclusions , that el nino would send hot air into India from Pacific thru bay of bengal , whereas on west coast , western ghats stops it ,,,,,,
    “”VERY VERY PATHETIC SITUATION”” ……..

    Reposting here ..sorry for the inconvenience

    Reply

    • Unfortunately the media (electronic media) assumes that the anchor of the programme is master in all subject and they become judge – and to make the point they shout – empty vessels

      Reply

      • Yes Sir , he should not behave that way.There should have been a person who knows a little basics on weather. Here, the least thing , i.e ,. even observation is lacking …..

      • Instead of him interrupting several times there , chance should have been given for Jayanthi mam to explain some concepts in the beginning, so that everyone including viewers and the anchor would have come to know about the topic to some extent. Very bad that in our country still this advanced topic is being ill treated

      • Weather is a hated subject even now for indians.. average indian does not know what is weather

      • Have you watched escape plan movie lit of geograpgy in the movie you can never make such movies in india

  4. Another hot/scorching day expected in chennai….no sign for a possible ts till this weekend

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  6. I think June rainfall can be made to normal category for peninsula, West, East, NE & central India based on favorable (1) MJO (2) IOD/EQUINOO (3)SOI-increasing values

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  7. Rain forecast, a gamble on monsoon
    ———————-
    If India’s monsoon forecast turns out to be accurate, the country will be facing its 12th worst drought since 1950 and two consecutive years of the calamity for only the fourth time and the first time in 30 years. However, a private weather service and the meteorological department’s own track record raise some questions on the forecast.

    “You show me one model which is able to do a better job,” D.S. Pai, Chief Forecaster at the IMD, toldThe Hindu. There are a large number of unpredictable factors in the development of the monsoon and the longer range the forecast is, the greater the likelihood of error, he said. The IMD has been putting on trial a new supercomputer-driven model which has forecast an even more deficient monsoon, at 86 per cent with a five per cent error margin.

    Mapping the monsoon, with all its complexities and the various factors that influence it, is a tough task at the best of times. For example, as meteorologist Eric Holthaus says, should the El Nino phenomenon die out more quickly, or if the Indian Ocean dipole strengthens, both would suggest more rain than is forecast.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/rain-forecast-a-gamble-on-monsoon/article7279703.ece?homepage=true

    Reply

    • OMG…super computers also used as a trial for SWM-2015 forecast? its interesting to see the real outcome 🙂

      Reply

    • 86%..?? Day by day they are reducing and finally they will come back again saying that Monsoon has taken a break for 1 Year

      Reply

      • Why so much dissapoinment… Swm are so vigorous that they can cause floods in no time when they begin their journey helped by mighty Himalayas

  10. Today chennai rains possible???,,,,, from a small cloud mass at north srilanka…. The wind is favoring it to pass over chennai.?

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  13. Pre-monsoon Rain continues in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 03.06.2015
    ==================================
    The east-west shear zone roughly along Lat. 10° N persists and now extends between 3.1 & 4.5 kms a.s.l. The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood has become less marked. However a trough of low at mean sea level lies over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood. It may organize into a low pressure area during next 48 hours.

    in mm (30 mm)

    Balla – 98
    Chunchanahalli – 92
    Gudageri – 91
    Chennayanakote – 89
    Avani – 85
    Shirabadagi – 84
    Bhagamandala – 82
    Tippuru – 79
    Magundi – 71
    Thayalur – 70
    Belagumba – 68
    Dudda – 65
    Ramasagar – 60
    Ganganakote – 56
    Kadthala – 56
    Guttal – 56
    Kadra – 55
    Virajpet – 55
    Shiruguppi – 54
    Tilavalli – 53
    Bytharahosahalli – 50
    Kyasamballi – 50
    Nidige – 48
    Dasanapura – 46
    Kanivedasarahalli – 45
    Mulikar – 43
    Inamhanchinal – 42
    Belur – 39
    Puttige – 39
    Pala – 39
    Suragondanahalli – 38
    Bettadapura – 37
    Siddapura(K) – 37
    Bylanarasapura – 36
    Lakshmeshwar – 36
    Sulya – 36
    Bhavikere – 36
    Karkala – 35
    Venur – 34
    Kannegala – 34
    Asundi – 34
    Rangenahalli – 30
    Aldur – 30
    Narasapura – 30
    Ankasandra – 30
    Kirwatti – 30
    Adarangi – 30

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Reply

  14. Cloud cover not even able to penetrate till 15 degree North latitude…….dry air going to kill the system but sst is only favourable and also moist winds to east and south of the system

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  21. Swm expected to become active and progress only after 15th.

    Imd might announce onset by tomorrow or saturday, but Real monsoon only after 15th

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    • Media is there to hype everything and they cannot contribute , but will add woes to the people

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  24. Rains across Kerala, monsoon may hit state in 48 hours
    ————————————————————-
    Thiruvananthapuram/Hyderabad/Shimla/Kolkata: Pre-monsoon rains brought down temperatures in some states while monsoon seemed set to hit Kerala within 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.

    The temperature in several parts of Kerala rose on Tuesday but on Wednesday evening, dark clouds formed at many places and by late night it showered in many places across the state.

    An IMD official forecast rains across Kerala in the next 24 hours. Fishermen have been warned about winds blowing 45 to 55 km an hour on the coast.

    Weather officials are analysing the data recorded at 14 weather stations located at the Lakshadweep, Kerala and Mangalore in Karnataka. The onset of monsoon is declared on the basis of amount of rain received at these 14 stations. Wind and cloud formations are other indicators.

    http://english.manoramaonline.com/news/just-in/rains-bring-down-heat-monsoon-may-hit-kerala-in-48-hours-.html

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  26. tis arabian sea system must b related to wave activity.. enhanced divergence all around particularly twrds south east driving into s.hemishere, even west, and more importantly jet streams dipping from north into central arb sea as trough… action that are happening above 12km is getting reflected in surface!! mind blowing nature..attached earth null image and 200hpa divergence map


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  28. SWM Onset over Kerala most of the time triggered by MJO only.
    The West Indian Ocean or Arabian Sea Branch of SWM winds requires a trigger from MJO to make and onset. This has happened most of times in the past.

    Whereas Bay branch just required CEW which will ensure monsoon onset over Andaman and North East Coast of India.

    Reply

  29. Sel,

    Lower level convergence max. is 40 and upper level divergence max. is 50 , and both are in line around the region of disturbance ….also as u said the shear lines are almost indicating the same point source outflows ….

    Reply

    • hmm.. let it develop into a big one!! i have read in one of the study that early june systems in arb sea r very highly correlated to elnino conditions

      Reply

      • Yes, lets see , how these favorable conditions are getting used , and I remember u saying that el nino correlation and Arabian Sea system earlier

      • even last year NANAUK in arb sea where the month of may ,june showed elnino like conditions before going into off mode in july,august

      • Guess we need to check on the average pressure drop @ msl for this month , deviations from climatological values for the Arabian Sea….

  33. subject of monsoon onset over kerala in response to sst over north indian ocean basin was studied by experts from NIOT, GOA… comparing there findings with tis year sst conditions, the conditions were very much similar to delayed onset

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  34. Image courtesy…
    ——————–
    Kirby Hornbeck‎Cloud Enthusiasts :-)))
    Great cloud tonight east of Laramie Wyoming. 6/3/15

    Reply

  35. Selva- gts dual combo haunting blog…..can’t get a better start today…. Both experts shelling their view

    Reply

  37. where is partner jon? he used to post realtime live cam of beaches in maldives… monsoon is almost there

    Reply

      • no,he is not in maldives..he used to post links tat shows maldives beaches wich r believed to be realtime

  38. GTS,

    We have correlation with ELNINO as Sel said.

    During ELNINO years by May end or June Arabian Sea will throw a system, as the MJO predominantly in Phase 8 or Phase 1 since east pacific is heating up. Since MJO predominantly in Phase 7 and 8, this will suppress moisture in Bay. This is why we are *not getting May cyclone in Bay of Bengal, rather forming in Arabian Sea.

    Reply

  40. Vellore district gets heaviest Rain of the year, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 03.06.2015
    ==================================
    The east-west shear zone roughly along Lat. 10° N persists and now extends between 3.1 & 4.5 kms a.s.l

    in mm (15 mm)

    Vaniaymbadi – 112
    Yelagiri – 109
    Alangayam – 60
    Bhavanisagar – 59
    Thandrambattu – 56
    Kammapuram – 56
    Barur – 58
    Sathanur Dam – 57
    Krishnagiri – 56
    Chengam – 55
    Pochampalli – 54
    Kalasapakkam – 51
    Gudiyatham – 50
    Lakur – 48
    Madhanur – 48
    Melalathur – 43
    Madurai AP – 43
    Pegumbahallah – 41
    Keelservazhi – 40
    Porthimund – 40
    Ambur – 38
    Peranampattu – 38
    Sriperumbudur – 37
    Kundha Bridge – 36
    Penucondapuram – 35
    Anaicut – 35
    Pudupalayam – 34
    Omalur – 31
    West Arani – 31
    Kunnathur – 31
    Thirukoilur – 30
    Polur – 28
    Natrampalli – 27
    Jolarpet – 26
    Tozhudur – 24
    Kondampatti – 22
    K.V.Kuppam – 22
    Kaniyambadi – 22
    Karimangalam – 22
    Marandahalli – 20
    Shoolagiri – 19
    Chettikulam – 17
    Uthangarai – 17
    Madurai south – 17
    Coonoor – 16
    Nedungal – 16
    Vanapuram – 16
    Katpadi – 16
    Uthiramerur – 15
    Tirupathur pto – 15
    Coonoor pto – 15
    Uthagamandalam – 15
    Sankarapuram – 15
    Kothagiri – 15
    Bhuvanagiri – 15

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Reply

  42. Heavy and widespread rains reported in Kanykumari – Puthen Dam 90 mm and Perunchani 89 mm

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  44. Observation on SWM 2015 and Tropical Waves this Season.

    When a monsoon season has more Kelvin or Rossby Waves, then monsoon in that season will fail. The upcoming SWM season also likely to see frequent Rossby and Kelvin Waves and MJO might not be frequent as it was in previous times.

    The reason is ELNINO. this phenomenon suppresses moisture in Indian Ocean in the long run and the Pacific Ocean keeps MJO with itself for most of the time.

    Kelvin Wave likely to help monsoon to some extent but the reflective of Rossby might not. This Rossby wave will help the Upper Level moisture to get developed, this will bring occassional thunder storms and suppresses the lower level moisture and the lower level steering winds will not get the required moisture for monsoonal rains.

    This is when the Positive IOD will help the lower level winds to get moisture during SWM. This time we might get Positive IOD but not going to sustain and will be back to Neutral. The unsettled IOD during this season might fail the SWM 2015.

    There is an advantage for Chennai. During ELNINO when there is no Positive IOD, then those years Chennai got Normal Rainfall during June to September, since upper level gets more active, by nature Chennai gets TS during this season, it helps Chennai to get normal rainfall during SWM season, this is due to failure of Positive IOD establishment.

    Hence we will see more Rossby Wave and Less MJO this season.
    Also IMD has pulled the right string and Chennai might get normal rainfall during SWM. This is just my assessment based on some logic, correct me if i am wrong.

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  47. SWM will start with a bang in kerala, pushing moisture upto the Western ghats… fun around …chennai should get some frequent TS late evg once it touches NTN ..

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  50. Whats happening in arabian sea. Strong systems forming in last few years. Climate change due to global warming.

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  52. Tamil Nadu will receive more than 32 per cent of its total annual rainfall from the South West Monsoon (SWM) (between June and September 2015) and this is despite lying in the rain shadow area to SWM, say researchers at the Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University.

    Normal rainfall (+/- 10 per cent of the long term mean seasonal rainfall) is predicted in Ariyalur, Chennai, Cuddalore, Dharmapuri, Dindugal, Kancheepuram, Kanyakumari, Krishnagiri, Namakkal, Ooty, Perambalur, Pudukottai, Salem, Thanjavur, Thiruvallur, Thiruvannamalai, Trichy, Vellore and Villupuram.

    Districts such as Coimbatore, Erode, Karur, Theni, Tirupur and Madurai can expect near normal rainfall, while some of the Southern districts such as Ramanathapuram, Sivagangai, Tirunelveli, Thiruvarur, Tuticorin and Virudhunagar will receive below normal rainfall, the researchers say.

    Researchers said that the forecast is based on the Southern Oscillation Index of summer season and sea surface temperature values of Pacific and Indian Oceans using Australian Rainman International V.4.2 software. The rainfall probability is said to be 60 per cent.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/states/tnau-forecasts-rainfall-pattern-in-the-state-this-season/article7281649.ece

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  53. Why today ts forming so early?????? i dont think that is going to benefit us…Any how Lets see…..

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  54. Chennai temperature did not go beyond 35°C so far and it is unlikely go up as expected by some of my friends, Pleasant breeze has also set in

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  55. FLASH!! Arb sea system moving NE towards kerala!,, as per rammb
    Before
    Lat 7.6,long 68.6

    Latest
    Lat, 8.0,long,69.1!!

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  58. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) may have downgraded its monsoon outlook for the June-September season to 88 per cent, but it is premature to say this will be the same in the southern peninsula, Geetha Agnihotri, in-charge director, Indian Meteorological Department, Bengaluru, said.
    According to earlier reports from IMD, the south west monsoon was supposed to hit the Kerala coast on May 30 and arrive in Coastal and other parts of Karnataka in five days. But now, the monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on Friday.

    sourceL Indian Express

    Reply

  61. NEW DELHI, June 4, 2015 Updated: June 4, 2015 09:55 IST

    Rain forecast, a gamble on monsoon

    If India’s monsoon forecast turns out to be accurate, the country will be facing its 12th worst drought since 1950 and two consecutive years of the calamity for only the fourth time and the first time in 30 years. However, a private weather service and the meteorological department’s own track record raise some questions on the forecast.

    On Tuesday, the Earth System Science Organisation and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) downgraded the operational long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall from its April figure of 93 per cent (with an error margin of five per cent) of the normal to 88 per cent (four per cent). The forecast thus shifted from a below-normal monsoon to a deficient one, which implies a drought.

    This makes it the first forecast of a drought before the onset of the monsoon since the department began forecasts in 1988. However, even given the 10 per cent margin of error around pre-monsoon forecasts, the IMD got only three of the last eight monsoon forecasts right, underestimated two and overestimated three, an analysis by The Hindu shows.

    for more details ….. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/rain-forecast-a-gamble-on-monsoon/article7279703.ece

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  65. Rs 500 crore corpus to fight price rise of essentials; government ready with contingency plan
    The government is ready with a contingency plan to tackle the impact of deficient monsoon rains on the overall economy , agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said on Wednesday , saying that the Rs 500 crore corpus that government has created for price stabilization would be used for market intervention to moderate prices of onions, potatoes and even pulses.

    Read more at:
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47537321.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

    Reply

  71. I think chennai has some chances of rain from late Saturday or Sunday which will peak in Monday due uac coming closer to chennai

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  72. Partly sunny here in Ernakulan. A brief shower lasted 15 minutes around 12.30 pm. Same time its quite windy.

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  73. Will monsoon on set over Kerala further delayed?

    While IMD maintains monsoon on set over Kerala tomorrow, Climatologists at the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) said the monsoon would be delayed.

    To substantiate his prediction of a delayed monsoon, he said the clouds, now over Central Sri Lanka, would move towards the north of that country by Thursday, before reaching Kerala on Monday.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Monsoon-likely-in-next-48-hours-IMD-says/articleshow/47535498.cms

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  76. Hot Dog days are gone, happy about it, but sultry 36+ weather prevail… TS ruled out for today due to weak sea breeze…

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  79. TN daily rainfall

    04-06-2015

    Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Vedasandur (Dindigul Dist)
    8 each

    Mettupatti (Madurai Dist)
    7

    Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Chittampatti (Madurai Dist), Sathyamangalam (Erode Dist), Panchapatti (Karur Dist)
    5 each

    Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist)
    4 each

    Mayanur (Karur Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist), Melur (Madurai Dist)
    3 each

    Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Namakkal (Namakkal Dist), Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist), Devala (Nilgiris Dist), G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Annur (Coimbatore Dist), Aravakurichi (Karur Dist), Dindigul (Dindigul Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist)

    1 each

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  83. All convergence and divergence shifted to Arabian Sea, also 700HPA vorticity so far were around SAP and NTN too shifting to Arabian Sea, whatever TS formed so far in SAP since morning was due to mid level ridge passing through 14N, it is still available, but might shift anytime.

    The following pic shows the ridge, the ACC in Deep Blue and Light Blue is moisture phase. The border of Deep Blue and Light Blue is Ridge.

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor3&zoom=&time=

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  84. Looking at the sat image looks like SWM rain clouds waiting at the doorstep to knock Kerala coast.

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  87. IMD:
    Thunderstorm accompanied with squall would occur at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and interior Tamilnadu.

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  89. A new upper air trough at 4.5 km a.s.l has formed over Andaman. This trough is expected to breed our 2nd UAC! .Likely to be AP’s again, but coastal TN will get rains as long as westerlies prevail and SWM sets in fast.

    Reply

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