Two days of drizzle in Chennai, dont be disappointed. It will be Chennai’s turn today.

Pradeep John 2015, KEA Blog, Summer15

Last two days, we have seen big mass of clouds move so close to chennai only to fade away. Some of us were thrilled and even thought that it wont miss Chennai. But in the end, it never rained as expected as the wind were not supportive and when the wind was supportive there was no moisture at all levels.

Tomorrow/ Day after Tomorrow Morning satisfies all parameter for rains, there is  moisture from 6 kms to surface level and we also end up in the right hand side of the upper air trough. So, as usual, a big TS will move from Vellore, but this time it will extend into Chennai and the rains may start night /late night /after mid night. To be honest, it is very difficult to predict quantum as these TS may dump cm’s of rains in minutes.

Enjoy it as April rains are very rare and Remember Rains will start only at night or after mid night as these storms have to  travel to Coast. It is also one heck of a rare system.

14-15th April

1,747 thoughts on “Two days of drizzle in Chennai, dont be disappointed. It will be Chennai’s turn today.”

  8. Its Very Pleasant Morning with bright sunshine and Clear Sky.
    Which is good for TS Formation Later in the Day.

    Reply

  9. As per IMD LIVE AWS 23.6 is recorded as Minimum. Its the Coldest Morning in this April.

    Reply

  11. It became very cold in hyderabad and suprised to see that moderate rain is continuing in hyderabad even now
    current temperature 15.8
    Many northern areas of hyderabad may report above 100mm rain today..
    heavy damage in hyderabad due to winds
    many electric poles have broken down…

    Reply

  15. What a way to start the Tamil chithirai Month and New year.Unbelievable Climate in the nit with drizzles.Hoping it rains today like other towns of TN.

    Reply

  17. guys i dono that i can post here..pls listen and then kea delete after an hour.
    guys i want to by a phone today…budget 10,000..i do know..what to buy?but i feel samsung is best..what r u thoughts?

    Reply

    • If you trust online shopping then go for yureka .. it’s a micromax product available in Amazon .. it’s features are awesome. Equivalent to 20k mobile.. one of my friends has got that phone.. it’s awesome

      Reply

      • Then you can go for Samsung s duos or core duos .. or even Lenovo A6000 is good. I personally feel that Samsung products are getting dull now. Just try to Google top 10 mobile phones in India under 10k and trust me you won’t find Samsung at the top

  20. Kukatpally…dilsukhnagar….uppal….banjara hills……jublee hills…..bhuvangiri…secunderabad areas reported hails last night……in hyderabad
    I will post the images as soon as any local news paper updates it…..

    Reply

  21. According to IMD GFS analysis and forecast , the pattern of the mid level Trough is expected to be in the most favorable position today…It is expected to transform to a near neutral tilt trough position from a positive tilt position as it had been from its formation. It is expected to bounce back to a weaker positive tilt position again tomorrow. So today might be a little more supportive for quite a good number of T’storms provided other factors provide a support.
    One more thing is that the Arabian ridge is expected to gain more strength in the next couple of days, and the core of it is expected to expand vertically due to increased warming to a geopotential height of 592 dam , and is expected to spread out more towards the east , and simultaneously the Indian Trough would get back to the westerlies …..to normal position …..

    The image attached here shows the positive tilt positions of the Indian Trough and all other similar troughs to the west …..

    Reply

      • I ll pull out the model outlook in some time . let us check where our chance stands for the days ahead

  24. What is going on. Humidity and Dew point readings very low. Not a good sign for any kind of precipitation.

    Reply

  26. Today very much comfortable and cool with mild sunshine and low humidity……. But this is not good for ts formation

    Reply

  27. Can i ask one thing, what does Chennai heat has to do with TS formation over vellore. Is TS going to form right over Chennai. As morning goes, the sky will clear. There will be heat. Moreover, its a trough related upliftment. Not a Veppa Salanam rains.

    Reply

  29. If we dont get rains tonight / Early morning, then we can forget rains for rest of the month.

    Reply

  30. GEM sees a low forming on 17th and then Cyclone Crossing into Chennai on 21st April – http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015041312/gem_mslp_pcpn_ind_26.png

    Navy Gem shows the low on 17th but no intensification – http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2015041318/navgem_mslp_pcpn_ind_13.png

    GFS shows it as trough of Low on 17th – http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015041400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ind_12.png

    ECMWF showinfg some vorticity http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015041312/ecmwf_uv850_vort_ind_4.png

    Reply

  34. IMD recorded 0.2 mm ending 5:30 pm yesterday. Not too sure when did this happen. My office is facing IMD and no drizzle happened before 5:30

    Reply

  39. Shimuzu in Kochi Prefecture of Japan have received record April rainfall of 326mm in 24hrs on yesterday(13th April 2015) due to the low pressure system

    . 300mm fell in just 9 hours.
    . The heaviest spell from 3am to 9am gave 284mm.
    . From 7am to 8am, it received 111mm.

    Reply

  40. Hyderabad recorded a rainfall of 6.07 cm on 1937 april 20…..

    After 78 years hyderabad broke that record yesterday

    Reply

  42. Massive rains in Karnataka from a rare event affecting Peninsula, ending 8.30 am on 13.04.2015
    ====================================
    Over 200 stations have reported over 10 mm rainfall. Hence, the cut-off is kept at 40 mm. A trough runs from west Madhya Pradesh to Comorin area across interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. with the embedded cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood.

    min 40 mm

    Nagasamudra – 99
    Gajendragad – 95
    Kadwad – 87
    Benguru – 77
    Holenarasipur – 76
    Neralekere – 75
    Shivanahalli – 70
    Adankuppe – 67
    Nilogal – 67
    Gogeri – 63
    Thippagondanahalli – 57
    Mittemari – 56
    Alur – 56
    Devasamudra – 54
    Saligrama – 54
    Dibburahalli – 53
    Kanakapura – 52
    Jagalur – 52
    Kanasavadi – 50
    Sandur – 49
    Peruvai – 48
    Mulikar – 47
    Bandipura – 44
    Katageri – 44
    Ponnampet – 44
    Kerur – 43
    Bangarpet – 43
    Sangenahally – 42
    Napoklu – 40
    Pavagada – 40
    Doddalahally – 40
    Somanahalli – 40
    Duggasandra – 40
    Yelahanka – 40
    Kushtagi – 40

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

    Reply

  43. “As heavy rainfall warning has been issued for Tuesday, we expect there will be anywhere between five and eight centimeters of rain tomorrow,” said Y K Reddy, director in-charge, Met department, Hyderabad.

    Reply

  45. Kurnool reported nearly golf ball sized hailstones in peddapaadu mandal.
    3 died in kurnool….yesterday in lightening
    Death toll rose to 25 in both the states in last 2 days

    Reply

  46. Tropical Pacific Ocean primed for El Niño in 2015

    The chances of El Niño occurring in 2015 have increased. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average, trade winds remain weaker than normal, and all models surveyed suggest further ocean warming will occur. As a result, the ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring this year.

    Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Niño levels. Large areas of warmer than average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

    All international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. However, the accuracy of model outlooks during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year.

    El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia. However, April to June is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia due to very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean.

    Reply

  48. Kiran, we feel as though there is a live weather page pertaining to Telengana, AP right here in the blog. The alacrity shown by you is amazing.. Wonderful really. Kudos.

    Reply

  49. 2nd day of heavy rains in Andhra from a rare event, ending 8.30 am on 13.04.2015
    ====================================
    Over 150 stations have reported rainfall. Hence, the cut-off is kept at 30 mm. A trough runs from west Madhya Pradesh to Comorin area across interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. with the embedded cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood.

    min 30 mm

    Sambepalle – 98
    Chinnamandem – 83
    Satyavedu – 73
    Kadiri – 67
    Guntakal – 61
    Hindupur – 55
    Lepakshi – 54
    Gooty – 53
    Proddutur – 52
    Chilamathur – 51
    Rayadurg – 50
    Nallamada – 48
    Agali – 47
    Gorantla – 45
    Rajampet – 45
    Madakasira – 44
    Jammalamadugu – 43
    Anantpur – 41
    Royachoti – 41
    Muddanur – 41
    Atmakur – 40
    Atlur – 40
    Pullampeta – 38
    Tadpatri – 38
    Penu Konda – 35
    Chapad – 34
    Ramagiri – 32
    Dharmavaram – 31
    Kandukur – 31
    Bathalapalle – 30
    Kambadur – 30
    Tadimarri – 30
    Kondapuram – 30
    Obuladevaracheruvu – 30
    Rolla – 30
    Thottambedu – 30

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

    Reply

  50. R.k.pet (Tiruvallur Dist), Pallipattu (Tiruvallur Dist), Chengam (Tiruvannamalai Dist)

    11 each

    Satankulam (Toothukudi Dist)

    7

    Udumalpet (Tiruppur Dist), Kalavai AWS (Vellore Dist)

    6 each

    Vellore (Vellore Dist), Polur (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist), Sholingur (Vellore Dist), Poondi (Tiruvallur Dist), Ambur (Vellore Dist)

    5 each

    Reply

  52. Madden-Julian Oscillation has weakened
    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakened over the Indian Ocean during the first half of April. Some models forecast the MJO to re-strengthen slightly over the western tropical Indian Ocean this week while other models maintain a weak signal. Both scenarios indicate the MJO would have little impact on northern Australian rainfall for the next two weeks.

    Tropical Australia has seen dry conditions for several weeks, likely influenced by the location of the MJO before it weakened. The MJO was strong and active over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the last weeks of March, prior to its steady weakening. When the MJO is active in these regions, tropical weather is often supressed over Australian longitudes.

    While the northern wet season is winding down, showers and storms are still possible in coastal areas in the coming weeks where humidity remains high. Another burst of the monsoon is unlikely to occur over Australia this season as most tropical convection has shifted north of the continent. Some weather models develop an active near-equatorial trough, with the possibility of a tropical low, to the north of Australia by early next week.

    Reply

  53. Warm Pacific and Indian oceans
    Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average. Sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region are 0.7 °C above normal and the most recent Southern Oscillation Index value to 12 April is -10.2. All international climate models monitored by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will reach or exceed El Niño thresholds by June.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral and is forecast to remain neutral for the remainder of the year. While a dipole pattern (cool waters in the west and warm in the east or vice versa) across the Indian Ocean is not expected, the waters across the Indian Ocean basin are currently warmer than normal and will increase the likelihood of wet weather over western and southern Australia over the next few months.

    Reply

  55. Good rains yesterday in N.Chennai it seems , but very less in Shollinganallur and its surroundings ,

    Some steady drizzle was there by 12:15am in AGS , But we traveled back there is not even a drizzle in shollinganallur

    Reply

    • In chennai as well its bright sunshine and clear. Some towering clouds under development over west we hope to see best chance of rains tonight.

      Reply

  59. Apparent position of Sun at noon time for the day ….
    Exactly overhead Tamil Nadu;
    Angle of Sun’s inclination to reverse in a few days
    Journey begins for the migration of this position northwards and so the harsh Summer too……

    Reply

  60. Accuweather predicting decent rains for us
    Tuesday – 9 mm
    Wednesday – 8 mm
    Thursday – 3 mm
    Total 20 mm. Accu always under forecasts rains for us. But this being April, I will gladly take 20 mm.

    Reply

  62. Pictures of hail storm in Aspari which is 90 km away from kurnool on sunday evening….
    massive hailstones falling down
    rainfall in aspari on that day was 26.2 mm
    Aspari mandal is also the hottest in kurnool
    last week it recorded 44.7 degree temperature

    Reply

  67. since pre monsoon rain peak all over india has formed 10 days earlier than normal, renowned expert pv joseph believe monsoon onset over kerala may happen early around 25th of may(+3 or -3 days).. interesting relation.

    Reply

  71. Hopefully hopefully the TS, wherever it may form, should penetrate the Bloggers Circle of 30 Kms radius..More often than not that 25 tto 30 Kms circle brings in lot of excitement and expectations…

    Reply

  73. Heavy rains in Telangana and AP (cutoff 50mm)

    Satyavedu (chittor) 140.4 mm
    kamareddy (nizamabad) 110.4 mm
    Tada 65.3 mm
    veeraghattam 64.6 mm
    palasamudram 64.2 mm
    Tadwai 62.4 mm
    venkatagiri 59.0 mm
    Tiruvuru 58.2 mm
    pagidyala (kurnool) 56.4 mm
    bayyaram 55.4 mm
    hakimpet 55.4 mm
    sadasivanagar 54.0 mm
    konijerla 53.4 mm
    naga reddipet 53.2 mm
    jadcherla 52.4 mm
    thimmajipeta 52.0 mm
    pakala 51.2 mm
    venkatagirikota 50.2 mm
    bonakal 50 mm

    Reply

  74. good news…after West , now T.S started to form South-West of Chennai…positive signs for chennai to get rains

    Reply

  80. Above 100mm rains in AP and Telangana
    Satyavedu (CHITTOR) (Andhra Pradesh) 140.4 mm (this may be the highest 24 hour rain in south India till now in 2015)
    Kamareddy (NIZAMABAD)(Telangana) 110.4 mm

    Reply

  81. Is it NEM No, But Tamil Nadu is getting Very Heavy Rains due a rare upper air trough dipping from Central India to Tamil Nadu, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 13.04.2015
    =====================================================================
    Over 300 stations have reported over 10 mm rainfall. Hence, the cut-off is kept at 40 mm. A trough runs from west Madhya Pradesh to Comorin area across interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. with the embedded cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood.

    min 40 mm

    Peddanaickenpalayam, Salem – 131
    Vaiyampatty, Trichy – 120
    Sankarapuram, Villupuram – 107
    Thottiyam, Trichy – 107
    Annavasal, Pudukottai – 104
    Illupur, Pudukottai – 104
    Viralimalai,Pudukottai – 104
    Rameswaram, Ramanathapuram – 101
    Virkanur, Salem – 100
    Panchapatti, Karur – 99
    Paduviludhi, Karaur – 94
    Chengam,Tiruvannamalai – 91
    Maylampatti, Karur – 90
    Devakottai, Sivaganga – 88
    Ponniyar Dam, Trichy – 86
    Alangudi, Pudukkottai – 85
    Manapparai, Trichy – 85
    Arimalam, Pudukottai – 75
    Attur, Salem – 75
    Erumaipatti, Namakkal – 74
    Pudukottai, Pudukkottai – 74
    Kunnandarkoil, Pudukottai – 73
    Thandrampet, Tiruvannamalai – 70
    Kalrayanhills, Villipuram – 69
    Kamudhi, Ramanathapuram – 68
    Arani, Tiruvannamalai – 68
    Thandrampatti, Vellore – 66
    Kombatti, Trichy – 65
    Kaveripakkam, Vellore – 64
    Kollimalai, Namakkal – 64
    Perungalur, Pudukkottai – 63
    Tiruvadanai, Ramanathapuram – 62
    Namagiripet, Namakkal – 60
    Kumbatti, Trichy – 60
    Marungapuri, Trichy – 59
    Kamatchipuram, Dindigul – 59
    Sultanpet, Coimbatore – 56
    Musiri, Trichy – 55
    Kulithalai, Karur – 53
    Thanthoni, Karur – 53
    Tirumayam, Pudukkottai – 53
    Tirukoilur, Villupuram – 53
    Gangavilli, Salem – 51
    Orthanad, Thanjavur – 51
    Thathiengrpet, Trichy – 51
    Thuraiyur, Trichy – 50
    Pongalur, Tiruppur – 49
    Dindigul, Dindigul – 48
    Mayanur, Karur – 48
    Sendamangalam, Namakkal – 46
    Thammampatty, Salem – 45
    Thogamalai, Karur – 44
    Arakonam, Vellore – 44
    Kalavai, Vellore – 43
    Pudupalayam, Tiruvannamalai – 42
    Sathanur Dam, Tiruvannamalai – 42
    Yelagiri, Vellore – 41
    Karur, Karur – 40
    Viralimalai, Pudukkottai – 40
    Tirupattur, Vellore – 40
    Perambalur, Perambalur – 40

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=50

    Reply

  84. Todays minimum temperatures in Hyderabad

    feeling like winter

    Hyderabad Baanjaara hills 14 degrees
    Hyderabad Jublee hills 15.6 degrees
    Hyderabad uppal sez 15.1 degrees
    Hyderabad shamshaabad Airport 16.7 degrees

    Reply

  89. Tamil astrologers expect very good rains for tamil nadu & chennai this year(from today till april 2015) as this is manmadha year(good for rains)

    Reply

  91. I think it would be better for monitoring the strengthening of a storm rather than watching storms movement…..

    Now a days it became very difficult to track the storms….Also it is becoming tough for the heavy cumulous clouds to move…

    I mean….these storms extending towards areas where strengthening conditions are prevailing

    Reply

  93. One intresting fact happen last June 29 2014
    Rainfall figure
    Saidapet 46mm
    Guindy43 mm
    Nandambakkam 3mm
    Pour 55 mm

    Reply

  95. Monsoon calling

    ———————————–

    Searching for perfection – “Indian Monsoon is always “ifs and buts” – I have taken points from BL

    ==========================================

    Monsoon is generated from a seasonal reversal of trade winds in the southern hemisphere, dictated by the northward movement of the sun. Being a global phenomenon, it is influenced by what happens in large water bodies such as the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean (El Nino-La Nina and the Indian Ocean Dipole, for instance).

    The IMD is now working on the National Monsoon Mission (NMM). Under the mission, the IMD will collaborate with weather research organisations nationally as well as internationally to improve monsoon forecasting. “The NMM aims to improve models for short (12-72 hours), medium (72-240 hours), extended (10-30 days) and seasonal prediction,” says D Sivanand Pai, Head, Long Range Forecasting Division, IMD, Pune.

    NMM”s focus is on developing a dynamic model (dynamic because it is not based on set parameters) for monsoon prediction and ₹400 crore has been earmarked for it over five years. Dynamic models simulate sea and atmospheric conditions and are acknowledged the most dependable across the world. But they are still in the experimental stage when it comes to the Indian monsoon and need a lot more investigating and research. “It is still in research mode. The Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology is the main coordinator and is interacting with US agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). We are trying to improve forecast across the seasonal model and make it suitable for Indian conditions,” says Pai.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/monsoon/article7099196.ece?homepage=true&theme=true

    Reply

  97. Celsius dips but city gets little rain

    City residents had two reasons to cheer on Monday: a dip in day temperature and arrival of Krishna water from Andhra Pradesh (A.P.).

    However, rains that played hide-and-seek over the city on Sunday night left residents disappointed the next morning. An upper air cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and its neighbourhood brought rain to many parts of the State, however. The overcast sky brought down the temperature in the city to 33.6 degrees Celsius, one degree Celsius below the average.

    Weather blogger S. Velayudham said areas along Rajiv Gandhi Salai and East Coast Road recorded up to 2 cm of rainfall till Monday morning.

    The meteorological department expects thundershowers over some areas of the city on Monday night. But, localities in the interior areas will have an edge over coastal parts in this rain spell. In Chennai, light showers may last till Wednesday.

    The city will also enjoy some respite from the looming water crisis as Krishna water released from Kandaleru reservoir in A.P. reached the State’s border in Uthukottai, Tiruvallur district, on Monday afternoon.

    “We have received 150 cubic feet per second (cusecs) of water and expect the volume to go up to 500 cusecs. The water will reach Poondi reservoir on Tamil New Year’s Day and be taken to reservoirs in Chembarambakkam and Red Hills. From there, it will be distributed to residents,” said an official.

    City residents may enjoy moderate weather with the maximum temperature predicted to be around 33 degrees Celsius till Wednesday.

    Reply

  98. due to this heavy rains on june 28 2014 this happenedhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Chennai_building_collapse

    Reply

  99. Worst hailstorms again near markapuram….
    and many other places……they r killing innocent farmers…….It better if no rains like this in summer…..so that no deaths due to lightening anymore..4 people belonging to same family were badly hurted down to lightening yesterday

    Reply

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