Another tropical disturbance in the Arabian Sea has shown signs of development and it is expected to intensify into Deep Depression in the next 24-48hrs. TN interiors and Coastal pockets have been getting good rainfall for the past two days. Isolated heavy rainfall would occur in one or two places over Western districts of Coimbatore, Nilgiris and Erode. Amongst the coastal regions, Nagaipattinam, Tuticorin & Ramanathpuram also would see some moderate to heavy falls. North coastal districts like Chennai, Tiruvallur, and Kanchipuram would also see isolated rainfall activity around noon.
.
Northeast Monsoon rainfall is expected to turn active from November 7th with a possible disturbance evolving in SE bay and it might enthrall us during the Deepavali celebrations. The conditions in the bay are being closely monitored over the developments.
Max temp is expected to be one or two degree above normal along major parts of Peninsular India and this includes Tamil Nadu cities as well.
Rainfall warning for District(s):
Coimbatore, Erode, Nilgris, Nagai, Ramnathapuram, Tuticorin, Vellore, Chennai, Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur might see isolated heavy rainfall.
KeaWeather Archives 
What is this, ecmwf is completely playing with us, oh god please show some mercy, what forced ecmwf to change it forecast I don’t know, is it due to wd but wd is far high in latitude and also ecmwf expecting only our weaker system this is ridiculous
Y r u believing ECWMF or GFS
GFS!
Another Arabian sea stealer!
Light rain in Perumbakkam
gud morning gys 😉
Yesterday night 1 cm now 14 cm reach this year nem
Accuweather predicting nearly 630mm for chennai till nov 30 2015
Lol. Accuweather ah irundhalum kaeka nalla dhan iruku xD
6 mm here yesterday from passing showers. 2 mm from afternoon one and 4 mm overnight. The overnight one was super heavy and it rained only for about a minute or two . 112 mm for Nov so far
If the system moves towards Srilanka then all know the result , what would happen last week
Kochi 93mm
Trichy 62mm
Bangalore 33mm
Cbe 25mm
OMG Extremely hvy rains reported in erode salem karur namakkal dist watchout for big nos
Ammapet salem report 195mm
Erode dist battered
Western districts geting battered like anything….nem rocking 😍😍😍
Seems One of best days for tn yesterday all interior areas have been pounded
omg? ecm itself fooled us?
real nem never started…..
Real nem will start from 8/9 November.
CMC is the only model which shows landfall near Chennai. The others take it way below . But i guess the position of formation matters a lot not to worry for now
CMC is Whistle Blower’
Not going to happen in 3 days!
Thats true too. This is more of a wishful thinking.
Let Us See 12 PM ECMWF Update!!!
Looks Like 93B Repeat? Then No NEM Will Be There For Chennai Till 15th NOV?
Something wrong in last night’s run, will improve :p
Enna ecmwf consistent oooo
overnight train in western ghats around coimbatore…
Kalingarayan in Erode dt. – 117 mm
Jon is right it has literally poured everywhere in interior TN
AS expected by GFS, this is yesterday GFS
Good morning!
Good morning
If GFS run comes true we will get battered!
If ECMWF run comes also we will get good rains but not like what gfs expecting!
Looks like another battle on the cards
GFS vs ECMWF
Ya!
Of course!
Massive Rains in Chennai Lakes and surrounding Region, ending 8.30 am on 04.11.2015
===================================
Redhills and Chembarabakkam gets 150 cusecs inflow and Poondi Lake gets 100 cusecs inflow.
in mm
Thamaraipakkam – 92
Ellapuram – 91
Sriperumbudur – 87
Poondi Lake – 75
Poonamalle Agro – 68
Uthukottai – 63
Thiruvalangadu – 58
Nemili – 57
Kaveripakkam – 45
Poonamallee Korattur Anaicut- 38
Cholavaram Lake – 31
Arakonam – 27
Red Hills – 24
Avadi – 22
Tiruvallur – 17
Chengalpattu – 13
Tiruttani – 10
R.K.Pet – 9
Poonamalle – 8
Palavedu – 7
Katupakkam – 6
Chembarabakkam – 5
Thirukalukundram – 5
Holiday declared for schools in Ariyalur district due to heavy rains
Going by jon comments almost all Western dist will declare holiday
NAVY NRL 95A- 30knots
Finally, ECMWF choked as expected! Pity its followers.
Flash Alert 😁!!!
Some widespread Rains expected for Chennai by tomorrow
How
Uac expected in sw bay by tomorrow . It will trigger some ts
WML over Arabian sea will weaken by two days . Named system possible for Tamilnadu only
OMG..again convection is back for Arabian system 😦
No worries
As said yesterday, Arabian system will strengthen further and turn as cyclone.
Good morning. .
The well marked low pressure area in the eastcentral Arabian sea is strengthening into Depression.Intensification chance is High. upper air circulation over bay of bengal off Andhra pradesh coast still persists.
So rather heavy to heavy rain is expected in north interior Tamilnadu,western Tamilnadu,central interior Tamilnadu and parts of southern Tamilnadu in 24 hrs.
Many places in north interior and western Interior Tamilnadu received heavy downpour yesterday.
Parts of Chennai may receive light to medium rain today.Chennai is expected receive heavy rain after 9th nov.
It seems that all regions of TN has got some ws rains except extreme northern dist.still now NEM has taken form of SWM
oh ecmwf reduced the intensity of diwali system to depression..so thats y comments r turning against ecmwf.
no not it taking it to srilanka 😦
It is heading for us?
it will be a cyclone for sure heading twrds central-n.tn
expecting a cyclone in upcoming ecmwf run
Will not happen from ecmwf..if that happens ver happy,
it is good if it turns out to be depression! Depression will dump a lot more rain than a storm.
Wow !!.. ECMWF merely reduce it to a low near tip of srilanka… Next update will show like a easterly wave I guess.. 3 day consistency of ECMWF is broken today..
in Ariyalur schools are declared holiday.
In namakkal dist many lakes got filled due to yesterdays rain it seems
When is the next ECMWF run?
11:30am
We ll know the fate then..if this continues only drizzles in chennai
Might be today ecmwf run same as yesterday run…
I am expecting good spell for chennai today.
Wlll Arab system become as a cyclone?
Sure wth n nxt 48 hrs
no max is dd 😉
Wait and see,becoz there good convection is happening..our bob is very poor than arab
not all the time u knw the ratio if bob host 4 cyclone 1 will host by arb sea .this year its diff.lets see 😉
U r wrong…. Don’t underestimate bay
Gfs run started
waiting 🙂
Expecting light rain here in evening/night.
Hope GFS won’t jump boats now.
850mb mild positive vorticity building up in s.east bay
What about shear and sst status???
fav
Then u ecmwf struggling to take that strong system
*y
Atchu, oceanic conditions will not change much , it would have been changed because of some unfavorable atmospheric conditions expected. We ‘ll wait for the next run.
Ok gts
Arab System dissipates and a system dumps lot of rain in NTN
http://www.bbc.com/weather/1264527
why now on 93B
93B ah?
this shows 28 oct 2015
bro ,open it in new tab
oh yeah…ithu veraya but one thing sel another circulation in SL might pull this down ?
two vortices..might merge into one and s.east bay vortex might dominate
cn u gues in which direction it will mve ?
Looks better marked.
Perfect!!
If the equatorial eddy grows up in size , our system can be pushed up in latitude, which can turn favorable.
yeah we need a system in south as well..we r missing that
Feel too much of a surge in northern hemisphere is exerting pressure on vortices to stay low in latitude. If it is equally from south as well, then it should be good.
The anticyclonic gyre aloft at 200 hPa which was seen having a larger spatial extent yesterday is back to normal scale and the ridge line is constant along 15 N latitude as of now without much of a break.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_200wind.htm
Reports of heavy rains from Virudunagar dt y’day, also Ariyalur dt schools declared holiday for today
Back to Chennai Today Morning from Kodaikanal. Sunny and Misty.
Kodai is just awesome
Did u Visit Rat tail and Bearshola falls there? should be a site to see in full monsoon…
Yeah
Heavy rains in Madhavaram
yeah north looks dark ..mod showers here..
The most reliable Skymet itself has said that Diwali system is going to stay as a LOW, not to intensify.
What else required 🙂
low should stay 3 days near coast….lot of rains happen
so you are accepting skymet is better than kea
Lol……which agency in the world is reliable in weather forecasting?
“A low pressure area is predicted to form on the Bay of Bengal coast around November 8 or November 9. This could intensify and lead to a wet Diwali,“ said Regional Meteorological Centre deputy director general S B Thampi.
According to independent weather blogger Pradeep John, the sea temperature and wind shear is poised to form a system near the Andaman coast. “The surface sea temperature is high at 30°C and it is being accompanied by low wind shear. According to numerical weather models, we are expecting a rapid intensification of a low pressure system that could bring plenty of rain to the city any time soon,“ John said.
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Diwali-likely-to-be-very-damp-squib-warns-05112015002065
Can Nagapatnam receive normal rains this NEM….
Yes surely.
LoW only
looks still land intaraction SL is going to pound again frm this low this low is behaving like 93b .
heavy rains lashing down here in madhavaram wow 🙂
Last Night it was Heavy Rains over Manapparai to Trichy
Asusual Clouds Building up over NE
i am worried on another low near kerala…oh no
Oh ,wt happening?
This might favor coastal areas with WS rains.
yea if going with this pictre again same 93b trk i thnk .hope the system should go to sl.it will be bter to us 😉
sry should not go to srilanka if it wnt to bcme a cyclone *
Dont expect strong system..wml…or d
Don’t even expect rain for ap from this one.
No chance we will get rains..dont worry
haha
some intensificatiojn n north movement
Omg…gfs showing some strength
Good morning sel
What happened?
Seems Nilam like ..
yea vry tough to predict nw all model nw showing diffrent difrent trk with diffrent diffrent intensity .anna cn u say which model prdicted 93b trk corectly ?
93 B was a tough one , all models went confused.
super knock by dhawan
it is called super nick
timing reply
Super duck by dhawan
Some twist is there?
Whatever the twist, Pondy is going to get pounded!
It all depends where this would get placed. Low latitude maintained with more west movement. Anything can happen as along as it stays in open waters.
s.ind ocean la onnu vanduchu..typical mjo circulations
Yeah varudhu, aana timing change aana nalla irukkum.
Raining in Ambattur
raining heavily in anna nagar now
If current gfs comes true, widespread very heavy rainfall possible for continuous 3 days…
hope it will intensify than expected
Do you trust gfs?
we have to support model which gives us good forecast
i m looking for a consensus on intensification..now both the models r in agreement.
How? Ecmwf reduced the intensity!
what ecmwf showed 5 days bfore, will happen.
What did it show? Don’t remember
Cat 1 jupi
mslp 997MB
Oh ok thanks
no selva, u r changing and started trusting GFS 🙂 🙂
lol..ecmwf accuracy is way far ahead than any other models.. none could match it
Gfs track changed
Whch track gfs showing?
Intensify and staying near tamilnadu for Atleast 4 days
Gfs confused then.
Until a proper center or a firm vortex is located fluctuations are bound to happen.
Valid point
Agreed. however, center has more importance when system intensifies more than WML
Yeah exactly, and that is why I said we have to look for a proper center or a firm vortex as a whole.
Absolute deluge for Chennai: GFS
high intensity showers here..turning heavy
Real time tracking of such case studies will be even more interesting. I think this might be just another system to learn carefully.
Rain clouds nearing tambaram.Getting darker..
heavy passing showers here
heavy showers here too
it wont last long
Drizzling started on tambaram
passing shower turning to be pounding rain
it wont last long
mouth clean pannu pa
im saying the fact
Hi Guys.. Back to this blog after a gap of 3 years … Could see lot of new names and few old fellow mates !!
welcome back
Hi Ehsan.. This is Aruns1411 … Lot of changes in your website and it is looking much better than it was during 2008 , 2009 .. !! Well done ! ..
Hi 🙂
Hi Jupijove… Hope Sel, Original dash, Jon from St. thomas mount are still there.. ?
all still here. Dash mystery remains unsolved
unsolved
How about Pulicat mani ? is he still here ?
sorry I dont recollect you
hmm… its ok.. 3 years of gap makes a huge difference probably, if you have the old database, please check the blogs by the name Aruns1411..
well,i could remember. hope you’re doing good
Yes dude !! How are you doing ?
yeah good
Welcome!!!
thnx !!
lot better than yesterday
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
it is changing everyday .no use of tracking
yeah….963B-it started with chennai & went away. for thislow, it started NE first , now inclining towards T.N coast
*93B
As expected 30,000 cusecs inflow in hogenakkal
Rain will help calming down cauvery issue
cloud burst here, extreme rr
yeah DD
Selva any idea, what is the max rr recorded ?
no sir.
dd?
extreme? 500 mm/hr ?
can be
super enjoy…how long it is been raining
10+ mins
New popups over Chennai city and suburbs
Absolutely pouring in perambur!!!
carnage here
video ?
When do we see first proper rain band from SE to Chennai in radar this season ? monday ?
8th.
Anna salai bright sunshine. sheer nonsense weather pattern.
ss
something is not going your way this season suresh
first of all still real NEM has not arrived.
Omg pouring here
NW & W looks dark..
any rain in KDM /CHoolaimedu areas??
No, bright sun shine..some clouds developing in east..let c
Very heavy rain!
Now reduced
10 secs heavy rain ?
even 1 sec is heavy rain
Again pouring
Heavy now in kk ngr
Nothing here yet ( Manapakkam ) other than cloudy skies
deepak will be in school..otherwise comments will be full flow by him now..
Intensity fluctuating
Still pouring
Chennai should start getting its share from the new system in the bay from Friday night / saturday morning..
Getting darker in Vandalur
Jupi, here the clouds over valsaravakkam ..Massive from here..
Now moderate rain
22mm here
Omg!
Thala reading
dont know about thala reading
LOL, how can you call that carnage?
within 12 mins
22 in 3-4 mm is carnage. 15 min is moderate rain
5mm at villivakkam
core storm skipped vlkm, kolathur couldve got more
still it’s raining here. very decent intensity