Heavy Rains to continue across interior Tamil Nadu

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation(UAC) over east central Arabian Sea off Karnataka Coast continues to persist and is seen extending up to 3.1 km above sea level. Under its influence a Low Pressure area could form in the same area within the next 12-24 hours. Meanwhile, further to the east and north in the Bay of Bengal, another UAC is seen to persist near North Andhra Pradesh coast. Under the combined influence of these two circulations and the seasonal (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone/Seasonal Trough)ITCZ seen located in the region, the atmospheric flow patterns in the south peninsular region would continue to support convective cloud formations leading to Thunderstorms and rains across much of interior TN , south interior Karnataka and parts of Rayalaseema during the next 24 -36 hours. Meanwhile, the extreme south east Bay and the adjoining Andaman Sea is kept on a watch for a probable genesis of a “Tropical Low”.

sector-wv

ezindia1_day2

Heavy Rainfall Districts:

Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Erode, Salem, Dharmapuri, Karur, Dindugul, Theni, Krishnagiri.

Moderate Rainfall Districts:

Delta districts, Chennai, Kanchipuram, Vellore, Thiruvallur, Villupuram, Thiruvanamalai.

City Forecasts:

Chennai will be cloudy, isolated areas may experience moderate rains, max. temp will be settling around 31 C

Madurai will have cloudy skies and rains could be expected in isolated places. Max. will be close to 29 – 30 C

Vellore will stay cooler at 29 – 30 C. Rains/Thundershowers expected in some parts of the city.

Coimbatore can experience some Thundershowers and day time max. will stay around 30 – 31 C

Trichy can expect some rains/Thundershowers and maximum temperature will hover around 31 C

2,190 thoughts on “Heavy Rains to continue across interior Tamil Nadu

  1. The weather connundrum.. The MJO and IOD drive the systems forward.. the SOI has probably a big role in determining where the systems go.. NAP, SAP/NTN or mid TN/lower. And as the systems take their time to make their way, western disturbances 2000 KM north may drive storms off, and stubborn HPAs in the southern penninsula may bring in winter like situations.. while rogue Arabian sea systems may throw another spanner in the works.

    Yet… it rains in Chennai during NeM. I take that back.. it may rain in Chennai during NEM

    All I want is a simple easterly..

  2. CFS (v2) also in line with 2 back to back systems that both with same genesis point (at SC-BOB) and with same landfall points at NTN/SAP. If this forecast turns true then it will be too good for Chennai🙂

  3. Gfs falls in line with ecmwf on system in terms of location and time period . Track may still come in for change as well. As usual the king leads.

  4. Gfs vazhiku vanthutan….. Watchout for system…
    Landfall probability
    Stn – 10%
    Central tn- 35%
    North tn – 45%
    South ap – 10%

  5. Moderate to Heavy Rains overnight. Rains started around 8pm and slowed down by 5am. Very cold morning in Kodaikanal

    • You missed the heavy rain in Ambattur yesterday mouli. My mom told it rained for one and half hour heavily. My street totally flooded. If you were in Ambattur i could have known the rainfall amount yestetday

  6. Yesterday Storms moved North to south. The Convection over Nellai dist was there over Dindugal and Theni dist overnight

  7. Slowly Steadily Models Showing!!! Positive Forecasts!!! GFS and ECMWF rendum namma katchi !!! So Now We Are ECMGFS Fans Like Thalathalapathi Fans! Best Spell Of The Season Could Start From 10th to 20th !!! Hope We GetAtleast 300 mm From This 10 Days! Have Whatever Expectations If It Is Expected To Happen In Reality Because This Is Our Monsoon.We Don’t Have Any other Monsoon to have expectations…

  8. Good morning. .

    Low pressure area over Arabian sea off coastal Karnataka is becoming well marked low pressure area.And upper air circulation over bay of bengal off north Andhra coastal area still persists.
    Under the influence of above factors,many parts of north interior Tamilnadu ,western interior Tamilnadu and some parts of coastal and south Tamilnadu,Delta districts would have medium to rather heavy rain today.

    Another good news is that a low pressure system is expected form after 10th nov and move towards Tamilnadu.As many factors are favoring a cyclogenesis and some weather models are picking up this system and steering to Tamilnadu.What ever it is ,another 10 days going to be wet days for many parts of Tamilnadu.
    Many parts of North west Chennai received heavy rain yesterday and skipped other parts of city with a drizzle.
    Many parts of Western interior ,Interior Tamilnadu also had good rain.
    Further forecast favors north and western interior Tamilnadu.Heavy to very heavy rain may experience at some places there.

  9. Massive Rains in Karnataka after long long break, Low pressure forms of Karnataka Coast. Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 03.11.2015
    ===================================
    A low pressure area has formed over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and the associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. The system would become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.

    in mm (min 40 mm)

    Kere – 215
    Sapangiramanagar – 135
    Manki – 120
    Saluru – 118
    Pulagurukote – 111
    Dodabelvangala – 105
    Kabala – 103
    Mithabagilu – 100
    T Hosahalli – 95
    Bengaluru City – 95
    Mastanhalli – 88
    Bekalalle – 88
    KrishnaRajapura – 88
    Buchukkuru – 82
    Satanoor – 79
    Jangamakote – 79
    Mavathur – 79
    Durgire – 78
    Dummenhalli – 76
    Bhadravathi – 75
    Kaiwara – 75
    Hirehalli – 69
    Bengaluru Hal AP – 66
    Huliyurdurga – 63
    Ramanagara – 63
    Yadakola – 62
    Chelur – 61
    Thippasandra – 60
    Magadi – 58
    Navilooru – 56
    Shirali – 57
    Bengaluru KIAL – 57
    Banavasi – 57
    Lingadahalli – 57
    Hassan – 57
    Nelamangala – 56
    Irrigampalli – 56
    Kengeri – 54
    Santhepet – 52
    Kumta – 52
    Settykere – 52
    Thippagondanahalli – 51
    Shimoga – 50
    Tavarekere – 49
    Bheraya – 49
    Arendur – 48
    Honavar – 48
    Kotagal – 47
    Mayasandra – 47
    Manchanbele – 46
    Bukkapatna – 46
    Chickkanayakanahalli – 45
    Agumbe – 45
    Begur – 45
    Bhatkal – 45
    Ganjigunte – 45
    Byramangala – 44
    Sarjapura – 43
    Chikkanahalli – 43
    Nonavinakere – 43
    Hunsehalli – 43
    Sadali – 42
    Kudur – 42
    Thumbadi – 40
    Darinayakanapalya – 40
    Bagepalli – 40
    Gubbi – 40
    Halkurke – 40
    Gersoppa – 40
    Birunani – 40

  10. I feel ECMWF followers will be taught a good lesson in a day or two. ECMWF will fail big time with this system as its genesis itself is a day away. Rains are confirmed for next week but not under the hyped impression of ECMWF!

  11. Sub tropical system moving in s.hemisphere along 110E affecting darwin pressure and moreover mjo moving into central,eastern part influencing the pressure across indonesia adj areas so we might see the increase in soi values as pressure is dipping here.. so what we are seeing is the effect caused by two diff tropical and sub tropical system ,definitely not the cause..

      • sir there is lot of complex feedback coupled in it..During elnino,there will be anomalous increase in surface pressure across w.pac, s.asia adj maritime countries and decrease in pressure across east pacific. so we negative SOI values during el nino ..not only due to elnino induced descending walker circulation, there will also be increase in pressure when central pacific host tropical systems .so this would decrease the rainfall here.. but when intraseasonal oscillation like mjo moves in ,they alter the pressure pattern .like if it is in indian ocean, they reduce the pressure here , subsequently increase the rainfall and at the same time there will b anomalous increase in pressure along w.pacific,central regions reducing the rainfall there.. we will see rainfall in all positive or negative soi cases provided there is an mjo or other wave comes in

      • positive soi which is the result of lanina creates low pressure across south,s.east asia trigger convection even without the support from other waves

  12. Ha..ha..whether it’s cause or result. No problem. SOI is the digital value for the atmospheric response. So no worries🙂

  13. When MJO stays in a Phase for longer time, it has to produce cyclogenesis, that is what happening with Diwali system, it should cross SAP-NTN coast, as i was saying this for the past few days. I also mentioned about 93B not going to become a strong one in Bay since MJO was in Phase 2 till 31st and moving to Phase 3 by 31st Oct to 01st Nov, by the same time 93B has weakened to UAC and moved to Arabian Sea, hence no impact happened in Bay.

    The upcoming Diwali system developing in perfect time as the MJO is in Phase 3 at the moment, hence no shortage of cyclogenesis. Now nothing can stop this system either Cyclone or a WML, it is going to pour.

    I have mentioned on Monday that we have possibility of TS yesterday and today, it has happened over interiors, city has missed it narrowly, today also we have chance for TS forming, lets see how much we get out of it. Cheyyar got non stop rain for 6 hours yesterday.

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/north_interior_tamil_nadu_to_get_very_heavy_rainfall/#comment-2338801734

    • Nellai dist declared today for school and colleges. It is really surprising to me it rained so much there

  14. At last the Bay of Bengal is cleared to welcome the big ones to attack the east coast……… Along with daily dose of rains

  15. MJO/CCKW at phase 3 always may not supportive for healthy cyclogenesis. For this BOB-04B in 2014 (November 5-8) is perfect example. Paul-roundy indicated about cyclogenesis well in advance for this system. All models including GFS and ECMWF indicated very strong cyclone (cat.3 or above). As per these models forecast, very strong convection spread entire BOB that can be able to produce 2 super cyclones. Unfortunately this convection even struggled to intensify beyond DD and died close to AP coast even without making landfall. All parameters are simply super conductive. But only one parameter SOI (forget about its genesis) started decreasing. I observed almost for all systems the increase in SOI doing lot of favour to grow into rain-bearing strong systems. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#/media/File%3ABOB04_2014_track.png

    • I still remember those few days how bloggers were in anxiety on that system and you explanation on SOI.. Unforgettable disappointment was that one!!

      • It’s got delayed. At the time of 93B, SOI decreased hence not supportive for its strength. But still I hadn’t lost faith about Chennai system yet. It will turn true.

    • although we anticipate low shear values ,but generally during initial stage of cyclogeneis increase in shear at lower level (600-925hpa) is a necessary thing to increase the horizontal vorticity.

  16. Blog will become active again from today and will continue until landfall or end with dissapointment if nothing forms

  17. Today evening at 3 P.M, there is a live Q & A interview with Mr.Ramanan, in the Thanthi T.V, regarding rains, and predictions- source Thanthi T.V

      • there is an old saying in Tamil, that “Mazhai varuvathum, Makkat pirappum Mahesan Kaiyil” meaning that, the fate of rains and a new born child is in the hand of God, i feel there is no need to criticize any one for failure in predictions, instead we can improve our knowledge further, when we interact with the people like Mr. Ramanan

      • Questions can be raised easily, but when it comes to reality and if we place ourselves in his position , we ‘ll come to know the challenges. Simply because he represents IMD in this region, he faces all sorts of criticism. Definitely, this field is seeing very good improving conditions, and so will be the impression on people who work in it.

      • Well said GTS even in our own blog we have predicted rains, but not a drop has happened, nature is unpredictable ,and committing or speaking on behalf of a Govt organisation is not all that easy, since IMD may even answerable to parliament at times. I have listened to him addressing college and school students many a times and he has fairly good knowledge as an individual . Last but not least I always remember every time Akbar and Birbal stories

      • Yes sir, when we discussed with him several times in person as well as over phone , he never hesitates to explain to our doubts and he has also encouraged us several times. He has shared us many online sources from where we learnt a lot.

  18. There is a huge difference in ECMWF and GFS in terms of LF date.

    Both shows the LF near Chennai, but ECMWF says the LF on 09th, whereas GFS says by 12th. By seeing OLR forecast of CFS, i could see the it matching with GFS LF Date. Even CFS indicates the LF on 11th or 12th only.

  19. 1994-Severe cyclonic storm-03B, which crossed at Chennai has similar type (just like 2015) MJO loop at phase 2. In fact at present MJO is making this loop with higher intensity than 1994. So anything can happen to make this tropical system to a significant one.

    As a strong sigh of relief IOD decreased (similar to 1994) and SOI started increasing, which is crucial factor regarding our BOB-pulse.

    1994-SCS-03 track: http://s3.postimg.org/4159t7ac3/Cyclone_04_B_1994_track.png

    1994-SCS-03B-MJO: http://s4.postimg.org/dsoat0ohp/1994.gif

    2015-latestMJO forecast: http://s29.postimg.org/f3lu1s4if/MJO_2015.gif

  20. After a long time ,waiting for a cyclone to cross chennai. But, as usual ,always ready for any dis-appointment..

  21. Whether it’s double vortex or triple vortex, no need to worry all these vortexes will merge and become single ultimate vortex. One has to note down the difference between 93B and coming system. It’s just IOD and SOI. This time IOD decreased to facilitate BOB system, which would get good support from strong trade winds with increase in SOI. For 93B both these IOD and SOI turned negative.

  22. I dont know why people want cyclones which cause wide spread damages even though they give rain. Instead what we need is more of depressions and DDs etc . Ultimately rain counts.

  23. Good morning
    Latest satellite pic shows convective development off Aceh Sumatra! Expected to develop into a big one!

  24. GFS still keeping the WML in GOM and NTN till 10th November.
    System LF might be after Diwali only, not before that, it cannot form rapidly as per ECMWF, as it says LF by 09th as a minimal cyclone, that is too fast for any cyclone formation from LOW. Hence it will happen after Diwali only.

    • India is polluted 365 days a year by vehicles, industries and what not. Why so much fuss about a single day of cracker pollution

      • not only noise. even others. Mobile towers have chased away honey bees and sparrows. Did we ever stop using mobile🙂

      • after pollution and sound of Diwali gets over, the birds will return the next day, but by mobile towers we lost sparrows and other birds, so lets stop the blind faith on pollution created during Diwali celebrations.

      • We have polluted the world in many ways.why to continue even for Diwali. Let us take pledge not to burst crackers to keep ground water clean.

      • you can take pledge on so many useless days But by taking pledge on diwali you are definitely spoiling the lives of thousands of sivakasi labourers…

      • BTW, My native is sivakasi. I know their sufferings. Child labour and how many people die every year making crackers. Few companies they make money and they know how to find alternate work.

      • Why cant you switch off your mobile phones in new year day and sit and enjoy with your family it can reduce noise pollution to birds??

      • i Feel there is a strong illusion maintained in the society that crackers pollute the environment.. Yes i agree but Things like mobile towers dish tv’s are regularly causing noise pollution to the birds…

      • It’s a long endless topic.. one fesv won’t make more r less pollution.. Stop using vehicles for short journeys like shopping.. Nowadays many ppls don’t like walking for a 100mtr distance also..

  25. where gone all the rains. chennai dry for the past 2-1/2. days. what was the rainfall figures yesterday evening. any updates??
    ss

  26. earlier the decibels of crackers were high, also we use the crackers, almost for one week before, and after diwali, never felt polluted those days, also we have seen lot of birds and animals, insects, which went extinct now, is crackers is the only reason for all these,?

    • one dist is earning their bread with this. why shd we beat their stomach. apart from this, its the tradition, we shd not break

    • THIS
      DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
      LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
      ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
      FURTHER CONSOLIDATION

  27. one more bigger system, coming up ( JTWC notified) in arabian sea. will it have some impact for our rains ?? Unfortunate – not useful for indian land.
    ss

    • please clarify in my experience, i had not seen the weather pattern we observe for the past 5 days in chennai ( last 30 years) winds erratic, rainfall movement all the more erratic and massive thundershowers west of city, no big easterly cloud pattern. what is the reason for this ??

      • unsettled atmospheric conditions.

        LOW in AS has created the unusual wind pattern from SW to NE on Monday, this has bought TS over interiors, then wind changeover yesterday, as i have predicted this on Monday itself, since the wind has changed more unsettled weather pattern created TS over interiors again and gave heavy rainfall.

      • acceptable points. now what is the position. NEM type of weather is back at chennai and other coastal pockets?

  28. both IMD & vagaries not reporting about any proposed system in bay for the next 5 days. only arabian sea looks like developing. at least we can get some afternoon thundershowers.

    Yesterday poondi reporte 85 MM arakonam more than 100 followed by many weather stations ranging from 10 to 100 good news for lakes.

    ss

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